Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The Sino - US negotiation has concluded, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The market is still skeptical about the tariff details. After the correction, precious metals rebounded. There is a divergence in the market regarding whether there will be an interest rate cut in December, and the expected end - point of this round of interest rate cuts has been lowered compared to the previous period. The Fed meeting minutes show that most officials believe it may be appropriate to further ease policies this year. The influence of Trump on the Fed's independence is emerging, and the US employment situation is slowing down. Although Powell said that changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, it is not certain that the Fed will further cut interest rates at the December monetary policy meeting. With the US economic data trending weaker and concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence, it is expected that the medium - term prices of precious metals will still be supported, while the short - term prices are still in an adjustment state. It is recommended to pay attention to the US ADP employment data to be released this Wednesday [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Gold**: Due to the conclusion of the Sino - US negotiation, market doubts about tariff details, and the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, the price of US gold declined. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $4013 per ounce, down 2.8% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4100, and the lower support level is $3950 [6]. - **Silver**: Affected by the same factors, the price of US silver showed a weak oscillation. As of last Friday, it had a weekly decline of 0.3%, closing at $48.3 per ounce. The lower support level is $47, and the upper resistance level is $49.5 [9]. 3.2 Weekly Viewpoint The factors mentioned above led to the correction and subsequent rebound of precious metals. The market is divided on the December interest - rate cut, and the expected end - point of this round of cuts has been lowered. The Fed may further ease policies, but a December cut is not guaranteed. With the weakening US economic data and concerns about fiscal and Fed independence, precious metals are expected to be supported in the medium - term but are in short - term adjustment. Attention should be paid to the US ADP employment data on Wednesday [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators The report presents multiple charts related to overseas macroeconomic indicators, including the US dollar index, euro - US dollar and pound - US dollar exchange rates, real interest rates, yield spreads, gold - silver ratio, Fed balance - sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices, but no specific analysis of these indicators is provided in the text [15][17][19]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week The announced value of the US October Chicago PMI was 43.8, higher than the expected value of 42.3 and the previous value of 40.6 [26]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - **Sino - US Negotiation**: The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year. China will adjust counter - measures accordingly. Both sides agree to extend some tariff exclusion measures. The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule of export control announced on September 29 for one year, and China will suspend relevant export - control measures announced on October 9 for one year and study specific plans [27]. - **Fed**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 - 4.0% at the October FOMC meeting, in line with market expectations, and will end the balance - sheet reduction on December 1. Powell said that the government "shutdown" affects the economy, but the impact will reverse after the "shutdown" ends. A further interest - rate cut at the December meeting is not certain [27]. - **European Central Bank**: The ECB kept the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% at the interest - rate meeting. This is the third consecutive time it has kept rates unchanged. The last rate cut was in June when the euro - area inflation rate reached the 2% target [27]. 3.6 Inventory - **Gold**: COMEX inventory decreased by 22,053.63 kg to 1,187,159.84 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 801 kg to 87,816 kg [13][31]. - **Silver**: COMEX inventory decreased by 451,258.42 kg to 15,005,532.25 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 573 kg to 665,544 kg [13][31]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - **Gold**: The net long position of CFTC speculative funds was 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts from the previous week [13][36]. - **Silver**: The net long position of CFTC speculative funds was 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts from the previous week [13][36]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Monday (November 3), 23:00, the US October ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released. - On Wednesday (November 5), 21:15, the change in the US October ADP employment number will be announced [38].

Report Title - "Precious Metals Weekly Observation" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is digesting differences through fluctuations after the landing of macro hot - spots. Gold and silver are expected to be in a volatile state. Gold has long - term strategic allocation advantages, and its fundamentals do not support a deep correction. The market needs to correct the "expectation - reality" pricing of macro hot - spot events and digest the fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. [1][12][13][14][15] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Precious Metals Observation - **Price Fluctuation**: Precious metals fluctuated around the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's October interest - rate decision. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions in the first half of the week led to a decline in the safe - haven appeal of precious metals, triggering technical selling. After the Fed's October interest - rate cut and the decision to stop shrinking the balance sheet in December, the precious metals prices stopped falling and entered a volatile phase. [3] - **Fed's October Interest - Rate Decision**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.75% - 4.00% in October and will stop shrinking the balance sheet in December. The market has fully priced in the October interest - rate cut, and the focus is on the subsequent interest - rate cut path. It is considered that the Fed is still likely to cut interest rates in December due to factors such as the cooling of the US employment market and the approaching of PCE to the target. Before the end of the data vacuum period caused by the US government shutdown, the expectation of an interest - rate cut in December may fluctuate repeatedly. [3][4][6] - **Sino - US Trade Negotiations**: On October 30, Sino - US leaders met in Busan, South Korea, reaching a series of practical achievements and setting a one - year tactical easing period for Sino - US economic and trade relations. This will reduce the short - term volatility in the market caused by trade issues, but structural contradictions still exist, and future games will focus more on the fields of technology and security. [7][8] - **China's Gold Tax New Policy**: The new policy mainly affects institutional and corporate participants in the physical gold extraction (out - of - warehouse) link in the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, without adding new taxes or increasing the tax burden on individuals. Its purposes include cracking down on tax arbitrage, strengthening compliance operations, and guiding the market direction. The impact on the domestic gold price is limited. [9][10][11] - **Strategies**: Gold and silver are both expected to be in a volatile state. Gold has long - term strategic allocation advantages, and the current adjustment may provide a good opportunity for layout after stabilization. It is recommended to pay attention to the US Supreme Court's tariff judgment at the beginning of November and the series of macro data after the US government resumes. [12][13] 2. Operating Logic and Views - **Medium - and Long - Term Logic**: In the context of the adjustment and reshaping of the global monetary system and high macro uncertainties, gold has long - term strategic allocation advantages due to factors such as the shaking of the US dollar's reserve currency status, high inflation expectations, and central banks' continuous gold purchases. [14] - **Short - Term Logic**: The one - year buffer period of Sino - US trade negotiations reduces short - term market volatility; the US government shutdown increases market concerns about the US economy; the Fed's October interest - rate cut and the possibility of a December cut make gold more attractive in a low - interest - rate environment; and geopolitical conflicts such as those in Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela still exist. [14] - **Views and Strategies**: Gold and silver are in a volatile state. Gold's long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and the current adjustment is a short - term phenomenon. The market needs to digest the impact of macro events and Fed's policies. [14][15] 3. Important Data and Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to US Treasury bond interest rates, the relationship between US Treasury bond real yields and gold prices, precious metal ratios (such as gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio), and precious metal inventories and ETF holdings. [17][21][28][32]

Core Insights - The global precious metals market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with gold prices showing a notable decline in recent days [21][23] - Domestic gold and platinum prices are also reflecting these market changes, with various brands offering different pricing strategies [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11] Group 1: Global Market Dynamics - On October 30, 2025, the London spot gold price closed at $3955 per ounce, while gold futures were at $3971 per ounce [2] - The London spot silver and silver futures prices were both at $47.2 per ounce [2] - Recent market volatility has seen gold prices drop nearly $500 within a week, with a peak of $4381.48 per ounce earlier in October [21][22] Group 2: Domestic Market Overview - The real-time gold price in the domestic market was reported at ¥901.3 per gram, with silver at ¥10.8 per gram and platinum at ¥360 per gram [3] - Various jewelry brands have different pricing for gold and platinum, with prices for gold ranging from ¥1160 to ¥1232 per gram across different stores [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11] Group 3: Price Trends and Analysis - The current gold price in the domestic market has shown an increase of 1.20% from the previous day, with a closing price of ¥907.72 per gram [12] - The price of platinum has also increased by 1.22%, closing at ¥378.57 per gram [16] - Experts attribute the recent decline in gold prices to a decrease in short-term risk aversion and easing liquidity pressures in the silver market [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals rebounded from their lows, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.27% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 1.41%. The short - term core logic includes: the risk of trade war has eased, but geopolitical risks still exist; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are being realized. [1] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second rate cut this year, and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction starting from December 1st. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short term, oscillate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver decreased slightly. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] - **Data Summary**: - **International prices**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4038.30 per ounce, up 2.45% from the previous day; London gold was at $3994.15 per ounce, down 0.31%. [2] - **Domestic prices**: The main Shanghai gold contract closed at 921.92 yuan per gram, up 1.07%; gold T + D closed at 921.02 yuan per gram, up 1.51%. [2] - **Positions and inventories**: Comex gold positions were 528,789 hands; Shanghai gold's main contract positions decreased by 4.11% from the previous day. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, and Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% from the previous week. [2] Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [6] - **Data Summary**: - **International prices**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $48.73 per ounce, up 3.08% from the previous day; London silver was at $48.18 per ounce, up 0.01%. [6] - **Domestic prices**: The main Shanghai silver contract closed at 11,441 yuan per kilogram, up 1.67%; silver T + D closed at 11,410 yuan per kilogram, up 1.90%. [6] - **Positions and inventories**: Comex silver positions were 165,805 hands; Shanghai silver's main contract positions decreased by 1.41% from the previous day. The total visible inventory decreased by 1.03% from the previous week. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, the discount rate is 4.00%, the reserve balance rate (IORB) is 3.90%, and the Fed's total assets are $66,371.78 billion, down 0.00% from the previous week. [8] - **Economic indicators**: The ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.35, the dollar index is 99.52, and the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.31. [8] - **Inflation indicators**: CPI (year - on - year) is 3.00%, core CPI (year - on - year) is 3.00%, and PCE price index (year - on - year) is 2.74%. [10] - **Employment indicators**: The unemployment rate is 4.30%, and non - farm payrolls changed by 2.20 million. [10] - **Other indicators**: The geopolitical risk index is 188.52, the VIX index is 16.23, the CRB commodity index is 300.77, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.0944. [11]

Group 1 - The article promotes a comprehensive course on precious metals, featuring 20 sessions led by a chief analyst from Guosen Futures, covering gold, silver, platinum, and palladium [1] - The course includes four private connection sessions and a three-month learning group for real-time insights [1] - Additional resources provided include technical analysis classes, knowledge mats for gold, silver, and platinum, and a framework poster for precious metal analysis [1]

ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX更金 | CONEX日银 | AU2512 | AG2512 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点机 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/10/30 | 3973. 16 | 47.85 | 3985. 80 | 47.61 | 912. 16 | 11253.00 | 908. 84 | 11210.00 | | (本表数 据来源: | 2025/10/29 | 397 ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals have long held a significant position in global asset allocation due to their unique safe-haven properties, offering various investment channels for investors to participate flexibly and conveniently [1] Group 1: Physical Precious Metal Trading Channels - Physical precious metals primarily include gold and silver, representing the oldest form of investment in this category with global liquidity [3] - Investors can trade physical gold and silver through legitimate channels such as commercial banks, branded gold shops, and qualified online precious metal platforms [3] Group 2: Banking Precious Metal Business - The banking sector's precious metal investments mainly consist of "paper gold" and "paper silver" account products, typically issued by commercial banks with strong creditworthiness [4] - Due to increased price volatility in precious metals, many banks have issued risk warnings and suspended new account openings and regular investment plans for certain precious metal businesses [4] Group 3: Electronic Trading Platforms for Precious Metals - Electronic trading encompasses spot gold, spot silver, and gold and silver futures, allowing investors to conduct two-way trading based on price trends, often with leverage [5] - Spot gold and silver are among the most actively traded electronic products globally, with specific classes of members in the Hong Kong Gold and Silver Exchange providing trading services [5] - The platform "Bailihao" has a long operational history in financial services, covering multiple global markets and emphasizing efficiency and security in fund transactions, regulated by institutions such as ASIC and SCB [5]

Core Viewpoint - The rise in gold prices has led to a collective increase in Hong Kong's gold stocks, with significant gains observed across various companies in the sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold stocks in Hong Kong experienced notable increases, with China Silver Group rising by 7%, Zijin Gold International by over 6%, and Zijin Mining by nearly 4% [1] - Other companies such as China National Gold International and Zhaojin Mining saw increases of 3.3%, while Chifeng Jilong Gold, Shandong Gold, and Lingbao Gold all rose by over 1% [1] Group 2: Gold Price Movement - Gold prices in Asia rose, with spot gold increasing by 0.5% to $3,949.47 per ounce, following a dip after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech [1] - Powell's remarks suggested that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, which may limit the extent of gold price increases [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Metals Focus, the overall trend for precious metals is expected to be strong in 2025, with gold prices having risen 66% year-to-date and reaching a peak of over $4,380 per ounce [1] - Concerns regarding the sustainability of U.S. debt, a weakening dollar, increased gold purchases by central banks, and rising expectations for Fed rate cuts are driving the bullish outlook for gold prices, which are anticipated to continue rising and set new records in 2026 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals rebounded from a low level. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.55%, while the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.91%. The short - term outlook for precious metals is expected to be volatile and bullish, with a high - level oscillation in the medium term and a step - by - step upward trend in the long term [3]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver decreased slightly [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, regarding risk aversion, there may be a meeting between China and the US, easing the risk of a trade war. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is being realized. In terms of the risk - aversion attribute, although the trade - war risk has eased, geopolitical fluctuations still exist. Regarding the monetary attribute, the US consumer confidence in October dropped to a six - month low, and the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in October with a probability of over 90%, and about 2 more cuts within the year. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index is oscillating downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [3]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. With the Fed's decision and the China - US talks this week, risk management is recommended [4]. - **Data**: Various data on gold, including international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, etc., are presented with their changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [4]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - position rankings of futures companies' members in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are provided, including the rankings of long and short positions [5]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. There are slight increases in the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in the recent visible inventory of silver [6]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. With the Fed's decision and the China - US talks this week, risk management is recommended [7]. - **Data**: Various data on silver, including international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, etc., are presented with their changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [7]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - position rankings of futures companies' members in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are provided, including the rankings of long and short positions [8]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: Data such as the federal funds target rate, discount rate, reserve balance rate, total assets of the Fed, M2, etc., are presented with their changes compared to the previous week [9]. - **Other Key Indicators**: Key indicators including various interest - rate spreads, inflation data, economic growth data, labor - market data, real - estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, and trade data are provided with their changes [11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Related Ratios**: Data on central bank gold reserves of different countries, the proportion of different currencies in IMF foreign exchange reserves, the ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves, and other related data are presented [13]. - **Risk - Aversion and Commodity Attributes**: Data on the geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, and offshore RMB are provided with their changes [13]. - **Fed's Interest - Rate Expectations**: The expected probabilities of the Fed's interest - rate ranges at different meeting dates are presented [14].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the recent fluctuations in gold and silver prices, with gold down 4.20% closing at 901.38 yuan and silver down 3.32% closing at 11049 yuan, attributed to profit-taking after previous price surges and geopolitical factors influencing market sentiment [3] - The Shanghai gold futures reported a price of 910.88 yuan per gram, with a decline of 0.55%, opening at 895.12 yuan per gram, reaching a high of 911.98 yuan and a low of 893.64 yuan during the trading session [1] - The European leaders' call for an immediate ceasefire and negotiations has contributed to the recent price adjustments in precious metals, indicating that while short-term corrections are occurring, the long-term trends remain intact [3] Group 2 - The ADP has initiated weekly employment data releases to better track the U.S. labor market, with the first report indicating an average increase of 14,250 private sector jobs over the four weeks ending October 11 [2] - The U.S. Senate failed to pass a procedural vote on the bill aimed at ending the government shutdown, marking the 13th attempt without reaching the necessary 60 votes, which suggests ongoing uncertainty in fiscal policy [2]