Core Insights - The real estate market is characterized by a paradox of high vacancy rates alongside soaring property prices, with developers continuing to build new projects despite the apparent oversupply [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The phenomenon of "buying on the rise, not on the fall" is often cited, but the core issue lies in the perception of real estate as an investment tool rather than merely a living space [3]. - The profit motive drives developers to construct new homes, while the influx of buyers further escalates property prices, exacerbating social inequalities and making it harder for genuine homebuyers to purchase homes [5]. Group 2: Government Intervention - The government has recognized the issue and implemented the "housing is for living, not for speculation" policy, which has proven effective even during the pandemic, curbing the upward trend in property prices and challenging developers' cash flow [7]. - As speculative buying decreases and developers scale back on construction, the supply-demand relationship in the real estate market is expected to normalize, potentially resolving the issue of excessive vacant properties [9].

Report Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall economic situation shows that China is in a marginal de - leveraging process. The growth rate of the real - sector's liabilities is expected to decline, and the government's liability growth rate is also trending down. The economic growth rate needs further observation, and the risk preference has increased recently, with the stock - bond ratio favoring stocks [1][2][6]. - It is recommended to use the equity growth style instead of the bond position this week, suggesting an allocation of 60% in the Shanghai Composite 50 Index and 40% in the CSI 1000 Index. In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to outperform. A + H and A - share dividend portfolios are recommended, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [8][9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In September 2025, the real - sector's liability growth rate was 8.9%, expected to remain stable around 8.9% in October and then decline to about 8.5% by the end of the year. The government's liability growth rate was 14.5% in September, expected to drop to around 14.0% in October and 13.0% by the end of the year. The central bank's policies reinforce the judgment of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio [1][2]. - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the money market was generally stable. The one - year Treasury yield rose to 1.47% at the weekend, with an estimated lower limit of about 1.3%. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasuries was stable at 38 basis points. The future yield ranges of the ten - year and thirty - year Treasuries are estimated to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [3]. - **Asset Side**: The physical quantity data in September continued to weaken compared to August. The full - year nominal economic growth target for 2025 is around 4.9%, and it remains to be seen whether this will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3]. 2. Stock - Bond Cost - effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - **Overall Outlook for 2025**: China's asset prices are mainly affected by changes in the national balance sheet. The real GDP growth rate on the asset side is expected to fluctuate between 4 - 5%, and the liability growth rate of the real sector is expected to decline. The stock - bond cost - effectiveness generally favors bonds, but recently, due to the increase in risk preference, it has shifted towards stocks [21][6]. - **Recent Market Performance**: Last week, the money market was stable, risk preference increased significantly over the weekend, resulting in rising stocks and falling bonds. The equity style shifted to growth - oriented, and the stock - bond cost - effectiveness favored stocks. The ten - year Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points to 1.85%, and the one - year Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 1.47% [6]. - **Investment Recommendations**: This week, it is recommended to use the equity growth style instead of the bond position, suggesting an allocation of 60% in the Shanghai Composite 50 Index and 40% in the CSI 1000 Index [8]. 3. Industry Recommendations 3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market rose with shrinking trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.7%, and the ChiNext Index rose 8.1%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, communication, electronics, power equipment, machinery, and petroleum and petrochemicals had the largest increases, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, food and beverage, and beauty care had the largest declines [30]. 3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of October 24, the top five industries in terms of crowding were electronics, power equipment, machinery, computer, and communication, while the bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, textile and apparel, social services, and steel. The trading volume of the entire A - share market decreased compared to last week [33][34]. 3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, communication, electronics, power equipment, machinery, and petroleum and petrochemicals had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, food and beverage, beauty care, and others had the smallest increases. Industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations include banking, insurance, petroleum and petrochemicals, transportation, and others [38][39]. 3.4 Industry Prosperity - **External Demand**: There were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI declined from 50.9 in September to 50.8, and most major economies' PMIs decreased. The CCFI index rose by 2.02% in the latest week, and port cargo throughput increased. South Korea's export growth rate decreased in October, while Vietnam's increased [43]. - **Domestic Demand**: The second - hand housing price decreased in the latest week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. Highway truck traffic increased, the capacity utilization rate of ten industries declined from September to October, automobile sales were at a relatively high level, and new - home sales were at a historical low [43]. 3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the third week of October (October 20 - 24), some active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of October 24, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 4.2 trillion yuan, slightly higher than 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [60]. 3.6 Industry Recommendations - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond cost - effectiveness favors equities to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to outperform. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio consists of 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio consists of 20 A - shares, mainly concentrated in banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation industries [64].

Core Insights - The real estate market is facing a "cold winter," with high housing prices no longer being the primary concern, as new challenges emerge [1][8] - The perception of housing as a necessity for major life events has elevated its value, contributing to the ongoing pressure on homebuyers [1][3] - Despite a sufficient total housing supply, high prices continue to limit purchasing power for many, leading to a significant wealth gap [3][4] Market Dynamics - There is a persistent narrative about housing shortages and impending price increases, creating urgency among buyers, but recent trends indicate a cooling market [3][5] - Government policies aimed at curbing excessive real estate speculation have been implemented, including increased down payment requirements and tightened loan approvals [4][5] - Some cities have seen a decline in housing prices, prompting cautious behavior among potential buyers who are waiting for prices to meet their expectations [7][8] Developer and Investor Behavior - Developers are resorting to aggressive price cuts to recover funds, which introduces instability into the market and disrupts normal market order [7] - Speculators are under pressure to sell off properties due to potential price declines, leading to significant discounts in the secondary housing market [7][8] - The shift towards a more rational market, where housing is viewed primarily as a necessity rather than an investment, is becoming evident [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is undergoing significant changes, with predictions indicating a continued decline in property values and a shift towards housing as a necessity rather than an investment opportunity [1][13]. Market Performance - From January to May 2025, the national sales area of new commercial housing was 350 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, while sales revenue was 3.4 trillion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year [4]. - The prices of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities have been declining for 28 consecutive months, marking an unprecedented situation in the past two decades [6]. Market Drivers - Changes in population structure are a fundamental driver, with urban housing ownership rates reaching 96%, and 42% of families owning two or more properties, indicating that housing is no longer a scarce commodity [7]. - Policy shifts since 2019 have emphasized "housing for living, not for speculation," with recent government reports focusing on stabilizing the housing market and promoting affordable housing [7]. - The government plans to introduce 1.2 million units of affordable housing annually over the next five years, which will divert demand from the commercial housing market [7]. Financing Environment - The tightening of financing conditions is significantly impacting the market, with major real estate companies facing a debt repayment peak in 2025, totaling approximately 3 trillion yuan [8]. - Many developers are resorting to price reductions to recover funds, indicating a drastic shift in market dynamics [8]. Future Market Outlook - Predictions suggest that the national sales area of commercial housing may continue to decline by about 6% in 2026, with a potential stabilization in optimistic scenarios due to policy implementations [9]. - In major cities, property prices are expected to remain relatively stable, with annual growth rates around 2%, while many third and fourth-tier cities may face greater downward pressure [9]. Investment Perspective - The notion that cash is more reliable than property is gaining traction, as the appreciation potential of real estate diminishes [9]. - The cost of holding properties is increasing, particularly for families with multiple properties, as property tax trials may expand in the coming years [9]. Opportunities - New rental housing projects in core cities are emerging as potential growth points in the real estate sector, supported by government initiatives [10].

Core Insights - The central theme of the articles is the transition of China's real estate industry towards "high-quality development," as emphasized in the recent Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, marking a shift from quantity expansion to quality enhancement [1][5][7]. Group 1: Policy Framework and Industry Transition - The Fourth Plenary Session's focus on "high-quality development" indicates a strategic upgrade in the real estate sector, moving from short-term market rescue to long-term foundational building [7]. - The policy framework includes a combination of measures aimed at addressing current market contradictions and outlining a clear path for the new model of real estate development, which emphasizes quality over quantity [1][3][7]. - The government aims to enhance housing quality through standards that prioritize safety, comfort, sustainability, and intelligence, as outlined in the new residential project regulations [3][6]. Group 2: Achievements and Developments - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, approximately 50 billion square meters of new residential properties were sold, and over 24,000 old urban communities were renovated, benefiting over 40 million households [2][3]. - The "guarantee housing" initiative has successfully delivered over 7.5 million units of sold but undelivered homes, stabilizing market expectations and preventing systemic risks [3]. - The housing security system has been significantly improved, with over 11 million units of various types of affordable housing constructed, benefiting more than 30 million people [2]. Group 3: Future Directions and Expectations - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to focus on urban renewal, improving housing security, and constructing high-quality homes, laying the groundwork for a new pattern of high-quality development in real estate [9]. - The emphasis on urban renewal is anticipated to stimulate investment and consumption, while also addressing the housing needs of young people and new residents in cities [6][9]. - The real estate sector is expected to continue adhering to the "housing is for living, not for speculation" principle, with a focus on a balanced supply system that integrates both market and security aspects [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes "promoting high-quality development" in the real estate sector, marking a shift from quantity expansion to quality enhancement in the industry [3][6]. Group 1: Policy Framework and Industry Transition - The policy framework focuses on "strict control of increment and optimization of stock," aiming for a quality-oriented approach in housing construction and financing support for real estate companies [3][4]. - The transition to high-quality development is seen as essential for the healthy growth of the industry and meeting the public's aspirations for better living conditions [3][4]. Group 2: Achievements During the 14th Five-Year Plan - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, approximately 50 billion square meters of new residential properties were sold, and the stock housing market has expanded significantly, with 15 provinces seeing higher transaction volumes in second-hand homes than new ones [4]. - Over 1.1 million units of various types of affordable housing were constructed, benefiting over 30 million people, showcasing the government's commitment to addressing housing issues [4][5]. Group 3: High-Quality Development Goals - The high-quality development goal includes enhancing the construction quality of homes and improving industry management and product supply systems [7][8]. - The focus is on aligning high-quality development with housing goals, ensuring economic rationality and quality improvement in the sector [8]. Group 4: New Development Model - The new development model aims to deepen reforms in the real estate sector, improve the housing supply system, and establish a new mechanism linking people, housing, land, and finance [5][9]. - The emphasis on urban renewal and the construction of "good houses" is expected to stimulate investment and consumption, providing ongoing momentum for the real estate sector [9].

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者 李贝贝 上海报道 "十四五"收官在即。10月23日，中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议公报明确提出"推动房 地产高质量发展"，为"十五五"房地产行业发展定调。 58安居客研究院院长张波向《华夏时报》记者分析指出，四中全会公报中提出的"推动房地产高质量发 展"，标志着行业发展已明确进入下一个阶段，即从规模扩张转向聚焦于提升品质与内涵。推动行业 从"量"的扩张转向"质"的提升："这不仅是行业健康发展的必然要求，也是满足人民群众对美好生活向 往的关键路径。" 中原地产首席分析师张大伟认为，在房地产市场处于深度调整与转型关键期的背景下，本次会议以"推 动高质量发展"为核心的政策框架清晰落地，"从'严控增量、优化存量'的供需调节到'好房子'建设的品 质导向，从房企融资支持到城市更新提速，一系列政策组合拳既回应了当前市场的突出矛盾，更勾勒出 房地产发展新模式的清晰路径，为行业企稳回升注入强劲动力。" "十四五"房地产行业"很不平凡" 2025年，是"十四五"收官之年。10月11日，住房和城乡建设部部长倪虹在国务院新闻办公室举行的"高 质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with a comprehensive decline in second-hand housing prices across 70 major cities for the first time since the housing reform in 1998, indicating a critical shift in the market dynamics [1] Group 1: Price Trends - In September, second-hand housing prices in 70 cities fell by 0.83% month-on-month and 5.2% year-on-year, with Beijing and Shanghai experiencing declines of 6.1% and 5.8% respectively [1] - Certain second-tier cities, such as Zhengzhou and Harbin, saw year-on-year price drops exceeding 8% [1] Group 2: Sales and Construction Activity - The sales area of commercial housing decreased by 18.7% year-on-year in the first three quarters, while new construction area dropped by 25.3% [1] - Real estate developers have seen investment growth rates decline for 12 consecutive months [1] Group 3: Policy Responses - The "recognizing house but not loan" policy introduced in early September aims to stimulate demand by lowering down payment ratios, potentially releasing around 1.2 trillion yuan in purchasing power [1] - The People's Bank of China provided 300 billion yuan in funds to policy banks to stabilize the industry chain through investment multiplier effects [1] - Over 200 regulatory measures have been implemented across various regions since the beginning of 2025, including the removal of purchase restrictions in 39 cities and tax incentives in 22 cities [1] Group 4: Regional Disparities - There is a notable regional disparity in the real estate market, with core cities in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta showing stronger price resilience, while resource-based and third- and fourth-tier cities are facing significant challenges [3] Group 5: Impact on Related Industries - The ongoing decline in the real estate market has adversely affected related industries, with the construction materials sector's value added decreasing by 7.2% and home appliance retail sales dropping by 12.5% from January to September [5] - Local government revenue from land sales has decreased by 18.3% due to falling land transfer income [5] Group 6: Market Transformation - Experts believe the real estate market is transitioning from a "high leverage, high turnover" model to a "refined, service-oriented" approach, with projections indicating that property management and related services could form a trillion-yuan market by 2026 [7] - The adjustment in the real estate market is seen as both a cyclical necessity and a required phase for transforming development models [7] Group 7: Policy Direction - The government is gradually returning to the essence of housing as a livelihood issue, emphasizing the need for stable policies and supply-side structural reforms to foster new growth points [9]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is facing significant challenges, with declining prices in major cities and a lack of consumer interest in purchasing homes, despite government policies aimed at stimulating the market [1][5][34]. Group 1: Market Trends - Housing prices have been on a downward trend since 2017, with significant declines in areas like Beijing, where some properties have lost up to 50% of their value [3][12]. - The average monthly salary for most individuals is around 4,000-5,000 yuan, which has not seen substantial growth over the past decade, making it difficult for young people to afford housing [7][8]. - The birth rate in China has halved from 17 million in 2017 to 9.54 million in 2024, indicating a growing trend of young people choosing not to marry or have children due to financial constraints [12][10]. Group 2: Government Policies - The government has implemented policies such as "housing is for living, not for speculation" to curb real estate speculation and stabilize the market [34][36]. - A new housing rental regulation was introduced to address the vulnerabilities of renting, aiming to provide more security for tenants [40][42]. - The government is also focusing on understanding the concerns of young people through social media to develop policies that can stimulate consumption and economic growth [45][47]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The real estate market's decline is linked to broader economic issues, including potential job losses and social unrest if the situation worsens [15][17]. - The oversupply of housing has led to a situation where many homeowners are eager to sell, fearing that prices will not recover [27][29]. - The disparity between those who bought properties at lower prices and current buyers has created a wealth transfer dynamic, leading to dissatisfaction among younger generations [22][24].

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has undergone a significant restructuring during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with approximately 3000 optimization policies introduced nationwide since 2022 to stabilize the market and reduce speculation [1][2][5] Policy Shift - The policy focus has shifted from suppressing speculation to stabilizing the market, with the central government emphasizing "housing is for living, not for speculation" since 2016 [4] - A series of meetings, including the Central Political Bureau meeting, have reinforced the commitment to stabilize the real estate market [5] Measures to Lower Costs - Various measures have been implemented to reduce home purchasing costs and thresholds, including lowering the first home loan interest rate to a historical low of 3.5% and reducing the down payment ratio to 15% [2][6] - Financial policies have been adjusted, including multiple reductions in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and public housing loan rates, to support homebuyers [6][9] Relaxation of Purchase Restrictions - Many cities have relaxed or eliminated purchase restrictions, with second-tier cities like Nanjing and Hefei fully lifting such policies in 2023 [11][14] - As of now, only a few cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, and certain areas in Hainan, still have purchase restrictions in place [14] Positive Outcomes - The real estate market has seen positive results during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with approximately 5 billion square meters of new residential sales recorded [16] - Over 7 million units of previously sold but undelivered housing have been successfully delivered, protecting the rights of homebuyers [18] Urban Renewal and Construction Industry Transformation - Urban renewal efforts have improved living conditions for over 110 million people through the renovation of old neighborhoods and the addition of amenities like elevators and parking spaces [20][26] - The construction industry has experienced a transformation towards high-quality development, with a total output value reaching 32.7 trillion yuan in 2024 [24][26]