回顾历史，7月30日，特朗普通过社交平台宣布，从8月1日起，美国将对印度加征25%的关税，随后又在8月6日签署行政令，宣布再对印度的25%关税上加 征25%，作为惩罚其长期从俄罗斯进口能源。对比之下，美国与中国的关税谈判总是雷声大、雨点小，几个月来，中方的24%关税虽然暂时被搁置，却始终 未有实际行动。而美国对印度的态度完全不同，几乎是毫不留情，短短一个星期内两次加征关税，总额直逼50%。这一巨大的反差让印度难以接受，尤其是 美国对印度的惩罚远远超过了对中方的限制。 中美关税延长，印度可能会气到无语！ 根据最新报道，8月12日，中美双方在斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈后发布了联合声明，宣布将自5月以来暂停征收24%的关税的期限再延长90天，只保留剩下10%的 关税。对于印度来说，这一消息无疑是一记重击。毕竟，早在几个月前，美国对印度的关税打击已经让印度受到了极大的压力。 从规则角度来看，美国在关税问题上对中印的区别对待同样令人质疑。美国对印度实施50%关税的理由是惩罚其从俄罗斯进口能源，认为印度的这一行为直 接为俄罗斯提供了资金，支持了俄乌战争，从而威胁到美国的国家利益。然而，中国与印度在能源采购上并无太大区别，且中国对 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Bean Meal**: US soybeans are oscillating and rebounding, with the rise of oils and fats and technical consolidation. Domestic bean meal is oscillating and falling back, affected by profit - taking and technical factors. In the short term, it may enter an oscillating and bullish pattern, with the M2601 contract oscillating in the range of 3080 - 3140 [8]. - **Soybeans**: US soybeans are oscillating and rebounding, while domestic soybeans are oscillating and falling back. Affected by factors such as increased expected imports and new - season domestic soybean production, the short - term trend is neutral, with the A2511 contract oscillating in the range of 3960 - 4060 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No specific content provided for daily hints. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating and rebounding under the influence of relatively positive USDA report data. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, import arrivals, and China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains high in August. Affected by the relatively positive USDA report data in August and the rise of rapeseed meal, domestic bean meal is in a short - term oscillating and bullish pattern [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to low expectations of pig restocking. The recent increase in bean meal demand supports the price, but due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, bean meal returns to an oscillating pattern [12]. - The inventory of domestic oil - mill bean meal continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the uncertainty of the China - US tariff war, bean meal is in a short - term bullish oscillation, awaiting further guidance on South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Bean Meal** - **Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil - mill bean meal, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. - **Soybeans** - **Bullish Factors**: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: Continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, increased Chinese procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: The report provides the transaction average price, trading volume, and price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal from August 12th to August 21st [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: The report lists the futures prices of soybeans (bean one, bean two) and bean meal (near - month, main contract), as well as the spot prices of soybeans and bean meal from August 13th to August 21st [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: The report shows the warehouse receipt data of bean one, bean two, and bean meal from August 11th to August 21st [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global soybean supply - demand balance sheet covers the period from 2015 to 2024, and the domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet covers the same period, including data on harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: It includes the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24, 2024/25), the United States (2024), and Brazil (2024/25) [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The report presents the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from February to August 2025, including data on harvest area, yield, output, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing, and soybean production in Brazil and Argentina [41]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in August is high but declining, with an overall year - on - year increase. The report provides monthly arrival volume data from 2020 to 2025 [44]. 5. Position Data - **Bean Meal**: The main long positions in bean meal are decreasing, and funds are flowing out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main long positions in soybeans are increasing, and funds are flowing in [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Bean Meal - The short - term trend is likely to be in a moderately strong oscillation pattern. The price of M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3100 and 3160. The support comes from factors such as the uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas, slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, and relatively low inventory in domestic oil mills. However, the high volume of imported soybeans arriving in August and the spot price discount limit the upside potential [8]. 2.2 Soybeans - The short - term trend is affected by multiple factors and is in a neutral state. The price of A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3960 and 4060. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand support the price, while the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppress the price [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Bean meal: In the short - term, it may enter a moderately strong oscillation pattern. The price of M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3100 and 3160. - Soybeans: In the short - term, it is affected by multiple factors and is in a neutral state. The price of A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3960 and 4060 [8][10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth and harvest, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China in August remains high, and the inventory of oil mill bean meal is at a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise in rapeseed meal prices, bean meal is in a short - term moderately strong oscillation [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Bean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mill bean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas. - Bearish factors: High volume of imported soybeans arriving in July, the end of Brazilian soybean harvesting, and the continuous expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans. - Bearish factors: Continuous expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Bean Meal - Spot price in East China is 3000, with a basis of - 161, indicating a discount to futures. - Oil mill bean meal inventory is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. 3.4.2 Soybeans - Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 254, indicating a premium to futures. - Oil mill soybean inventory is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - For both bean meal and soybeans, the long positions of the main players are increasing, and capital is flowing in [8][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The US soybean market is oscillating upward, with short - term weather uncertainties and technical consolidation. It awaits the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market is also in an upward oscillation, supported by good demand expectations and technical factors. However, the high volume of imported soybeans arriving in August and the spot price discount limit the upside. It may enter a moderately bullish oscillation pattern in the short term. The domestic soybean market is in a narrow - range oscillation, affected by the US soybean trend and technical factors. The high volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppress the price. It is currently under the interactive influence of the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals [8][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. With relatively good recent weather in US soybean - growing areas, the US soybean market is oscillating upward after being affected by relatively positive data in the US agricultural report. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth, harvesting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China remains high in August, and the soybean meal inventory in oil mills is at a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise in rapeseed meal prices, soybean meal is in a short - term moderately bullish oscillation. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits leads to low expectations for pig replenishment. The recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports the price. Considering the uncertainty in China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal returns to an oscillation pattern within a range. - The soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - growing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war, soybean meal is in a short - term bullish oscillation, awaiting the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans; relatively low domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory; uncertainties in US soybean - growing area weather [13]. - Bearish factors: high volume of imported soybeans arriving in July; the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; expected recovery in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14]. - Bearish factors: continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2990, with a basis of - 165, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward. The main - contract long positions are increasing, and funds are flowing in [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4300, with a basis of 256, indicating a premium to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease from the same period last year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward. The main - contract long positions are increasing, and funds are flowing in [10]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content Other Data - **Soybean and Meal Transaction Data**: From August 7th to 18th, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 2999 to 3086, and the trading volume ranged from 0.15 to 33.1 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2640 to 2660, and the trading volume was relatively low. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Price Data**: From August 8th to 18th, the futures prices of soybean No. 1 (2511), soybean No. 2 (2511), soybean meal near - month (2509), and soybean meal main - contract (2601) all showed certain fluctuations. The spot prices of soybean No. 1 (in Jiamusi), soybean No. 2 (duty - paid price), and soybean meal (in Jiangsu) also changed to some extent [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse - receipt Data**: From August 6th to 18th, the soybean No. 1 warehouse receipts decreased from 13621 to 12632, the soybean No. 2 warehouse receipts remained at 2900 for most of the time, and the soybean meal warehouse receipts were mainly 10925 or 10950 [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - and - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - and - demand balance sheets show the changes in harvest area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress**: The planting, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025 are presented, including data on planting rate, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, harvest rate, etc. [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - and - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - and - demand reports from February to August 2025 show changes in harvest area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [41]. - **Other Market Data**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans is increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year. The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China is decreasing from its high in August but showing an overall year - on - year increase. The soybean inventory in oil mills is slightly increasing, while the soybean meal inventory is slightly decreasing. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have risen to a high and then declined, with an increase in short - term stocking demand. The cost of imported Brazilian soybeans is rising with the increase in US soybean prices, and the profit margin of imported soybeans in the futures market is deteriorating. The pig inventory is rising, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreasing month - on - month. The pig price has recently declined after reaching a high, and the piglet price remains weak. The proportion of large pigs in China is increasing, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs is slightly rising. The domestic pig - farming profit has recently declined [42][44][45][47][51][53][55][57][59].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market in the US is oscillating and rising, with short - term weather uncertainties and short - covering. It is waiting for the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market has risen and then fallen, affected by rapeseed meal and technical adjustments. In the short term, it may enter a moderately strong oscillation pattern. The soybean market in China is oscillating and falling, influenced by the decline of US soybeans and technical adjustments. It is affected by the high arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [8][10]. - The short - term progress of China - US tariff negotiations is favorable for US soybeans. The US soybean market is rising due to relatively positive data from the US agricultural report. The domestic soybean meal market is moderately strong in the short term due to the high arrival of imported soybeans, the relatively high inventory of soybean meal in oil mills, and the positive data from the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent recovery of soybean meal demand supports the price, but due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to an oscillating pattern [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term progress of China - US tariff negotiations is favorable for US soybeans. The US soybean market is rising due to relatively positive data from the US agricultural report. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for the growth and harvest of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in August. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is relatively high. Affected by the relatively positive data from the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, the soybean meal market is moderately strong in the short term [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent recovery of soybean meal demand supports the price, but due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to an oscillating pattern [12]. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and the variables in the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal market is moderately strong in the short term, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal**: - **Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Negative Factors**: High arrival of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. - **Soybeans**: - **Positive Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - **Negative Factors**: The continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppressing the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price is 2980 (East China), with a basis of - 157, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards. The long positions of the main contract have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 244, indicating a premium to futures. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease from the same period last year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downwards. The long positions of the main contract have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10].

Group 1: Oil Market Overview - Since August, crude oil prices have shown a significant downward trend, leading to a decline in domestic high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil prices, with notable drops observed [1] - The crack spread of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil relative to Brent crude oil has rebounded to varying degrees [1] - The risk of a rapid decline in oil prices has eased, partly due to the upcoming meeting between the US and Russian leaders, which may alleviate market concerns about extreme sanctions on Russia tightening supply [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In July, fuel oil arrivals reached a four-month high, with Singapore's net imports rising by 38% in the week ending August 6 [2] - The demand for high-sulfur fuel oil has weakened significantly in the Middle East, with a decrease in Fujairah's marine fuel bunkering volume [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil production remains low in the domestic market, with a shift of 200,000 tons of low-sulfur fuel oil export quotas to refined oil quotas, leading to reduced production enthusiasm among major domestic units [2][3] Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - The short-term supply of high-sulfur fuel oil is supported by temporary operational issues at Mexican refineries, but this does not affect the long-term trend [1] - The overall fundamentals for both high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils are weak, with high-sulfur fuel oil facing greater long-term pressure compared to low-sulfur fuel oil [4] - The price spread between low-sulfur and high-sulfur fuel oils is expected to have further upward potential, with both types likely to maintain a volatile trend in the short to medium term [4]

CONTENTS 目 录 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 需求表现良好，豆粕偏强震荡 （豆粕周报8.4-8.8） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 美国大豆部分产区天气短 | 偏空 | 美国大豆产区天气短期正 | | | 期整体良好 | | 常。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆震荡回落，中美关税 | 偏空 | 进口成本预计维持震荡，中 | | | 谈判和美豆天气仍有变数 | | 性或偏空 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期预期尚好， | 偏空 | 需求短期改善偏淡，油厂开 | | | 油厂压榨量维持高位 ...

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern. The bottom of the US soybean futures is supported by uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas, but the rebound is limited by a bountiful South American harvest and good recent planting weather in the US. In China, increased imports of Brazilian soybeans also contribute to the range - bound trend [8]. - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean market is also likely to move within a range. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the bottom, while the bountiful South American harvest and the expected increase in domestic soybean production limit the upside [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: The M2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060. The fundamentals are neutral, with a negative basis, a positive inventory trend, a positive technical chart, and a positive trend in the main positions [8]. - **Soybeans**: The A2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160. The fundamentals are neutral, with a positive basis, a negative inventory trend, a negative technical chart, and a positive trend in the main positions [10]. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is currently good, and the US soybean futures are expected to oscillate around the 1000 - point mark [12]. - China's imported soybean arrivals remained high in July, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills continued to rise. The soybean meal market has returned to a range - bound pattern due to factors such as the uncertain weather in the US and the China - US trade negotiations [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - **Bullish**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Bearish**: High arrivals of imported soybeans in July, a bountiful South American soybean harvest, and good planting weather in the US [13]. Soybeans - **Bullish**: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Bearish**: Bountiful South American harvest, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Soybean Prices**: The report provides price data for soybean meal and soybeans from July 30 to August 7, including futures and spot prices [15][17]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are presented, showing changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory [31][32]. - **Sowing and Growth Progress**: Sowing, growth, and harvesting progress data for soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025 are provided, which can help analyze supply expectations [33][34][35]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal and Soybean Positions**: The report does not provide specific position data but mentions that the main long positions in soybean meal have increased while funds have flowed out, and the main long positions in soybeans have decreased with funds flowing out [8][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern. The bottom of the US soybean futures is supported by uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas, but the rebound is limited by the good planting weather recently and the bumper harvest in South America. In China, the increase in the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans also affects the domestic soybean meal market. The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 2980 and 3040 [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also in a range - bound situation. The bottom of the domestic soybean futures is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, but the rebound is restricted by the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. The soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4060 and 4160 [10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the US soybean futures are oscillating around the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on soybean planting, growth, import arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained at a high level in July, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills continued to rise. The soybean meal market has returned to an oscillating pattern due to the critical period of US soybean weather and China - US trade negotiations [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. However, the recent increase in soybean meal demand supports the price, and the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations also makes the soybean meal market return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The continuous rise of domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory, the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas, and the variables in the China - US tariff war make the soybean meal market maintain short - term oscillations, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival of domestic imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in South America [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean futures, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppresses the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2910, with a basis of - 116, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil mills' soybean meal is 104.31 tons, a 4.48% increase from last week and a 22.5% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4300, with a basis of 182, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of oil mills' soybeans is 645.59 tons, a 0.52% increase from last week and a 5.08% increase from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract holders decreased, and the funds flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract holders increased, and the funds flowed out [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term, with the M2509 contract oscillating between 2980 and 3040. The US soybean market is affected by factors such as weather and Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the domestic soybean meal market is influenced by import volume and inventory [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also expected to be range - bound, with the A2509 contract fluctuating between 4080 and 4180. It is affected by factors like South American soybean harvest, import volume, and domestic production expectations [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 2980 and 3040, and the soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4080 and 4180 [8][10]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiation progress is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the short - term US market has oscillated downward, expected to oscillate around the 1000 - point mark [12]. - The domestic import soybean arrival volume remained high in July, the oil mill soybean meal inventory continued to rise, and the soybean meal market returned to an oscillating pattern [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig breeding profit has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent increase in soybean meal demand supports the price expectation, and the uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations has led the soybean meal market to return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory continues to rise. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production area and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war, so the soybean meal market will maintain short - term oscillations [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory, and uncertain US soybean production area weather [13]. - Bearish factors: high domestic import soybean arrival volume in July and the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest with a continuous expectation of South American soybean bumper harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expectation of increased domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: continuous expectation of Brazilian soybean bumper harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide data on harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 for the global market and from 2015 to 2024 for the domestic market [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: Include the 2023/24 Argentina soybean planting and harvest progress, 2024 US soybean planting, growth, and harvest progress, 2024/25 Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting and harvest progress [33][34][38]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: Show data from January to July 2025, including harvest area, yield, production, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing, and Brazilian and Argentine soybean production [41]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Volume**: The peak of imported soybean arrival volume was postponed to June, with an overall increase [44]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out, but it is still considered bullish [8]. - For soybeans, the main long positions increased, and funds flowed out, also considered bullish [10].