Core Viewpoint - The recent interactions between Brazilian President Lula and former U.S. President Trump highlight Brazil's assertiveness in trade negotiations, particularly regarding tariffs and its growing relationship with China, which poses a challenge to U.S. influence in the region [1][3][8]. Group 1: Trade Relations - Brazil has been one of the few countries willing to confront the U.S. on tariff issues, particularly with a 40% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Brazilian goods, which Lula has demanded be lifted [3][5]. - The U.S. has expressed strong dissatisfaction with Brazil's trade practices, especially as Brazil has been increasing its exports of soybeans and corn to China, thereby eroding U.S. market share [1][5]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Lula's firm stance against U.S. tariffs and sanctions reflects Brazil's desire for independence from U.S. influence, especially following the conviction of former President Bolsonaro, who had close ties with Trump [5][6]. - Trump's reaction to Lula's demands was notably subdued, indicating a shift in U.S. strategy towards a more conciliatory approach in light of Brazil's strengthened ties with China [6][8]. Group 3: China-Brazil Relations - Brazil's deepening relationship with China is a significant factor in its negotiations with the U.S., as Brazil has become a key supplier of agricultural products to China, further complicating U.S. interests in the region [8]. - Recent business decisions, such as the choice of a Chinese company over a Dutch one for a nickel mine acquisition, demonstrate Brazil's growing trust in China over the U.S. [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS has been declining significantly, and with capital outflows, the market has been fluctuating widely. It is recommended to stay out of the market during the holiday to control risks and set stop - losses [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [2]. - The main contract is weak, while the far - month contracts are stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to try going long on the 12 and 02 contracts around 1600. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions [2]. - In the context of international instability, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position for arbitrage strategies [2]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then make further judgments [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Freight Indexes - On September 29, SCFIS (European route) was 1120.49 points, down 10.7% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 921.25 points, down 22.8% from the previous period [2]. - On September 26, NCFI (composite index) was 717.36 points, down 8.47% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 614.14 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; NCFI (US West route) was 868.22 points, down 8.11% from the previous period [2]. - On September 26, SCFI was 1114.52 points, down 83.69 points from the previous period; SCFI European line price was 971 USD/TEU, down 7.70% from the previous period; SCFI US West route was 1460 USD/FEU, down 10.76% from the previous period [2]. - CCFI (composite index) was 1087.41 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1401.91 points, down 4.7% from the previous period; CCFI (US West route) was 824.92 points, up 2.4% from the previous period [2]. b. Economic Data - The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The eurozone's September composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The eurozone's September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [2]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the manufacturing sentiment improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities [2]. - The US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52 (August final value 53); the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9 (August final value 54.5); the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.6 (August final value 54.6) [2]. c. Tariff and Trade - The Sino - US tariff extension continues, and there has been no substantial progress in the negotiations. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has decreased slightly. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates [2]. d. Contract Information - On September 29, the main contract 2510 closed at 1115.0, with a decline of 3.11%, a trading volume of 1.67 million lots, and an open interest of 2.93 million lots, a decrease of 3117 lots from the previous day [2]. - The price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [2].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has raised its three-month price targets for gold and silver to $4,000 and $55 per ounce, respectively, following optimistic predictions for gold and silver prices reaching $3,800 and $45 per ounce [1] Group 1: Price Targets - The target for gold has been increased to $4,000 per ounce, reflecting a bullish outlook [1] - The target for silver has been raised significantly to $55 per ounce, indicating a substantial relative value upside as gold approaches $4,000 [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Citigroup suggests maintaining a technical bullish stance in the short term, given the ongoing cyclical and structural tailwinds [1] - Key catalysts to monitor include the court ruling regarding former President Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook and tariff issues [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market continued to rebound, which was in line with the daily report's bottoming - out judgment. The far - month contracts were stronger. It was recommended to control risks by holding an empty position during the holiday and set stop - losses [2]. - The core issue was the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract might be in the bottoming - out process. It was recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4]. - The main contract remained weak in the short - term, while the far - month contracts were stronger, which was in line with the bottoming - out judgment. Risk - preferring investors were advised to try to go long on the 12 and 02 contracts around 1600 [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index - As of September 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1114.52 points, down 83.69 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 971 USD/TEU, down 7.70% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1460 USD/FEU, down 10.76% from the previous period [3]. - As of September 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 717.36 points, down 8.47% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 614.14 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 868.22 points, down 8.11% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1087.41 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1401.91 points, down 4.7% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 824.92 points, up 2.4% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.5, falling back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary value of the service industry PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary value of the Eurozone's composite PMI in September was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index in September was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3]. - In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [4]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in September was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [4]. 3.3 Market Situation - The Sino - US tariff extension continued, and the negotiation had no substantial progress. The tariff war had gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The spot price decreased slightly. The core issue was the trend of spot freight rates, and the main contract might be in the bottoming - out process [4]. - On September 26, the main contract 2510 closed at 1139.0, down 1.86%. The trading volume was 22,000 lots, and the open interest was 32,400 lots, a decrease of 3095 lots from the previous day [4]. - Although liner companies announced a freight rate increase in late October, there were doubts about the implementation of the increase. Under the long - short game in the market, the price fluctuated widely and declined. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3.4 Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract remained weak, and the far - month contracts were stronger, in line with the bottoming - out judgment. Risk - preferring investors were advised to try to go long on the 12 and 02 contracts around 1600. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, and do not hold losing positions. Set stop - losses [5]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still followed the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It was recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5]. - **Long - term Strategy**: For each contract, it was recommended to take profits when the price rose, wait for the price to stabilize after a correction, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [5]. 3.6 Geopolitical News - On September 27, local time, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) was reported to have agreed to a Gaza cease - fire plan proposed by the US, but Hamas had not yet commented on the report. - On September 26, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu defended Israel's military actions in the Gaza Strip and multiple Middle Eastern countries at the UN General Assembly, and his speech was protested by many parties [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is in a bottom - building process under the game of long and short positions. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set. The core issue is the trend of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be at the bottom - building stage. It is advisable to participate with a light position or just observe [1][3]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Freight Index - On September 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% [2]. - On September 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 673.61 points, down 7.65%; for the US - West route, it was 944.89 points, down 23.30% [2]. - On September 19, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1198.21 points, down 199.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8%; for the US - West route, it was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% [2]. - On September 19, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1537.28 points, down 6.2%; for the US - West route, it was 757.45 points, down 2.2% [2]. 3.2 Market Conditions - On September 24, the main contract 2510 closed at 1100.0, with a 2.67% increase, a trading volume of 24,680 lots, and an open interest of 40,900 lots, a decrease of 568 lots from the previous day [3]. - Market pessimism has been repaired. The rise in crude oil prices may have boosted the bullish sentiment, but the market pulled back after rising due to capital withdrawal in the afternoon, showing a strong - side volatile trend [3]. 3.3 Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract is weak, and far - month contracts are strong. It is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for bottom - building opportunities. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when prices rise for each contract, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. 3.4 Policy and Geopolitical Events - The extension of Sino - US tariffs has shown a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the trend of spot freight rates [3]. - On September 23, a ship reported an explosion in the sea area about 222 kilometers east of Aden, Yemen, and the ship and crew were safe [5]. - The United Nations stated that Israel intends to permanently control the Gaza Strip, and in July, Israel's control area in the Gaza Strip expanded to 75% [5]. - The Ministry of Transport and other departments issued an action plan to promote the in - depth integration of container rail - water intermodal transportation from 2025 - 2027, aiming for an average annual growth of about 15% in container rail - water intermodal transportation volume by 2027 [5]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Core Viewpoint - The American plastics industry is expected to face a decline in employment by 1.1% and a decrease in product shipments by 0.5% by 2025 due to uncertainties in tariffs and trade policies [1] Group 1: Employment and Shipment Projections - By 2025, employment in the U.S. plastics industry is projected to decrease by 1.1% [1] - Product shipments in the plastics sector are expected to decline by 0.5% [1] Group 2: Causes of Industry Challenges - The chief economist of PLASTICS, Percy Pineda, attributes the slowdown in manufacturing growth to the uncertainty caused by high tariffs and unpredictable new tariff policies [1] - The ongoing trade disputes are not expected to remain unresolved in the long term, as the global trade environment cannot sustain high costs for steel and aluminum, which are critical raw materials for the plastics industry [1] Group 3: Tariff Implications - The U.S. has expanded the scope of Section 232 tariffs to include imported plastic machinery and molds, adding pressure on the plastics industry [1] - There is a potential for further escalation of tariff pressures, as the U.S. Department of Commerce has restarted the process for including more products with steel and aluminum components under Section 232 tariffs [1] Group 4: Industry Response and Future Outlook - PLASTICS argues that imported plastic machinery and related materials should be considered essential inputs for manufacturing rather than ordinary taxable goods [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, Pineda anticipates more trade negotiations that could alleviate current uncertainties affecting manufacturing, with a projected shipment growth of only 1.3% and a slight employment increase of 0.5% [1] - The current tariff regime aims to encourage domestic companies to replace imports with domestic products and materials, which could benefit the U.S. plastics manufacturing sector if successful [1]

Core Insights - The US stock market is at historical highs, with positive expectations for corporate profit growth as the earnings season approaches [1] - Over 22% of companies in the S&P 500 that have issued third-quarter earnings guidance expect to exceed analyst expectations, the highest rate in a year [1] - The proportion of companies issuing lower-than-expected profit forecasts has dropped to the lowest level in four quarters [1] Market Sentiment - Wall Street analysts project a 6.9% growth rate in earnings for S&P 500 companies in the third quarter, an increase from the 6.7% forecast made in late May [1] - Improved market sentiment indicates greater investor confidence in companies' ability to withstand the impact of tariffs imposed during the Trump administration [1] Tariff Impact - Concerns regarding tariffs have been prevalent, but the actual impact appears to be less severe than anticipated, with companies seemingly absorbing most of the tariff costs [1] - The ongoing debate about the timing and severity of tariff impacts continues, with analysts questioning whether the issues are merely delayed or resolved [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot prices are continuously declining, the situation in the Middle East is volatile, and cargo volume before the National Day is concerning. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1] - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect. The current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] - The main contract remains weak, while the far - month contracts are stronger. Risk - preferring investors are recommended to lightly try to go long on the 2510 contract around 1200 and increase positions on the 2512 contract around 1600. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [3] - In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see or lightly try for the arbitrage strategy. For the long - term strategy, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] Summary According to Related Content Freight Rate Index - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1440.24 points, a decrease of 8.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1349.84 points, an increase of 37.7% from the previous period [2] - On September 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 903.32 points, a decrease of 11.71% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 729.42 points, a decrease of 14.78% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1216.14 points, a decrease of 9.13% from the previous period [2] - On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1398.11 points, a decrease of 46.33 points from the previous period. The SCFI for the European route was 1154 USD/TEU, a decrease of 12.24% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2370 USD/FEU, an increase of 8.27% from the previous period [2] - On September 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1125.30 points, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1537.28 points, a decrease of 6.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 757.45 points, a decrease of 2.2% from the previous period [2] Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, with three - month consecutive improvement and the highest since May 2024, higher than the expected value of 50.7. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2] - In August in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an acceleration in the overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities [2] - In the US in August, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7), and the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [2] Contract Information - On September 16, the main contract 2510 closed at 1169.7, a decrease of 0.10%. The trading volume was 32,600 lots, and the open interest was 47,500 lots, a decrease of 255 lots from the previous day [3] - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin of the company for these contracts was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 was 100 lots [3] Geopolitical Situation - On September 16, Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that the Israeli military was strongly attacking the infrastructure of Hamas armed personnel and would continue the operation until the mission was completed [5] - On September 15, US President Trump said that Israel would not attack Qatar again [5]

Group 1 - Over 300 employees of South Korean companies have returned to South Korea after being detained by the U.S. for 8 days, reuniting with their families [1] - The detention center where the South Korean employees were held had poor living conditions, with around 80 people per room, making basic needs like eating and using the restroom difficult [1] - A lawyer representing the detained employees revealed that U.S. personnel threatened workers with prolonged detention unless they signed voluntary departure agreements [1] Group 2 - On the same day that the South Korean employees were released, the U.S. began to challenge South Korea on tariff issues [1]

Market Performance - On September 4, US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.77%, the Nasdaq up 0.98%, and the S&P 500 up 0.83%, reaching new closing highs [1] - Major tech stocks saw significant gains, with Amazon rising over 4%, Netflix over 2%, and Google reaching a historical high with a 0.68% increase [1] - Chinese concept stocks generally declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 1.11%, and several companies like Alibaba and NIO dropping over 3% [1] Federal Reserve Developments - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding interest rate decisions, with some members advocating for rate cuts while others emphasize inflation risks [6] - The probability of the Fed maintaining rates in September is 0.6%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is 99.4% [6] - Recent comments from New York Fed President John Williams suggest that while a rate cut may be appropriate over time, the impact of tariffs on inflation has been less severe than initially feared [6] Legal and Political Context - The Trump administration has urged the Supreme Court to expedite a ruling on tariffs, claiming that a recent appellate court decision undermines presidential authority in foreign trade matters [3] - The investigation into Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by the Justice Department raises questions about her potential dismissal by Trump, marking a significant escalation in tensions between the administration and the Fed [4][5] - Trump's recent actions, including submitting new arguments to the Supreme Court, reflect ongoing conflicts regarding economic policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve [3][4]