新华财经上海6月10日电（记者杨溢仁）在央行呵护资金面态度愈发明确、关税调整不确定性尚存的大 背景下，债市多头情绪开始逐渐占据上风。 分析人士认为，6月仍可保持看多方向不变，10年期国债收益率的下限或在1.5%附近，各机构可继续关 注久期策略。 多重利好叠加发酵 近期，债市迎来多重利好"加持"。 首先，是来自基本面的支撑依旧未曾缺席。根据国家统计局公布的数据，2025年5月，CPI同比下降 0.1%，1月至5月CPI累计同比下降0.1%；5月PPI同比下降3.3%，1月至5月PPI累计同比下降2.6%。 "CPI同比持续处于1.0%以下的低位，表明当前国内物价水平稳中偏弱，这为下半年货币政策持续加力 提供了充分的政策空间。"一位机构交易员向记者表示，"此外，5月PPI同比跌幅较上月大幅扩大0.6个 百分点，一方面是由于新涨价动能持续减弱，另一方面也因翘尾因素对PPI同比的拖累有所加深。鉴于 基本面的复苏难言一蹴而就，则当前债市所处环境依旧'友好'，仍可保持'看多'方向。" "利率下行最主要的驱动力为实体回报率的下行，未来几个月物价走弱决定了实体能够接受的融资成本 还将下降。"国盛证券研究所固收首席分析师杨业伟 ...

Group 1 - The bond ETF market in China has reached a milestone, with total assets surpassing 310 billion yuan, marking an increase of nearly 80% compared to the end of last year [1][3] - The growth in bond ETF size reflects investors' increasing preference for low-risk assets and indicates an optimization of the product structure in the domestic ETF market [1][3] - The rapid growth of bond ETFs is attributed to a combination of factors, including improved market liquidity, lower costs, enhanced regulatory frameworks, and a shift in investor risk preferences [7][8] Group 2 - New bond ETFs have emerged as a significant force in the market, with eight newly established funds raising a total of 21.71 billion yuan this year, and their total management scale reaching 76.83 billion yuan, more than doubling since their launch [4] - Existing bond ETFs have also seen substantial net inflows, with notable increases in the sizes of various ETFs, such as the short-term bond ETF, which grew by nearly 20 billion yuan in less than six months [4][6] - The bond ETF market is expected to continue expanding, driven by regulatory support, increased acceptance among investors, and ongoing product innovation [8]

Group 1 - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market in the first half of 2025 was notable, significantly outperforming A-shares and showing resilience despite the impact of "reciprocal tariffs" [1][10] - The market has faced challenges, including pulse-like rebounds and a concentration of performance in a few sectors, with only 35% of stocks outperforming the index since the beginning of the year [1][13] - The outlook for the second half of 2025 is uncertain, with the potential for the market to maintain resilience amidst tariff uncertainties and prevailing sentiments [1][14] Group 2 - The core issue facing the Chinese economy is the ongoing credit contraction in the private sector, driven by a mismatch between return expectations and costs, rather than a lack of liquidity or low interest rates [2][16] - As of April, China's M2 reached 325 trillion RMB, 2.4 times GDP, and household savings hit a record high of 145 trillion RMB, indicating ample liquidity [2][16] - The actual interest rate remains high relative to the natural rate, creating a situation where return expectations for residents and enterprises are lower than their financing costs [2][17] Group 3 - Solutions to the credit contraction include increasing return expectations and lowering financing costs, with a focus on external interventions such as fiscal policies or new growth points like AI technology [3][22] - The current credit cycle is not in a phase of significant deleveraging but is also not ready for substantial expansion, suggesting a period of stagnation in the second half of 2025 [4][27] - Key factors influencing the credit cycle include tariffs, fiscal policy, and AI developments, with the relative changes in these areas being crucial for future market direction [4][27] Group 4 - The market is characterized by excess liquidity and limited returns, leading to overall index fluctuations and structural opportunities [5][41] - Investors are seeking either stable returns or growth returns, with sectors like new consumption and technology showing significant improvements in return on equity (ROE) [6][42] - Historical patterns indicate that the current market conditions resemble previous periods of wide index fluctuations, providing opportunities for sector-focused investments [7][41] Group 5 - The outlook for corporate earnings in 2025 suggests a slight growth of 2% under a 30% tariff scenario, with overall earnings growth expected to be limited [8][45] - Valuation levels are constrained, with high dividend yields of 5-6% and a crowded new economy sector, indicating limited room for overall market recovery [8][48] - The inflow of southbound funds remains a significant driver for the Hong Kong market, with an estimated inflow of 200-300 billion HKD expected this year [9][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market in 2025 has entered a state of "low interest rates + narrow spreads + high volatility," and in the second half of the year, there may be two characteristics: the return of the pricing anchor and a favorable period for action from June to August [4]. - External demand expectations are volatile, but the bond market mainly prices domestic demand. The core contradiction in the domestic economy lies in shrinking demand and weakening expectations, with insufficient endogenous economic momentum [4][138]. - The focus of monetary policy in 2025 is different from that in 2023 - 2024, emphasizing seizing opportunities, considering both domestic and external factors, and effectively stabilizing asset prices [5]. - The pricing anchor has returned, and the policy rate determines funds, which in turn price bonds. June - August is a good window for long - position operations in the bond market [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Analysis of the Bond Market Trend from January to Date and Its Macroeconomic Logic - **Market Trends in Different Periods**: In Q1 2025, tight funds and significant bank liability pressure led to a bond market correction; in Q2, repeated tariff expectations and reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts caused yields to decline rapidly to a low level and then fluctuate [44]. - **New Features of the Bond Market in 2025**: The central bank's policy rate has become the floor of the money market; short - term bonds perform weakly and are more affected by funds, while long - term bonds have larger fluctuations and are difficult to grasp; the overall fundamentals are stable, but tariff pulses have a significant impact, and the stock and bond markets are greatly influenced by short - term risk preferences [36][43][44]. - **Credit Spreads and Strategies**: The credit spreads of medium - term notes and commercial bank secondary capital bonds have compressed. For credit spreads to return to the low point in August 2024, liquidity easing expectations need to be fulfilled, and liability expansion is required [23][44]. - **Performance of Duration Strategies**: Duration strategies in 2025 have not achieved stable returns, with inconsistent performance in different months [24][26]. - **Asset Returns Reflecting Expectations**: In 2025, the bond market rose while the stock market fell, and the difficulty of bond market timing has increased. Economic pessimistic expectations have been somewhat revised [27][29][32] 2. Changes in External and Domestic Demand and the Core Contradictions in the Bond Market - **External Demand and the "Triffin Dilemma"**: The core of the "Triffin Dilemma" is the long - term coexistence of the global nature of the US dollar's credit and trade deficits. The US faces dual deficits (trade deficit + fiscal deficit), which are more important than tariffs. The US dollar's high valuation affects its export competitiveness, and the demand for US Treasuries is weak, while the supply pressure of refinancing at maturity persists [55][61][138]. - **The "Sea Lake Manor Agreement"**: It aims to restructure global trade through tariffs, weaken the value of the US dollar, and reduce the debt scale and borrowing costs in the US Treasury market. Specific measures may include replacing foreign - held US Treasuries with ultra - long - term zero - coupon bonds and asking countries to cooperate in lowering the US dollar exchange rate [66]. - **US Economic Situation**: US consumer spending has weakened, corporate inventories have increased, and inflation expectations remain high. Tariff impacts may gradually appear in the second and third quarters of 2025, and China's external demand may further decline [67][68][69]. - **Exchange Rate and Domestic Policy**: The exchange rate factor no longer poses a rigid constraint on domestic monetary easing. Short - term "rush to export" supports external demand, but it is likely to decline in the medium term, and the bond market mainly prices domestic demand [77][86][138]. - **Domestic Economic Core Contradictions**: The core contradictions in the domestic economy are shrinking demand and weakening expectations, with insufficient endogenous economic momentum. Demand contraction is characterized by low prices and weak consumption willingness. Expectations are weakening for both residents and enterprises [88][92][138]. - **New and Old Economic Momentum Switching**: The domestic economy is undergoing a switch between new and old economic momentum. The influence of old momentum on the economy is weakening, while the influence of new momentum is accelerating but still has a low proportion [109][112][115]. - **Domestic Policy and Economic Rebound**: Fiscal policy is playing an increasingly active role, and the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies has entered a new stage. However, local governments are still mainly focused on debt resolution. The pressure of asset shortage has been alleviated but not completely eliminated [116][123][138] 3. Central Bank Liquidity: Loose Trading vs. Macro - Prudential Management - **Differences in Monetary Policy Focus**: In 2023, the focus was on reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to support post - pandemic economic recovery; in 2024, it was to promote the transformation of the monetary policy regulatory framework and remove obstacles to interest rate decline; in 2025, it emphasizes seizing opportunities, considering both domestic and external factors, and stabilizing asset prices [5][141][146]. - **Concerns about Liquidity in the Second Half of the Year** - **Reducing Liability Costs**: Deposit transfer disturbances have attenuated; the reset of time deposits may relieve bank liability costs starting from September 2025; if the Q2 research value of the insurance预定 rate remains below 2.25%, the insurance预定 rate may be lowered in Q3 [164][167][175]. - **Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts**: There may be a 10 - 20bps interest rate cut in the second half of the year, mainly triggered by the need to support the real estate market. A 50bps reserve requirement ratio cut may be necessary in the second half of the year if the economic data in Q3 are still volatile [180][184]. - **Central Bank Bond Purchases**: The resumption of central bank bond purchases may be approaching, and the purchase intensity may be significant during the second wave of net supply peaks (likely from August to September) [188]. - **Funds Rate Pricing**: The policy rate may become the implicit lower limit of the funds rate [189]. - **Relationship between Loose Trading and Macro - Prudential Management**: In Q1 2025, macro - prudential management played a role in releasing bond market risks, while in Q2, loose trading took precedence. Attention should be paid to whether macro - prudential management will regain the upper hand after the end of loose trading around Q4 [6]. - **Future Monetary Policy Reform Measures**: Consider narrowing the interest rate corridor and reforming the reserve requirement system [6] 4. Return of the Pricing Anchor and the Favorable Period for Action - **Return of the Pricing Anchor**: Open Market Operations (OMO) has become the implicit lower limit of funds, and certificates of deposit (CDs) have become the implicit lower limit of 10 - year Treasury bonds. The conditions for the decline of CDs are likely to be met in Q3 2025 [7]. - **Favorable Period for Action**: June - August is a good window for long - position operations in the bond market. The bond market strategy should focus on liquidity - favorable areas and band - trading opportunities. The yield - to - maturity (YTM) of 10 - year Treasury bonds is expected to be in the range of 1.5% - 1.7% in the next quarter and 1.4% - 1.8% in the next half - year [7]. - **Asset Allocation in the Second Half of the Year**: Convertible bonds > medium - and short - term credit risk - taking > interest rate duration extension in the fixed - income asset allocation in the second half of the year [7]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Buy" rating for several companies including Honglu Steel Structure, China Jushi, and Puyang Refractories, among others [35]. Core Insights - The total market value of public REITs has surpassed 200 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 201.99 billion yuan as of June 5, 2025, marking a 29% increase since the end of 2024 [3][5]. - The public REITs market is experiencing a steady upward trend due to the issuance of new products and rising secondary market prices, with the market value index reaching 113.91, a 19% increase from the end of 2024 [3][5]. - The narrowing yield spread between public REITs and long-term bonds is a significant factor driving the market, with the average distribution yield for public REITs at approximately 5.82% as of June 6, 2025 [15][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Topic: Public REITs Market Value Surpasses 200 Billion Yuan - As of June 6, 2025, the public REITs market value has increased by 29% compared to the end of 2024, with new products contributing to this growth [3][5]. - The market is characterized by a rotation among different sectors, with the rental housing and consumption REIT indices showing strong performance [19][20]. 2. Major Covered Companies' Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for various companies, with notable mentions such as Honglu Steel Structure and China Jushi, which are expected to perform well in the coming years [35]. - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for most covered companies, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [35]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The report provides insights into the weekly performance of the construction and building materials sectors, highlighting significant price movements among key companies [48][49]. - It notes that the public REITs market has shown resilience, with various indices reflecting positive trends in the infrastructure sector [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Since 2024, the supply pattern of the credit bond market has been reshaped, with industrial bonds and secondary and perpetual (Er Yong) bonds replacing urban investment bonds as the main forces, showing significant structural characteristics. In 2025, affected by multiple factors such as market fluctuations and stricter regulations, the supply of credit bonds has slightly decreased year-on-year. The supply of industrial bonds remains high, but the supply of ultra-long-term bonds has declined. The supply of Er Yong bonds has increased to some extent, with state-owned large commercial banks as the main issuers. The supply of urban investment bonds is still restricted, and the real estate financing remains sluggish. The highlight of this year's supply is the science and technology innovation bonds, which have been extended to financial institutions and the issuance has accelerated. [1][11][12] - Looking forward to the second half of the year, the overall supply may be flat, and the net supply may still be dominated by central and local state-owned enterprise industrial bonds and national and joint-stock Er Yong bonds. Attention should be paid to the expansion of science and technology innovation bonds. In the long term, the core of credit supply growth lies in the recovery of real financing demand. [31] Summary by Directory Credit Hotspots: Credit Bond Supply Characteristics - From 2020 to 2023, urban investment bonds were the main contributor to the credit bond market. After the release of the "Document 35" in 2023, under the strict supervision of urban investment bonds, the net financing amount decreased significantly. In 2024, due to the continuous evolution of the asset shortage, the supply of industrial bonds increased, especially the issuance of long-term varieties over 10 years. [11] - As of May 31, 2025, the net financing amount of credit bonds was 10,824 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.4%. Industrial bonds are still the main force in credit bond supply, and the issuance entities continue to concentrate on high-quality ones. The real estate bond market is still in the process of repair and adjustment, and the net financing amount remains at a relatively low level. The supply of urban investment bonds is limited under continuous strict supervision and debt resolution. The supply of Er Yong bonds has increased, with state-owned large commercial banks as the main issuers. [12] - In 2025, the net financing amount of industrial bonds is lower than the same period last year, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.12%. The supply of industrial bonds is mainly within 3 years, and the net supply of industrial bonds over 10 years has decreased significantly. The supply of Er Yong bonds has decreased year-on-year, and joint-stock banks have become the main supply force. [14][19] - In May 2025, the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds accelerated, with a monthly issuance of over 350 billion yuan, a record high. Structurally, financial science and technology innovation bonds accounted for 62%, mainly commercial bank bonds, and non-financial enterprise science and technology innovation bonds accounted for 38%, mainly central and local state-owned enterprises. [31] Market Review: The Central Bank Announced Trillion-Level Reverse Repurchase Operations, and Er Yong Bonds Performed Relatively Stronger - From May 30 to June 6, 2025, the central bank announced a 1-trillion-yuan outright reverse repurchase operation at the beginning of the month, and the money market was loose. Interest rate bonds strengthened, while corporate credit bonds showed mixed performance. The short-term yields of corporate credit bonds increased slightly, the medium and long-term yields of medium and low-grade bonds performed relatively well, and most of the spreads were passively widened. The yields of Er Yong bonds decreased by about 3BP, and the short-term spreads decreased slightly. [2][36] - Last week, the buying volume continued to increase, with wealth management products net buying 10.4 billion yuan and funds net buying 15.5 billion yuan. The median spreads of public bonds in various industries increased by about 1BP, and the median spreads of urban investment bonds in various provinces showed mixed performance, with the spreads in Guizhou decreasing significantly. [2][36] Primary Issuance: Overall Issuance Declined Due to Holiday Factors, and Most Issuance Interest Rates Increased - From June 3 to June 6, 2025, the total issuance of corporate credit bonds was 196.5 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 31%, and the total issuance of financial credit bonds was 19 billion yuan, a significant month-on-month decrease of 90%. The total net financing was 49 billion yuan, including a net repayment of 12 billion yuan for urban investment bonds and a net financing of 62.9 billion yuan for industrial bonds. The total net financing of financial credit bonds was 10.3 billion yuan. [3][57] - Affected by holiday factors, the issuance of both corporate and financial credit bonds decreased. In terms of issuance interest rates, the issuance interest rates of medium and short-term notes, except for AAA, showed an upward trend, and the average issuance interest rates of corporate bonds, except for AA+, also showed an upward trend. [3][57] Secondary Trading: Medium and Short-Term Maturities Were Actively Traded, and the Trading of Long-Term Maturities Decreased Slightly - The actively traded entities are mainly medium and high-grade, medium and short-term, and central and local state-owned enterprises. In terms of types, the actively traded entities of urban investment bonds are mainly divided into two categories: one is the mainstream high-grade platforms in economically strong provinces such as Jiangsu and Guangdong; the other is the core main platforms in relatively high-spread areas of large economic provinces (such as Shandong, Chongqing, and Sichuan). The actively traded entities of real estate bonds are still mainly AAA, and the trading maturities are mostly within 1 - 3 years. The actively traded entities of private enterprise bonds are also mainly AAA, and the trading maturities are mostly medium and short-term. [4][67] - Among the actively traded urban investment bonds, the trading volume of bonds with a maturity of over 5 years accounted for 3%, a slight decrease compared with the previous week (4%). [4][67]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Ethanol [1] - Bearish: Polycrystalline Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Coking Coal, Coke, Logs, PTA, Short - Fiber, PVC [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Silicon Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Live Pigs, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, Ethylene Glycol, Styrene, Urea, Methanol, Seasonal Products, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term fluctuations of stock indices are dominated by overseas variables, and they are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - Asset scarcity and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international relations. For example, the price of copper is affected by supply and Sino - US relations; the price of aluminum is affected by inventory and downstream demand [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - Stock Index: Overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations, expected to oscillate strongly with caution about tariff signal repetitions [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset scarcity and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning restricts upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Expected to run strongly in the short term with a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: Technically broken through, expected to run strongly but beware of a pull - back [1]. - Copper: The Sino - US leaders' call boosts the price, but sufficient supply restricts the upward space [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand may lead to a weakening oscillation [1]. - Alumina: Spot price rising, futures price falling due to increased production [1]. - Nickel: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with long - term surplus pressure [1]. - Stainless Steel: Follows macro - oscillations in the short term, with long - term supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Supply contradiction intensifies in the short term, expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - Industrial Silicon: High supply in the northwest, resuming production in the southwest, low demand, and high inventory pressure [1]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: In the window period of peak - to - off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns and no upward driving force [1]. - Iron Ore: Expecting the peak of molten iron, with supply increase in June [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Short - term supply - demand balance, with high warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Cost is affected by coal, but production reduction makes supply - demand tight [1]. - Glass: Weak supply and demand, with prices continuing to weaken [1]. - Soda Ash: Direct demand is okay, but terminal demand is weak, with medium - term over - supply and price pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures can be shorted [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to hit a record high, but oil prices may affect production [1]. - Corn: Supply - demand tightening supports a strong oscillation, but the increase is limited by substitute grains [1]. - Soybeans: Expected to oscillate due to the lack of strong upward driving force [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downward space is limited [1]. - Logs: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and short - selling is recommended [1]. - Live Pigs: Inventory is sufficient, and futures are stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sino - US calls, geopolitical situations, and the summer peak season support the prices [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand [1]. - Natural Rubber: Futures - spot price difference returns, cost support weakens, and inventory decreases [1]. - BR Rubber: Fundamentals are loose in the short term, and long - term factors need attention [1]. - PTA: Actual production hits a new high, and sales are difficult [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profit expands, and inventory is decreasing [1]. - Styrene: Speculative demand weakens, inventory rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - Urea: Expected to rebound due to export demand [1]. - Methanol: Entering the inventory - accumulation stage, with weak traditional demand [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and new device production [1]. - Caustic Soda: Spot is strong in the short term, but the price - reduction expectation is traded in advance [1]. - LPG: Prices are weak and oscillate in a narrow range [1]. Others - Container Shipping on European Routes: The contract in the peak season can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The REITs market is expected to continue to perform well due to the downward pressure on bond market interest rates, enhancing the attractiveness of REITs as a high-dividend, low-to-medium risk asset. The expectation of increased participation from social security and pension funds further supports this outlook [3][5][6]. Market Overview - As of the 23rd week of 2025, the CSI REITs (closing) index stood at 881.85, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.7% and a week-on-week increase of 1.55%. The CSI REITs total return index reached 1107.26, with a year-on-year increase of 18.05% and a week-on-week increase of 1.58% [3][5][14][18]. - The trading volume in the REITs market reached 465 million shares, a year-on-year increase of 18.93%, while the trading value amounted to 2.093 billion yuan, up 29.28% year-on-year. The turnover rate for the period was 2.4%, down 23.08% year-on-year [3][25][29]. Sector Performance - Weekly and monthly performance of various REITs sectors for the 23rd week of 2025 showed the following changes: - Affordable housing: +0.12% (weekly), +4.05% (monthly) - Environmental: +0.84% (weekly), +0.17% (monthly) - Highways: +2.72% (weekly), +5.37% (monthly) - Industrial parks: +0.88% (weekly), +1.92% (monthly) - Warehousing and logistics: +0.85% (weekly), +5.21% (monthly) - Energy: +2.24% (weekly), +3.96% (monthly) - Consumer: +1.41% (weekly), +7.67% (monthly) [3][36][54]. Upcoming Developments - Xinyi Energy plans to issue public REITs based on solar power plants, aiming to enhance the quality and expansion of infrastructure REITs. The Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission supports the identification of quality projects that do not currently meet REIT issuance conditions and encourages collaboration with existing REIT platforms [4][12][13].

Group 1 - The report highlights the ongoing restructuring of global trade dynamics, with China's economic ties to emerging markets strengthening while its direct trade with the US is diminishing. This shift is seen as a potential opportunity for China amidst a "strategic stalemate" with the US [4][5][6] - The A-share market is positioned to potentially enter a bull market phase, driven by increasing household asset allocation towards equities, particularly as 2025 marks a peak for deposit reallocations. The report anticipates a gradual shift in asset allocation as residents seek diversified investment options [7][8] - The report suggests that the current market has not yet signaled the start of a bull run, with supply-side improvements clear but demand-side factors remaining complex. The timing for a market rally is still uncertain, with expectations for a clearer picture emerging in 2026 [9][10] Group 2 - A-share earnings forecasts for 2025 indicate a year-on-year growth of 4.6% for non-financial companies, with significant fluctuations expected throughout the year. The second quarter is projected to be a critical window for export recovery, while the latter half of the year may see a decline in demand [12] - The asset management industry is not yet prepared for a bull market, as historical patterns show that a cycle of capital inflow is necessary for a bull market to take hold. The report emphasizes the need for a sustained accumulation of profit effects to trigger a significant shift in public fund dynamics [13] - The report anticipates that the next potential bull market may evolve into a "slow bull" unique to China, characterized by prolonged but gradual improvements in fundamentals and a higher value attribute in the market [18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Interest rates are expected to reach new lows, with a new downward trend possibly starting from mid - to late June. The report believes that the 10 - year treasury bond could reach 1.4% - 1.5% within the year [5][18]. 3. Summary by Related Content Bond Market Performance This Week - The bond market fluctuated strongly this week, with most interest rates across different tenors declining. At the beginning of the month, funds became looser, with the R001 rate dropping to around 1.45% and the R007 rate to around 1.55%. The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond rates decreased by 1.7bps and 2.0bps to 1.65% and 1.88% respectively. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fell 2.3bps to 1.68%, and the 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bond rates dropped 3.2bps and 1.9bps [1][8]. Alleviation of Market Concerns - Market concerns about the bond market have eased. Big banks have limited pressure to sell bonds, and there is no obvious need to realize floating profits at the end of the quarter. Although a large number of certificates of deposit will mature in the coming weeks, due to the limited liability pressure of banks, they are still lending a large amount of funds, and the certificate of deposit rates remain low. The central bank's repurchase operation at the beginning of the month also helps stabilize market expectations [1][8]. Factors Driving Interest Rate Decline - The main driver of interest rate decline is the decrease in the real - economy return rate. The weakening trend of prices in the next few months is expected to lead to a reduction in the financing cost that the real economy can accept. Empirical data shows a high correlation between industrial enterprises' EBIT/ total assets and the weighted average loan interest rate. The recent weakening of industrial product prices indicates a possible decline in corporate profitability in the next few months, which means the corporate - acceptable financing cost may continue to fall [2][9]. Manifestation of Interest Rate Decline - The decline in broad - spectrum interest rates is reflected in both the decrease in liability costs and the narrowing of net interest margins. The liability cost decline is evident in various financial institutions, with the yields of deposits, money market funds, wealth management products, and insurance products showing a downward trend. For example, the 1 - year and 5 - year deposit rates of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China have decreased by 50bps and 70bps respectively since the end of 2023, and were further reduced by 15bps and 25bps in May this year. The 7 - day average interest rate of Yu'E Bao has dropped below 1.2%, hitting a record low [3][12][13]. - Financial institutions' earnings are also on a downward trend. The net interest margin of banks has been decreasing over the past few years, dropping from 1.91% at the end of 2022 to 1.43% in the first quarter of this year, a decrease of 9bps compared to the end of last year, and it may continue to decline. Insurance's fee - difference loss may also be shrinking, and the management fees of various fixed - income asset management institutions may be under continuous pressure [4][15]. Short - term Driving Variables - In addition to the fundamental - driven decline in broad - spectrum interest rates, changes in asset supply and demand and the central bank's liquidity support will be the main short - term variables driving interest rates to break previous lows. The supply of government bonds will slow down in the next few months, while the supply of funds will remain abundant. The central bank has increased its support for liquidity, conducting repurchase operations in early June to maintain capital stability. The bond market may once again experience a situation where demand exceeds supply, and the asset shortage may reappear [4][17][18].