光伏行业反内卷

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晚报 | 8月26日主题前瞻
Xuan Gu Bao· 2025-08-25 14:35
Group 1: Rare Earth - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Natural Resources released interim measures for total quantity control management of rare earth mining and smelting separation on August 22 [1] - The new management measures indicate a comprehensive upgrade in the regulatory level and scope of rare earth production control, potentially leading to a tightening of supply and an increase in rare earth prices [1][1] - Analysts predict that the domestic rare earth supply will continue to be tight, driving prices upward [1] Group 2: Innovative Pharmaceuticals - China's pharmaceutical industry ranks second globally, with approximately 30% of innovative drugs under research [2] - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, 387 children's drugs and 147 rare disease drugs have been approved for market, addressing the medication needs of key populations [2] - Analysts believe that the rise of innovative drugs is sustainable, with significant potential for individual products and companies with leading technology platforms [2] Group 3: Photovoltaics - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued an initiative to strengthen industry self-discipline and maintain fair competition, urging downstream enterprises to optimize bidding rules [3] - Analysts expect that the photovoltaic industry will see a recovery in long-term profitability as supply-side policies progress and as the industry addresses current challenges [3][3] - The adjustment of polysilicon prices is anticipated to be accepted by the downstream market, leading to a return of component prices to cost levels [3] Group 4: Carbon Emissions - The Central Committee and the State Council released opinions on promoting green and low-carbon transformation and strengthening the national carbon market [4] - By 2027, the national carbon trading market is expected to cover major industrial sectors, with a significant increase in carbon emission quota prices from 46.60 yuan/ton in 2021 to 91.82 yuan/ton in 2024 [4][4] - The total transaction volume of carbon emission quotas reached 1.89 billion tons in 2024, with a total transaction value of 18.114 billion yuan, marking a new annual high [4] Group 5: Storage - Huawei is set to launch a new AI SSD on August 27, aimed at addressing traditional SSD shortcomings in the AI field [5] - The new SSD is expected to enhance data efficiency, which is crucial for enterprise productivity in the era of AI [5] - Analysts highlight the importance of high-performance storage in the training and inference processes of large models, positioning Huawei as a key player in the infrastructure of computing power [5] Group 6: Brain-Computer Interface - A multi-center clinical trial for brain-machine interface technology focusing on precise diagnosis and treatment of hydrocephalus has been initiated by top medical institutions in China [6] - This project marks a significant advancement in brain-machine interface technology, expanding its applications beyond traditional areas [6] - The integration of brain-machine interface technology into medical services has been facilitated by recent policy support from the National Medical Insurance Administration [6] Group 7: Forestry - The People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies issued a notification to support high-quality development in forestry through financial measures [7] - The forestry sector is evolving beyond traditional timber production to include carbon sink development and ecological tourism [7] - The industry is expected to cover various fields, employing over 100 million people and contributing significantly to the economy [7]
半年盘点| 五家光伏企业半年亏超150个“小目标”,还都警示了这些风险
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-08-25 09:16
8月23日,光伏产业主链企业隆基绿能(601012.SH)、通威股份(600438.SH)、晶澳科技 (002459.SZ)、天合光能(688599.SH)和TCL中环(002129.SZ)发布2025年半年财报,尽管业绩依 旧遇冷,截至今日收盘,除天合光能微跌0.12%,其他四家企业的股价全部飘红。 总市值超3000亿,半年亏超170亿元 虽然市值较巅峰时期普遍回调约六成,但截至第一财经记者今日发稿,隆基绿能、通威股份、晶澳科 技、天合光能和TCL中环的总市值约3359亿元,分别为1264亿元、970亿元、415亿元、366亿元、344亿 元。 不同于今天在二级市场全面飘红的表现,这5家总市值已超3000亿元的光伏企业,上半年均未走出净亏 损的"泥潭",上半年合计亏损172.64亿元,通威股份和TCL中环两家企业亏损近百亿元。 具体来看,隆基绿能净亏损25.69亿元,通威股份净亏损49.55亿元、晶澳科技净亏损25.8亿元、天合光 能净亏损29.18亿元、TCL中环净亏损42.42亿元。 这五家企业中,除了隆基绿能实现同比减亏,其余四家企业未见业绩拐点的"苗头",均呈同比增亏或同 比盈转亏的态势。 综合各家 ...
通威股份(600438):龙头地位稳固,静候“反内卷”推进
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-23 11:59
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, considering it as one of the potential beneficiaries of the ongoing "anti-involution" in the industry [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 40.5 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -5.029 billion RMB, indicating a deeper loss compared to the previous year [1]. - The company achieved a sales volume of 161,300 tons of polysilicon, holding a global market share of approximately 30%, leading the industry. The price of polysilicon has seen a significant increase of 39% from its previous low, which is expected to gradually cover costs and restore profitability [2]. - The company sold 24.52 GW of solar modules in the first half of the year, with explosive growth in overseas markets, particularly in Poland, Romania, and Hungary [2]. - The company maintained its position as the global leader in battery cell sales, with a volume of 49.89 GW, and continues to lead in key competitive metrics such as A-grade ratio and conversion efficiency [3]. - The company has sufficient cash reserves, totaling approximately 33.229 billion RMB, which supports its ability to navigate through market cycles [3]. Financial Forecast - The forecast for the company's net profit attributable to shareholders has been adjusted to -6.16 billion RMB for 2025, 2.972 billion RMB for 2026, and 6.071 billion RMB for 2027, reflecting the competitive advantages in the silicon and battery segments [4]. - Revenue projections for 2023 are set at 139.104 billion RMB, with a growth rate of -2.33% for 2024 and a recovery expected in subsequent years [8]. - The diluted earnings per share are projected to be -1.563 RMB in 2024, improving to 0.660 RMB in 2026 and 1.348 RMB in 2027 [8].
BC技术构建差异化竞争优势 隆基绿能上半年同比大幅减亏
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-08-23 04:05
Core Viewpoint - Longi Green Energy reported a significant reduction in losses for the first half of 2025, with a net profit loss of 2.569 billion yuan, an improvement of over 50% compared to the previous year's loss of 5.231 billion yuan, primarily due to operational efficiency and reduced asset impairment losses [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 32.813 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.83% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -2.569 billion yuan, showing a substantial reduction in losses compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Longi Green Energy's BC technology has established a global reputation for being "efficient, aesthetically pleasing, and reliable," with HPBC 2.0 technology achieving a conversion efficiency of 24.8% and stable yield rates above 97% [2] - The HIBC components have reached a mass production efficiency of 25.9%, with power output exceeding 700W, making it the highest efficiency industrial photovoltaic product globally [2] - The company has over 3,500 authorized patents, including 480 related to BC technology, covering key areas such as passivated contact technology and metallization [2] Group 3: Industry Context - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing challenges due to price declines and a difficult operating environment, with a need for differentiation and technological innovation to overcome the "involution" phenomenon [1][3] - Recent policy signals indicate a shift towards quality breakthroughs in the photovoltaic sector, aiming to curb low-price competition and promote technological innovation [3]
时隔47天,光伏行业反内卷再升级
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-08-22 11:59
这已是工信部连续两月召开光伏座谈会,距离7月3日召开的座谈会仅相隔47天。而相较7月的会议,8月 召开的座谈会在规格、范围以及内容上均有所"升级",也适配在7月座谈会后出台的系列反内卷政策工 具。 8月19日,工业和信息化部、中央社会工作部、国家发展改革委、国务院国资委、市场监管总局、国家 能源局联合召开光伏产业座谈会。 目前光伏行业部分环节出现价格反弹信号。硅料环节,7月之后在国家"反内卷"政策的引导下,期货市 场价格快速反弹,并带动现货市场价格走强。 最近央企集采项目的招标结果也同样出现报价上行。本周开标的两大央企集采项目报价均价都高于此前 水平。 连续两月重磅会议,反内卷全面升级 8月召开的这次会议要求,光伏产业各方要深刻认识规范竞争秩序对光伏产业高质量发展的重要意义, 共同推动产业健康可持续发展。一是加强产业调控。强化光伏产业项目投资管理,以市场化法治化方式 推动落后产能有序退出。二是遏制低价无序竞争。健全价格监测和产品定价机制,打击低于成本价销 售、虚假营销等违法违规行为。三是规范产品质量。打击降低质量管控、虚标产品功率、侵犯知识产权 等行为。四是支持行业自律。发挥行业协会作用,倡导公平竞争、有序发 ...
六部门联合召开光伏产业座谈会反内卷打到“七寸”,硅料、组件价格稳了?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-21 23:08
Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant shift as regulatory bodies intensify efforts to combat low-price competition and improve product quality, aiming for a more sustainable and high-quality development model [1][4][8]. Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry has faced a prolonged period of price decline, with downstream components entering a phase of widespread losses starting in Q4 2023, and upstream polysilicon prices dropping below industry average costs by mid-2024 [3][5]. - A series of meetings and regulatory announcements have been made to address the issues of low-price competition and product quality, including a call for industry self-regulation and innovation [4][8]. Regulatory Actions - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other governmental bodies have initiated discussions to regulate the photovoltaic industry, focusing on curbing low-price competition, ensuring product quality, and promoting technological innovation [6][8]. - The introduction of management measures aims to facilitate the orderly exit of outdated production capacities and to establish a pricing mechanism that discourages below-cost sales [8]. Market Dynamics - Following the regulatory push, there has been a notable increase in polysilicon prices in the futures and spot markets, indicating a potential stabilization of the industry [5][6]. - Despite the upward price movement in polysilicon, downstream prices for battery cells and modules have not yet adjusted due to insufficient demand, leading to a cautious market outlook [7][9]. Quality Concerns - The quality of photovoltaic components has come under scrutiny, with a reported decline in compliance rates from 93%-94% to 69.4%, primarily due to issues like power mislabeling and inadequate testing standards [9][10]. - Industry leaders emphasize the need for a shift from price competition to value competition based on quality and innovation to ensure long-term sustainability [9][10].
回天新材(300041):光伏胶触底 负极胶未来可期
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 12:40
Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.168 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.72%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 143 million yuan, up 4.18% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.097 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.42% [1] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 61 million yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 6.18% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 25.21% [1] - For H1 2025, the company's gross margin was 22.46%, an increase of 3.38 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 6.66%, a slight decrease of 0.12 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 2: Business Segments - In H1 2025, the company's revenue from renewable energy, transportation, and electronics was 770 million yuan, 650 million yuan, and 380 million yuan, showing year-on-year changes of -17.9%, +34.0%, and +23.5% respectively [2] - The sales volume of adhesive products reached approximately 160,000 tons in H1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, with solar adhesive sales up 9.3% and electronic adhesive sales up 29% [2] - The company is a leader in the solar adhesive market, maintaining a leading market share despite ongoing pressures from industry overcapacity and price fluctuations [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company’s solar business subsidiary, Shanghai Huitian, reported a loss in H1 2025, but this loss decreased by approximately 35 million yuan compared to H1 2024, indicating potential recovery in profitability [3] - The company expects significant growth in its negative electrode adhesive segment, with full production and sales of PAA and stable deliveries of SBR, supported by new capacity expected to come online by the end of 2026 [3] - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 205 million yuan and 275 million yuan respectively, with a projected net profit of 357 million yuan for 2027, indicating growth rates of 101.02%, 34.51%, and 29.50% year-on-year [4]
回天新材(300041):25H1点评报告:光伏胶触底,负极胶未来可期
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-08-21 12:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [4] Core Views - The profitability of the photovoltaic sector has bottomed out, while the electronic and automotive sectors are experiencing expected growth [2] - The company is a leader in photovoltaic adhesives, maintaining a leading market share despite ongoing pressures from industry overcapacity and price fluctuations [3] - The company's revenue from renewable energy, transportation, and electronics for the first half of 2025 was 7.7 billion, 6.5 billion, and 3.8 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -17.9%, +34.0%, and +23.5% [2] Financial Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 21.68 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.72%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.43 billion, up 4.18% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for the company in the first half of 2025 was 22.46%, an increase of 3.38 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.66%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s operating cash flow net amount was 0.29 billion, an increase of 69 million compared to the first half of 2024 [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for the company's net profit attributable to shareholders has been adjusted to 2.05 billion and 2.75 billion for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with an expected net profit of 3.57 billion in 2027 [4] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 30.1, 22.4, and 17.3 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]
光伏产业"反内卷"初见成效
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-08-21 04:16
光伏行业"内卷式"竞争的整治正在不断深化。 8月19日,工业和信息化部、中央社会工作部、国家发展改革委、国务院国资委、市场监管总局、国家 能源局联合召开光伏产业座谈会。相关光伏制造企业及发电企业、中国光伏行业协会、有关地方工业和 信息化主管部门负责人参加了会议。 屈放认为,在光伏行业"反内卷"的同时,企业还需通过产品升级和技术革新提升内部效率和利润率,促 进良性循环。 "光伏行业要实现高质量发展,必须彻底跳出'内卷'陷阱,摒弃单纯依靠低价竞争的市场策略,转向以 技术创新、品质提升和绿色低碳为核心的价值竞争。"协鑫科技控股有限公司相关负责人对《证券日 报》记者表示,呼吁全行业共同维护健康有序的市场环境,将竞争维度从低水平的"价格战"升级为高价 值的"技术战"和"绿色战",重点关注低碳技术、产品质量和全生命周期效益等关键指标。 会议要求,光伏产业各方要深刻认识规范竞争秩序对光伏产业高质量发展的重要意义,共同推动产业健 康可持续发展。一是加强产业调控。强化光伏产业项目投资管理,以市场化法治化方式推动落后产能有 序退出。二是遏制低价无序竞争。健全价格监测和产品定价机制,打击低于成本价销售、虚假营销等违 法违规行为。三 ...
“这次打到七寸了?”光伏行业再开“反内卷”会议 硅料、组件价格走向何方?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-21 00:13
Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing significant challenges due to price competition and quality issues, prompting government intervention to regulate the market and promote high-quality development [1][2][4][7]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The photovoltaic industry has experienced a continuous decline in prices over the past two years, leading to widespread losses across the supply chain, particularly in the downstream component sector starting from Q4 2023 [2][3]. - By June 2025, the price of polysilicon fell below 40,000 yuan per ton, which is below the cash cost for many manufacturers, exacerbating the industry's financial difficulties [2][4]. - The industry has seen a drop in the qualification rate of photovoltaic components to 69.4% in August 2024, down from 93%-94% in previous years, indicating a significant decline in product quality [9]. Group 2: Government Intervention - A series of meetings led by various government departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, have been held to address issues of low-price competition and to promote quality standards within the industry [3][6][7]. - The government has proposed measures to strengthen industry regulation, including the management of project investments and the elimination of outdated production capacity [7][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" movement in the photovoltaic industry has led to rising prices in the polysilicon market, while downstream prices for battery cells and components have not yet adjusted due to insufficient demand [4][6]. - Companies are increasingly relying on OEM production due to insufficient order volumes, which has led to a reliance on lower-cost production methods [1][8]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards value competition based on technology innovation and quality improvement, moving away from the previous focus on low-cost competition [9][10].