Core Viewpoint - The ChiNext index experienced a significant pullback of 1.66%, marking the largest single-day decline since July of this year, attributed to profit-taking after a prolonged upward trend and lack of new policy measures from recent meetings [2][3]. Market Analysis - The recent pullback is primarily due to a short-term adjustment after a strong rally, with 19 out of the last 29 trading days showing gains, leading to profit-taking by investors [3]. - The absence of new stimulus measures from a recent important meeting has dampened market expectations, as the language used in the meeting shifted from concerns about external shocks to a focus on positive economic indicators [3]. - Ongoing trade tensions, particularly the lack of significant outcomes from the latest US-China trade talks and the impending implementation of high tariffs, are also contributing to market uncertainty [3]. Future Outlook for ChiNext - The outlook for the ChiNext remains optimistic, supported by ongoing domestic policy initiatives aimed at promoting economic growth and reducing financing costs [4]. - The fundamentals of key sectors within the ChiNext, such as telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, and electronics, are showing improvement, with expected net profit growth of 39% by 2025 [5][7]. - The ChiNext index is projected to have a revenue growth rate of 26% and a net profit growth rate of 39% by 2025, outperforming other major indices [7][10]. Valuation Perspective - The current valuation of the ChiNext index is relatively low, with its valuation percentile below 25% compared to other indices, suggesting potential for future gains [11]. - Historical performance indicates that the ChiNext has previously experienced substantial gains during bull markets, with past increases exceeding 100% in previous cycles, indicating room for further growth in the current market [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.75%, citing economic fluctuations due to trade issues and tariffs [1] Economic Growth and Forecast - Canada experienced strong economic growth in the first quarter due to preemptive exports related to tariff issues, but the GDP is expected to decline by approximately 1.5% in the second quarter [1] - The decline is attributed to a sharp reversal in exports following the initial surge and decreased demand for Canadian goods from the U.S. due to tariff threats [1] - Economic indicators suggest an increasing surplus in the Canadian economy since January [1] Trade Policy and Economic Outlook - Despite recent clarity in U.S. trade policies, the unpredictability of U.S. trade actions and ongoing trade negotiations remain a concern [1] - The Bank of Canada forecasts that under current tariff conditions, economic growth will rebound to about 1% in the second half of the year, with continued economic weakness expected until 2026 [1] - A quicker rebound in economic growth is anticipated if tariff issues are alleviated, while an escalation of these issues could lead to continued economic contraction within the year [1] Interest Rate Decisions - The Bank of Canada previously lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% in March and has kept it unchanged in April and June [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.75%, citing economic fluctuations due to trade issues and tariffs [1] Economic Performance - Canada experienced strong economic growth in the first quarter due to preemptive exports related to tariff issues, but the GDP is expected to decline by approximately 1.5% in the second quarter [1] - The decline is attributed to a sharp reversal in exports following the initial surge and decreased demand for Canadian goods from the U.S. due to tariff threats [1] - Economic indicators suggest an increasing surplus in the Canadian economy since January [1] Trade Policy and Forecast - Despite recent clarity in U.S. trade policies, the unpredictability of U.S. trade actions and ongoing trade negotiations remain a concern, with new industry tariff threats persisting [1] - The Bank of Canada forecasts that under current tariff conditions, economic growth will rebound to about 1% in the second half of the year, supported by stabilizing exports and gradual increases in household spending [1] - However, economic weakness is expected to continue until 2026, with potential for faster growth if tariff issues are resolved or further contraction if they escalate [1] Interest Rate Decisions - The Bank of Canada previously lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% in March, maintaining this rate in April and June [1]

加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆：我们将确保关税问题不会变成通胀问题。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Vice President stated that all current government efforts are focused on addressing tariff issues [1] Group 1 - The government is prioritizing the resolution of tariff problems as a key economic strategy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Brazilian President Lula expressed hope that Trump will consider the importance of Brazil in negotiations regarding tariffs [1] Group 1 - Lula emphasized the significance of Brazil in the context of trade discussions, particularly concerning tariffs [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - Gold prices are expected to fluctuate due to tariff agreements and Federal Reserve independence issues, with prices initially rising before declining [2][9] - Copper prices are supported by positive market sentiment and upcoming tariff implementation, despite potential supply and demand pressures [10][12] - The aluminum sector is experiencing price fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and inventory levels, with long-term demand expected to remain strong [11][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Research Insights - Gold prices are under pressure due to evolving tariff agreements and scrutiny of the Federal Reserve's independence, with a long-term bullish outlook on gold [9] - Copper prices are supported by positive sentiment in the domestic commodity market and upcoming tariff changes, with a long-term optimistic outlook [10] - Aluminum prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors and inventory levels, with expectations of sustained high profitability in the sector [11] Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal index increased by 7.10%, outperforming the broader market by 5.43%, ranking third among 30 sub-industries [12] - The top-performing sectors include tungsten, lithium, and rare earth materials, with significant individual stock gains [12] Metal Prices and Inventory - Prices for various metals, including lithium and cobalt, have shown significant increases, indicating strong demand and market dynamics [22][24][27] - Basic metals have generally seen price increases both domestically and internationally, with specific price movements detailed for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin [27][28] - Inventory levels for metals such as copper and aluminum have shown mixed trends, impacting market supply dynamics [35][36]

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean government, led by Lee Jae-myung, is facing significant challenges regarding tariffs and trade relations with the United States, particularly after a planned high-level economic meeting was abruptly canceled by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - South Korea is attempting to negotiate tariff exemptions with the U.S. by offering deeper industrial cooperation in sectors like shipbuilding and semiconductors [1][3]. - The South Korean government has previously struggled to convince the Trump administration to ease tariffs, indicating a history of diplomatic challenges in this area [3]. - In response to U.S. pressure, South Korea is considering opening its fuel market and encouraging domestic companies to present a substantial investment package to the U.S. [3][4]. Group 2: Domestic and International Implications - South Korea has decided to impose temporary anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled steel plates imported from China, which is seen as a move to protect domestic industries during an investigation [4][6]. - The decision to impose tariffs on Chinese imports is coupled with similar measures against Japanese steel, suggesting a broader strategy rather than a direct attack on China [6]. - The South Korean media has reported that the U.S. is pressuring South Korea to expand the scope of the U.S.-Korea Mutual Defense Treaty to include the entire Indo-Pacific region, particularly concerning Taiwan [6][8]. Group 3: Economic Consequences - China remains South Korea's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade expected to exceed $310 billion in 2024, raising concerns about the economic impact of tariff measures against Chinese goods [8][10]. - The potential involvement of South Korea in Taiwan-related issues could severely damage the political foundation of Sino-Korean relations, reminiscent of past tensions caused by the THAAD missile defense system [8][10]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations - The South Korean business community generally favors maintaining good relations with China, while the government faces pressure from the U.S. to take actions that may harm these relations [10][12]. - Analysts suggest that while South Korea may increase military spending under U.S. pressure, direct involvement in Taiwan conflicts is unlikely due to regional security concerns [10][12]. - The Chinese government has firmly stated its opposition to any agreements that compromise its interests, warning South Korea against using Chinese interests as leverage in negotiations with the U.S. [12][14].

特朗普仍准备在8月1日后继续就关税问题进行谈判。 美国商务部长卢特尼克：8月1日关税截止日期（到期）后不再有宽限期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Brazilian President Lula emphasizes the defense of national sovereignty and protection of Brazil's interests regarding tariff issues, while calling for respect for Brazil's internal affairs [1] Group 1: Tariff Issues - Lula states that Brazil will take reciprocal measures if negotiations with the U.S. are ineffective [1] - The U.S. President Trump announced a 50% tariff on goods imported from Brazil starting August 1 [1] Group 2: Judicial Independence - Lula criticizes Trump's request for Brazil to halt judicial investigations into former President Bolsonaro, labeling it an insult to Brazil's judicial system [1] - Lula asserts that Brazil will not tolerate any form of "insult and intimidation" [1]