行 业 华福证券 国防军工 2025 年 05 月 11 日 研 究 国防军工 军工本周观点：中国军工的价值重估时刻已到 投资要点： 本周核心观点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 5 月 7 日，巴基斯坦表示，印度当天凌晨向巴基斯坦本土及巴控克什米尔 地区的三处地点发射了导弹，印巴冲突升级，直至 5 月 10 日，印巴双方同 意立即停火；而巴基斯坦为我国主要武器装备出口国，根据海国图智研究 院援引的斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所（SIPRI）统计，2023 年中国军贸出 口占全球市场份额的 5.80%，其中约 60%的出口对象为巴基斯坦，且交战 期间相关实况报道进一步验证了中国军事装备近年快速发展的强实力，因 此本周军贸主题及其相关标的跑出明显超额，带动国防军工板块表现优异， 本周（5.6-5.9）申万军工指数（801740）上涨 6.33% ，同期沪深 300 指数 上涨 2.00%，相对超额 4.32pct。 5 月 11 日，人民日报刊文《加快解放和发展新质战斗力》，文中写到："向 新而生，向质图强。当前，新一轮科技革命和产业变革蓬勃发展，大量高 新技术武器用于实战，智能技术、无人装备、大数据应用等成为战斗力新 的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the urgent need for military forces to innovate and develop new combat capabilities in response to modern warfare demands [1][2] - The integration of advanced technologies such as intelligent systems, unmanned equipment, and big data applications is identified as a new growth point for combat effectiveness [1][2] - The military is focusing on self-reliance and independent innovation to overcome challenges in developing core technologies and enhancing new combat capabilities [2] Group 2 - The development of new combat capabilities requires high-quality, specialized military personnel to support innovation efforts [3] - Initiatives like the "Kunpeng Wings" software development group demonstrate how military personnel are actively contributing to enhancing operational effectiveness through innovative solutions [3] - The military is accelerating the construction of a high-quality new type of military talent pool to ensure strong support for future warfare [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market has started May with strong momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 2% for the week and closing above 3300 points [1] ETF Performance - The military industry sector has shown significant growth, with related ETFs such as general aviation, military, high-end equipment, and national defense all ranking high in terms of weekly gains [2][3] - Over 1100 ETFs recorded positive returns this week, with a median market increase of 1.81%, indicating a notable uptick compared to the pre-May Day period [3] Top Performing ETFs - The top-performing ETF this week was the General Aviation ETF (159378), which saw a weekly increase of 6.48%. Notable stocks within this ETF, such as Aerospace Rainbow, experienced gains exceeding 14% [4][5] - Other ETFs related to the military sector, including the Military Leader ETF and High-End Equipment ETF, also reported weekly gains exceeding 5% [5] Communication Sector - The Communication ETF (515880) achieved a weekly increase of 6.14%, primarily driven by a rebound in the optical communication sector, with leading stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication seeing substantial rises [5] Declining Sectors - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector has experienced significant volatility, with several ETFs related to this sector appearing on the weekly decline list [6] - The largest decline was seen in the NASDAQ Biotechnology ETF (513290), which fell by 4.93%, followed closely by the S&P Biotechnology ETF (159502) with a drop of 4.86% [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share military industry sector continues to rise, with nearly 20 stocks hitting the daily limit or increasing by over 10%, indicating a potential for further market performance driven by active themes and improving fundamentals [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Market Trends - Since the beginning of the year, themes such as low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, deep-sea technology, large aircraft, and military intelligence have been highly active [1] - The military industry is expected to experience a sustained recovery in fundamentals, leading to a dual boost from active themes and performance improvements [1] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors that have previously experienced significant declines and where pessimistic expectations are fully reflected, such as military electronics and military materials [1] - Pay attention to index-weighted stocks in major indices like CSI 300 and A500 that are related to the military sector [1] - Monitor the "double hit" in the industry as the "14th Five-Year Plan" orders and performance gradually materialize, along with the clarity of the "15th Five-Year Plan," which will enhance both performance and valuation [1] - Consider sectors with special industry premiums, such as mergers and acquisitions, market value management expectations, geopolitical stimuli, and new productivity and combat capabilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. "tariff war" and the record-high defense budget proposal of $1 trillion for the fiscal year 2026, which is a 12% increase from 2025, highlighting potential investment opportunities in the military and defense sectors amid rising geopolitical tensions [1][4]. Group 1: Military Technology Trends - The focus on military automation and intelligence is emphasized, with the U.S. defense budget prioritizing AI military capabilities. The emergence of unmanned and intelligent equipment is transforming combat systems, indicating a shift towards autonomous decision-making in military operations [5]. - The acceleration of next-generation weaponry development is anticipated, particularly in strategic weapons, as global military competition intensifies. The ongoing geopolitical conflicts are expected to increase the urgency for countries to enhance their strategic weapon reserves [6]. - The deep-sea military presence is becoming crucial, with nations expanding their underwater monitoring networks to secure maritime resources and trade routes amid rising international competition [7]. Group 2: Material and Technology Development - The tariff increases are driving advancements in 3D printing and recycled materials in the military sector, as companies seek to reduce costs through innovative material manufacturing processes [7]. - The push for self-sufficiency in high-end military electronics and integrated circuits is accelerating, with the domestic semiconductor industry expected to benefit from the ongoing tariff situation, leading to increased market opportunities [8]. - The commercial space sector is rapidly developing integrated aerospace and satellite internet applications, with significant competition from global players like SpaceX, indicating a growing market for satellite technology [8]. Group 3: Economic and Industrial Impacts - The tariff situation is prompting a shift towards domestic production of large aircraft, with the C919 gaining attention due to increased costs associated with U.S. aircraft imports. This shift is expected to enhance the competitiveness of domestically produced aircraft in international markets [9]. - The low-altitude economy is emerging as a new growth engine for local economies, with various regions in China developing low-altitude economic platforms to stimulate industrial transformation [10]. - The robotics industry is becoming a key driver of domestic demand growth, supported by government policies and market needs, with AI-driven automation projected to contribute significantly to GDP growth [11]. - The military trade sector is expected to grow as China's production capabilities improve, with a shift from focusing solely on domestic needs to exploring international markets due to changing global demand dynamics [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the defense industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The intensification of the India-Pakistan conflict has drawn significant attention to the military industry, with defense stocks rising by 3.70% on May 7, 2025, marking the highest increase among 31 sectors [1][6]. - The report highlights that geopolitical events can have a short-term impact on military stock performance, influenced by the relevance of the event to China, market risk appetite, and the duration of the event [2][6]. - In the medium to long term, the India-Pakistan conflict is expected to strengthen global military trade logic, with China being a key supplier to Pakistan, which has a high dependency on Chinese military imports [7][8]. Summary by Sections Short-term Impact of the India-Pakistan Conflict - The conflict is likely to provide ongoing support for military stock performance due to its proximity to China and the heightened geopolitical tensions [6][7]. - The market's risk appetite has been somewhat restored following recent financial policy adjustments, which may further bolster military stocks [6]. Medium to Long-term Impact on Military Trade - Pakistan is a significant importer of Chinese military products, with 63.02% of China's military exports going to Pakistan from 2020 to 2024, and 81.15% of Pakistan's military imports coming from China [7][8]. - The report anticipates that the military trade market will continue to grow, driven by China's competitive advantages and the evolving global security landscape [17][25]. Investment Trends and Directions - The military industry is expected to remain in a favorable cycle, with a focus on unmanned equipment, military intelligence, satellite internet, and electronic countermeasures as key investment opportunities [13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of military trade in the context of the "Belt and Road" initiative, suggesting that it will serve as a new growth driver for China's military industry [25][30]. Global Military Trade Development - The global military trade market is projected to maintain a high level of activity, with increased military spending across various nations due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts [20][21]. - China's military exports are expected to shift from a recovery phase to a supply-demand resonance-driven growth phase by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [30][32]. Military Product Focus - The report indicates that military products will continue to concentrate on aviation, aerospace, and new domain weaponry, reflecting China's growing capabilities in these areas [49][50].

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 达邵炜 (8621)23297818× dasw@swsresearch.com 国防军工 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 2025 年 04 月 27 日 季报利空逐渐出尽，订单有望持续 兑现 看好 —— 国防军工行业周报（2025 年第 18 周） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 上周申万国防军工指数上涨 0.15%，中证军工龙头指数下跌 0.38%，同期上证综指上 涨 0.56%，沪深 300 上涨 0.38%，创业板指上涨 1.74%，申万国防军工指数跑输创 业板指、跑输沪深 300、跑输上证综指、跑赢军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上 周国防军工板块 0.15%的涨幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 22 位。2、从我们构 建的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the development of advanced stealth materials using photonic crystals, highlighting the innovative research and engineering efforts of a team led by Professor Shi Jiaming at the National University of Defense Technology, aimed at enhancing military equipment's stealth capabilities against various detection methods [1][2][3]. Group 1: Research and Development - The need for improved stealth protection for military equipment has become urgent due to advancements in electronic reconnaissance and precision-guided technologies [2]. - The research began with the exploration of photonic crystals, which can manipulate electromagnetic waves by adjusting their optical properties, although they were initially only in the experimental stage [2][3]. - The team successfully developed a theoretical model to block specific frequency electromagnetic waves by designing the periodic structure of photonic crystals [2][3]. Group 2: Engineering and Testing - The team progressed to the engineering phase, creating small samples of photonic crystals and testing their effectiveness on silicon substrates, which showed promising results [4]. - However, challenges arose when transitioning to flexible fabric substrates, leading to extensive trials and adjustments to the manufacturing process [5][6]. - After three years of dedicated efforts, the team overcame significant technical hurdles to enable the large-scale production of flexible photonic crystal films [6][7]. Group 3: Multi-band Detection Solutions - The team faced new challenges in achieving infrared stealth for high-temperature targets while also addressing laser and radar detection, which required different approaches [7]. - A novel concept called "spectral hole drilling" was developed to create specific transmission channels within the photonic crystal structure, allowing for effective stealth across multiple detection bands [7][8]. - Successful tests demonstrated that the stealth materials did not compromise the performance of the radar systems while effectively evading detection [8]. Group 4: Future Directions - The team continues to optimize their processes and technologies, with a focus on rapid innovation and adaptation to enhance combat capabilities [8]. - The emphasis on developing new quality combat power aligns with national directives to leverage advanced technologies for military applications [8].

据新华网报道，2 0 2 5年我国国防预算约1 7 8 4 7亿元，同比+7 . 2%，自2 0 2 3年以来增幅连续三年持 平。2 0 2 5年《政府工作报告》强调抓好"十四五"规划收官，随着行业修复，军工板块整体将得到 估值修复；提出因地制宜发展新质生产力，我们认为相关产业将在政策的持续支持下快速发展。随 着行业修复，军工板块整体将望获得估值修复，其中部分领域或个股有望率先开启底部复苏，进 而"从一个企业，扩散到一个型号再扩散到一个领域"。推荐导弹、特种机器人、新材料新工艺、两 机，以及低空经济、商业航天。 ▍ 国防预算连续三年同比+7 . 2%，占GDP比例较低仍有提升空间。 据新华网报道，2 0 2 5年我国国防预算约1 7 8 4 7亿元，同比+7 . 2%，自2 0 2 3年以来增幅连续三年持 平。我国2 0 2 2 - 2 0 2 4年国防预算分别同比+7 . 1%/ 7 . 2%/ 7 . 2%，军费同比增速连续3年保持7%以 上。据政府工作报告，2 0 2 5年GDP增速目标为5%左右，国防开支总体上与国家经济发展水平相 协调，7 . 2%的国防预算增速保持适度增长。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩3 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The defense budget is steadily increasing, providing a fundamental guarantee for the prosperity of the military industry. The defense budget has maintained a single-digit growth for nine consecutive years since 2016, indicating a stable growth trend [2] - The global situation is tense, and major power competition is intensifying, which necessitates an appropriate increase in military spending to accelerate equipment upgrades and ensure national economic security [2] - China's military spending is about one-fourth of the United States, with a defense budget of 1.67 trillion yuan (approximately 229.41 billion USD) for 2024, which is about 25.89% of the US military budget [3] - The proportion of military spending to GDP in China is below the world average, with China's defense spending remaining under 1.5% of GDP, while the UK is expected to increase its military spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 [3] - The government work report emphasizes the need to enhance training and preparation, accelerate the development of new combat capabilities, and focus on major defense projects and network information system construction [4] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The military budget provides a basic guarantee for the military industry's prosperity, with steady growth in defense spending since 2016 [2] - The current global tensions and major power competition necessitate an increase in military spending to support equipment upgrades and national economic security [2] Global Military Spending Trends - Other countries may enter a high-growth military spending cycle, with significant increases expected in Europe as they respond to security needs [3] - The EU plans to mobilize nearly 800 billion euros for defense spending, indicating a readiness to significantly increase military expenditures [3] Defense Budget Allocation - The defense budget is increasingly tilted towards equipment spending, with the proportion of equipment costs rising from 33.2% to 41.1% between 2010 and 2017 [4] - New combat capabilities and technological innovation are highlighted as key areas for future military spending [4] Investment Recommendations and Valuation - Focus on two structural opportunities: consumable ammunition (missiles, long-range rocket artillery, and aerial bombs) and platform-type equipment, particularly new aircraft and their associated aerospace power industry [5] - Emphasize the importance of new technologies and the potential for military technology to transition into civilian applications, particularly in satellite internet and low-altitude economies [5] - Military trade is expected to open up new demand opportunities, with equipment exports providing significant profit potential for related companies [5]