光期研究 碳 酸 锂 月 度 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 6 年 2 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 碳酸锂：基本面维稳 波动率新高 p 2 碳酸锂：基本面维稳 波动率新高 | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1、供给：周度产量环比减少648吨至21569吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比减少670吨至13244吨，锂云母产量环比减少50吨至2832吨，盐湖提锂环比增 | | | 加90吨至3205吨，回收料提锂环比减少18吨至2288吨。根据SMM，2月电池级碳酸锂排产环比下降17.6%至58835吨，工业级碳酸锂环比下降 | | | 12.7%至23095吨。 | | | 2、需求：周度三元材料产量环比减少203吨至18053吨，库存环比减少177吨至18691吨；周度磷酸铁锂产量环比增加904吨至88223吨，库存环比 | | | 增加229吨至96819吨。据SMM，2月三元材料排产环比下降14.6%至69250吨，磷酸铁锂环比下降10.7%至354000吨；三元动力电池环比下降14.3% | | ...

2月2日，瑞浦兰钧（00666）发布上市以来首份盈喜公告。公告显示，公司预计截至2025年12月31日止 年度实现净利润6.3亿元至7.3亿元（人民币，下同），较2024年同期净亏损13.53亿元成功扭亏为盈。盈 利突破核心源于两大关键因素协同发力：一方面是动力及储能电池产品出货量持续增加，有效带动收入 稳步增长；另一方面是产能利用率提升与降本增效措施落地，推动毛利显著改善。 两大驱动因素形成的"量利齐升"正向循环，标志着公司业务正式告别培育期，迈入高质量盈利新阶段。 受盈喜利好影响，公司股价于2月2日盘中反应积极，一度上涨至12.99港元，最大涨幅达12.6%，资本市 场对公司基本面改善的认可直接显现。 智通财经APP了解到，在动力电池领域，瑞浦兰钧产品覆盖乘用车、商用车、工程机械等多元场景，凭 借高能量密度、长循环寿命等优势，与国内外头部车企建立长期稳定合作。2025年上半年，公司动力电 池出货量达13.53GWh，同比增长78.5%，在国内磷酸铁锂动力电池装机量中排名第七。 据绿色重卡统计数据显示，2025年公司新能源重卡电池装车量同比大增278.74%，市占率提升至 8.14%，稳居全国第二。公司针对 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the recent issuance of a notification by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration to improve the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, which aims to adapt to the needs of the new power system and market structure [6][9]. - As of the end of 2025, China's cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage is expected to reach 213.3 GW, representing a year-on-year growth of 54%. The market share of lithium-ion batteries in new energy storage is projected to increase significantly from 8.2% at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan to 65.8% by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [12][19]. - The report identifies 13 core companies in the energy storage industry chain listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, including Changhong Energy, Haixi Communication, and others, which are involved in various aspects of energy storage technology and products [28][29]. Group 2 - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the new energy industry on the Beijing Stock Exchange has decreased from 37.1X to 35.9X, with the median market capitalization dropping from 27.2 billion to 24.2 billion [31][32]. - The report notes that the median P/E ratio for electronic equipment companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange has declined from 65.8X to 61.1X, indicating a shift in market valuation trends [31][32]. - The report indicates that the median P/E ratio for mechanical equipment companies has decreased from 44.6X to 42.3X, reflecting changes in investor sentiment and market conditions [31][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric equipment industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the introduction of a national capacity pricing policy for energy storage, which recognizes the capacity value of new energy storage systems [7][21] - It forecasts a significant increase in new energy storage installations, with an expected addition of 62.24 GW/183 GWh by 2025, marking an 84% growth compared to the end of 2024 [24] - The report emphasizes the ongoing high demand for energy storage both domestically and internationally, with leading companies expected to accelerate their performance [7][21] Summary by Sections Energy Storage - The national capacity pricing mechanism for energy storage has been established, allowing independent energy storage systems to receive compensation based on their peak capacity contributions [21][22] - The average storage duration is projected to increase to 2.58 hours, with an expected utilization of 1195 hours in 2025, reflecting a significant improvement in efficiency [25] - Key companies in the energy storage sector include Haibo Shichuang, Sunshine Power, and others, which are expected to benefit from the new policies and market conditions [7] Lithium Battery Sector - Xianhui Technology anticipates a net profit of 350 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 56.93%, driven by improved operational efficiency and overseas project contributions [13] - Jiayuan Technology expects revenues between 9.5 billion and 9.75 billion yuan for 2025, with a return to profitability, highlighting a recovery in market demand [14] - The report recommends companies such as Ningde Times and Yiwei Lithium Energy for investment, indicating a positive outlook for the lithium battery sector [7] Electric Equipment - The report notes that Hunan Province plans to invest 45.2 billion yuan in 2026 to promote 24 major energy projects, indicating strong regional support for electric infrastructure [26] - The report also highlights the surge in electricity prices in the U.S., which reached unprecedented levels, suggesting potential volatility in energy markets [29] - Companies like Xujie Electric and Pinggao Electric are recommended for their roles in high-voltage projects and equipment exports [7][26] Photovoltaic Sector - The report indicates that new photovoltaic installations in China are expected to reach 315 GW in 2025, with a focus on companies like Longi Green Energy and Trina Solar [7] - The prices of photovoltaic components are experiencing fluctuations, with recent increases in battery and module prices due to market dynamics [31][33] - The report suggests that the photovoltaic sector remains a key area for investment, particularly in light of upcoming policy changes affecting export taxes [7][33]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive performance of the green power sector, with the Guozheng Green Power Index rising by 0.90% and significant gains in constituent stocks such as Nanwang Energy (+4.87%) and solar energy companies (+3.54%) [1] - The Aisa Wind Power Project in Ethiopia, constructed by a Chinese company, has commenced operations with a total installed capacity of 120 MW, marking a significant milestone in international renewable energy projects [1] - A new pricing mechanism for independent new-type energy storage capacity has been established by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, enhancing the investment attractiveness and revenue certainty for energy storage projects [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Green Power Index include major players like China Nuclear Power and Three Gorges Energy, collectively accounting for 52.75% of the index [2] - The Green Power ETF (159625) closely tracks the Guozheng Green Power Index, providing a convenient tool for investors to gain exposure to the overall performance of listed companies in the green power sector [2] - Investors can also access investment opportunities through the corresponding Green Power ETF linked fund (017057) [3]

Core Insights - The National Energy Administration of China has outlined the energy landscape for 2025, indicating improved energy supply security, a relaxed supply-demand balance, and the implementation of multiple key policies to support healthy industry development and the establishment of a new energy system [1] Group 1: Energy Supply and Security - Energy supply security is expected to be robust, with coal production stable and industrial coal output increasing by 1.2% year-on-year. Crude oil and natural gas production are projected to reach historical highs, with industrial crude oil output up by 1.5% and natural gas output up by 6.2% [2] - The electricity supply is anticipated to be stable, with several ultra-high voltage direct current transmission projects coming online, enhancing the interconnectivity of the power system [2] Group 2: Green and Low-Carbon Transition - The pace of green and low-carbon transition is accelerating, with policies aimed at integrating and promoting renewable energy. New wind and solar installations are expected to exceed 430 million kilowatts, with cumulative installed capacity surpassing 1.8 billion kilowatts, and renewable energy generation accounting for over 60% of total power generation [2] - Renewable energy generation is projected to reach approximately 4 trillion kilowatt-hours, exceeding the total electricity consumption of the 27 EU countries combined [2] Group 3: Industry Development - The industry is experiencing significant orderly development, with measures to address competition in the photovoltaic sector. By the end of 2025, prices for polysilicon and silicon wafers are expected to rise by 52.0% and 35.6%, respectively, from their lowest points [2] - Coal production and supply are being stabilized, with the spot price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at ports in the Bohai Rim expected to reach 690 yuan per ton, an increase of 75 yuan from the lowest point [2] Group 4: New Energy Storage - New energy storage capacity is projected to grow by 84% compared to the end of 2024, reaching 136 million kilowatts/351 million kilowatt-hours, marking a more than 40-fold increase since the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [3] - The North China region accounts for the largest share of new energy storage installations, with 32.5% of the total, followed by Northwest China at 28.2% [3] Group 5: Electricity Market Transactions - The scale of electricity market transactions is expected to reach a new high, with a cumulative transaction volume of 6.64 trillion kilowatt-hours, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [5] - Market-based transactions are projected to account for 64.0% of total electricity consumption, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by the continuous operation of provincial spot markets and the expansion of registered market participants [7] - Cross-regional electricity transactions are expected to grow to 1.59 trillion kilowatt-hours, a historical high, with a year-on-year increase of 11.6% [7]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Upstream production cuts in the industrial silicon sector have been implemented, providing support for prices. Attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions in the polysilicon market [1]. - In 2025, national energy investment maintained rapid growth, with the completed investment in key projects exceeding 3.5 trillion yuan for the first time, a year-on-year increase of nearly 11%. The growth rate was 12.9 and 10.1 percentage points higher than that of infrastructure and manufacturing respectively. Energy investment had three main characteristics: accelerated release of new investment in the energy green - transformation, significant growth in new on - shore wind power installations and investment, and a doubling of investment in new energy storage and hydrogen energy industries [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking 1.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605: The closing price was 8,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 30 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 135 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume was 557,616 lots, with an increase of 257,384 lots compared to T - 1, an increase of 327,652 lots compared to T - 5, and an increase of 175,201 lots compared to T - 22. The open interest was 236,627 lots, a decrease of 26 lots compared to T - 1, an increase of 5,193 lots compared to T - 5, and an increase of 15,562 lots compared to T - 22 [1]. - PS2605: The closing price was 47,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,195 yuan compared to T - 1 and a decrease of 3,580 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 19,537 lots, an increase of 3,911 lots compared to T - 1 and an increase of 6,094 lots compared to T - 5. The open interest was 42,513 lots, a decrease of 232 lots compared to T - 1 and an increase of 1,222 lots compared to T - 5 [1]. 1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon: The spot premium or discount varied depending on different benchmarks. For example, the spot premium against East China Si5530 was +400 yuan/ton, with changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The spot premium against N - type re - investment material was +3165 yuan/ton, with changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. 1.3 Prices - Industrial silicon: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8700 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 was 10000 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 51300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1200 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 2700 yuan compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 1100 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon (photovoltaic): The prices of relevant products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA had different changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Organic silicon: The price of DMC was 13900 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and an increase of 300 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The price of ADC12 was 24350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 350 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 1950 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. 1.4 Profits - Industrial silicon: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2206.5 yuan/ton, with changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22. The profit of silicon plants in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 5414 yuan/ton, with changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises was 8.1 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 1.1 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 0.4 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Organic silicon: The profit of DMC enterprises was 1830 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, a decrease of 46 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 101 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The profit of recycled aluminum enterprises was - 310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 420 yuan compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 290 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. 1.5 Inventory - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 0.3 tons compared to T - 22. The enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) was 20.9 tons, a decrease of 0.41 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 1.3 tons compared to T - 22. The industry inventory (social inventory + enterprise inventory) was 76.3 tons, a decrease of 0.61 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 1.04 tons compared to T - 22. The futures warehouse receipt inventory was 7.0 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons compared to T - 1, an increase of 0.4 tons compared to T - 5, and an increase of 2.0 tons compared to T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory was 33.3 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 2.7 tons compared to T - 22 [1]. 1.6 Raw Material Costs - Silicon ore: The price in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22. The price in Yunnan was 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 20 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Washed coking coal: The price in Xinjiang was 1475 yuan/ton, and the price in Ningxia was 1200 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Petroleum coke: The price of Maoming coke was 1400 yuan/ton, and the price of Yangtze coke was 2340 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Electrodes: The price of graphite electrodes was 12450 yuan/ton, and the price of carbon electrodes was 7200 yuan/ton, with no changes compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On January 30, 2026, the National Energy Administration held a press conference. In 2025, national energy investment maintained rapid growth, with the completed investment in key projects exceeding 3.5 trillion yuan for the first time, a year - on - year increase of nearly 11%. Five provinces (autonomous regions) including Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shandong, Guangdong, and Jiangsu completed investments of over 200 billion yuan. Energy investment had three main characteristics: accelerated release of new investment in the energy green - transformation, significant growth in new on - shore wind power installations and investment, and a doubling of investment in new energy storage and hydrogen energy industries [3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon was 1, and the trend intensity of polysilicon was 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [3].

Group 1 - The Spring Festival travel rush in 2026 will start on February 2 and end on March 13 [2] - The AWE Asia 2026 will be held in Singapore from February 2 to 4 [3] - Fenglong Co. and Jiamei Packaging will resume trading on February 2 after completing their verification work [4] - Minexplosion Optoelectronics will resume trading on February 2, planning to acquire a PCB drilling needle target [5] - Yisiwei will issue shares on February 2 with a price of 55.95 yuan and a P/E ratio of 90.39 times, focusing on automotive manufacturing machine vision equipment [5] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is improving the strategic investor system for listed companies, expanding the types of strategic investors and clarifying minimum shareholding requirements [7] - Public fund information disclosure rules are undergoing significant revisions, requiring the disclosure of long-term performance over the past 7 and 10 years [8] - The manufacturing PMI for January is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating ongoing optimization in the manufacturing industry structure [8] - The draft of the Cybercrime Prevention Law has been released for public consultation, aiming to clarify real-name system requirements to curb online crime [8] - Gold futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell below $4,800 per ounce, marking a drop of over 10%, the largest single-day decline since the 1980s [8] Group 3 - The capacity price mechanism for electricity has been established, which is expected to accelerate the development of new energy storage [13] - The new policy will promote the development of the storage sector, addressing bottlenecks in the current power system [13] - Domestic new energy storage's flexible adjustment capabilities are increasingly prominent, enhancing the stability and safety of the power system [13] - Yangguang Power's storage shipments are expected to grow by 70% year-on-year by Q3 2025, with overseas shipments increasing from 63% to 83% [13] Group 4 - The global demand for transformers is surging, with orders for some factories extending to 2027 due to the rapid growth of AI computing power [15] - The supply gap for power transformers in North America has reached 30%, with imports expected to account for 80% of the supply [15] - The average export price of transformers from China has risen from $12,000 per unit in 2020 to $20,800 by 2025, indicating a potential increase in both volume and price [15] Group 5 - Yuanbao has launched a 1 billion yuan cash red envelope campaign, intensifying competition in the AI application market [17] - Major AI assistant apps from Tencent and ByteDance are leading the free app rankings, indicating strong market competition [17] - Companies like Runjian Co. and iFLYTEK are advancing their AI models and services, aiming for significant growth in user scale and commercialization [18] Group 6 - Zhongji Xuchuang expects a net profit of 9.8 billion to 11.8 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 89.5% to 128.2% [20] - New Yiseng anticipates a net profit of 9.4 billion to 9.9 billion yuan for 2025, representing a growth of 231.2% to 248.9% [20] - Runze Technology forecasts a net profit of 5 billion to 5.3 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 179.3% to 196.0% [20] - Jerey Co. signed a gas turbine generator sales contract worth $182 million (approximately 1.265 billion yuan) for data center power supply [21]

图为新疆生产建设兵团第六师北塔山牧场风光电场。近年来，当地深挖资源优势，利用荒山坡地大力发 展风光电产业，有力推动新能源产业高质量发展。 李华北摄（人民视觉） 国家能源局近日举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年全国能源形势。国家能源局发展规划司副司长邢翼腾在会 上表示，2025年，我国能源供应保障能力有效提升，供需总体宽松，多项重要政策举措密集出台，行业 健康有序发展，新型能源体系建设基础持续夯实，助力我国经济持续回升向好。 绿色低碳转型步伐加快 谈及2025年能源行业，邢翼腾重点介绍了3方面成效： 能源安全保障有力有效。2025年是"十四五"以来能源保供成效最好的一年。原煤生产保持稳定，规上工 业原煤产量同比增长1.2%。油、气产量双创历史新高，规上工业原油产量同比增长1.5%，规上工业天 然气产量同比增长6.2%。电力供应平稳有序，一批特高压直流输电工程投产送电，电力系统互补互济 水平持续提升。 绿色低碳转型步伐加快。有关部门制定出台新能源集成融合发展、促进新能源消纳和调控等一系列政策 措施，助力新能源发展提质增效。全年风电光伏新增装机超过4.3亿千瓦、累计装机规模突破18亿千 瓦，可再生能源发电装机占比超过六 ...

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of Document No. 114 marks a significant policy breakthrough for the new energy storage industry in China, establishing the capacity value of new energy storage from a national institutional level and promoting the development of a new power system [1][2][3] Group 1: Policy Implications - Document No. 114 introduces a new pricing mechanism for energy storage, addressing structural contradictions in the existing capacity pricing system, such as declining coal power utilization hours and the lack of cost recovery channels for pumped storage projects [2][3] - The document elevates the status of energy storage within the power system, transitioning it from a marginal role to a core position, thus enhancing its market positioning and revenue mechanisms [2][3] - The policy aims to improve the flexibility of the new power system while meeting market demands, as part of a broader effort to reform the electricity market [3][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The new policy is expected to lead to a transformation in the profitability model for energy storage, shifting from a reliance on peak-valley arbitrage to a multi-revenue model that includes capacity revenue, energy revenue, and ancillary service revenue [4][5] - The document signals a recognition of the capacity value of energy storage, paving the way for commercial energy storage to participate in the capacity market and explore new business models such as "shared storage + capacity leasing" [5][6] - Companies like Sungrow and Haibo Shichuang are adapting their strategies to align with the new policy, focusing on integrated solutions that combine energy generation and storage [5][6] Group 3: Industry Growth and Challenges - By the end of 2025, China's new energy storage installed capacity is projected to reach 136 million kilowatts, with a significant increase in utilization hours, highlighting the growing importance of energy storage as a stabilizer and regulator in the power system [1][8] - The policy encourages the development of flexible consumption capabilities among end-users, which is essential for maximizing the utilization of renewable energy sources [8] - The document emphasizes the need for improved energy consumption capacity to address the mismatch between renewable energy supply in the western regions and demand in the eastern regions, which is a critical bottleneck for high-quality, large-scale development of renewable energy [7][8]