Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, with a drop of 5.3% to $4124 per ounce, reflects a combination of profit-taking, reduced safe-haven demand, and changes in the macroeconomic environment, despite a year-to-date increase of approximately 60% [1][3][8] Group 1: Factors Contributing to Gold Price Decline - The immediate trigger for the gold price drop was profit-taking by investors after a strong rally, which saw gold prices reach a record high of $4381.21 on Monday [3][4] - A decrease in safe-haven demand was noted, attributed to optimistic signals in international trade, particularly comments from President Trump regarding a potential trade agreement with China [3][4] - The geopolitical landscape, including expectations of a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has also contributed to a diminished appeal for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][7] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Economic Indicators - The overall market risk appetite improved, negatively impacting safe-haven metals like gold [4] - The U.S. government shutdown has created uncertainty, but recent political developments suggest a potential resolution, further reducing the need for safe-haven assets [4][6] - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which rose 0.34% to 98.98, has made gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, suppressing demand [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Short-term predictions indicate that gold prices may enter a consolidation phase, with expectations of volatility in the coming weeks [8] - Despite the recent decline, the long-term outlook remains supported by geopolitical uncertainties, economic slowdown risks, and continued central bank buying [8][9] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate path remains uncertain, with predictions varying widely, which adds to the policy risk surrounding gold investments [8]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden 5% drop in gold prices, marking the largest single-day decline of the year, reflects a collision between market expectations and reality, ending a three-month bullish trend [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in August ignited expectations for a rate cut in September, leading to a surge in gold prices from $3,200 to $4,400, a rise of over 37% [2] - The realization of the rate cut led the market to reassess gold's valuation, as the fulfillment of rate cut expectations limited further stimulus potential, causing a shift from expectation-driven to reality-validated momentum [2] Group 2: Data Vacuum - The U.S. government shutdown in November resulted in a "data vacuum," delaying the release of key economic indicators such as non-farm payrolls and CPI, which are crucial for assessing economic fundamentals [3] - The absence of data hindered investors' ability to evaluate inflation pressures or employment market changes, leading to a lack of sustained risk aversion [4] Group 3: Technical Factors - Technically, gold entered an overbought territory around $4,400, with the RSI indicator showing extreme optimism, making it susceptible to negative signals that could trigger technical sell-offs [5] - On November 20, profit-taking by institutional investors initiated a rapid decline in gold prices, resulting in a domino effect of stop-loss triggers and automated sell-offs, shifting the market from buying to panic selling [5] Group 4: Policy Divergence - Despite the rate cut in September, divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future policy became apparent, with some officials suggesting a pause in rate cuts, indicating a potential shift towards a neutral monetary policy [6] - This divergence contrasted with previous expectations of continued easing, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [7] - The uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy during the government shutdown heightened concerns about "stagflation" risks, challenging gold's value preservation attributes [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The recent decline in gold prices is viewed as a necessary correction, reflecting a transition from market exuberance to a more sober assessment of reality, as previous gains had already priced in the benefits of rate cuts [7] - Future gold price movements will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, the timing of economic data releases, and changes in geopolitical risks, while its safe-haven properties remain intact despite complex price fluctuations [7]

封面新闻记者 朱珠 综合央视新闻、每日经济新闻等 据央视新闻客户端消息，当地时间21日，受地缘政治、投资者获利止盈等多重因素影响，黄金、白银遭遇市场广泛抛售。 当天，国际现货黄金价格一度下跌超6%，跌破每盎司4100美元，创下12年来最大单日跌幅；国际现货白银价格一度下跌超8%，跌破每盎司48美元，创下 2021年以来最大单日跌幅。 记者查询发现，10月以来，伦敦金现货价格站上4000美元/盎司、4200美元/盎司，并持续上行冲破4300美元/盎司，屡创历史新高，成为市场焦点。 金价狂飙后，国际黄金市场突现"跳水"行情，高位震荡开启，现货黄金再次跌回4000美元/盎司。 截至10月22日发稿，现货黄金报4088美元/盎司，COMEX黄金期货报4121.2美元/盎司。 封面新闻记者注意到，国内金饰价格也受到影响，周生生品牌金饰价格前一日还是1289元/克，今日价格跌到1250元/克，一夜跌去39元/克。 10月22日，世界黄金协会数据显示，2025年9月，全球实物黄金ETF录得有史以来最大单月流入规模，推动三季度总流入达到创纪录的260亿美元。截至三 季度末，全球黄金ETF资产管理总规模（AUM）增至4720亿 ...

光大证券国际策略师伍礼贤向第一财经分析，昨晚金价明显回调，导致金矿股股价下跌。此前金价涨至 接近4400美元/盎司时，涨势过于急促，出现短线回调属于正常且健康现象，预计金价可能维持在高位 震荡，从中线来看，全球对黄金的配置意愿仍然较强。黄金股与金价走势具有较高相关性，但这种相关 性并非绝对对等关系，因为股票与商品资产性质不同，股价还与整体大盘表现相关，不同个股本身也存 在不同消息，例如黄金上涨期间，若某只股票所属矿山停产或维修，或者业绩不如预期，也会对股价产 生影响。 红蚁资本投资总监李泽铭认为，金矿股通常会出现过度炒作现象，10月中旬前本轮金矿股股价升幅大于 黄金升幅。金矿股下跌主要由于金价及其他贵金属价格出现较大幅度调整，黄金大跌属于罕见的单日回 调，必然影响金矿股走势，金矿股跟随金价调整无可避免。另外，金矿股陆续公布三季度业绩，部分公 司不如市场预期，这让很多投资者感到疑惑，金矿股利润并未完全受益于金价涨幅。目前来看，金价回 调是暂时性的，随着全球局势升温、对货币不信任情绪加剧以及避险需求增加，中长远来看金价仍有上 涨动力，经历本轮回调后，金矿股仍有机会吸引中长线资金进入。 博时基金基金经理王祥说，交易 ...

巨震。 最新消息显示，美国总统特朗普重申，美联储政策利率太高。 花旗银行预计，美国政府"停摆"结束及中美协议公布可能推动黄金在未来2—3周内进入震荡整理阶段。 花旗银行表示短期内看跌黄金（此前看涨，现转为看跌），设定0—3个月目标价为4000美元/盎司。 随着美联储议息会议的临近，10月降息似乎已成定局。据CME"美联储观察"工具，美联储10月降息25 个基点的概率为98.9%，维持利率不变的概率为1.1%。美联储12月累计降息50个基点的概率为98.7%， 累计降息75个基点的概率为0.2%。 另据央视新闻，当地时间21日，据英国首相府消息，乌克兰总统泽连斯基、英国首相斯塔默、德国总理 梅尔茨、法国总统马克龙、意大利总理梅洛尼、波兰总理图斯克、葡萄牙总统科斯塔、挪威首相斯特 勒、芬兰总统斯图布、丹麦首相弗雷泽里克森、西班牙首相桑切斯、瑞典首相克里斯特松以及欧盟委员 会主席冯德莱恩当天发表联合声明。 声明表示，各方一致支持争取公正而持久的和平，并赞同美国总统特朗普提出的立即停火、以当前接触 线作为谈判起点的主张。声明重申，国际边界不应以武力方式改变。各方强调，将继续加强对俄罗斯经 济和国防工业的制裁与压力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant sell-off in gold and silver markets was driven by geopolitical factors and profit-taking by investors, leading to the largest single-day price drops in over a decade for both metals [1][6]. Group 1: Market Impact - On the 21st, international spot gold prices fell over 6%, dropping below $4100 per ounce, marking the largest single-day decline in 12 years [1]. - International spot silver prices experienced a decline of over 8%, falling below $48 per ounce, which is the largest single-day drop since 2021 [1]. - Following the international trends, domestic gold jewelry prices in China were significantly reduced on the 22nd, with major brands like Lao Miao and Zhou Sheng Sheng reporting price drops of 83 RMB and 39 RMB per gram, respectively [3]. Group 2: Price Trends and Analysis - Since the beginning of the year, international spot gold prices have increased by over 50%, while silver prices have risen nearly 70% [6]. - Analysts suggest that the previous surge in precious metal prices was due to heightened geopolitical tensions, which drove investors towards safe-haven assets [6][7]. - The recent price correction is attributed to profit-taking and a decrease in safe-haven demand, with expectations that any further declines in gold prices could be viewed as buying opportunities if the Federal Reserve maintains its current interest rate path [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the gold market remains uncertain, with some analysts indicating a higher likelihood of price declines unless high-net-worth investors continue to significantly increase their gold holdings [8]. - HSBC's recent commodity outlook report suggests that gold's upward momentum could persist until 2026, driven by strong central bank purchases and ongoing fiscal concerns in the U.S., with a target price of $5000 per ounce [9].

国泰海通证券认为，短期波动不改港股四季度牛市行情，其中恒生科技空间最大。首先，港股互联网巨 头受益AI叙事发酵，港股资产结构优势有望凸显。其次，伴随美联储重启降息，港股外资力量回流存 在超预期可能。最后，南向资金有望继续流入，有望推动港股行情继续向上。结构上，AI驱动下，港 股科技仍是行情主线。此外，港股红利受益于政策强化分红+低利率，港股新消费、创新药资产较A股 同样稀缺，下半年或也值得关注。 前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙表示，目前板块之间也出现了轮动，前期涨幅较大的科技股，出现了 较大幅度调整，而低估值高股息板块，比如银行、电力等则出现逆势上涨，反映出投资者风险偏好下降 之后，从成长股切换到低估值的红利股的特征。 本文转载自腾讯自选股，智通财经编辑：陈筱亦。 恒生指数低开0.5%，恒生科技指数跌0.82%。黄金股大跌，紫金黄金国际、山东黄金跌超6%。泡泡玛特 涨近8%，公司第三季度整体收益同比增长245%-250%。 关于港股后市 银河证券指出，中美贸易谈判结果仍存很大变数，短期内市场风险偏好或持续偏低。当前港股估值整体 处于历史中高水平，预计未来港股市场或宽幅震荡。配置方面，建议关注以下板块：(1)海 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have experienced a significant decline, with London gold dropping over 5%, attributed to easing geopolitical tensions and a softening of Trump's trade stance, leading to a decrease in safe-haven demand [1][2] Market Analysis - The recent rise in gold prices reflects the weakening of the US dollar's credibility, indicating a shift towards gold as an independent asset rather than being tied to the dollar [2][3] - The current high valuation of gold, driven by rapid price increases, has led to profit-taking among investors, contributing to the recent price correction [2] - A joint statement from European leaders supporting negotiations for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has further diminished safe-haven demand for gold [2] Long-term Outlook - The fundamental value of gold as a core investment remains unchanged, as the US dollar credit system faces significant structural challenges, exacerbated by rising government debt and concerns over debt sustainability [3] - Central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves, with projections indicating a rise to 74.06 million ounces by September 2025, reflecting a monthly increase of 40,000 ounces [3] Investment Opportunities - Current price corrections in gold may present a favorable entry point for long-term investors looking to capitalize on future price increases [4] - Investment options include: 1. **Gold ETFs**: These funds hold physical gold and closely track the price of gold contracts, providing direct exposure to gold [5] 2. **Gold Mining ETFs**: These track the gold industry stocks across the entire supply chain, offering exposure to both gold price movements and related mining sectors [6] 3. **Mining ETFs**: These focus on a broader range of metals, including copper and lithium, alongside gold, allowing investors to capture rebounds in multiple sectors [7]

Core Viewpoint - On the 21st, gold and silver experienced widespread market sell-offs due to geopolitical factors and profit-taking by investors, with gold prices dropping over 6% and silver prices falling over 8%, marking significant declines in their respective markets [2] Group 1: Market Performance - International spot gold prices fell below $4100 per ounce, recording the largest single-day drop in 12 years [2] - International spot silver prices dropped below $48 per ounce, marking the largest single-day decline since 2021 [2] Group 2: Year-to-Date Performance - Since the beginning of the year, international spot gold prices have increased by over 50% [2] - International spot silver prices have risen by nearly 70% during the same period [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that previous tensions in the international situation led investors to seek safe-haven assets in precious metals, and if market sentiment continues to ease, precious metal prices may face further corrections [2]

当地时间10月21日，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指创下历史新高，标普500指数平收，纳指小幅下跌。 | | 而种 | 价格 | 价格(24h%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | B BTC | $109132.1 | -1.29% | | | | + ETH | $3898.49 | -2.09% | | | | S SOL | $187.58 | -1.29% | | | | XRP | $2.4412 | -1.90% | | | | DOGE | $0.19581 | -2.00% | | | | BNB | $1066.17 | -2.97% | | | | | $35.673 | -6.14% | | | 爆仓 | | | | | | l小时爆仓 | $7459.79万 | 4小时爆仓 | | $1.64亿 | | を車 | $6306.81万 | 念東 | | $1.41亿 | | 型 | $1152.99万 | 空車 | | $2355.79万 | | 12小时爆仓 | $5.08亿 | 24小时爆仓 | | $7.02亿 | | 參東 | $2 ...