交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 饲料蛋白政策调整预期，豆粕冲高回落 （豆粕周报7.21-7.25） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 美国大豆部分产区天气短 | 偏空 | 美国大豆产区天气短期正 | | | 期整体良好 | | 常。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆冲高回落，中美关税 谈判和美豆天气仍有变数 | 偏空 | 进口成本预计维持震荡，中 性或偏空 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期转淡，油厂 | 偏空 | 需求短期偏淡，油厂开机预 | | | 压榨量维持高位 | | 计 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term outlook for soybeans and soybean meal is mainly in a range - bound pattern. For soybean meal M2509, it is expected to oscillate between 2960 and 3020, and for soybean A2509, between 4160 and 4260. The market is influenced by factors such as US soybean planting weather, Sino - US tariff negotiations, South American soybean harvest, and domestic import volume [8][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The short - term outlook for soybean meal is to return to a range - bound pattern, with factors like the reduction of protein content in feed formulas and high imports of soybeans in July. The short - term outlook for soybeans is affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and the increase in imported soybeans [8][10]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiation progress is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the US soybean market may fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark. Domestic imported soybean arrivals in July are high, and soybean meal inventory in oil mills continues to rise. The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment, and soybean meal may enter a short - term weak oscillation pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Soybean Meal Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in US soybean - growing weather [13]. - **Soybean Meal Bearish Factors**: High domestic imported soybean arrivals in July and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybean Bullish Factors**: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Soybean Bearish Factors**: Expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 2840, with a basis of - 195, indicating a discount to futures. Oil mill soybean meal inventory is 99.84 tons, a 12.66% increase from last week and a 20.8% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 76, indicating a premium to futures. Oil mill soybean inventory is 642.24 tons, a 2.32% decrease from last week and a 5.08% increase from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions have increased, but funds have flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [10]. Other Data - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: Data from July 17 - 25 shows the prices of soybean futures, soybean meal futures, and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipts**: Data from July 15 - 25 shows the changes in warehouse receipts of soybean No.1, soybean No.2, and soybean meal [19]. - **Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 are presented, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, and consumption [30][31]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025 is provided [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from January - July 2025 are presented, including data on harvest area, yield, production, and inventory [40]. - **Imported Soybean Arrivals**: The monthly arrivals of imported soybeans from 2020 - 2025 are shown, with the peak arrival time postponed to June and an overall increase [43]. - **Oil Mill Data**: Soybean inventory in oil mills has slightly increased, and soybean meal inventory has continued to rise. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have decreased from a high level, and the demand for forward stockpiling has increased. Soybean crushing volume in oil mills has decreased from a high level, and soybean meal production in June has increased year - on - year [44][46][48]. - **Pig - Farming Data**: Pig inventory is on the rise, sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. Pig prices have recently fallen after rising, and piglet prices remain weak. The proportion of large pigs in the country has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has slightly increased. Domestic pig - farming profits have recently declined [51][53][55][57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is affected by factors such as US soybean planting weather, Sino - US trade tariffs, and South American soybean harvests. The soybean market may experience range - bound oscillations. Specifically, the M2509 contract of soybean meal is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060, and the A2509 contract of soybeans is expected to oscillate between 4140 and 4240 [8][10]. - The short - term trend of the soybean market is influenced by multiple factors. The US soybean planting weather and Sino - US trade tariff negotiations are the main focuses of the market [12][13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060, and the soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4140 and 4240. The analysis of soybean meal and soybeans includes aspects such as fundamentals, basis, inventory,盘面, and expected trends [8][10]. 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is currently good, and the US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. The soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills have increased since May. The short - term trend of soybeans and soybean meal is affected by the decline of US soybeans [12]. - The profit of pig farming in China has decreased, leading to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened since May, but the supply shortage supports the post - festival price of soybean meal. The short - term trend of soybean meal is oscillating weakly [12]. - The low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills supports the short - term price. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production area and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff wars affect the short - term oscillation of soybean meal [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean production area [13]. - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support of imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: Expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Soybean Price and Transaction Data**: It shows the transaction average price, trading volume, and price differences of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 14 to July 23, as well as the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal during the same period [15][17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: It records the changes in the warehouse receipts of soybeans (including soybean No.1 and soybean No.2) and soybean meal from July 11 to July 23 [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: They show the supply - demand balance data of global and domestic soybeans from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: It includes the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina in the 2023/24 season, the planting, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US in 2024, and the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina in the 2024/25 season [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: It shows the data of harvest area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, old - crop soybean exports, crushing volume, and soybean output in Brazil and Argentina in the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from January to July 2025 [41]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Data**: It shows the monthly arrival volume of imported soybeans in China from 2020 to 2025, indicating that the arrival volume reached a high in June [44]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions of soybean meal have decreased, and the funds have flowed in. The main short positions of soybeans have increased, and the funds have flowed out [8][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal futures may return to a range - bound pattern, with the M2509 contract oscillating between 3040 and 3100. The soybean futures A2509 may fluctuate between 4180 and 4280. The market focuses on factors such as the weather in the US and South American soybean - growing areas and Sino - US trade tariff games [8][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The soybean meal futures are back in a range - bound state, while the spot is relatively weak, and the spot discount remains at a relatively high level. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2509 contract remains volatile [22][28]. 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. The domestic import of soybeans reached a high in June, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories of domestic oil mills have rebounded from low levels. The decline in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, and soybean meal demand has weakened after May Day. The soybean meal market is in a short - term weak - oscillating pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and variable weather in the US soybean - growing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: High total volume of imported soybeans arriving in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans [14]. - Bearish factors: Continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [31]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [32]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main long positions increased, and funds flowed in. For soybeans, the main positions switched from long to short, and funds flowed in [8][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Bean Meal**: The US soybean prices fluctuated after rising, affected by the overall good weather in the US soybean - producing areas and technical consolidation. The domestic bean meal oscillated and rebounded, supported by the US soybean prices and technical buying, but constrained by the high arrival volume of imported soybeans in July and the weak spot price. It may return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. The bean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 3020 and 3080 [8]. - **Soybeans**: The US soybean prices fluctuated after rising, waiting for the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in the US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybeans oscillated and rebounded, driven by the rebound of US soybeans, but suppressed by the increasing arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans. The soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4140 and 4240 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - **Bean Meal**: The market is neutral in terms of fundamentals. The basis is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory shows a month - on - month increase and a year - on - year decrease, which is bullish. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward, which is bullish. The long positions of the main contract increased while the funds flowed out, which is bullish. It is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term [8]. - **Soybeans**: The market is neutral in terms of fundamentals. The basis is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The inventory shows a month - on - month decrease and a year - on - year increase, which is bearish. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward, which is bullish. The long positions of the main contract decreased while the funds flowed out, which is bullish. The price is affected by multiple factors and is expected to be range - bound in the short term [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term bullish for US soybeans, but the good recent weather in the US soybean - planting areas supports the short - term strength of the US soybean market, which is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, and the inventory of domestic soybeans and bean meal at oil mills has rebounded since May Day. The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment, and the demand for bean meal has weakened since May Day. However, the tight supply supports the post - festival price of bean meal. Due to the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, the bean meal market has entered a short - term weak - oscillation pattern [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Bean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' bean meal, and weather uncertainties in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in July and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: Expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From July 10th to July 21st, the transaction prices and volumes of bean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal also showed small fluctuations [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From July 11th to July 21st, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and bean meal showed different trends. The spot price of bean meal was relatively weak, and the discount to the futures remained at a relatively high level [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From July 9th to July 21st, the warehouse receipts of bean one, bean two, and bean meal changed, showing a general downward trend [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory over the years [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The report provides the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, Brazil from 2023/24 to 2024/25, showing the comparison with the previous year and the five - year average [33][34][38]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from January to July 2025 show the changes in harvest area, yield, output, and other indicators [41]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China from 2020 to 2025 shows that the peak arrival volume was postponed to June, with an overall increase [44]. 3.5 Position Data - There is no specific position data analysis in the report other than the information about the long positions of the main contracts of bean meal and soybeans mentioned in the daily tips.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is influenced by multiple factors such as US soybean planting weather, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and South American soybean harvest. Both soybeans and soybean meal are expected to remain range - bound in the short term [10][11]. - The price of US soybeans is affected by the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the weather in the soybean - growing areas. The overall good weather in the US soybean - growing areas suppresses the upward movement of the price, while the uncertainty of the weather and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war determine the short - and medium - term trends of the market [33]. - The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are affected by factors like the arrival of imported soybeans, oil mill operations, and downstream demand. The increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the upward movement of prices [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt No relevant information provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is beneficial to US soybeans. The US soybean market has bottomed out and rebounded, and it is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on soybean planting and growth, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in July. The soybean inventory in domestic oil mills has continued to rise since May Day, and the soybean meal inventory in oil mills has continued to rise in July. The soybean market has returned to a fluctuating pattern due to the decline in US soybean prices [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened since May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - holiday price. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a weakly fluctuating pattern [13]. - The low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal supports the short - term price. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - growing areas and the uncertainty of the Sino - US tariff war affect the soybean meal market, which is expected to remain fluctuating in the short term, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - growing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: high arrival of imported soybeans in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: support from the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans [15]. - Bearish factors: continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Weather**: The weather in some US soybean - growing areas is still variable in the short term, which is bullish, but it is expected to be normal in the short term, being neutral or bearish [9]. - **Import Cost**: US soybeans have bottomed out and rebounded. The Sino - US tariff negotiation and the weather in the US soybean - growing areas are still uncertain, which is bullish. The import cost is expected to fluctuate, being neutral or bearish [9]. - **Oil Mill Pressing**: The demand for soybean meal has weakened in the short term, but the oil mill's pressing volume remains high, which is bearish. The demand is expected to be weak in the short term, and the oil mill's operation is expected to decline from a high level, being bullish [9]. - **Transaction**: The enthusiasm for downstream forward stocking has weakened, which is bearish. The market transaction is expected to remain at a low level, being neutral or bearish [9]. - **Oil Mill Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills remains at a low level in the same period of history, which is bullish. With the increase in upstream operation, the inventory of oil mills is expected to continue to rise, being bearish [9]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided. 6. Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - Futures: US soybeans are expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2900 - 3100. Short - term trading within the range is recommended [17]. - Options: Wait and see [19]. Soybeans - Futures: The A2509 contract of soybeans is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4000 - 4200. Short - term trading within the range is recommended [20]. - Options: Wait and see [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is oscillating upwards, supported by uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas and technical buying. The domestic soybean meal market is also rising, driven by the US soybean market and technical buying. However, high imports of soybeans in July and weak spot prices are suppressing the market. In the short - term, it may return to a range - bound pattern, with the M2509 contract expected to fluctuate between 3040 and 3100 [8]. - **For Soybeans**: The US soybean market is rising, supported by the rebound of the oil and fat market and technical buying. The domestic soybean market is also rising, driven by the US soybean market. But the increase in imported soybeans and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybeans are suppressing the market. In the short - term, it is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the expected increase in imported soybeans. The A2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4160 and 4260 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: The market is affected by multiple factors, with the M2509 contract expected to range between 3040 and 3100 [8]. - **Soybeans**: The market is influenced by various factors, with the A2509 contract expected to range between 4160 and 4260 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The short - term progress of China - US tariff negotiations is positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is relatively strong in the short - term, expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. Future trends depend on US soybean planting and growth, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, domestic soybean inventories rebounded from a low level, and soybean meal inventories in oil mills also rebounded from a low level in June. The soybean market has oscillated downward recently due to the decline of US soybeans [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but tight supply supports the post - festival price. With the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a short - term oscillating and weakening pattern [12]. - Low soybean meal inventories in domestic oil mills support short - term price expectations. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in US soybean - growing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war. The soybean meal market will remain oscillating in the short - term, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low soybean meal inventories in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - **Bearish**: High total arrivals of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish**: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Bearish**: Continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybeans [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 2880, with a basis of - 176, indicating a discount to the futures. Oil mill soybean meal inventory is 88.62 tons, a 7.76% increase from last week and a 27.32% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 111, indicating a premium to the futures. Oil mill soybean inventory is 657.49 tons, a 3.31% increase from last week and an 11.18% increase from the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions increased, but funds flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out [10]. 3.6 Other Data - **Soybean and Meal Transaction Data**: From July 9th to 18th, the trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data**: From July 10th to 18th, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal showed an upward - trending oscillation [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From July 8th to 18th, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide data on the supply - demand balance of soybeans globally and in China from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: Include the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, Brazil, and Argentina in different periods from 2023 - 2025 [33][34][38][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: Show the data of the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from January to July 2025, including harvest area, yield, production, inventory, and exports [41]. - **US Soybean Export Inspection Data**: US soybean weekly export inspections decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [42]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Data**: The peak of imported soybean arrivals was postponed to June, with an overall increase [44]. - **Oil Mill Data**: Oil mill soybean inventories increased slightly, soybean meal inventories continued to rise, unexecuted contracts decreased from a high level, and the demand for forward stockpiling increased. The soybean crushing volume in oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal output in June increased year - on - year [45][47][49]. - **Pig - Related Data**: The inventories of pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. Pig prices rebounded recently, while piglet prices remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. Domestic pig - farming profits rebounded from a low level [53][55][59].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range and the central position continues to move up during the new round of US trade policy negotiation window, but caution is needed when testing key positions. For the stock index, unilateral strategy suggests range operation and appropriate multi - allocation on dips [2] - The central bank's increase in open - market investment has improved the bond market sentiment, and the future situation of the tax - period capital and government bond supply needs to be observed. Curve strategy can appropriately bet on steepening [2] - There is more long - short game in the short - term gold market with support at the 60 - day moving average. Buying on dips is recommended for gold and silver, and there may be a phased pulse - type rise in silver [2] - The container shipping index is expected to oscillate strongly. For the EC2508 contract, unilateral operation is recommended to wait and see, and multi - material and short - raw material arbitrage can be considered [2] - Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating, and the decline in apparent demand should be noted. For steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, buying on dips is recommended [2] - For copper, attention should be paid to the Sino - US tariff negotiation rhythm. The aluminum market has a strong expectation of off - season inventory accumulation. For non - ferrous metals, different trading strategies are given according to different varieties [2] - The short - term oil price has rebounded due to geopolitical risks. For different energy and chemical products, various trading strategies such as waiting and seeing, range operation, and buying on dips are recommended according to their fundamentals [2] - For agricultural products, different trading strategies such as short - term long, short - term wait - and - see, and short - selling on rebounds are recommended according to different varieties [2] - For special commodities and new energy products, trading strategies such as waiting and seeing, buying on dips, and short - selling on rallies are recommended according to different varieties [2] Group 3: Summaries by Related Categories Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: The index has broken through the short - term shock range, but caution is needed at key positions. Unilateral strategy suggests range operation and appropriate multi - allocation on dips [2] - **Treasury Bond**: The central bank's open - market operation has improved sentiment, and future capital and supply situations need to be observed. Curve strategy can bet on steepening [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold has support at the 60 - day moving average, and buying on dips is recommended. Silver may have a phased pulse - type rise [2] Shipping and Industrial Materials Sector - **Container Shipping Index**: Expected to oscillate strongly. Unilateral operation on the EC2508 contract should wait and see, and arbitrage opportunities can be considered [2] - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are poor. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand, and buying on dips is recommended [2] - **Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Coke**: Black market sentiment has improved, and buying on dips is recommended [2] Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Attention should be paid to the Sino - US tariff negotiation rhythm. The mid - term surplus pattern remains unchanged [2] - **Aluminum**: There is a strong expectation of off - season inventory accumulation, and different price ranges are given for different varieties [2] Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The short - term oil price has rebounded due to geopolitical risks. Different trading strategies are given for different energy and chemical products according to their fundamentals [2] Agricultural Products Sector - Different trading strategies such as short - term long, short - term wait - and - see, and short - selling on rebounds are recommended for different agricultural products [2] Special Commodities and New Energy Sector - Different trading strategies such as waiting and seeing, buying on dips, and short - selling on rallies are recommended for special commodities and new energy products [2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the macroeconomic environment, investment opportunities, and market dynamics in the context of the Chinese economy and its financial markets. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Investment Opportunities and Economic Outlook** The expectation for the fundamentals has shifted to anticipate improvements by 2026, with short-term investment opportunities becoming more apparent. The current phase of reduced capital expenditure in the midstream manufacturing sector is expected to deepen and persist, leading to a supply-demand balance improvement that will last longer. This sets the stage for potential alpha-driven stock performance extending into 2026 [1] 2. **Market Sentiment and Economic Resilience** The nearing end of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, combined with ongoing stimulus in Europe and positive outcomes from US-China trade negotiations, is expected to enhance economic resilience beyond market expectations. This has contributed to a bullish market atmosphere, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through key levels, thereby increasing risk appetite and spreading profit-making effects across the market [2] 3. **Investment Products and Market Dynamics** A peak in the re-pricing of resident deposits is anticipated in 2025, which will include various investment products such as multi-asset arbitrage and structured products. This is expected to strengthen the market recovery in the fourth quarter of 2025, although the third quarter may not present a clear bull market opportunity due to weaker domestic economic performance [3] 4. **Market Corrections and Structural Choices** The current market does not yet have the conditions for a full-scale opening. The index is expected to rise in the fourth quarter of 2025, with the core bull market anticipated between 2026 and 2027. However, there may be corrections triggered by weak fundamental signals in the third quarter of 2025. The structural investment choices remain focused on high-dividend insurance and bank stocks, although short-term capital logic is shifting [4] 5. **Sector-Specific Insights** The technology sector is highlighted as a short-term focus due to the positive outcomes from US-China tariff negotiations, which may lead to a rebound in capital expenditures for internet platforms. This could drive growth in domestic AI capabilities and the industrial chain [4] 6. **Midstream Manufacturing and Investment Focus** The midstream manufacturing sector is identified as a key area for investment opportunities, particularly as supply-demand dynamics improve by mid-2026. The focus on DPB (Dynamic Pricing Behavior) repair cycles indicates a higher elasticity in short-term investments, reflecting historical trends and thematic investment strategies [5] 7. **Hong Kong Market Outlook** The Hong Kong stock market is expected to lead the previous bull market, with opportunities in new consumption leaders and AI-driven sectors. High-dividend stocks in Hong Kong are considered to offer better value in the current market environment [5] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The discussion emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving economic policies and their implications for market dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China relations and domestic economic adjustments. The potential for market corrections and the timing of investment strategies are critical considerations for investors looking to navigate the upcoming market phases [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. The US soybean market is affected by factors such as weather in the US soybean - producing areas and Sino - US tariff negotiations. Domestic soybean meal is influenced by the increase in imported soybean arrivals and weak spot prices [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also in a short - term range - bound situation, affected by factors such as the increase in imported soybean arrivals, the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the good planting weather in the US suppresses the upward space. The US soybean market is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting and growth, imported soybean arrivals, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories at oil mills increased from low levels. The soybean market was affected by the decline in US soybeans and fluctuated downwards [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supported the post - festival price. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, soybean meal entered a short - term weak - fluctuating pattern [12]. - The low inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills supported short - term price expectations. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for clear information on South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: the total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppressing the price of soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Soybean Prices**: The report provides the trading average prices and trading volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 3 to July 14, as well as the prices of soybean futures and spot soybeans from July 4 to July 14 [15][17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybeans (including soybean No.1 and No.2) and soybean meal from July 2 to July 14 are presented, along with their daily changes [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [30][31]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24), the US (2024), Brazil (2024/25), and Argentina (2024/25) are detailed, including sowing progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, and harvesting rate at different times [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from December 2024 to June 2025 are provided, including data on harvested area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing, and soybean production in Brazil and Argentina [40]. 5. Position Data - Not provided Other Related Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [41]. - The peak of imported soybean arrivals was postponed to June, with an overall increase [43]. - The inventories of soybeans and soybean meal at oil mills continued to rise [44]. - The unexecuted contracts at oil mills increased significantly, indicating an increase in long - term备货 demand [46]. - The soybean crushing volume at oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal production in June increased year - on - year [48]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans and the import soybean futures profit fluctuated slightly [50]. - The inventories of live pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [52]. - The live pig price rebounded recently, while the piglet price remained weak [54]. - The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of live pigs increased slightly [56]. - The domestic live pig - farming profit rebounded from a low level [58].