Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is at a critical juncture in 2025, with a stable trend expected to continue, supported by ongoing accommodative policies [1] Market Data Summary - As of May 31, 2025, the overall real estate market shows signs of stabilization, with new home supply significantly decreasing, while transaction volumes remained stable compared to April, and year-on-year growth is positive [3] - In May, the average price of new homes in 100 cities was 16,815 yuan per square meter, a month-on-month increase of 0.30% and a year-on-year increase of 2.56%. Conversely, the average price of second-hand homes was 13,794 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.71% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.24% [4] - The new home market is improving, but the second-hand market is still undergoing significant adjustments, indicating that a full recovery in the real estate market will take considerable time [4] Future Market Trends - The market faces considerable pressure in June and the second half of the year, with developers expected to leverage promotional activities to boost transaction volumes [6] - Future market trends will depend on three core dimensions: the sustainability of policies, the economic fundamentals, and corporate behavior. Recent financial policies have lowered mortgage rates, supporting housing demand, and a continued accommodative policy stance is anticipated [7] - The recovery in core cities is seen as a starting point, but sustained recovery will require ongoing policy support and strong economic fundamentals [7]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has indicated a cautious approach, preferring to wait for clearer signals from fiscal and trade policies as well as economic responses before making further interest rate decisions [1] - Market expectations have shifted, with traders withdrawing bets on a rate cut in June, anticipating a pause in policy until the July meeting [1] - Futures market positions suggest a probability of over 50% for a rate cut by the end of September, indicating a bet on either easing inflation or worsening economic conditions necessitating further stimulus [1]

Core Viewpoint - Mitsubishi UFJ suggests that the Bank of Indonesia may lower its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% due to the strengthening of the Indonesian rupiah against the US dollar, which provides room for monetary easing [1] Economic Indicators - Indonesia's economic growth has slowed, with actual GDP growth year-on-year decreasing from 5.02% in Q4 2024 to 4.87% [1] - Core inflation in Indonesia has been well-controlled, remaining stable at 2.5% year-on-year in April [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed slight declines at the opening on May 16, with the CSI 300 index closing at 3907.2 and the A500 index at 4577.84, recovering the technical gap formed since the tariff storm began on April 2 [1] - Goldman Sachs raised the 12-month target for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to 84 points and 4600 points respectively, indicating potential increases of 11% and 17%, while maintaining an "overweight" rating on Chinese stocks [1] - Nomura significantly upgraded its rating on Chinese stocks to tactical overweight, citing the temporary reduction in tariffs between China and the U.S. as a major surprise that could support market sentiment in the short term [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs suggested focusing on multiple themes to capture excess returns, highlighting that the internet and service sectors will benefit from consumption recovery and accelerated digital transformation [1] - In the context of a policy easing cycle, quality regional banks and leading real estate companies are expected to see valuation recovery, while the infrastructure and AI industry chains are also worth attention [1] - The A500 Index ETF (560610) focuses on core A-share assets and provides comprehensive coverage of the CSI secondary industry, with a balanced industry distribution and a higher weight in emerging sector leaders [2]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised the 12-month targets for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to 84 points and 4600 points, indicating potential upside of 11% and 17% respectively, while maintaining an overweight rating on Chinese stocks [2] - This marks the second upgrade of Chinese stock ratings by Goldman Sachs within the month, with a previous report on May 8 also maintaining an overweight rating and raising earnings per share forecasts for major indices in the Chinese market for 2025 [2] - The Chinese stock market has fully recovered losses since the U.S. "Freedom Day," with the MSCI China Index, CSI 300 Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index exceeding early April highs by approximately 2% to 4% as of May 14 [2] Group 2 - The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions has led Goldman Sachs to raise economic growth expectations for both countries and lower the likelihood of a U.S. recession, while also adjusting the timeline for potential Fed rate cuts [3] - Goldman Sachs suggests focusing on several themes to capture excess returns in the Chinese stock market, particularly in the domestic demand-driven sectors such as internet and service industries, which are expected to benefit from consumption recovery and accelerated digital transformation [3] - The infrastructure industry chain, including building materials, engineering machinery, and new energy vehicles, is anticipated to see solid development due to policy stimulus [3] Group 3 - Other foreign investment banks, including Nomura, UBS, and Invesco, have also expressed optimism about the performance of the Chinese market, with Nomura upgrading its rating on Chinese stocks to tactical overweight [4] - The reduction of tariffs between the U.S. and China is viewed as a significant surprise that could support market sentiment and sustain the recent rebound in the Chinese stock market [4] - Given the current discount of the A-share market compared to global emerging markets, there is an expectation of continued net inflows of global capital into the Chinese market [4]

Group 1 - The short-term bond ETFs have seen significant growth, with the short bond ETF reaching a record high of 39.162 billion yuan, and the city investment bond ETF also hitting a new high of nearly 17 billion yuan [1] - The current market discussion is focused on whether there is still room for interest rate declines in the second quarter, with optimistic institutions expecting further easing in the bond market [1][2] - The overall bond ETF scale managed by Hai Fu Tong Fund has surpassed 70 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest in bond products [1] Group 2 - Short-term market sentiment is improving as external negative factors diminish, with expectations for a return to technology growth in the market during May and June [2] - The monetary market rates need to be lowered to alleviate the current low-interest spread in the financial system, which could lead to a downward trend in actual interest rates [2] - The bond market is expected to benefit from reduced supply pressure and ongoing expectations for policy easing, suggesting a favorable environment for bond investments in the second and third quarters [2][3] Group 3 - The market is shifting focus from external risks to domestic economic fundamentals, with expectations for strong export data and continued economic growth in the second quarter [3] - The positive outcomes from US-China trade negotiations may improve short-term risk sentiment, potentially leading to a rise in interest rates, although the effects of monetary easing have yet to fully materialize [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a volume contraction and most broad-based indices recorded declines at the close [1] - The Politburo meeting's announcement was significantly more optimistic than expected, leading to a surge in Hong Kong and FTSE A50 indices [1][2] - The meeting indicated that the GDP growth target of around 5% for 2024 is likely to be achieved, boosting market confidence [1][2] Group 2 - The meeting emphasized the implementation of more proactive macro policies to stimulate domestic demand and promote innovation, which is seen as a positive outlook for 2025 [1][2] - The focus on stabilizing the real estate and stock markets is expected to eliminate risks of significant declines, encouraging capital inflows [1][2] Group 3 - The market adjustment was primarily due to concerns over policy uncertainties ahead of important meetings, leading to some investors withdrawing funds [3] - The dividend index and large-cap indices saw gains, while the ChiNext and small-cap indices experienced larger declines [4] Group 4 - The dividend style remains supported, while growth-oriented stocks have shown a notable pullback, indicating a decrease in market risk appetite [5] - Long-term capital is expected to be a significant source of incremental funds in the market, with the dividend style likely to perform well [5] Group 5 - A sharp rise in the market is not expected to be sustainable, and investors are advised to avoid chasing high prices after significant increases [6] - The total trading volume for the day was 16,345 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,543 billion yuan from the previous trading day [9]