Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Real Estate Stronger than the Market (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Policy expectations are rising, enhancing the risk-reward ratio for the sector. The Prime Minister emphasized the need for new support measures during a recent survey in Beijing, coinciding with the upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of April. The report suggests that the short-term investment risk-reward ratio for the sector is improving due to potential policy enhancements aimed at boosting domestic demand and supporting the real estate market [2][3] - The report estimates that the potential demand for residential properties in China from 2025 to 2030 is around 876 million square meters, with 2024 sales expected to be 810 million square meters, indicating a significant gap. The promotion of "good houses" is expected to accelerate the release of improvement and replacement demand [2] - Short-term policy and fundamental factors are expected to resonate positively, while the long-term product iteration presents new opportunities. Recommended stocks include companies with strong product capabilities and optimized inventory structures, such as China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments [2] Summary by Sections Policy Environment Monitoring - The Prime Minister highlighted the significant development space in China's real estate market. Recent new policies in cities like Wuxi, Qingdao, and Suzhou aim to stimulate housing demand and support families with multiple children [6] Market Operation Monitoring - Transaction volume remains stable, with new home sales in 50 key cities at 14,000 units, a slight decrease of 0.1% week-on-week. The average daily sales for new homes in April show a year-on-year decline of 22.2% [9][12] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a 3.4% increase in stock prices, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.59%. The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the real estate sector is 35.72, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 12.26, indicating a high valuation relative to historical levels [23][29]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Real Estate Stronger than the Market (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Policy expectations are rising, enhancing the risk-reward ratio for the sector. The government is likely to introduce new support measures, especially with the upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of April. The short-term investment risk-reward ratio for the sector is improving due to potential policy enhancements aimed at boosting housing demand and supporting the market [2][3] - The real estate market still has significant development potential, with a projected demand for residential properties of 876 million square meters from 2025 to 2030. The estimated sales area for 2024 is 810 million square meters, which is below the mid-term demand center. The promotion of "good houses" is expected to accelerate the release of improvement and replacement demand [2] - Short-term policy and fundamental factors are expected to resonate positively, while the long-term product iteration presents new opportunities. Recommended stocks include companies with strong product capabilities and optimized inventory structures, such as China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments [2] Summary by Sections Policy Environment Monitoring - The government emphasizes the significant development space in the real estate market, with new policies introduced in cities like Wuxi, Qingdao, and Suzhou to support housing demand [6] Market Operation Monitoring - Transaction volume remains stable, with new home sales in 50 key cities at 14,000 units, a slight decrease of 0.1% week-on-week. The average daily transaction volume for new homes in April shows a year-on-year decline of 22.2% [9][12] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a 3.4% increase in stock prices, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.59%. The current PE ratio for the real estate sector is 35.72, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 12.26, indicating a high valuation relative to historical levels [23][29]

Core Insights - The real estate industry is undergoing a transformation driven by AI and technological innovations, moving away from traditional growth models towards more precise decision-making and efficient operations [2][3] - The concept of "good houses" has gained prominence, with government reports emphasizing the need for safe, comfortable, green, and smart housing, highlighting the integration of AI technology in this development [3][4] Group 1: AI and Industry Transformation - AI is leveling the playing field among companies, allowing them to compete on a more equal footing, which is crucial in the current historical context [3][6] - The integration of AI can reshape enterprise management through operational innovation, business model innovation, and management innovation [3][6] - The real estate market is shifting from a focus on scale to quality, indicating a transition into a "stock era" for the property industry [6] Group 2: Key Dimensions for "Good Houses" - Achieving "good houses" involves three critical dimensions: digitalization of space, Internet of Things (IoT), and artificial intelligence [3][4] - Digital houses will not only provide physical space but also a digital representation of home devices, enhancing problem-solving efficiency for users [4] - Future homes will feature comprehensive connectivity of devices and appliances, allowing remote control via smartphones [5] Group 3: AI's Role in Property Management - AI is expected to drive the digital transformation of property management, moving from manual processes to a more data-driven approach [6][8] - The property sector is experiencing a shift towards smart management, with AI facilitating predictive maintenance and enhancing service quality [8] - AI tools are being utilized to streamline property information management, although their immediate impact on business operations is still developing [7][8]

21世纪经济报道记者 张敏 深圳报道 天眼查信息显示，今年3月20日，三棵树涂料股份有限公司（以下简称"三棵树公司"）申请注册"三棵树 好房子"商标，国际分类为17-橡胶制品，商标状态为商标注册申请-受理通知书发文。 三棵树公司总部位于福建莆田，创立于2002年，2016年登陆A股，主要产品为建筑涂料，公司曾与多家 房地产企业有过合作。 目前，该项申请仍处于审核状态，但这一动作值得玩味。从市占率看，三棵树公司已是中国涂料品牌的 头部企业，其试图注册"好房子"商标，凸显出"好房子"政策对下游建材企业的带动力。 无独有偶，越秀、绿地等房企近期也纷纷发布产品标准，并表态通过建设"好房子"更好满足市场需求。 在"好房子"首次被写入政府工作报告后，其市场关注度正不断提升。分析人士指出，无论是真正要发力 产品，还是仅仅"蹭热度"，"好房子"出现的频率越高，对行业意味着更多的机会。 官方信息显示，三棵树公司主要生产油漆、胶黏剂、基辅材、防水涂料等建筑涂料，曾在2020年成为中 国奥委会官方涂料独家供应商。自2016年上市以来，三棵树的业绩一度稳定增长，但由于和不少房地产 企业有合作，最近几年开始受到房企流动性危机的拖累。 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the real estate industry, emphasizing a "stabilization" approach to the market in 2025, with a focus on quality housing construction and financial support mechanisms [3][4][6]. Core Insights - The central government aims to stabilize the real estate market through a combination of policies that focus on demand and supply coordination, product quality upgrades, financial support, and risk prevention [4][5][6]. - The introduction of the "good housing" initiative signifies a shift towards high-quality development in the industry, with an emphasis on safety, comfort, and sustainability [7][8]. - The report highlights the importance of local governments in implementing policies that align with central directives, particularly in major cities [12][19]. Policy Overview - The National People's Congress has set the tone for 2025 by emphasizing the need to stabilize the real estate market and promote the construction of quality housing [3][6]. - A series of policies have been introduced to enhance consumer confidence and stimulate housing demand, including tax incentives and adjustments to housing fund policies [8][9]. - Local governments have been proactive, with 66 provinces and cities implementing 124 policies aimed at stabilizing the market in the first quarter of 2025 [12][19]. Market Trends - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with key indicators such as new housing sales and investment levels beginning to recover [21][24]. - The report notes a narrowing decline in housing prices, particularly in first-tier cities, indicating a potential turnaround in market sentiment [27][28]. - The overall housing supply has decreased significantly, with a 29% year-on-year drop in new housing supply in early 2025, reflecting a tightening market [39][42]. Financial Environment - The financial environment for real estate is improving, with measures in place to enhance liquidity for developers and support for quality projects [10][11]. - The central bank and financial regulators are focusing on risk management and innovative financing tools to support the sector's transition [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of digital transformation and technology in driving efficiency and sustainability in the real estate sector [11][12].

作 者丨张敏 编 辑丨张铭心 图 源丨图虫 3月3 1日，住房城乡建设部发布国家标准《住宅项目规范》（以下简称《规范》），并明确规 范将于今年5月1日起施行。新规指出，住宅项目建设应以 安全、舒适、绿色、智慧 为目标。 这也是官方对"好房子"的基本要求。 3月9日，住房和城乡建设部部长倪虹曾透露，住房城乡建设部正在组织编制《"好房子"建设 指南》，修订了《住宅项目规范》，其中一项是要把住宅的层高提高到不低于3米。 最新出台的《规范》，除了设置"层高不低于3米"的要求外，还有多项技术要求，如4 层 及 以 上 住 宅 设 置 电 梯 ； 提 高 墙 体 和 楼 板 隔 声 性 能 ； 提 高 户 门 、 卫 生 间 门 的 通 行 净 宽；提高阳台等临空处栏杆高度；要求公共移动通信信号覆盖到公共空间和电梯轿厢 内 ； 要 求 空 调 室 外 机 安 装 在 专 用 平 台 ； 规 定 了 不 同 气 候 区 供 暖 、 空 调 设 施 设 置 要 求 等。 值得注意的是，这一规范为强制性措施，在工程建设中具有强制约束力。 分析人士指出，这不仅将提高住宅的技术标准，提高居住舒适度，对于产业链的重塑也有着积 极意义 ...

Core Viewpoint - The property industry in 2024 is transitioning from rapid expansion to a focus on "quality and price alignment," with companies adopting strategies like smart renovations and flexible pricing to enhance service transparency and efficiency [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the revenue of Jianfa Property reached 3.29 billion yuan, with a decline of 8%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 323 million yuan, down 31% [2] - The decline in financial data is primarily due to the impact of the "hard decoration business," which is a non-sustainable business that will cease to generate revenue from 2025 [2] - Excluding the hard decoration business, Jianfa Property's revenue for 2024 was 3.27 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 13% [2] - The contribution of the hard decoration business to net profit in 2024 was -0.03 billion yuan, indicating that the sustainable business segments performed better [4] Group 2: Service Quality and Collection Rates - Despite economic fluctuations and collection rate pressures in the property industry, Jianfa Property maintained a collection rate of over 90%, showcasing its operational stability [7] - The high collection rate is attributed to the trust built over years through high-quality service, with Jianfa Property focusing on customer-centric operations [9] - Jianfa Property has implemented a "Good Service" system, which includes various service tags and action plans to enhance service quality, achieving a satisfaction score of 94, ranking second in the industry [9] Group 3: Technological Integration - Jianfa Property is actively embracing technology, integrating AI and robotics into property management to improve service efficiency and reduce costs [14] - In 2024, the company piloted cleaning robots in about 10% of its communities, significantly enhancing cleaning efficiency and hygiene standards [16] - The introduction of smart technologies, such as automatic barriers and LED energy-saving lights, aligns with the government's vision of creating safe, comfortable, green, and smart living spaces [16] Group 4: Future Outlook - As a member of the Fortune Global 500 Jianfa Group, Jianfa Property emphasizes long-term development while balancing scale and efficiency [17] - The company is positioned for steady growth in the new cycle, aiming to create greater value for shareholders [17]

Core Insights - The industry is entering an era of "good houses," with companies focusing on improving delivery quality and services [1][2] - Vanke reported a revenue exceeding 340 billion, achieving significant results in streamlining operations and leading in various sectors [1] - Vanke successfully delivered over 180,000 homes in 2024 despite multiple challenges [2] Group 1: Company Performance - Vanke achieved a revenue of over 340 billion, ranking first in large transaction scale and sales area in the comprehensive residential sector [1] - The company maintained robust growth in its operational service business and was the first in the industry to achieve breakthroughs in multi-track REITs [1] - Vanke's delivery quality received professional recognition, with multiple projects awarded the national-level "Guangsha Award" [1] Group 2: Delivery and Customer Engagement - Vanke invited nearly 40,000 homeowners to visit construction sites, enhancing transparency in the construction process [1] - The company pioneered 360° panoramic photography to showcase indoor construction progress to customers [1] - Over half of Vanke's projects achieved "delivery and certification" simultaneously, ensuring customer satisfaction [1] Group 3: Technological Innovation - Vanke has obtained nearly 300 national invention patents, with key technologies recognized at top international AI academic conferences [2] - The introduction of a large model for blueprints improved blueprint search efficiency by over six times and verification efficiency by 15 times [2] - The application of technology has effectively reduced blueprint and construction issues, promoting the construction of "good houses" [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - Industry experts believe that Vanke's ability to deliver over 180,000 homes in 2024 amidst challenges indicates a strong commitment to high-quality delivery [2] - With support from major stakeholders and favorable policies, Vanke is expected to return to a healthy development trajectory as the market gradually recovers [2]

Economic Policy - Shenzhen's housing provident fund loan limit has been increased to 2.31 million RMB, which has been positively received by the public, with 475 employees already utilizing the new loan offsetting service, totaling 882.315 million RMB in repayments [1] - New home prices have risen for two consecutive months, with over 70% of demand in Dalian's real estate market coming from upgrade needs, indicating a positive market sentiment supported by government subsidies and corporate discounts [2] Company Developments - Green Town China is experiencing significant management changes, indicating strong control intentions from its major shareholder, the China Communications Construction Company [3] Financial Performance - China Merchants Shekou has implemented a self-reform strategy, including a 50% salary cut for its chairman and executives, reflecting a response to market pressures [4] - Country Garden Services has reported a decline in gross profit for four consecutive periods, highlighting the costs associated with its expansion strategy [4] Market Trends - Real estate companies are actively pushing inventory, leading to increased market activity in Guangzhou, where the supply of quality land has risen and projects are being launched in central urban areas [4] - Economists suggest that stronger measures are needed to stabilize the housing market, with a projected consumer growth rate of over 5% for the year, which is essential for achieving GDP targets [6] Regulatory Actions - Shanghai's internet regulatory body has cracked down on self-media accounts spreading false information about the housing market, indicating a need for stricter controls to maintain market order [6] - Yunnan's provincial government emphasizes the need for effective measures to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on residential sales, investment in major projects, and ensuring price stability [7][8] Strategic Initiatives - The central government has outlined a strategic approach to stabilize the housing market, emphasizing the importance of balancing supply and demand, safety, and development [21] - The "white list" project approval process is crucial for stabilizing the market, with expectations for over 800 billion RMB in project approvals this year, which will help mitigate risks for real estate companies [18][19]

VIEW 克而瑞研究中心 "每周研究精读" ， 聚焦宏观、行业、房企、土拍、产品、客需、榜单等多个研究 成果，与各界探讨行业运行逻辑、变数及未来趋势。 点击标题阅读全文 总结与展望 2025年一季度中国房地产行业总结与展望（上篇） 政策：两会定调"稳楼市" "好房子"，供需协同促转型 行业：市场企稳蓄动能，新模式发展稳中向好 融资：广东率先落地专项债收储，房企债务重组迎来进展 2025年一季度中国房地产行业总结与展望（中篇） 产品：政府工作报告首提"好房子"，品质提升新机遇 业绩：过半百强房企业绩增长 2025年一季度中国房地产行业总结与展望（下篇） 土地：核心城市高溢价领跑，供给侧缩量提质稳预期 城市：新房"止跌"二手"稳增"，城市K型裂变加速 年报点评 保利置业：销售逆势增长，财务状况明显改善 2 024年保利置业实现全口径合约销售金额542亿元，合约销售面积212.1万平方米，持续销售项目数量明显增加。 华润置地：销售升至行业第三，经常性核心净利润超百亿 TOP10城市销售贡献6 3%，总规模升至行业第三位 研报 代建双周报 | 润地管理中标广州7个保障房项目；旭辉建管签署水口湾人文经济活力区战略合作协 ...