同日，在岸人民币对美元、离岸人民币对美元围绕7.18上下波动。截至当日9时35分，在岸人民币对美 元报7.1787，日内贬值幅度为0.01%；离岸人民币对美元报7.1802，日内升值幅度为0.04%。 北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）8月5日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场人 民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.1366元，相较前一交易日中间价7.1395元，升值29基点。人民币对美 元中间价连续两个交易日升值，续创2024年11月6日以来的升值高点。 ...

瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)发表机构观点称，中国的宏观形势为人民币带来支撑。二季度GDP 同比增长5.2%，超出市场预期。由于关税风险缓和且提前出口势头强劲，6月出口也有所回升，尤其是 对新兴市场。服务业、投资和离岸资产的资本流出有所放缓，外国投资者的资本流动已企稳。 外汇交易中心数据显示，上周，三大人民币汇率指数均上涨，8月1日，CFETS人民币汇率指数报 96.94，较7月31日上涨0.18；BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数报102.81，较7月31日上涨0.24；SDR货币篮子 人民币汇率指数报91.60，较7月31日上涨0.11。 与此同时，美元指数在99关口下方震荡，截至9时40分，报98.9033。 8月4日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘小幅上涨256点，升破7.21、7.20、7.19三个关口，报 7.1850，前一交易日16时30分收盘报7.2106。截至9时40分，离岸人民币对美元报7.19115。 同日，人民币对美元中间价7.1395，较前一日上调101个基点。 ...

同日，在岸人民币对美元、离岸人民币对美元双双收复7.20关口。截至当日9时35分，在岸人民币对美 元报7.1870，日内升值幅度为0.06%；离岸人民币对美元报7.1897，日内贬值幅度为0.04%。 国家外汇管理局日前召开2025年下半年外汇管理工作交流会指出，2025年以来，外汇管理部门有力维护 外汇市场稳健运行。保持人民币汇率弹性，加强外汇市场"宏观审慎+微观监管"两位一体管理，我国外 汇市场在错综复杂形势下展现出较强韧性。下半年要深化外汇市场发展，继续完善企业汇率风险管理服 务。 北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）8月4日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场人 民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.1395元，相较前一交易日中间价7.1496元，大幅升值101基点。这也 是2024年11月6月以来人民币对美元中间价的升值高点，升幅则创2025年1月21日以来最大。 ...

中国经济网北京8月4日讯 来自中国外汇交易中心的数据显示，今日人民币对美元汇率中间价报 7.1395，较前一交易日调升101个基点。 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年8月4日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1 美元对人民币7.1395元，1欧元对人民币8.2695元，100日元对人民币4.8576元，1港元对人民币0.90952 元，1英镑对人民币9.4919元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6220元，1新西兰元对人民币4.2250元，1新加坡 元对人民币5.5475元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8852元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1890元，人民币1元对1.1330 澳门元，人民币1元对0.59631马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.1050俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.5214南 非兰特，人民币1元对193.85韩元，人民币1元对0.51369阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.52452沙特里亚 尔，人民币1元对48.0119匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51515波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9023丹麦克朗， 人民币1元对1.3500瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4348挪威克朗，人民币1元对5.68538 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, highlighting recent exchange rate movements and the factors influencing these changes [1][3][6]. Exchange Rate Movements - On August 1, the central parity rate of the yuan against the US dollar was reported at 7.1496, a decrease of 2 basis points from the previous day [1]. - Both onshore and offshore yuan depreciated against the dollar, with the onshore rate at 7.2034 and the offshore rate at 7.2136, reflecting daily declines of 0.06% and 0.05% respectively [3][7]. - The yuan's exchange rate reached a two-month low, with a continuous decline over five days leading to a 0.38% drop in July [7]. Factors Influencing Exchange Rate - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) officials indicated that the yuan's exchange rate is influenced by multiple factors, including economic growth, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks [9][10]. - The PBOC emphasized that it does not seek to devalue the yuan for competitive advantages and aims to maintain a stable exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level [10][11]. Market Outlook - Analysts expect the yuan to stabilize at a reasonable equilibrium level in the second half of the year, supported by improving domestic economic conditions and anticipated interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve [10][12]. - The article notes that foreign capital inflows into Chinese assets are expected to continue, providing support for the yuan's stability [11][12]. Industry Impacts - The article outlines the potential impacts of yuan fluctuations on various industries, indicating that a stronger yuan could benefit import-dependent sectors while posing challenges for traditional export-oriented industries [14]. - Specific sectors such as textiles, aviation, and high-tech equipment may see advantages from a stronger yuan, while traditional foreign trade sectors may face difficulties [14].

联储分裂加剧，汇率 拐点未现 华泰期货研究院 2025年08月01日 蔡劭立 F3063489 Z0014617 联系人： 朱思谋 F03142856 — 量价和政策信号— 2 【量价观察】美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率下行 ◆3个月的美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率曲线显示出人民币的升值趋势，Put端波动率高于Call端。 ◆ 美元兑人民币期权波动率回落，市场对美元兑人民币未来波动性的预期减弱。 美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率 Delta为5的美元兑人民币3个月期权隐含波动率 数据来源： 3 Bloomberg Wind 华泰期货研究院 3 4 5 6 7 3M 2025/07/31 3M 2025/06/27 3M 2025/03/28 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2023-04 2023-10 2024-04 2024-10 2025-04 【量价观察】期限结构 20250730（%） 20250723（%） 20250702（%） 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 一月 三月 六月 一年 本周新交所美元兑人民币期货升贴水(-) 本周银行远期升贴水(-) 本周美中利差 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced a slight depreciation of the RMB against the USD, indicating ongoing fluctuations in the foreign exchange market [1] Exchange Rate Summary - The central parity rate of the RMB against the USD was set at 7.1496 on August 1, a decrease of 2 basis points from the previous day's rate of 7.1494 [1] - As of 9:35 AM on the same day, the onshore RMB was quoted at 7.2034 against the USD, reflecting a depreciation of 0.06% [1] - The offshore RMB was reported at 7.2136 against the USD, with a depreciation of 0.05% [1]

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 同日，人民币对美元中间价7.1494，较上一交易日下调53个基点。 美元指数强势拉升，逼近100关口，截至9时30分，报99.7778。 兴业研究认为，支持人民币升值的因素主要包括：境内充裕的美元流动性、股汇正向联动；影响人民币 贬值的因素包括：美元指数反弹，但由于人民币相对于美元指数偏低估，该影响或被削弱，表现为面对 美元升值呈现偏小的贬值弹性，此外密切关注风险偏好的变化。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 黄冰玉 陈佳怡）7月31日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘下跌77 个基点，报7.1900，上一交易日16时30分收盘报7.1823。截至9时30分，离岸人民币对美元报7.19879。 ...

北京商报讯（记者 岳品瑜 董晗萱）7月30日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外 汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.1441元，相较前一交易日中间价7.1511元，调升70个基点。 近日，熊猫债市场迎来首家美资公司的成功发行，摩根士丹利发行5年期20亿元的熊猫债，票面利率仅 1.98%；同时，匈牙利发行3年期40亿元和5年期10亿元的两期熊猫债，分别成为"单笔发行规模最大的 外国政府熊猫债券""首单5年期外国政府熊猫债券"。这反映出，人民币配置价值正日益受到国际资本的 青睐。 截至最新发稿时间9时40分，在岸人民币对美元报7.1736，日内升值0.05%，离岸人民币对美元报 7.1764，升值0.06%。 ...

Core Viewpoints - Since 2025, the RMB/USD exchange rate has experienced fluctuations, initially appreciating, then depreciating, and finally appreciating again, maintaining relative strength overall [3][4] - The RMB has appreciated by 1.79% against the USD, while the USD index has decreased by 9.97% during the same period, indicating a trend of RMB appreciation against the USD and depreciation against a basket of currencies [4] - The rapid decline of the USD index has exceeded market expectations, influenced by various factors including US economic policies and trade tariffs [4][5] Exchange Rate Trends - From the beginning of the year to March 18, the RMB appreciated from 7.3 to 7.22, then weakened to 7.35 by April 9, before appreciating again to around 7.17 by July 25 [4] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index fell from 102.1 at the beginning of the year to approximately 95.7 by July 25, reflecting the RMB's performance against a basket of currencies [4] External Factors Influencing RMB - The decline in the USD index is attributed to several factors, including market expectations of US economic policies and the impact of tariffs on economic growth [4][9] - The uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and the sustainability of US debt has weakened confidence in USD assets, which may constrain the USD index's performance in the medium term [4][5] Domestic Economic Environment - The stable domestic economic policy environment has supported the RMB exchange rate, with a focus on stabilizing employment and enterprises [5][10] - In the first half of the year, exports grew by 5.9%, demonstrating resilience in the foreign trade sector, which has positively impacted the RMB [5][11] Future Outlook for RMB - The RMB exchange rate will continue to be influenced by both internal and external factors, including the USD index and tariff policies, as well as domestic economic recovery and policy management expectations [8][10] - The USD index is expected to experience complex movements, with potential for both upward and downward pressures [9][10] - Domestic macroeconomic policies are anticipated to remain accommodative, supporting industrial profits and enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets [10][11] Policy Management - Authorities are committed to maintaining a stable exchange rate, utilizing various strategies to manage expectations and liquidity in offshore markets [12] - Since May, the RMB middle rate has aligned closely with onshore and offshore spot rates, indicating stability in the exchange rate [12]