Group 1 - The current silver price is $36.76 per ounce, with a trading range between $36.64 and $36.86 during the day [1][2] - The strong U.S. dollar is putting downward pressure on silver prices, as investors flock to the dollar amid trade uncertainties [3][4] - The market is facing unpredictability due to conflicting ideologies between Trump's protectionist policies and Musk's advocacy for free trade, which may complicate silver's role as a hedge [4] Group 2 - Analysts warn that if silver fails to hold the short-term pivot at $36.30, it could lead to a price drop to the major support range of $35.40 to $34.87 [5] - The market is currently experiencing profit-taking pressure, similar to gold, as investors reassess their positions ahead of clarity on U.S. trade policies and Federal Reserve actions [5] - The medium-term trend remains supported by the 50-day moving average at $34.50 and the 200-day moving average at $32.40, maintaining a "buy on dips" strategy [5]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a slight increase, reaching $3345.71 per ounce, reflecting a 0.3% rise, influenced by the interplay between the US dollar and risk aversion sentiment [1] - The announcement of Trump's tariff policy led to a significant drop in US stocks, which in turn spurred a rapid increase in gold prices due to heightened demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, indicating a strategic emphasis on gold as a key asset amid global economic uncertainties [1] Market Dynamics - As the largest gold consumer globally, China's continuous gold purchases provide crucial support for gold prices, especially in light of potential global trade tensions stemming from Trump's tariff policies [2] - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting minutes and speeches from various officials for insights into monetary policy, with a high probability of maintaining interest rates in July at 95% and a 60% chance of a rate cut in September [2] Technical Analysis - Current gold market trends indicate an upward price movement, with strategies suggesting support for long positions and resistance for short positions [6] - The MACD indicator shows upward momentum, although market activity appears to be decreasing, suggesting a cautious trading approach [6] Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategy includes placing a short position around $3339 with a stop loss at $3346 and a take profit target in the $3310-$3300 range [7]

Fundamental Analysis - Trump's tariff policy has triggered increased demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a significant drop in U.S. stock markets and a subsequent rebound in gold prices [3] - The People's Bank of China has continued to increase its gold reserves for the eighth consecutive month, indicating a strategic emphasis on gold as a long-term asset [3] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are closely monitored, with a 95% probability of maintaining rates in July and a 60% chance of a rate cut in September, influenced by inflation concerns [3] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold showed a rebound after a dip, indicating relative strength and potential for further upward movement if it breaks through resistance at 3365/3366 [4] - The four-hour chart suggests that gold is in a corrective phase, with the potential for a third wave of upward movement if it holds above the support level of 3296 [6] - Key support levels to watch include 3321 and 3315, while resistance levels are identified at 3365/3366 and 3374 [6]

Group 1 - The latest initial jobless claims data indicates a decline to 233,000, the lowest in six weeks, which is below the market expectation of 240,000, suggesting some stability in the labor market [1][2] - However, the continuing claims remain high at 1.964 million, the highest level since fall 2021, raising concerns about the quality and stability of employment [1][2] - The disparity between initial claims decreasing and continuing claims increasing points to a deeper issue regarding job quality and the difficulty of re-employment for those laid off [2][3] Group 2 - The persistent high level of continuing claims suggests that the job market is transitioning from a "job scarcity" phase to a "job matching difficulty" phase, indicating a mismatch in labor supply and demand [2][3] - Structural challenges in certain industries, such as manufacturing, technology, and real estate, contribute to the high continuing claims, as workers find it hard to secure new jobs in different sectors [2][3] - The high continuing claims data adds uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, as it may influence their assessment of the labor market's true condition [2][3][4] Group 3 - From a consumer perspective, job stability directly impacts spending willingness and confidence, with high continuing claims potentially suppressing consumer spending among lower-income groups [4] - The ongoing employment pressure, despite easing inflation, may increase financial burdens on residents, further hindering growth in the service and retail sectors [4] - Policymakers need to consider multiple dimensions of labor market data, as the divergence in employment statistics complicates future policy directions [4]

Group 1 - The June non-farm payroll data revealed a complex resilience in the U.S. labor market, prompting a reassessment of Federal Reserve policy paths [2] - The non-farm employment population increased by 147,000, exceeding the expected 110,000, with the previous value revised from 139,000 to 144,000, marking the fourth consecutive month of surpassing economists' predictions [3] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% and previous value of 4.2%, remaining stable within a narrow range of 4.0%-4.2% since May 2024 [3] Group 2 - Average hourly wage growth showed a moderate slowdown, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% and previous value of 0.4%; year-on-year growth was 3.7%, slightly down from the expected 3.9% and revised previous value of 3.8% [6] - The report indicated a combination of strong employment and moderate wage growth, suggesting a vibrant labor market while alleviating inflation concerns [6] - Long-term unemployed individuals increased by 190,000 to 1.6 million, accounting for 23.3% of the total unemployed, indicating underlying structural issues in the labor market [6] Group 3 - Following the data release, financial markets adjusted rapidly, with the dollar index rising by 0.47% to 97.308, while spot gold fell by $19 to $3,328.04 per ounce, a decrease of 0.65% [8] - The expectations for Federal Reserve policy shifted significantly, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 98% to 80% after the data release [11] - Despite the reduced likelihood of immediate rate cuts, the overnight index swap market still indicates over 70% chance of a rate cut before September, reflecting a long-term expectation for policy easing [11] Group 4 - Employment growth in June showed a pattern of "government strong, private weak," with government jobs increasing by 73,000, primarily in state and local education sectors, while the federal government cut 7,000 jobs [12] - The private sector added 74,000 jobs, below the expected 100,000, with notable growth in healthcare and social assistance, but overall performance was weaker than anticipated [12] - Analysts noted that the report did not provide an urgent reason for the Federal Reserve to cut rates immediately, emphasizing the ongoing strength in employment data [15] Group 5 - Goldman Sachs lowered its U.S. Treasury yield forecasts despite the June non-farm data easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates, predicting year-end yields of 3.45% for two-year and 4.20% for ten-year Treasuries [16] - The firm highlighted that government hiring driving growth and a slight decline in labor participation rate weakened the perceived strength of the data [16] - The potential signing of a $3.4 trillion fiscal plan by Trump, including tax cuts, could increase government borrowing but may enhance the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries if achieved through rate cuts [18]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy board member Takeda is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's policies and believes that a severe recession in the U.S. economy is unlikely [1] Group 1 - Takeda emphasizes the importance of observing the Federal Reserve's actions as they could impact global economic conditions [1] - The statement reflects a cautious optimism regarding the resilience of the U.S. economy amidst potential challenges [1]

美联储巴尔金：目前没有改变政策的紧迫性。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant decline in U.S. employment numbers for June, with ADP reporting a decrease of 33,000 jobs, far below the expected increase of 95,000, marking the largest monthly drop since April 2020 [1][2] - The Challenger report indicates that layoffs in June were 48,840, a month-over-month decrease of 48.84% and a slight year-over-year decline of 1.6%, suggesting a reduction in layoff pressures [2] - The labor market's resilience and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance may limit market volatility despite the disappointing ADP data, with attention shifting to the upcoming non-farm payroll report [2][3] Group 2 - In the Eurozone, the unemployment rate slightly increased to 6.3% in May, reflecting uncertainty among European businesses due to tariffs and geopolitical tensions, although overall employment showed a mild increase due to growth in the service sector [6] - The Bank of England faces challenges as market confidence in the UK fiscal situation is reassessed, with concerns about policy continuity and rising expectations for tax increases amid fiscal deficit pressures [7] - The Canadian dollar's outlook improves as trade tensions ease, with optimism surrounding the resumption of trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada, supported by the removal of a digital services tax [8] Group 3 - Japanese manufacturers expect the average USD/JPY exchange rate for the current fiscal year to be 145.87, with the Bank of Japan planning to purchase 325 billion yen of bonds, which may put pressure on the yen [9]

周三（7月2日）现货黄金维持区间整理走势。此前两日金价从近一个月低点反弹，累计录得显著周内涨幅。然而，美元自三年半低点略有回 升，以及市场风险情绪好转，使得金价短线受限。截至发稿，金价报3332.51美元/盎司，跌幅0.17%。 黄金走势分析：黄金价格目前在日线走势上仍暂时维持在宽幅的区间震荡中，价格暂时在3360一带承压。4小时级别走势上金价在连续的高位窄 幅震荡之后技术形态有开始走弱的迹象，短周期均线由前期的向上发散开始逐步放平，连续的小幅冲高回落留下上影线之后在短期走势上的上 涨动能有所不足。小时级别走势上目前的运行空间压缩的非常小，但是在小级别周期走势上连续的震荡之后技术形态有开始走弱的迹象，黄金 行情开始慢慢走出窄幅的震荡区间，关注下短线的调整修复情况。 没有不成功的投资，只有不成功的操作，秦氏金升浸染金融行业十余载，有丰富的实战操盘经验和独特的交易理念，我们拥有全球稳健的交易 系统在这里，对黄金、原油、等投资领域研究多年，具有扎实的理论基础和实战经验，擅长技术面消息面结合式操作，注重资金管理和风险控 制，操作风格稳健果断，以随和负责的性格与犀利果断的操作而被广大投资朋友认可。分析文章只是对市场未来 ...

Group 1 - The JOLTS report indicates that the U.S. labor market remains stable despite economic uncertainties, with job openings unexpectedly rising to 7.769 million in May, surpassing expectations of 7.3 million and the previous month's figure of 7.391 million [1][3] - Job openings have shown volatility, with significant fluctuations of up to 500,000 per month, but have generally stabilized between 7 million and 8 million over the past year [3] - The increase in job openings in May was primarily driven by the leisure and hospitality sector, which accounted for three-quarters of the total openings, while other sectors showed mixed results [3] Group 2 - The number of layoffs decreased to 188,000 in May, with a layoff rate of 1%, indicating a relatively stable labor market [5] - Hiring numbers slightly declined from a peak of 5.615 million to 5.503 million, with the largest decreases observed in healthcare and manufacturing sectors [5] - The number of voluntary resignations increased from 3.215 million to 3.293 million, suggesting a tighter labor market as workers feel confident to seek better opportunities [5] Group 3 - The ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals rose to 1.1, aligning with pre-pandemic levels, marking the first increase in this metric in several months [3] - Economists are closely monitoring the upcoming June non-farm payroll report for signs of labor market slowdown, with expectations of slower job growth and a rising unemployment rate [7] - The JOLTS report is considered a key labor market indicator by policymakers, although some economists question its reliability due to a low response rate in the survey [7]