Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views Pig Industry - Recently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has declined, the market supply is relatively loose, and the pig price has weakened. However, the overall slaughter progress in November will slow down, which may boost the pig price to some extent. Currently, the market has entered a range - bound pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread can continue to be held [2]. Oil and Fat Industry - For palm oil, due to concerns about increased production and slowed exports, the futures price has further declined. It is necessary to pay attention to whether it can find support around 4000 ringgit and gradually stop falling and stabilize. Overall, it is expected to show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. For soybean oil, the fundamentals in the US are currently bearish, but the rapid rise of CBOT soybeans has boosted the CBOT soybean oil. In the domestic market, the supply is sufficient and the demand is weak, and the market may either rebound after a decline or directly rebound after a narrow - range oscillation [5]. Corn Industry - Currently, the concentrated supply of corn and the expected selling pressure limit the upward movement of the futures price, and the market is in a low - level oscillation. In the long - term, with low imports and resilient demand, and policy regulation, the price will be supported [6]. Meal Industry - China is expected to purchase 12 million tons of new - crop US soybeans this year, which has led to a sharp rise in the US soybean futures price. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but the cost support is strengthening, and the domestic soybean meal is expected to show a strong trend. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills is tightening, and the rapeseed meal price has risen sharply [8]. Cotton Industry - The purchase of seed cotton is approaching the end, and the cost of new cotton provides strong support for the cotton price. However, the price also faces hedging pressure, and the downstream demand is weak. In the short - term, the cotton price may oscillate within a range [10]. Sugar Industry - The expected increase in the supply surplus and the weakening of energy prices have led to a weak trend in the raw sugar price. However, as the sugar price is currently far below the Brazilian ethanol parity level, some sugar mills may reduce sugar production and increase ethanol production. It is expected that the raw sugar price will be supported around 14 cents per pound in the short - term, but will generally maintain a weak and oscillating trend. The domestic sugar price is also under pressure but is relatively resistant to decline [13]. Egg Industry - In the short - term, the egg market still faces a situation of oversupply, and the price may be in a dilemma of rising or falling. However, with the slow recovery of demand, the price may gradually transition from a stalemate to a slow increase, and it is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300 [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry Futures Indicators - The main contract basis decreased by 32.12% to 465, the price of Live Pig 2605 decreased by 0.80% to 11800 yuan/ton, and the price of Live Pig 2601 decreased by 0.68% to 11735 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 18.75% to - 65, the main contract position increased by 7.26% to 144679, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 10.19% to 185 [2]. Spot Prices - The spot prices in various regions generally decreased, with Henan down 300 yuan/ton to 12200 yuan/ton, Shandong down 200 yuan/ton to 12350 yuan/ton, etc. [2]. Spot Indicators - The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.73% to 158597, the weekly strip price remained unchanged at 18.47, the weekly piglet price decreased by 23.08% to 20 yuan/kg, the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.47 yuan/kg, the weekly slaughter weight decreased by 0.16% to 127.69 kg, the weekly self - breeding profit increased by 51.89% to - 89 yuan/head, the weekly purchased - piglet breeding profit increased by 37.83% to - 180 yuan/head, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 0.07% to 40350000 heads [2]. Oil and Fat Industry Palm Oil - The spot price in Guangdong decreased by 1.15% to 8600 yuan/ton, the futures price of P2601 decreased by 1.14% to 8664 yuan/ton, the basis remained unchanged at - 64, the warehouse receipts increased from 0 to 250, and the import cost decreased by 1.24% to 9123.6 yuan/ton, while the import profit increased by 2.97% to - 460 yuan/ton [5]. Soybean Oil - The price of Y2601 decreased by 0.22% to 8110 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 4.41% to 260, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 27644 [5]. Rapeseed Oil - The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.51% to 9800 yuan/ton, the futures price of OI601 increased by 0.51% to 9470 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 0.61% to 330, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7540 [5]. Spreads - The soybean oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 11.76% to 190, the palm oil 01 - 05 spread decreased by 16.00% to - 58, the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 37.37% to 386, the spot soybean - palm oil spread increased by 23.33% to - 230, the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread increased by 6.31% to - 802, the spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread increased by 5.93% to 1430, and the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread increased by 5.10% to 1360 [5]. Corn Industry Corn - The price of Corn 2601 increased by 0.52% to 2141 yuan/ton, the basis increased to 9, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 6.19% to - 103, the Shekou bulk grain price decreased by 0.88% to 2240 yuan/ton, the north - south trade profit decreased by 102.56% to - 1 yuan/ton, the import profit decreased by 8.29% to 259 yuan/ton, the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning decreased by 9.25% to 628, the position decreased by 0.61% to 1761555, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 63966 [6]. Corn Starch - The price of Corn Starch 2601 increased by 0.53% to 2453 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 18.57% to 57 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.78% to - 105, the 01 starch - corn spread increased by 0.65% to 312, the Shandong starch profit decreased by 49.17% to 61 yuan/ton, the position decreased by 0.09% to 280187, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 0.41% to 12453 [6]. Meal Industry Soybean Meal - The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.66% to 3040 yuan/ton, the futures price of M2601 increased by 0.17% to 3026 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 1500.00% to 14, the import crushing profit for US Gulf in January increased by 3.8% to - 661, the import crushing profit for Brazil in December decreased by 23.8% to - 307, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 42332 [8]. Rapeseed Meal - The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 2.02% to 2520 yuan/ton, the futures price of RM2601 increased by 4.31% to 2491 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 64.63% to 29, the import crushing profit for Canada in January increased by 32.60% to 659, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2955 [8]. Soybean - The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3900 yuan/ton, the futures price of the main soybean contract decreased by 0.63% to 4076 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 12.87% to - 176. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3940 yuan/ton, the futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract increased by 0.48% to 3738 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 8.18% to 202, and the warehouse receipts increased by 2.07% to 7388 [8]. Spreads - The soybean meal 01 - 05 spread decreased by 5.29% to 197, the rapeseed meal 01 - 05 spread increased by 141.30% to 111, the spot soybean - oil ratio decreased by 1.01% to 2.75, the main - contract soybean - oil ratio decreased by 0.39% to 2.68, the spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread decreased by 5.45% to 520, and the 2601 soybean - rapeseed meal spread decreased by 15.48% to 535 [8]. Cotton Industry Futures Market - The price of Cotton 2605 increased by 0.07% to 13812 yuan/ton, the price of Cotton 2601 increased by 0.04% to 13600 yuan/ton, the price of ICE US cotton increased by 0.20% to 65.69 cents per pound, the 5 - 1 spread increased by 50.00% to 15 yuan/ton, the position of the main contract decreased by 0.73% to 573916, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 3.31% to 2494, and the effective forecast increased by 1.45% to 1465 [10]. Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.12% to 14656 yuan/ton, the CC Index of 3128B decreased by 0.01% to 14859 yuan/ton, the FC Index of M: 1% increased by 0.09% to 13242 yuan/ton, the 3128B - 01 contract spread decreased by 2.62% to 1041 yuan/ton, the 3128B - 05 contract spread decreased by 2.13% to 1056 yuan/ton, and the CC Index of 3128B - FC Index of M: 1% spread decreased by 0.80% to 1617 yuan/ton [10]. Industry Situation - The commercial inventory increased by 68.4% to 172.02 million tons, the industrial inventory decreased by 4.3% to 80.93 million tons, the import volume increased by 42.9% to 10 million tons, the bonded area inventory decreased by 25.0% to 0.3 million tons, the yarn inventory days increased by 1.6% to 25.24 days, the grey cloth inventory days increased by 1.0% to 31.43 days, the cotton outbound shipment volume increased by 22.6% to 53.46 million tons, the textile enterprise C32s immediate processing profit increased by 0.1% to - 1824.9 yuan/ton, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles increased by 17.7% to 123.05 billion yuan, the export volume of textile yarns, fabrics, and products decreased by 3.4% to 11.967 billion US dollars, and the export volume of clothing and clothing accessories decreased by 12.0% to 12.453 billion US dollars [10]. Sugar Industry Futures Market - The price of Sugar 2601 increased by 0.29% to 5499 yuan/ton, the price of Sugar 2605 increased by 0.37% to 5433 yuan/ton, the price of ICE raw sugar increased by 1.80% to 14.68 cents per pound, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5.71% to 66 yuan/ton, the position of the main contract increased by 0.01% to 372791, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.90% to 7462, and the effective forecast remained unchanged at 586 [12]. Spot Market - The Nanning spot price remained unchanged at 5750 yuan/ton, the Kunming spot price decreased by 0.26% to 5695 yuan/ton, the Nanning basis decreased by 5.93% to 317, the Kunming basis decreased by 11.78% to 262, the imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) price decreased by 0.62% to 3990 yuan/ton, the imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota) price decreased by 0.65% to 5052 yuan/ton [12]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 9.17% to 10.48 million tons, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi increased by 4.59% to 6.465 million tons, the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi decreased by 41.20% to 0.2666 million tons, the national cumulative sugar sales rate decreased by 2.60% to 93.9%, the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi increased by 4.80% to 93.9%, the national industrial inventory decreased by 41.20% to 0.6821 million tons, the sugar industrial inventory in Guangxi increased by 62.90% to 0.4421 million tons, the sugar industrial inventory in Yunnan increased by 26.60% to 0.3365 million tons, and the sugar import volume increased by 37.50% to 0.55 million tons [12]. Egg Industry Futures and Spot Indicators - The price of the Egg 12 contract increased by 0.38% to 3158 yuan/500KG, the price of the Egg 01 contract increased by 0.87% to 3347 yuan/500KG, the egg - producing area price decreased by 2.15% to 2.88 yuan/jin, the basis decreased by 37.13% to - 278 yuan/500KG, the 12 - 01 spread decreased by 9.88% to - 189 [15]. Industry Indicators - The price of egg - laying chicken chicks increased by 5.66% to 2.8 yuan/chick, the price of culled chickens decreased by 4.20% to 4.11 yuan/jin, the egg - feed ratio increased by 1.28% to 2.38, and the breeding profit increased by 6.36% to - 24.44 yuan/chick [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report Pig Industry - Short - term pig prices may be supported. The current market has entered a range - bound pattern, and the 3 - 7 inverse spread can continue to be held [2] Oil and Fat Industry - Palm oil may gradually stop falling and stabilize around 4000 ringgit. US soybean oil fundamentals are currently bearish, but cost - side support exists. Domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, and the market is in a multi - empty coexistence situation. Dalian palm oil futures are in a downward trend, and soybean oil may experience a rebound after a possible decline [5] Corn Industry - The corn market is currently in a low - level oscillation, with selling pressure limiting the upward movement. In the medium - to - long - term, it will be in a tight - balance pattern with policy support [6] Meal Industry - Domestic soybean meal is expected to show a strong upward trend, and rapeseed meal prices have risen significantly [8] Cotton Industry - Short - term cotton prices may oscillate within a range [10] Sugar Industry - International raw sugar prices are in a weak - oscillation trend, and domestic sugar prices are relatively resistant to decline, maintaining a low - level oscillation [12][13] Egg Industry - Short - term egg prices may be in a situation where they are difficult to rise or fall, and are expected to gradually transition to a slow - rising trend, with prices oscillating in a wide range at the bottom [15] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract basis decreased by 32.12%, and the positions of the main contract increased by 7.26%. The prices of "Live Pig 2605" and "Live Pig 2601" decreased by 0.80% and 0.68% respectively [2] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in various regions decreased, with the largest decline in Hunan at 300 yuan/ton [2] - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.73%, the weekly price of piglets decreased by 23.08%, and the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits increased by 51.89% and 37.83% respectively [2] Oil and Fat Industry - **Palm Oil**: The current price in Guangdong decreased by 1.15%, the futures price of "P2601" decreased by 1.14%, and the basis remained unchanged. The import cost decreased by 1.24%, and the import profit increased by 2.97% [5] - **Soybean Oil**: The current price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.36%, the futures price of "Y2601" decreased by 0.22%, and the basis decreased by 4.41% [5] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The current price in Jiangsu increased by 0.51%, the futures price of "OI601" increased by 0.51%, and the basis increased by 0.61% [5] Corn Industry - **Corn**: The futures price of "Corn 2601" increased by 0.52%, the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port increased by 0.94%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 6.19% [6] - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of "Corn Starch 2601" increased by 0.53%, the basis decreased by 18.57%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.78% [6] Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu increased by 0.66%, the futures price of "M2601" increased by 0.17%, and the basis increased by 1500.00%. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans increased by 3.8%, while that of Brazilian soybeans decreased by 23.8% [8] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu increased by 2.02%, the futures price of "RM2601" increased by 4.31%, and the basis decreased by 64.63%. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed increased by 32.60% [8] Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures price of "Cotton 2605" increased by 0.07%, the price of ICE US cotton increased by 0.20%, and the 5 - 1 spread increased by 50.00% [10] - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of "3128B" decreased by 0.12%, and the CC Index of "3128B" decreased by 0.01% [10] - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory increased by 68.4%, industrial inventory decreased by 4.3%, and imports increased by 42.9% [10] Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures price of "Sugar 2601" increased by 0.29%, the price of ICE raw sugar increased by 1.80%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5.71% [12] - **Spot Market**: The Nanning price remained unchanged, and the Kunming price decreased by 0.26%. The basis in Nanning and Kunming decreased by 5.93% and 11.78% respectively [12] - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production increased by 12.03%, sales increased by 9.17%, and industrial inventory decreased by 41.20% [12] Egg Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the "Egg 12 Contract" increased by 0.38%, and the price of the "Egg 01 Contract" increased by 0.87% [15] - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price decreased by 2.15%, and the basis decreased by 37.13% [15] - **Industry Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicks increased by 5.66%, the price of culled chickens decreased by 4.20%, and the breeding profit increased by 6.36% [15]

农产品日报 | 2025-10-24 郑棉期价延续反弹，内外糖价走势分化 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13575元/吨，较前一日变动+40元/吨，幅度+0.30%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14652元/吨，较前一日变动+9元/吨，现货基差CF01+1077，较前一日变动-31；3128B棉全国均价14784元/吨， 较前一日变动+12元/吨，现货基差CF01+1209，较前一日变动-28。 近期市场资讯，据印度商务部数据显示，8月印度棉花进口量约为6.3万吨，环比（5.8万吨）增加8.4%，同比（4.7 万吨）增加33.9%。据澳大利亚当地行业机构消息，至10月初25年度棉花加工工作接近尾声，进度约95%；检验进 度约90%。根据最新统计数据显示，2025年9月份越南商品出口总额为426.7亿美元，环比下降1.65%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价延续震荡反弹。国际方面，受美国政府停摆影响，产业多项关键数据推迟发布，使得市场缺乏明确 交易线索，波动进一步放大。由于此前USDA对于部分国家的产量调整或尚未到位，新年度全球棉市供需格局预计 仍将趋于宽松。叠加当前北半球新棉集 ...

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][8] Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, short - term prices may weaken due to new cotton listing,增产 expectations, and weak demand, but long - term prices are optimistic due to low initial inventory and consumption resilience [2][3] - For sugar, short - term prices may follow the external market, and long - term prices are bearish due to global surplus expectations [3][5] - For pulp, the fundamental improvement is insufficient, and short - term prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations, with attention on the actual implementation of fourth - quarter demand [7][8] Group 3: Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,540 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton (+0.56%) [1] - Spot: Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,586 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton; national average price was 14,728 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton [1] - Import: In September 2025, China imported 9.5 tons of cotton, a 31.16% increase from the previous month and an 18.67% decrease from the same period last year. In the first nine months of 2025, imports were 68.5 tons, a 69.82% decrease from the same period last year [2] Market Analysis - International: Due to the US government shutdown, key data was postponed, and the new - year global cotton market is expected to be loose. The short - term external market is under pressure [2] - Domestic: Cotton de - stocking is fast, and the new - year market starts with low inventory. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized, limiting the decline of cotton prices [2] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term prices may weaken, but long - term prices are optimistic after seasonal pressure [3] Group 4: Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5438 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.18%) [3] - Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5770 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5740 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Export: Brazil exported 233.46 tons of sugar and molasses in the third week of October, a 2.68% decrease from the same period last year [3] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou sugar futures rose during the day and fell at night following the external market. Brazilian supply is strong, suppressing raw sugar prices, but there is support from the ethanol price [4][5] - In China, short - term supply is sufficient, but the increase in production in the new season may be less than expected [5] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term prices may follow the external market, and long - term prices are bearish [3][5] Group 5: Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2511 contract was 5170 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.27%) [5] - Spot: The price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas softwood pulp mills have announced price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans, but the actual impact on supply is limited, and domestic port inventory remains high [7] - Demand: Weak demand in Europe, the US, and China is the main factor suppressing pulp prices. The traditional peak season has not seen large - scale restocking [7] Strategy - Neutral. Pulp prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of fourth - quarter demand [8]

农产品日报 | 2025-10-10 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13295元/吨，较前一日变动+80元/吨，幅度+0.61%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14755元/吨，较前一日变动-46元/吨，现货基差CF01+1460，较前一日变动-185；3128B棉全国均价14739元/吨， 较前一日变动-20元/吨，现货基差CF01+1444，较前一日变动-203。 近期市场资讯，巴西2025/26年度新棉供应放量，加上海外纺企刚需补库，装运节奏明显加快。9月巴西棉出口量为 17.9万吨，环比（7.7万吨）大幅增加130.8%，同比（17.0万吨）增加5.5%。从当月出口目的地看，中国为主要出 口国，出口量占总量的19%；巴基斯坦及越南出口量排第二，各占比15%；孟加拉出口量排第三，占比14%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价小幅反弹。国际方面，9月USDA报告调增全球棉花产量和消费量，期初库存和期末库存继续调减， 全球库存创近四年低点，不过USDA对于中国等增产国家的产量调整或尚未到位，新年度全球棉市供需格局预计仍 将趋于宽松。叠加当前北半球新棉集中上市，阶段性供应压力增加，而美棉出口 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [4] - Sugar: Neutral [8] - Pulp: Neutral [11] 2. Core Views - Cotton: New cotton production increase expectations continue to suppress the market, and with the weak peak season in September and insufficient demand support, cotton prices still have the risk of further decline [4] - Sugar: The fundamental driving force is still downward, but there is cost support after continuous decline, so the short - term downside space may be limited [8] - Pulp: The current pulp fundamentals have insufficient improvement, the entire industry chain lacks positive driving forces, and short - term pulp prices may remain at the bottom and continue to fluctuate at a low level [11] 3. Summary by Industry Cotton - **Market News and Key Data** - Futures: As of Friday's close, the cotton 2601 contract was at 13,405 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan/ton, a 2.30% decline. Spot: Xinjiang cotton spot price was 14,995 yuan/ton, down 203 yuan/ton. The national weighted average spot price was 15,043 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton [1] - Internationally, from September 12 - 18, US 2025/26 upland cotton net signings were 19,527 tons, a 54% decrease from the previous week. Shipments were 31,116 tons, a 14% increase from the previous week. As of September 23, about 49% of the US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought, an 8 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [1] - Domestically, in August 2025, China's cotton cloth exports were 563 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 8.27% and a year - on - year increase of 14.20%. From January - August 2025, exports were 4.2 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 10.50% [2] - **Market Analysis** - Internationally, the September USDA report increased global cotton production and consumption, and reduced beginning and ending stocks. The US cotton supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but the short - term upside is limited due to slow export sales [3] - Domestically, Xinjiang cottonseed has started to be purchased. The expected panic buying has not occurred. The estimated Xinjiang production is about 7.3 million tons, and the market may face pressure during the peak listing period [3] Sugar - **Market News and Key Data** - Futures: As of Friday's close, the sugar 2601 contract was at 5,478 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase. Spot: Guangxi Nanning's sugar spot price was 5,780 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; Yunnan Kunming's was 5,810 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [5] - Internationally, it is estimated that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of September was 45.92 million tons, a 6.8% year - on - year increase, and sugar production was 3.6 million tons, a 15% year - on - year increase [5][6] - Domestically, as of September 23, two sugar enterprises in Inner Mongolia have started production for the 2025/26 season, and the estimated sugar production is 650,000 - 680,000 tons, slightly increasing from the previous season [6] - **Market Analysis** - Internationally, Brazilian sugar production is increasing, and the short - term supply is strong, suppressing the raw sugar futures price. However, there is support from the ethanol price [7] - Domestically, sugar sales in August were poor, imports reached a new high, and beet sugar has started to be crushed, so the short - term supply is sufficient [7] Pulp - **Market News and Key Data** - Futures: As of Friday's close, the pulp 2511 contract was at 5,016 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton, a 0.04% decline. Spot: The average spot price of "Yinxing" softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,610 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the average price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,110 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [9] - Internationally, in August 2025, European chemical pulp consumption was 700,800 tons, a 2.35% year - on - year increase, and inventory was 707,800 tons, an 11.34% year - on - year increase [9] - Domestically, the total pulp inventory in one region and eight ports decreased by 4.46% week - on - week, with an expanded decline [9] - **Market Analysis** - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans have some positive impact, but the actual transactions in September were poor, and the global supply pressure remains. Domestic imports decreased in the third quarter, but port inventory remains high [10] - Demand: European and American pulp consumption has been weak. Domestic demand is the main factor suppressing pulp prices. Although there is new paper production capacity, effective demand is insufficient, and paper mills' purchasing is cautious [10]

Report Investment Ratings - The overall strategy for the cotton, sugar, and pulp markets is neutral [2][6][8] Core Views - Cotton: New cotton has support before large - scale listing, but pressure will be released during the centralized listing period. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation is not expected to be too loose after seasonal pressure [2] - Sugar: Affected by raw sugar, it may fall below the key support level, but there is cost support. In the medium - term, it should be treated with a bearish view [6] - Pulp: The fundamentals have insufficient improvement, and the short - term price may continue to fluctuate at a low level [8] Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,555 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,024 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,062 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton [1] - India's cotton planting area was 10.964 million hectares, a 2.5% decrease from last year [1] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5497 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton (+0.97%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5780 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5800 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - StoneX predicted that Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 2026/27 season would reach 42.1 million tons, a 5.7% increase [3] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5044 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton (+0.72%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Arauco silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5610 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis Cotton - International: The September USDA report adjusted up global cotton production and consumption, and adjusted down the beginning and ending stocks. The US cotton supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but the export sales progress is slow [1] - Domestic: The cotton de - stocking speed is fast, the commercial inventory is at a low level, and the supply is tight at the end of the year. However, the new - year production increase expectation is strong, and the hedging pressure is large during the new - flower listing period [1] Sugar - Raw sugar: The sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region has increased, and the inventory is accumulating. The production increase expectation in the Northern Hemisphere remains, suppressing the raw sugar price [4] - Zhengzhou sugar: The domestic production and sales in August were not good, the import volume reached a new high, and the supply is sufficient in the short - term [4] Pulp - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have announced price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans, but the actual transactions in September were poor, and the supply pressure remains [7] - Demand: The consumption in Europe and the United States is weak, and the domestic demand is also soft, which suppresses the pulp price [7]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 11, 2025 - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Focus: Agricultural product futures Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: Lack of fundamental drivers, short - term correction [2] - Soybean oil: Uncertain US soybean oil policies, limited themes [2] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed lower, Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [2] - Soybean: Oversold rebound [2] - Corn: Oscillating [2] - Sugar: Focus on Brazilian exports [2] - Cotton: Monitor the situation of new cotton listings [2] - Eggs: Short - term oscillation [2] - Live pigs: Weak spot market, strong policy [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the listing of new peanuts [2] Summary by Product Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil futures had a day - closing price of 9,244 yuan/ton with a - 2.55% decline and a night - closing price of 9,302 yuan/ton with a 0.63% increase. Soybean oil futures had a day - closing price of 8,256 yuan/ton with a - 1.81% decline and a night - closing price of 8,290 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase [4]. - **News**: Malaysia's August palm oil inventory was 2,202,534 tons, a 4.18% month - on - month increase; production was 1,855,008 tons, a 2.35% increase; exports were 1,324,672 tons, a 0.29% decrease; imports were 49,036 tons, a 19.66% decrease. Malaysia's September 1 - 10 palm oil exports decreased by 8.43% (AmSpec) and 1.2% (ITS) compared to the same period last month [5][6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean 2511 had a day - closing price of 3,911 yuan/ton with a - 0.13% decline and a night - closing price of 3,927 yuan/ton with a 0.20% increase. DCE soybean meal 2601 had a day - closing price of 3,066 yuan/ton with a - 0.33% decline and a night - closing price of 3,076 yuan/ton with a 0.39% increase [10]. - **News**: On September 10, CBOT soybeans closed lower due to concerns about Chinese demand and active position adjustments. Analysts expect the USDA to lower US soybean and corn yield forecasts on Friday, but the production is still expected to be high [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity is 0; soybean trend intensity is +1 [12]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2511 had a day - closing price of 2,197 yuan/ton with a - 0.81% decline and a night - closing price of 2,200 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase. C2601 had a day - closing price of 2,170 yuan/ton with a - 0.96% decline and a night - closing price of 2,169 yuan/ton with a - 0.05% decline [14]. - **News**: Northern corn port collection prices were stable, while Guangdong Shekou prices increased. Other related grain prices also had different trends [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [16]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 16.54 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,920 yuan/ton, and the futures主力 price was 5,535 yuan/ton [17]. - **News**: Indian monsoon precipitation increased again. Brazilian sugar exports decreased in July and August. Conab lowered the 25/26 Brazilian sugar production forecast. China's sugar import and production data also had changes [17][18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [20]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601 had a day - closing price of 13,855 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase and a night - closing price of 13,860 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase. ICE cotton futures closed at 66.72 cents/pound, up 0.5% [22]. - **News**: The domestic cotton spot market had slightly better trading, mainly for textile enterprises' rigid demand procurement. The cotton yarn market was generally weak, and the ICE cotton futures rebounded [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [25]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2510 had a closing price of 3,019 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.43% decline, and egg 2601 had a closing price of 3,353 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 1.56% decline [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [26]. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 13,580 yuan/ton, and the futures prices of different contracts also had different values [29]. - **Market Logic**: At the end of the month and the beginning of the month, the group significantly reduced the supply, and the spot price rebounded. However, the weight increased again, and the supply in September was large. The 3 - 5 month cost may decline, and the 7 - month contract may have policy regulation [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Live pig trend intensity is 0 [30]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of different peanut varieties and futures contracts had changes, such as the Liaoning 308 general - purpose peanut price was 7,700 yuan/ton, and PK510 had a closing price of 7,876 yuan/ton with a - 0.63% decline [33]. - **News**: The spot market had different situations in different regions. New peanuts were expected to be listed in October, and some regions had new peanuts with high moisture [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][5][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the global supply - demand pattern has shifted from loose to tight, with potential for improved US cotton supply - demand. Domestic cotton has a tight supply situation at the end of this season, but new - year production increase expectations limit the upside of cotton prices [2] - For sugar, the adjustment of syrup policy may cause short - term negative sentiment, but the low domestic sugar inventory restricts the continuous decline space [5] - For pulp, the current pulp market fundamentals have no significant improvement, and the short - term pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 14,010 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.14%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,352 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,451 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [1] - Overseas: As of August 29, India's new - year cotton planting area was 10.88 million hectares, a 2.3% decrease from last year. As of August 31, Pakistan's new - year ginned cotton equivalent was about 207,000 tons, a 50.5% increase from two weeks ago and an 8.6% increase from last year [1] Market Analysis - International: India extended the tariff - free period, and the USDA adjusted global cotton production and inventory, making the supply - demand pattern tight. The US cotton supply - demand is expected to improve, but the slow export sales limit the upside [2] - Domestic: The domestic cotton de - stocking is fast, and the commercial inventory is at a low level. The late - issued and limited - quantity sliding - scale duty quota did not solve the cotton shortage. With the approaching peak season, the domestic cotton price has strong support, but the new - year production increase and future hedging pressure limit the upside [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. In the short term, there is strong support for Zhengzhou cotton prices before the large - scale listing of new cotton. In the medium term, the peak listing period may face pressure, and there may be a decline if the peak season is disappointing [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,533 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-0.52%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,880 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,845 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [3] - Overseas: Ukraine's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to drop from 1.8 million tons to 1.5 million tons [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's sugar production forecast has been lowered, and Pakistan's sugar purchase supports prices. However, with the peak crushing season in Brazil and the expected increase in the Northern Hemisphere, the upside is limited [5] - Zhengzhou sugar: The high import profit and large - scale imports in July, along with expected processed sugar supply in August - September, put pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to the possible increase in syrup imports in August [5] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The syrup policy adjustment may cause short - term negative sentiment, but the low domestic sugar inventory restricts the decline space [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5,052 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,715 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - Market: The import wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some price fluctuations among different pulp types [6] Market Analysis - Supply: There will be more pulp production capacity put into operation in the second half of the year in China, and the import volume of wood pulp is expected to decline. However, the slow de - stocking at ports and high inventory levels keep the supply pressure high, with hardwood pulp supply being looser [7] - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure is increasing. In China, the demand is weak during the off - season, and the paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. The planned new paper production capacity has not effectively increased the output due to insufficient terminal demand [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The short - term pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level due to the lack of positive drivers in the industry chain [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton: Short - term domestic cotton supply is tightening, and with the arrival of the peak season and the possibility of a rush to purchase, Zhengzhou cotton may show a bullish trend before the large - scale listing of new flowers. Medium - term, due to strong expectations of a bumper harvest in the new year, the market will face pressure during the centralized listing period. If the peak season fails to meet expectations, there may be a decline [3]. - Sugar: Due to the low inventory of domestic sugar and the sugar mills' willingness to support prices, there is some support for Zhengzhou sugar prices, and the short - term decline space may be limited [6]. - Pulp: The current fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and the industry chain lacks positive drivers. Short - term pulp prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 14,025 yuan/ton, a change of - 215 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.51%. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,392 yuan/ton, a change of + 149 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 15,479 yuan/ton, a change of + 151 yuan/ton from the previous day. - Recent market news: In July, Argentina exported 4,131 tons of cotton, a 17.9% decrease from the previous month and a 75% decrease year - on - year. From August 2024 to July 2025, Argentina's cumulative cotton exports were about 87,000 tons, a 26% decrease year - on - year [1]. Market Analysis - International: India extended the temporary tariff exemption period, which supported US cotton. In August, USDA significantly lowered the global cotton output and ending stocks, changing the supply - demand pattern from loose to tight. However, the output adjustments of some production - increasing countries by USDA may not be in place. The supply - demand expectation of US cotton is expected to improve, but the slow export sales progress restricts the upside space. Short - term ICE US cotton may be difficult to break through the 65 - 70 cents oscillation range. - Domestic: The inventory reduction speed of domestic cotton is continuously fast, and the commercial inventory has dropped to a historical low. Although the sliding - scale tariff quota has been issued, it has not effectively solved the problem of tight cotton use in Xinjiang. The supply - tight pattern at the end of this year remains unchanged. With the arrival of the peak season, demand has improved marginally, providing strong support for domestic cotton prices. The new cotton is growing well, and the expectation of a bumper harvest is increasing. Although the pre - sale of new cotton is hot, there may be a rush to purchase in the early stage due to over - capacity of ginning factories. However, the hedging pressure during the centralized listing of new flowers will limit the upside of cotton prices [2]. Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Before the large - scale listing of new flowers, Zhengzhou cotton may show a bullish trend; in the medium - term, there may be pressure during the centralized listing period [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,609 yuan/ton, a change of + 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.09%. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,910 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,825 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Market Analysis - International: Brazil's Conab and other institutions have lowered the sugar production forecast in the central - southern region. Pakistan's purchase of 100,000 tons of sugar has boosted prices. However, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, and the production - increasing expectation in the Northern Hemisphere remains unchanged, so there is limited upside space. - Domestic: The profit of out - of - quota imports has been high for several months, and the import volume in July increased significantly year - on - year. Processed sugar in August - September is expected to impact the domestic spot market, putting pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices [6]. Strategy - Neutral. Due to low domestic sugar inventory and sugar mills' price - supporting intention, the short - term decline space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited [6]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract yesterday was 5,040 yuan/ton, a change of + 22 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.44%. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (U - needle and B - needle) was 5,090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7]. Market Analysis - Supply: There will be more pulp production capacity put into operation in the second half of the year in China, and the import volume of wood pulp is expected to decline. However, due to the slow inventory reduction at ports and high inventory levels, the supply pressure of pulp remains, and the supply of hardwood pulp is looser than that of softwood pulp. - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the United States is weak, and the inventory pressure of global pulp mills is emerging. In China, affected by the traditional off - season, demand is weak, the inventory pressure of finished paper is rising, and paper mills are cautious in raw material procurement. Although there are plans to put into operation a large amount of finished paper production capacity this year, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [8]. Strategy - Neutral. The current fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved, and short - term pulp prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [9].