Core Insights - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding fresh food rose by 2.9% year-on-year in September, reaching 111.4, marking the 49th consecutive month of increase and a resurgence in price growth since May [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The increase in consumer prices is primarily driven by a surge in energy prices, with electricity and gas prices turning from a year-on-year decline of 7% and 5% in the previous month to increases of 3.2% and 2.2% respectively [1] - While the price increases for food and durable consumer goods have moderated compared to last year, the price of ordinary japonica rice surged by 48.6%, and chocolate and coffee bean prices rose by 50.9% and 64.1% respectively [1] - Hotel accommodation fees increased by 5.8% year-on-year, influenced by the growing demand for inbound tourism [1] Group 2: Economic Policy Implications - Media and experts suggest that the new Japanese government's intention to adopt more aggressive fiscal and monetary policies may lead to further depreciation of the yen, potentially exacerbating inflation in Japan [1]

日本政策研究大学院大学教授竹中治坚认为，高市试图以削减汽油税等政策应对物价上涨，殊不知减税 属于财政扩张之举，有可能进一步推升通胀。此外，如果以应对物价上涨之名发放补助，同样会刺激通 胀。 日本东洋大学教授野崎浩成说，虽然"高市交易"推动股价上涨，以日元计价的资产价值增加，但日元却 大幅贬值，实际结果是民众购买力下降。特别是对不持有金融资产的人们来说，生活将遭受更大冲击。 根据厚生劳动省公布的数据，截至2024年年底，由于工资涨幅追不上物价涨幅，日本实际工资连续3年 同比下降。今年以来，实际收入萎缩势头未减，实际工资已连续8个月同比下降。 日本法政大学经济学部教授小黑一正指出，未来物价上涨恐将长期化，日元贬值和进口物价上涨将进一 步挤压民众钱包，给日本政府和央行的政策平衡带来更大挑战。 日本媒体和专家纷纷表示，鉴于政局不稳、政权更迭等因素，日本央行在10月底货币政策会议上决定加 息的可能性大幅下降。这些分析和预期进一步助长了日元贬值趋势。 近年来，日本物价持续上涨。根据总务省公布的数据，截至今年8月，日本核心消费价格指数（CPI） 连续48个月同比上升。今年1月至7月，核心CPI涨幅连续7个月保持在3%以上。 ...

日本学者担忧，日元大幅贬值会导致日本民众购买力下降。未来物价上涨恐将长期化，日元贬值和进口 物价上涨将进一步挤压民众钱包，给日本政府和央行的政策平衡带来更大挑战。 由于外界对日本推动宽松财政金融政策的预期大幅上升，受此影响，日元对美元和欧元等主要货币汇率 明显下跌。截至21日，东京外汇市场美元对日元汇率升至1比151区间，而在10月3日，这一汇率尚徘徊 在1比147区间。 来源：央视新闻客户端 ...

Core Insights - There is a significant increase in expectations for Japan to implement loose fiscal and monetary policies, leading to a notable depreciation of the yen against major currencies like the US dollar and the euro [2] - As of the 21st, the exchange rate of the US dollar to the yen has risen to the 151 range, compared to the 147 range on October 3 [2] - Japanese scholars express concerns that the sharp depreciation of the yen will reduce the purchasing power of the Japanese public, potentially leading to prolonged inflation [2] Economic Impact - The depreciation of the yen and rising import prices are expected to further strain the financial situation of the Japanese populace, posing greater challenges for the government's and central bank's policy balance [2]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's September exports ended a four-month decline, growing by 4.2% year-on-year, primarily benefiting from yen depreciation and strong shipments to Asian markets, although the growth fell short of market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Export Performance - September exports increased by 4.2% year-on-year, reversing August's 0.1% decline, but this growth was below economists' expectations of 5.7% [1]. - Exports to Asia were a highlight, with a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, driven by semiconductor exports, which grew by 12.6% in value [2][3]. - Exports to the United States contracted for the sixth consecutive month, decreasing by 13.3% year-on-year, significantly impacted by tariffs from the Trump administration [1][3]. Group 2: Currency and Economic Factors - The yen depreciated by 2.3% against the dollar year-on-year, enhancing the price competitiveness of Japanese goods [1]. - Despite the yen's depreciation, the actual impact on exports is questioned, as policy factors like tariffs may have a more significant effect than currency fluctuations [2]. - The new Prime Minister's policies may further weaken the yen, with the market betting on a "Kishida trade" that has driven the Nikkei 225 index to a historical high [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Economists warn that if the US-Japan interest rate differential narrows, it could lead to yen appreciation, potentially suppressing export values [1][4]. - The trade outlook remains uncertain, with domestic demand unlikely to rescue the economy, as highlighted by Moody's analysis [4]. - Japan's GDP for the second quarter was revised up to 0.5%, indicating stronger-than-expected economic resilience [4].

来源丨新华社 编辑丨刘雪莹 日本或迎首位女首相，分析称日元可能贬值 日本前首相村山富市去世，享年101岁 SFC 21君荐读 日本石破茂内阁21日全体辞职。新内阁将于当天下午经临时国会首相指名选举后，由新当选的 首相重新组建。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a surge in gold purchases in Japan, driven by rising gold prices and a loss of confidence in the yen due to inflation and currency depreciation [2][3][4] - Gold prices in Japan have doubled in two years and quadrupled in five years, reaching 22,400 yen per gram (approximately 1,057 RMB), leading to a collective anxiety among investors [2][3] - The demand for smaller gold bars (5g, 10g, 20g) has surged as the price of larger bars (100g) becomes unaffordable for average workers, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards gold as a safe haven [2][3] Group 2 - The gold buying frenzy has disrupted supply chains, with retailers like Tanaka Precious Metals halting sales of gold bars under 50 grams due to overwhelming demand [3] - Political uncertainties, including the election of a pro-expansion fiscal leader, have exacerbated fears of yen depreciation, prompting consumers to seek gold as a more reliable form of currency [3][4] - The article suggests that the current situation in Japan may reflect a broader global trend of distrust in fiat currencies, with gold being viewed as a more stable asset amidst economic turmoil [4]

智通财经APP获悉，前日本央行官员竹内惇(曾参与东京金融市场运作)表示，日本当局或许能够容忍日 元适度贬值，但如果日元兑美元汇率大幅跌破160 ，他们可能会进行干预。竹内惇在 2010 年至 2012 年 期间参与了几次抛售日元的干预行动。 本周日元汇率预计将下跌近 4%，这是自去年 10 月初以来的最大跌幅。市场预期高田早苗将扩大财政 支出，并给日本央行施压，使其推迟提高仍处于低位的利率。周五，日元兑美元汇率约为 153 日元。 在周四的一档电视节目中，高田早苗表示她不想引发日元的过度贬值。但她没有对近期的日元贬值发出 任何警告，只是说日元走弱有"利弊之分"。 许多市场参与者将1美元兑160日元视为当局的底线，这加大了货币干预的可能性。在新的口头警告中， 日本财务大臣加藤胜信周五表示，当局正在监测过度、无序的汇率变动。 竹内惇指出，虽然美国总统特朗普可能倾向于弱美元以促进美国出口，但他的政府似乎并未关注日元近 期的贬值情况。他说："但如果日元进一步加速贬值，华盛顿可能会表示不满。他们甚至可能欢迎东京 采取任何干预措施来遏制日元的下跌。" 由于执政党候选人高市早苗意外获胜，市场对日本央行短期内加息的预期降低， ...

周五（10月10日）亚洲交易时段，美元/日元在触及2月13日以来新高153.2700后略有下降，不过下行空 间受限，最新美元兑日元汇率报152.7900，跌幅0.18%，日本10年期公债收益率周五触及逾17年高点， 因日元疲软提高了人们对日本央行将加息的押注。 10年期日本公债收益率上升1个基点至1.7%，为2008年7月以来最高。三井住友信托资产管理公司高级 策略师稻留克俊说，"日元疲软加剧了人们对日本央行可能提前加息的揣测。" 在自民党总裁选举中，财政鸽派人士高市早苗胜出，市场此前对日本央行可能推迟加息的押注出现逆 转。之所以出现这种逆转，是因为市场担心日元疲软可能会提振进口价格，从而加速通胀。 日本五年期公债收益率上升0.5个基点至1.24%，为2008年7月以来的最高水平。两年期日本公债收益率 持平于0.925%。20年期日本公债收益率下跌1个基点，至2.705%。30年期日本公债收益率持平于 3.175%。 前日本央行官员、曾参与过去外汇干预的Atsushi Takeuchi表示，如果日元急剧跌向160，日本可能会进 行干预，并警告过度贬值可能会迫使东京出手。 Takeuchi表示，到目前为止日元的 ...

据报道，日本自民党总裁高市早苗表示，无意引发日元过度贬值；目前不便就加息发表评论。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...