国家统计局19日发布数据显示，2025年中国国内生产总值（GDP）1401879亿元，首次跃上140万亿元新 台阶，按不变价格计算，比上年增长5.0%，成为"十四五"收官之年最亮眼的注脚，彰显出中国经济基础 稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大的鲜明特质。 "稳"是发展的底盘，是风浪中锚定航向的压舱石。在全球经济增速徘徊于3%左右、地缘政治博弈加 剧、内外风险挑战交织的背景下，中国经济能突破140万亿元大关并实现5%增长，这份稳定来之不易。 这份"稳"，体现在关键指标的坚实支撑：城镇调查失业率年均5.2%，就业大局总体平稳；外汇储备余额 超3.3万亿美元，筑牢对外支付安全防线；进出口总额同比增长3.8%，彰显市场需求的稳定性。这 份"稳"，更源于宏观调控的精准发力与制度优势的兜底保障。积极政策既对冲短期下行压力，又稳定市 场预期、释放内需潜力。而民生领域的稳步向好更添底气，居民人均可支配收入实际增长5.0%，与经 济增速同步，养老育幼医疗事业持续进阶，让发展根基扎根于民。 来源：中国吉林网 长白时评评论员 久泰平 这份稳中有进、以新赋能，最终落脚于"韧"的鲜明特质，是中国经济在变局中应变破局的核心能力。面 对世界经贸秩 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts China's GDP growth rate will be 4.8% in 2026, supported by strong export growth. The MSCI China Index target is set at 100 points, and the CSI 300 Index target is 5200 points by the end of 2026. Net inflows from southbound funds are expected to reach $200 billion (approximately 1.4 trillion yuan), a new record high [1][9]. Export Support Factors - China's export growth is projected to maintain a rate of 5%-6%, significantly higher than the global trade growth of 2%-3%. This forecast is based on three core factors: steady global economic recovery boosting demand, China's cost advantages across various industries, and unique capabilities in rare earths and supply chains, making it difficult for international tariffs to be imposed [2][11]. - The negative impact of the real estate sector on economic growth is expected to diminish over time, with the most significant effects occurring in 2024 and 2025. As the market size shrinks, the downward pressure on GDP growth will lessen [2][11]. Currency Outlook - The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately, with an estimated undervaluation of about 25%. By the end of 2026, the RMB/USD exchange rate is projected to reach 6.85, further strengthening to 6.54 by the end of 2027, indicating an annual appreciation of approximately 2%-3% [3][11]. Stock Market Valuation and Returns - The dynamic P/E ratios for the MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index have returned to historical averages, at approximately 13 times and 15 times, respectively. The expected stock market return for 2026 is between 15%-20%, primarily driven by earnings growth, with a projected earnings growth rate of 14% [4][12]. - Three main factors are anticipated to drive earnings growth: contributions from the AI industry, expansion into overseas markets, and positive impacts from the "anti-involution" trend [4][12][13]. Liquidity Support - Net inflows from southbound funds are expected to reach $200 billion (approximately 1.4 trillion yuan), reflecting increased demand for stock allocations from domestic individuals and institutions [6][14]. - There is still room for improvement in overseas fund allocations to Chinese stocks, which currently account for less than 8% of total risk exposure among hedge fund clients tracked by Goldman Sachs. Recent communications indicate a growing interest from overseas investors in Chinese investments [6][14]. - Personal investors are projected to contribute approximately 2 trillion yuan to the stock market over the next 12 months, driven by expectations of stock returns between 10%-15% and improved inflation expectations [6][14]. Sector Preferences - Goldman Sachs maintains a high allocation recommendation for AI and technology hardware, reflecting strong confidence in the AI narrative. The materials sector is also favored, while insurance is newly recommended for overweight allocation due to its potential for higher investment returns in a slow bull market and attractive dividend characteristics [8][15]. Policy Focus - The concept of "investing in people" is highlighted as a key policy direction, expected to manifest in various initiatives, including annual childcare subsidies of 3600 yuan. This focus is anticipated to continue and expand, covering the entire life cycle from birth to retirement, with policy support likely to strengthen to improve living standards and increase birth rates [8][16].

2025年，中国在全球创新指数排名中首次跻身全球前十，研发经费投入强度达2.8%，首次超过经合组 织国家平均水平。 新华社北京1月21日电 题："对中国经济前景充满信心"——访亚洲开发银行驻中国代表处首席代表阿西 夫·奇马 新华社记者任军、庞元元 国家统计局1月19日发布数据，2025年国内生产总值（GDP）比上年增长5.0%，实现预期增长目标。 亚洲开发银行驻中国代表处首席代表阿西夫·奇马在接受新华社专访时表示，尽管面临复杂严峻的内外 部环境，中国经济在2025年展现出强劲韧性和活力，预计今年将继续保持稳健增长，对中国经济前景充 满信心。 "中国经济表现非常突出，在出口市场多元化拓展、发展高科技产业等方面做得非常出色。"奇马说。基 于此，亚洲开发银行已于2025年12月将中国经济增速预期进行上调。 奇马对中国经济前景表示乐观。"我们看到，中国政府推出的政策举措正持续发力显效，我对中国实现 长期经济增长目标非常有信心。" 在奇马看来，中国经济高质量发展为世界经济复苏持续注入确定性，并带来新机遇。"中国出口保持稳 定增长，为其他市场源源不断带来新产品。与此同时，国内消费的增长也推动了进口需求的增加。此 外，中国 ...

Core Insights - China's GDP has surpassed 140 trillion yuan for the first time, growing by 5% compared to the previous year, indicating resilience and confidence in the economy [1] - The total value of goods trade has exceeded 45 trillion yuan, with manufacturing value added remaining the highest in the world for 16 consecutive years [1] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth has surpassed 50%, showcasing a robust internal driving force [2] Economic Stability - The Chinese economy in 2025 is characterized by stability, effectively responding to external challenges through proactive macroeconomic policies [2] - The proportion of high-tech manufacturing value added in total industrial value added has risen to 17.1%, reflecting structural optimization [2] - China's economic growth is expected to contribute approximately 30% to global economic growth, positioning it as a reliable source of stability [3] Innovation and High-Quality Development - R&D expenditure intensity reached 2.8%, surpassing the OECD average for the first time, indicating a strong focus on innovation [4] - The manufacturing value added of digital products grew by 9.3%, with significant increases in the production of servers and industrial robots [5] - China is becoming a key player in global innovation, particularly in fields like artificial intelligence and quantum technology, enhancing its long-term competitiveness [5] Global Cooperation and Openness - China is expected to maintain a significant contribution to global economic growth, with an average contribution rate of around 30% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6] - The import scale is projected to reach 18.5 trillion yuan, providing vast market opportunities for other countries [6] - Trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries has increased by 6.3%, highlighting China's commitment to expanding international cooperation [6][7]

新华社北京1月21日电 特稿丨增长目标顺利实现 创新生发新鲜动能——海外人士热议全年经济数 据背后的中国信心 放眼全球，2025年中国经济增速在主要经济体中名列前茅，是全球经济增长最稳定、最可靠的动力 源，对世界经济增长的贡献率预计达到30%左右。2025年，中国稳外贸多样化格局加速形成，目前已成 为150多个国家和地区的主要贸易伙伴，高技术、高附加值产品成为出口增长主力，外贸展现强大韧 性。 新华社记者闫洁 "国内生产总值（GDP）首次跃上140万亿元新台阶，比上年增长5%""货物贸易进出口总值首破45 万亿元""制造业增加值连续16年稳居世界首位，服务业增加值占GDP比重提高到57.7%"……2025年，中 国经济有效应对各种风险挑战，顶压前行、向新向优发展，交出一份来之不易的成绩单，既展现行稳致 远的韧性和活力，更彰显破浪前行的信心和底气。 海外人士认为，透过这份含金量更高、韧性更强的发展答卷，可以洞察中国经济运行的态势之稳、 以创新驱动高质量发展的活力之劲、以开放助力全球共同发展的步履之坚。展望"十五五"，中国经济长 期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势不会变，优势将更加彰显，继续成为世界经济增长的"稳定锚"和 ...

新华社国内部出品 记者：刘慧 策划：邹伟 制作：栾若卉 主编：李延霞、刘夏村 拍摄：邹健波、李水仙 【纠错】 【责任编辑:胡蓉】 ...

Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP exceeded 140 trillion yuan, marking a 5.0% growth compared to 2024, showcasing the economy's resilience and innovative momentum [13][14][23] - The economic growth is attributed to a dual approach of "stabilization" and "transformation," focusing on preventing risks while directing resources towards new productive forces [14][15] Innovation and Development - Innovation is positioned as the core driver of China's economic growth, with a shift from traditional factor-driven growth to enhancing total factor productivity [17][18] - China maintains a strong momentum in sectors like artificial intelligence, robotics, and renewable energy, achieving a top ten ranking in the global innovation index [18][19] Trade and Global Cooperation - China's foreign trade demonstrates strong resilience, supported by a complete industrial system and innovative drivers, contributing to high-quality development [19][20] - The country continues to promote an open global economy, implementing policies like zero tariffs in Hainan Free Trade Port, enhancing its attractiveness to global resources [20][21] Long-term Economic Outlook - China's contribution to global economic growth remains around 30%, with expectations of continued positive trends supported by a robust industrial system and innovation capabilities [22][23] - The international community holds a favorable view of China's economic prospects, with organizations like the IMF and World Bank raising growth forecasts for 2026 [23][24]

时光为笔，2025年在中国经济的年轮上刻下了又一圈坚实印记。 风雨多经志弥坚。这一年，全球经济增长动能不足，贸易保护主义思潮涌动，外部环境的复杂严峻程度 有增无减；国内有效需求不足等周期性、结构性矛盾交织，改革发展稳定任务艰巨。重重压力之下，中 国经济展现出超乎预期的韧性，不仅实现了量的合理增长，更在质的有效提升上迈出了坚实步伐， 为"十四五"收官画上圆满句号，也为"十五五"良好开局打下坚实基础。 以数观形，以数察势。透视2025年中国经济，"稳""韧""新""活"是4个重要的观察维度。 "稳"，是不确定环境里的稀缺资源 2025年，"十四五"规划圆满收官。习近平主席在2026年新年贺词中指出，"5年来，我们踔厉奋发、勇毅 前行，克服重重困难挑战，圆满完成目标任务，在中国式现代化新征程上迈出了稳健步伐"。 大国经济，稳是根基。观察经济运行稳不稳，经济增长、就业、物价和国际收支四大宏观指标最具说服 力。 从经济增长看，"十四五"时期我国经济总量连续跨过110万亿元、120万亿元、130万亿元台阶，2025年 突破140万亿元，同比增长5%，经济社会发展主要目标任务圆满实现。 从就业、物价看，2025年城镇新增就 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's economy is projected to grow by 5.0%, reaching a GDP of over 140 trillion yuan, demonstrating resilience and innovation amid complex international challenges [8][9][10]. Economic Performance - China's economic growth reflects strong internal resilience and adaptability, with a shift from a single focus on growth rate to a multidimensional evaluation system that includes ecological improvement and public welfare [9][10]. - The government has successfully balanced growth stabilization and structural adjustment through policies that boost consumption, stabilize investment, and expand domestic demand [10][11]. Innovation and Development - Innovation is positioned as the core driver of China's high-quality economic development, with a focus on enhancing total factor productivity as traditional growth factors diminish [12][13]. - China maintains a strong momentum in sectors like artificial intelligence, robotics, and renewable energy, with significant investments in R&D, ranking second globally in R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP [13][14]. Global Trade and Cooperation - China's trade resilience is attributed to a complete industrial system, innovation-driven growth, and institutional openness, which enhance the internal dynamics of foreign trade [14][15]. - The country continues to promote an open world economy, implementing practical measures to attract global resources and enhance trade relationships, thereby contributing to global economic stability [15][16]. Long-term Economic Outlook - China's contribution to global economic growth remains around 30%, with a focus on providing affordable goods and technological advancements to the world [16][17]. - Despite external uncertainties, the long-term positive trend of China's economy is supported by a large market, a complete industrial system, and ongoing innovation and green transformation efforts [17][18].

Core Insights - In 2025, China's economy demonstrated unexpected resilience amidst global economic challenges, achieving reasonable quantitative growth and significant qualitative improvements, marking a successful conclusion to the "14th Five-Year Plan" and laying a solid foundation for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][3] Group 1: Stability - The "14th Five-Year Plan" was successfully completed, with China's GDP surpassing 140 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 5% year-on-year growth [3][4] - Urban employment targets were achieved ahead of schedule, with an average of over 12 million new urban jobs created annually during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, the highest level since March 2023, indicating a moderate recovery in price levels [3] - China's total goods trade value exceeded 45 trillion yuan in 2025, maintaining growth for nine consecutive years, with foreign exchange reserves reaching 33,579 billion USD by the end of December 2025 [4] Group 2: Resilience - The term "resilience" was selected as the representative word for 2025, highlighting China's ability to adapt and recover amidst external pressures [6] - China's economic resilience is attributed to its large-scale market and effective macroeconomic control, allowing for significant self-repair capabilities [6][7] - The focus on expanding domestic demand became more prominent in 2025, enhancing the reliability of domestic circulation [7] Group 3: Innovation - Technological innovation significantly reshaped production and daily life in 2025, with advancements in AI and robotics leading to practical applications across various sectors [11][12] - China ranked 10th in the global innovation index in 2025, maintaining the highest number of top 100 technology innovation clusters globally for three consecutive years [12] - Major technological breakthroughs were achieved in AI, biomedicine, and robotics, positioning China at the forefront of global innovation [12] Group 4: Green Development - China established the world's largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system, with one-third of electricity consumption coming from green energy [13] - The green industry, exemplified by the rapid growth of electric vehicles, played a crucial role in driving industrial upgrades [13] Group 5: Reform and Opening Up - In 2025, China advanced the construction of a unified national market, streamlining regulations to promote fair competition and resource allocation [14][15] - The implementation of the new law promoting the development of the private economy aimed to support the healthy growth of the private sector [14] - The Hainan Free Trade Port began full operations, enhancing China's openness and providing a platform for global enterprises [15]