Core Insights - The rally in global equities in 2025 was not hindered by the significant impact of tariffs [1] - Emerging markets emerged as the best-performing major regional indices in 2025 [1]

Group 1 - Southeast Asian emerging markets are expected to see their first consecutive months of foreign net inflow in nearly 16 months, indicating a renewed interest from investors after a prolonged period of capital outflow [1] - From January to date, foreign investors have net invested $719 million in the region, following a net inflow of $291 million in December last year [1] - Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia have attracted the largest share of this capital inflow, driven by relatively low valuation levels and economic growth potential [1] Group 2 - Multiple factors are supporting the capital inflow, including attractive valuations, improved macroeconomic stability, and reduced dependence on the US dollar [2] - The current capital inflow reflects a cautious reallocation trend, with investors optimizing their portfolio structures to reduce over-reliance on single markets or currencies [2] - This shift in capital flow indicates that emerging markets, supported by domestic demand and relatively manageable geopolitical risks, are increasingly attracting international capital amid rising global uncertainties [2]

Market Performance - Emerging markets continued to rise, with MSCI Global up by 1.9%, MSCI Developed up by 1.3%, and MSCI Emerging up by 6.8%[9] - The Hang Seng Index showed the best performance among emerging markets, increasing by 4.0%[9] - The 10Y U.S. Treasury yield rose significantly, indicating a shift in bond market dynamics[9] Investor Sentiment - Trading volume in the Chinese stock market surged, with the Shanghai Composite Index trading 4.054 billion shares worth $9.94 billion, a week-on-week increase[24] - The short-selling ratio in Hong Kong fell to 12.9%, below the 10-year average, indicating heightened investor confidence[24] Earnings Expectations - U.S. earnings expectations for 2025 were revised upward, with the S&P 500's EPS forecast increasing from +10.3% to +10.4%[68] - The Hang Seng Index's EPS forecast for 2025 was downgraded from -1.8% to -1.9%[68] - European earnings expectations remained stable, with the STOXX50 index's EPS forecast unchanged at -4.6%[69] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economic surprise index rose, influenced by lower-than-expected CPI data and uncertainties regarding the new Federal Reserve chair[9] - The Chinese economic surprise index also increased, supported by the central bank's monetary policy adjustments[9] Capital Flows - Global liquidity showed signs of tightening, with expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates decreasing slightly to 1.8 times in 2026[56] - Recent capital inflows into Hong Kong amounted to HKD 240 billion, with significant contributions from the Stock Connect program[65]

Economic Overview - The global economic landscape is undergoing significant restructuring, with the US and China leading the recovery, followed by adjustments in the Eurozone and Japan, indicating a transformative change in growth patterns for the coming years [1][7] US Economic Dynamics - The reversal of the US economy is attributed to precise policy measures and industry trends, with GDP growth forecasted to rise to 2.6% in 2026, driven by explosive growth in the AI sector and effective fiscal policies [3][8] - AI industry spending is expected to increase by 57% year-on-year in 2026, significantly boosting capital expenditures and contributing to economic growth [3] - The "Big and Beautiful" act is projected to generate a tax rebate of $50-100 billion, enhancing consumer market vitality and stabilizing economic growth [3] China’s Economic Resilience - China's economic strength is derived from structural upgrades and market expansion, with exports reaching a historical high of 6.6% year-on-year growth in December 2025, and total trade value exceeding 45 trillion yuan [5] - The export structure has shifted, with semiconductor exports surging by 47.7%, surpassing mobile phones as the top export item, and automotive exports increasing by 71.7% [5] - The transition from large-scale stimulus to precise regulation is evident, with measures like interest subsidies for business loans and initiatives promoting "AI+" driving the economy towards quality growth [5] Global Economic Policy Adjustments - The Eurozone has entered a policy observation phase after eight interest rate cuts, with GDP growth forecasted to rise to 1.2% in 2026, indicating a potential end to the current easing cycle [7] - Japan faces challenges with inflation exceeding 2% for 44 consecutive months, leading to interest rate hikes, yet economic contraction and wage declines persist [7] - The recovery is characterized by structural disparities, with the US relying on AI and tech investments, China on high-end manufacturing and emerging markets, and the Eurozone's recovery concentrated in core countries [7][8] Future Economic Outlook - The core logic of the economic transition emphasizes the importance of seizing opportunities in high-end manufacturing and emerging industries, as well as building resilient growth structures [8] - The next year is expected to see continued differentiation and restructuring in the global economy, with policy flexibility and industrial innovation being crucial for navigating challenges [8]

Core Insights - Latin America's financial markets are experiencing strong performance, driven by rising commodity prices, a weakening dollar, favorable political conditions, and ongoing reforms, positioning the region as one of the best-performing markets globally by 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The stock markets and currency exchange rates in Latin America have outperformed developed markets, reversing years of sluggish performance [1] - Countries reliant on metal exports, such as Chile and Peru, have seen significant increases in their stock markets and currencies, with Chile's stock market leading globally [1] - Argentina's stock market has performed well following President Milei's market-oriented reforms, receiving positive evaluations from the International Monetary Fund [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The strong performance of Latin American markets is attributed to several factors, including commodity prices, reduced geopolitical risks, dollar trends, deepening internal reforms, and breakthroughs in trade relations with Europe [2] - The recent trade agreement between the European Union and the Southern Common Market is expected to boost market confidence, benefiting agricultural exports and promoting long-term growth for manufacturing economies like Brazil and Argentina [1] - The agreement aims to lower industrial tariffs and enhance supply chain integration, which is anticipated to significantly increase bilateral trade and investment levels [1]

Group 1 - Canada will import 49,000 electric vehicles from China, with the tariff reduced from 100% to 6.1% [1] - Micron Technology's board members purchased $7.8 million worth of stock, indicating insider confidence [2] - TSMC's CEO announced plans to create a "super-sized wafer fabrication cluster" in the U.S., with intentions to acquire an additional 900 acres due to insufficient land [2] Group 2 - European natural gas prices saw a weekly increase of 25%, breaking a prolonged period of narrow fluctuations [2] - Emerging markets expert Mobius advises against buying gold unless prices drop by 20%, expressing optimism about the Chinese market [3] - The Nikkei 225 index fell by 0.3%, the Shanghai Composite index decreased by 0.26%, and the Hang Seng index dropped by 0.28% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The cross-border e-commerce industry is facing significant regulatory changes that threaten the profitability of small and medium-sized sellers, as compliance requirements increase globally, particularly with the U.S. leading the charge in 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The U.S. has suspended its tax exemption policy for small packages, eliminating the $800 tax-free threshold, which means sellers must now pay up to 120% in tariffs or a fixed fee of $100 per item [3][4]. - The European Union will implement a new VAT policy starting December 2025, which will impose VAT on all goods entering from abroad, further increasing costs for sellers [4][6]. - Other regions, including the UK and Japan, are also adjusting their tax exemption rules, raising compliance barriers for global trade [6]. Group 2: Impact on Sellers - Many sellers report that their profit margins have been severely impacted, with some stating they now incur losses due to increased tax burdens [4][6]. - The introduction of comprehensive tax reporting requirements has closed loopholes that previously allowed sellers to operate with minimal oversight, leading to a significant drop in net profits for 31% of sellers, with some facing VAT burdens as high as 8%-10% [6]. Group 3: Adaptation Strategies - In response to these challenges, the overseas warehouse model is gaining popularity, allowing sellers to stock goods in local warehouses to reduce shipping times and avoid tariffs [8][10]. - A semi-managed model is emerging, where sellers handle inventory and quality control while platforms manage operations, logistics, and customer service, thus lowering operational barriers for sellers [10]. - Emerging markets are becoming critical for growth, with platforms in regions like Latin America and Southeast Asia lowering entry barriers to attract Chinese sellers [10][12]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - Despite the challenges, the cross-border e-commerce sector is not in decline; China's cross-border e-commerce imports and exports reached 2.75 trillion yuan in 2025, a 69.7% increase from 2020, indicating a shift towards compliance and sustainable growth [12][14]. - The industry is transitioning from a focus on exploiting regulatory loopholes to creating genuine value, marking the beginning of a high-quality development era in cross-border e-commerce [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - Strongda Circuit (301628) has nearly 3,000 active clients, primarily including electronic product manufacturers, PCB traders, and PCB producers, with around 100 listed companies among its main clients [1] Group 1: Client Base and Applications - The company serves a diverse range of industries, including industrial control, communication equipment, automotive electronics, consumer electronics, healthcare, and semiconductor testing [1] - The active client base consists of nearly 3,000 clients, indicating a robust market presence [1] Group 2: Future Expansion Plans - The company plans to focus on emerging technology areas such as optical modules and millimeter-wave radar [1] - There is an intention to deepen engagement in high-value sample and small-batch board layouts, targeting core application markets like data centers, servers, and CPU board cards [1] - The strategy aims to seize opportunities in emerging markets [1]

Market Performance - Emerging markets continued to lead, with MSCI Global up by 1.5%, MSCI Developed Markets up by 1.1%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up by 4.2% [8][12] - In the developed markets, the South Korean Composite Index showed the strongest performance with an increase of 11.1%, while the Australian S&P 200 was the weakest, declining by 0.5% [8][12] - In the emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index performed best with a rise of 4.0%, while the Indian Sensex30 was the weakest, falling by 1.7% [8][12] Trading Sentiment - The volatility of major stock indices continued to rise, with trading volumes in various markets increasing significantly [25] - In Hong Kong, the short-selling ratio decreased to 14.7%, indicating a high investor sentiment, while North American sentiment remained at a historical high with the NAAIM manager exposure index rising to 97.7% [25][28] Earnings Expectations - The overall earnings expectations for Hong Kong stocks were revised downwards, with the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast adjusted from 2072 to 2071 [71] - In contrast, Japanese stocks saw an upward revision in earnings expectations, with the Nikkei 225's 2025 EPS forecast increased from 2447 to 2451 [71][72] - The earnings expectations for the S&P 500 remained stable at 273, while the Eurozone STOXX50's forecast was revised down from 332 to 331 [71][72] Economic Expectations - Economic indicators showed a slight decline in the US and China, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US decreasing due to mixed non-farm data and political uncertainties [8][71] - The Eurozone's Economic Surprise Index saw a slight increase, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions and changes in trade policies [8][71] Fund Flows - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January was significantly reduced, with market expectations for 2.1 rate cuts in 2026, a slight decrease from the previous week [58][59] - Global liquidity showed signs of tightening, with significant inflows into Hong Kong stocks, amounting to 167 billion HKD, despite some outflows from stable foreign capital [68][70]

MSCI新兴市场指数上周涨1.6%，至1452.35点。 中国市场资金流入最大，达9.074亿美元，其中iShares Inc．的iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets为 首；前一周韩国居首。 股票ETF流入39.6亿美元； 债券ETF流入770万美元； 总资产从4427亿美元增至4526亿美元； 投资者上周继续涌入新兴市场股票和债券交易所交易基金（ETF）。这是此类ETF连续第12周录得资金 流入。 数据显示，截至1月9日当周，投资于多个新兴市场国家或特定国家的美国上市新兴市场ETF合计录得资 金流入39.7亿美元，高于前一周的10.9亿美元，单周资金流入创逾一年来最大。 责任编辑：丁文武 投资者上周继续涌入新兴市场股票和债券交易所交易基金（ETF）。这是此类ETF连续第12周录得资金 流入。 数据显示，截至1月9日当周，投资于多个新兴市场国家或特定国家的美国上市新兴市场ETF合计录得资 金流入39.7亿美元，高于前一周的10.9亿美元，单周资金流入创逾一年来最大。 股票ETF流入39.6亿美元； 债券ETF流入770万美元； 总资产从4427亿美元增至4526亿美元； MSC ...