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一、动力煤:宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年11月13日)-20251113
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 01:22
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 13, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis and Inter - period Spreads**: The basis of power coal on November 12, 2025, was 32.6 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend compared to previous days. The spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month were all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: For fuel oil, the basis on November 12, 2025, was 4.45 yuan/ton. The ratio of crude oil to asphalt and other data such as INE crude oil basis were also presented [7]. - **Chemical Commodities** - **Basis**: On November 12, 2025, the basis of rubber was - 470 yuan/ton, methanol was - 13 yuan/ton, PTA was - 85 yuan/ton, LLDPE was 312 yuan/ton, PVC was - 106 yuan/ton, and PP was 35 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rubber was 85 yuan/ton, and that of methanol was 105 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On November 12, 2025, the spread of LLDPE - PVC was 2199 yuan/ton, LLDPE - PP was 329 yuan/ton, PP - PVC was 1870 yuan/ton, and PP - 3*methanol was 149 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: On November 12, 2025, the basis of螺纹钢 was 162.0 yuan/ton,铁矿石 was 6.0 yuan/ton,焦炭 was - 84.5 yuan/ton, and焦煤 was 216.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of螺纹钢 was 60.0 yuan/ton,铁矿石 was - 270 yuan/ton,焦炭 was 1435 yuan/ton, and焦煤 was 58.5 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On November 12, 2025, the ratio of螺/矿 was 3.94,螺/焦炭 was 17972,焦炭/焦煤 was 1.3889, and螺 - 热卷 was - 219.0 yuan/ton [19]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market Basis**: On November 12, 2025, the basis of copper was - 190 yuan/ton, aluminum was - 160 yuan/ton, zinc was - 70 yuan/ton, lead was - 250 yuan/ton, nickel was 2060 yuan/ton, and tin was - 1440 yuan/ton [28]. - **London Market**: On November 12, 2025, the LME升贴水 of copper was (14.10), aluminum was (27.55), zinc was 128.30, lead was (23.90), nickel was (203.90), and tin was 51.00. The沪伦比 and CIF and domestic spot prices were also provided [33]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: On November 12, 2025, the basis of豆一 was - 107 yuan/ton,豆二 was 294.81 yuan/ton,豆粕 was - 9 yuan/ton,豆油 was 242 yuan/ton, and玉米 was - 17 yuan/ton [41]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of豆一 was 43 yuan/ton,豆二 was - 216 yuan/ton [41]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On November 12, 2025, the ratio of豆一/玉米 was 1.89,豆二/玉米 was 1.73,豆油/豆粕 was 2.71,豆粕 - 菜粕 was 564 yuan/ton,豆油 - 棕榈油 was - 478 yuan/ton,菜油 - 豆油 was 1538 yuan/ton, and玉米 - 玉米淀粉 was - 312 yuan/ton [40]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: On November 12, 2025, the basis of沪深300 was 17.91,上证50 was 1.50,中证500 was 88.05, and中证1000 was 116.58 [52]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The次月 - 当月 spread of沪深300 was - 158,上证50 was - 38,中证500 was - 706, and中证1000 was - 916 [52].
《黑色》日报-20251113
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 01:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Steel: Currently, the apparent demand for steel is seasonally weak, and destocking has slowed down. Considering the high steel inventory and winter storage pressure, the iron - making capacity of steel mills in the January contract is likely to decline. The iron ore supply in the January contract is turning loose, and there is a basis for negative feedback in the iron - element chain. It is not recommended to go long. The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage can continue to be held. For single - side trading, it is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the support levels of 3000 for rebar and 3200 for hot - rolled coil [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price is strengthening, and the basis is continuing to narrow. If the steel mill losses continue to intensify and the finished product destocking is not as expected, the iron ore price may hit a new low. However, the probability of negative feedback in iron - making capacity is low under the current profit rate and inventory level of steel mills. For the long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage, partial profit - taking can be considered, and then pay attention to this arbitrage again after the coking coal price stabilizes [4]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal futures showed a weak and volatile trend yesterday, with a certain deviation between the futures and spot markets. The coke futures were in a low - level volatile trend. The coke is still expected to raise prices due to cost support. For both coking coal and coke, single - side trading should be viewed as volatile, and 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is recommended, while guarding against the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in steel prices [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East, North, and South China remained unchanged at 3190, 3210, and 3270 yuan/ton respectively. Futures contract prices had small fluctuations, with the 05, 10, and 01 contracts at 3096, 3138, and 3038 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Spot prices in East and North China increased by 10 yuan/ton, and remained unchanged in South China. Futures contract prices also rose, with the 05, 10, and 01 contracts at 3267, 3288, and 3255 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Costs: Steel billet price remained at 2930 yuan/ton, and plate billet price at 3730 yuan/ton. Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar cost decreased by 1 yuan to 3273 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu converter rebar cost decreased by 11 yuan to 3173 yuan/ton [1]. - Profits: Profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions all decreased, with the largest decline in North China hot - rolled coil profit by 14 yuan to - 124 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - Production: Daily average pig iron output decreased by 2.1 to 234.2, a decline of 0.9%. Five - major steel products output decreased by 18.5 to 856.7, a decline of 2.1%. Rebar and hot - rolled coil production also decreased [1]. - Inventory: Five - major steel products inventory decreased by 10.2 to 1503.6, a decline of 0.7%. Rebar inventory decreased by 10.0 to 592.5, a decline of 1.7%, while hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.9 to 410.5, an increase of 0.9% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume increased slightly by 0.1 to 9.2, an increase of 0.6%. The apparent demand for five - major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil all decreased significantly, with the largest decline in rebar apparent demand by 13.7 to 218.5, a decline of 5.9% [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - Warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types increased slightly, with an increase of about 0.4%. The basis of the 01 contract for various iron ore types continued to narrow, with the largest decline in the 01 contract basis of Carajás fines by 23.6% [4]. - The 5 - 9 spread increased by 3.0 to 23.0, an increase of 15.0%, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3.5 to - 49.5, a decline of 7.6%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased slightly by 0.5 to 26.5, an increase of 1.9% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 477.2 to 2741.2, a decline of 14.8%, and the global shipment volume decreased by 144.8 to 3069.0, a decline of 4.5%. However, the national monthly import volume increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6, an increase of 10.6% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.1 to 234.2, a decline of 0.9%. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume increased slightly by 0.8 to 320.9, an increase of 0.2%. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased by 5.4% and 5.0% respectively [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 229.4 to 15128.19, an increase of 1.5%, the 247 steel mills' imported iron ore inventory increased by 160.1 to 9009.9, an increase of 1.8%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged at 21 days [4]. Coking Coal and Coke Prices and Spreads - Coke: The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1662 yuan/ton, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) increased by 11 to 1700 yuan/ton. Futures contract prices also increased slightly [7]. - Coking Coal: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1420 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) decreased by 30 to 1301 yuan/ton. Futures contract prices increased slightly [7]. Supply - Coke production: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.0 to 63.6, a decline of 1.5%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 46.1, a decline of 0.3% [7]. - Coking coal production: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 3.4 to 848.4, a decline of 0.4%, and the clean coal output decreased by 2.0 to 433.0, a decline of 0.5% [7]. Demand - Coke demand: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.1 to 234.2, a decline of 0.9% [7]. - Coking coal demand: The coke production of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased [7]. Inventory - Coke inventory: The total coke inventory decreased by 13.0 to 887.1, a decline of 1.4%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports all decreased [7]. - Coking coal inventory: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 0.8 to 80.4, a decline of 0.9%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants and ports increased, while the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased [7].
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年11月12日):宝城期货品种套利数据日报-20251112
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 09:23
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 12, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads for different commodity categories such as thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Thermal Coal - Basis data from November 5 to November 11, 2025, shows that the basis increased from - 2.4 yuan/ton on November 5 to 29.6 yuan/ton on November 11 [1][2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from November 5 to November 11, 2025, is provided, with values such as - 74.14, - 31.93, etc. [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from November 5 to November 11, 2025, shows different trends. For example, the basis of rubber changed from - 500 yuan/ton on November 5 to - 395 yuan/ton on November 11 [9]. - Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., are presented, such as the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for rubber being 75 yuan/ton [10]. - Inter - variety spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., are given, with values like 2203 yuan/ton for LLDPE - PVC on November 11 [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 5 to November 11, 2025, shows fluctuations. For example, the basis of rebar increased from 146 yuan/ton on November 5 to 175 yuan/ton on November 11 [20]. - Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided, such as the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for rebar being 61 yuan/ton [19]. - Inter - variety spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., are given, with values like 3.97 for rebar/iron ore on November 11 [19]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 5 to November 11, 2025, shows different trends. For example, the basis of copper changed from - 350 yuan/ton on November 5 to 20 yuan/ton on November 11 [29]. - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, etc., on November 11, 2025, are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper is (21.28) [32]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 5 to November 11, 2025, shows fluctuations. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 changed from - 103 yuan/ton on November 5 to - 92 yuan/ton on November 11 [39]. - Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, etc., are provided, such as the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for soybeans No.1 being 44 yuan/ton [39]. - Inter - variety spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, etc., are given, with values like 1.90 for soybeans No.1/corn on November 11 [38][39]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 5 to November 11, 2025, shows different trends. For example, the basis of CSI 300 changed from 30.66 on November 5 to 25.37 on November 11 [50]. - Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided, such as the next - month minus current - month spread for CSI 300 being - 144 [50].
甲醇日报:西北成交好转-20251112
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 05:16
甲醇日报 | 2025-11-12 西北成交好转 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面:Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨(+0),内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润603元/吨(+5);内地甲醇价格方面,内 蒙北线2008元/吨(+5),内蒙北线基差526元/吨(+24),内蒙南线1960元/吨(+10);山东临沂2175元/吨(+10), 鲁南基差293元/吨(+29);河南2065元/吨(+25),河南基差183元/吨(+44);河北2090元/吨(+20),河北基差268 元/吨(+39)。隆众内地工厂库存386410吨(+10350),西北工厂库存232500吨(+1200);隆众内地工厂待发订单 221093吨(+5535),西北工厂待发订单124500吨(+10900)。 港口方面:太仓甲醇2060元/吨(+0),太仓基差-22元/吨(+19),CFR中国240美元/吨(-3),华东进口价差-42元/ 吨(-11),常州甲醇2275元/吨;广东甲醇2065元/吨(+5),广东基差-17元/吨(+24)。隆众港口总库存1517100吨 (+10630),江苏港口库存821500吨(-2800),浙江港口库存 ...
宝城期货品种套利数据日报:宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年11月11日)-20251111
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 02:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 11, 2025, including basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for multiple sectors such as thermal coal, energy and chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][4][19][25][36][47]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The basis data of thermal coal from November 4 to November 10, 2025, are - 13.4, - 2.4, 6.6, 15.6, and 24.6 yuan/ton respectively, while the spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month are all 0.0 [2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from November 4 to November 10, 2025, are presented, with the basis of INE crude oil being - 32.27, - 30.27, etc., and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt showing different values [6]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from November 4 to November 10, 2025, are provided, such as the basis of rubber being - 275, - 500, etc. [8]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given, like the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber being 75 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from November 4 to November 10, 2025, are shown, for example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on November 10 is 2182 yuan/ton [9]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 4 to November 10, 2025, are presented, such as the basis of rebar being 146, 146, etc. [19]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given, for instance, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar is 59.0 yuan/ton [18]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from November 4 to November 10, 2025, are shown, like the rebar/iron ore ratio on November 10 is 3.99 [18]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: - **Basis**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 4 to November 10, 2025, are provided, such as the basis of copper being 650, - 350, etc. [26]. - **London Market**: The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on November 10, 2025, are presented, for example, the LME spread of copper is (14.85) [31]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from November 4 to November 10, 2025, are shown, such as the basis of soybeans No.1 being - 35, - 103, etc. [37]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are given, like the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 is 42 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, etc. from November 4 to November 10, 2025, are presented, for example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on November 10 is 1.91 [37]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 4 to November 10, 2025, are provided, such as the basis of CSI 300 being 29.70, 30.66, etc. [48]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of next month - current month and next quarter - current quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given, for instance, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 is - 15.0 [48].
《有色》日报-20251110
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 08:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the steel industry, the steel market shows that mills continue to cut production, hot metal declines, apparent demand drops, and inventory reduction slows. The cost support of iron elements is weak, while that of carbon elements is strong. The steel price is unlikely to fall significantly, and the long - coking coal and short - hot rolled coil arbitrage can be held. The unilateral prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil may test previous lows [2]. - For the iron ore industry, the iron ore futures are in a weak downward trend. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. Due to the weak steel price, the profitability of mills is declining, which will force the iron ore market to be weak. It is recommended to short iron ore futures on rallies and conduct long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage [4][6]. - For the coke industry, the coke futures fluctuated downward last week. The supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 on dips and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [7]. - For the coking coal industry, the coking coal futures also showed a downward trend last week. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3190 yuan/ton, 3200 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, +10, and - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. Rebar contract prices for 05, 10, and 01 are 3095 yuan/ton, 3132 yuan/ton, and 3034 yuan/ton respectively, all showing declines [2]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3260 yuan/ton, 3190 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively, all down 10 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil contract prices for 05, 10, and 01 are 3254 yuan/ton, 3276 yuan/ton, and 3245 yuan/ton respectively, all down 11 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - The billet price is 2940 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East, North, and South China are all down [2]. Supply - The daily average hot metal output is 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (-0.9%); the output of five major steel products is 856.7 tons, down 18.5 tons (-2.1%); the rebar output is 208.5 tons, down 4.1 tons (-1.9%); the hot - rolled coil output is 318.2 tons, down 5.4 tons (-1.7%) [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1503.6 tons, down 10.2 tons (-0.7%); the rebar inventory is 592.5 tons, down 10 tons (-1.7%); the hot - rolled coil inventory is 410.5 tons, up 3.9 tons (0.9%) [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume is 8.7 tons, down 2.3 tons (-21%); the apparent demand of five major steel products is 866.9 tons, down 49.5 tons (-5.4%); the apparent demand of rebar is 218.5 tons, down 13.7 tons (-5.9%); the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil is 314.3 tons, down 17.6 tons (-5.3%) [2]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders all show declines, and the basis of the 01 contract has different changes. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads also have corresponding changes [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port and price indexes such as the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and Platts 62% Fe all decline [4]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports is 3218.4 tons, up 1189.3 tons (58.6%); the global weekly shipping volume is 3213.8 tons, down 174.6 tons (-5.2%); the national monthly import volume is 11632.6 tons, up 1111.6 tons (10.6%) [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 mills is 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (-0.9%); the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports is 320.9 tons, down 15.5 tons (-4.6%); the national monthly pig iron output is 6604.6 tons, down 374.7 tons (-5.4%); the national monthly crude steel output is 7349.0 tons, down 387.8 tons (-5.0%) [4]. Inventory Changes - The port inventory at 45 ports is 14898.83 tons, up 184.8 tons (1.3%); the imported iron ore inventory of 247 mills is 6600.6 tons, up 160.1 tons (1.8%); the inventory available days of 64 mills is 21 days, unchanged [4]. Coke Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) are unchanged. The coke 01 and 05 contracts decline, and the coking profit is down [7]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.6 tons, down 1.0 ton (-1.5%); the daily average output of 247 mills is 46.1 tons, down 0.1 ton (-0.34%) [7]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 mills is 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (-0.94%) [7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory is 887.1 tons, down 13 tons (-1.4%); the coke inventories of coking plants, mills, and ports all decline [7]. Supply - demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap is -3.7 tons, down 0.1 ton (-2.2%) [7]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) are unchanged, while the prices of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) and coking coal 01 and 05 contracts decline. The sample coal mine profit is up [7]. Supply - The raw coal output is 848.4 tons, down 3.4 tons (-0.4%); the clean coal output is 433.0 tons, down 2.0 tons (-0.5%) [7]. Demand - The demand for coking coal is mainly reflected in the coking production, with the daily average output of all - sample coking plants and 247 mills showing declines [7]. Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines is 80.4 tons, down 0.8 tons (-0.9%); the coking coal inventories of coking plants and ports increase, while those of mills decrease [7].
双焦周报:焦煤:供给格局维持偏紧,需求压制上行高度,焦炭:第四轮提涨开启,关注实际执行情况-20251110
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 05:17
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term coking coal supply may remain tight due to environmental protection and safety inspections in major production areas. However, the traditional off - season of the downstream steel market and the continuous decline in hot metal production suppress the upward space of raw material prices. The coking coal and coke futures are expected to move within a range next week. The strategy suggests short - term long positions in coking coal and arbitrage opportunities of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore. The reference range for the coking coal main contract is [1230, 1310], and for the coke main contract is [1710, 1800] [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - This week, black - series commodities declined across the board, while coking coal and coke prices were relatively firm. The weekly decline of the coking coal main contract was 1.24%, and that of the coke main contract was 1.15%. Domestic coal mine production decreased, and inventory was at a near - three - year low. Pre - sale orders were sufficient, and the auction market was active. Steel mill profits were poor, hot metal production declined, but raw material replenishment demand was still resilient. The port clearance volume of imported coking coal increased, and the spot resources were relatively tight. The third round of coke price increase was implemented, and some coke enterprises initiated the fourth round [4] Coking Coal - **Supply** - 523 mines' daily average raw coal output was 186.33 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4 tons; daily average clean coal output was 73.83 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.01 tons. Sample coal washing plants' daily average output was 27.53 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.01 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 36.87%, a week - on - week increase of 1.15% [20][23] - From January to September, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 6.45% year - on - year. In September, the total import volume was 10.92 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% [24][25] - **Inventory and Basis** - The 01 contract basis of coking coal strengthened to a high level in the same period. The 1 - 5 spread strengthened [8][13] - The coking coal auction's weekly listing volume decreased by 0.69 tons, the成交 rate decreased by 0.24%, and the non - transaction rate increased by 0.24% [30] Coke - **Market and Profit** - Coke spot prices remained stable. The national average coking profit increased by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, still in a loss state. Profits in different regions improved to varying degrees [36][40] - **Supply and Demand** - Coke daily consumption was 105.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96 tons. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.19% [51] - **Inventory and Basis** - Coke total inventory decreased by 12.97 tons week - on - week. Steel mill inventory, independent coke enterprise inventory, and port inventory all decreased. The 01 contract basis of coke strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread situation was not provided in detail [58]
宝城期货品种套利数据日报:宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年11月10日)-20251110
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 02:40
Report Overview - This is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for November 10, 2025, providing data on various futures products including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] 1. Power Coal - The report presents the basis and spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of power coal from November 3 to November 7, 2025 [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are provided [7] Chemical Commodities - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are presented [9] - Inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given [10] - Inter - commodity spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3 * methanol) from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are provided [10] 3. Black Metals Inter - period Spreads - Inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. The main contracts for rebar are in January, May, and October [19] Inter - commodity Spreads - Inter - commodity spreads (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, rebar - hot rolled coil) from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are provided [19] Basis - The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are given [20] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are presented [28] London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on November 7, 2025, are provided [34] 5. Agricultural Products Basis - The basis data of soybeans (first - grade, second - grade), soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are given [42] Inter - period Spreads - Inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented [42] Inter - commodity Spreads - Inter - commodity spreads (soybeans (first - grade)/corn, soybeans (second - grade)/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, corn - corn starch) from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are provided [41] 6. Stock Index Futures Basis - The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 3 to November 7, 2025, are presented [53] Inter - period Spreads - Inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given [53]
《黑色》日报-20251107
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 05:54
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, the steel market is slightly stronger, with a decline in hot metal production, which is bearish for iron ore. Steel production has decreased, apparent demand has fallen, and inventory reduction has slowed. There is a negative feedback in the iron element chain, with the supply of iron elements expected to be weaker than that of carbon elements. For the 1 - month contract, pay attention to the support levels of 3000 for rebar and 3200 for hot - rolled coils. The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage can continue to be held [2]. - For the iron ore industry, the iron ore futures showed a low - level oscillating trend. Supply increased while demand decreased, with high - level hot metal production falling back and steel mills' replenishment demand weakening. The steel price decline, hot metal reduction, and inventory increase continue to suppress iron ore. Unilateral short positions are recommended when the price is high, with the range referring to 750 - 800, and the long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage is recommended [4][6]. - For the coke industry, the coke futures showed an oscillating rebound. The third round of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises was implemented, and there is still an expectation of further increases. However, the decline in hot metal production and weak steel prices put pressure on price increases. The inventory is slightly decreasing, and the demand and supply are tight. It is recommended to speculatively buy the coke 2601 contract at low prices (range: 1700 - 1850) and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [7]. - For the coking coal industry, the coking coal futures also showed an oscillating rebound. The domestic coking coal market is strong, but the supply is expected to increase slightly. The demand for replenishment has weakened. It is recommended to buy the coking coal 2601 contract at low prices in the short - term (range: 1250 - 1350) and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East, North, and South China all showed small changes. Futures contracts also had price increases, with the 01 contract rising by 13 yuan/ton[2]. - Hot - rolled coils: Spot prices in different regions remained stable, and futures contracts had small price increases, with the 01 contract rising by 3 yuan/ton[2]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price increased by 20 yuan/ton, while the slab price remained unchanged. Profits in different regions and for different production processes declined, with the East China hot - rolled coil profit dropping by 26 yuan/ton[2]. Output - The daily average hot metal output decreased by 2.1 tons (- 0.9%), and the output of the five major steel products decreased by 18.5 tons (- 2.1%)[2]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 10.2 tons (- 0.7%), the rebar inventory decreased by 10.0 tons (- 1.7%), and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.9 tons (0.9%)[2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 1.6 tons (17.4%), but the apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 49.5 tons (- 5.4%), and the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils also declined[2]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The cost of some iron ore warehouse receipts increased slightly, and the basis of some 01 contracts also changed. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0 yuan/ton (5.0%)[4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The prices of some iron ore varieties in Rizhao Port increased slightly, and the prices of iron ore swaps and indexes also had small increases[4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 1189.3 tons (58.6%) week - on - week, while the global shipment volume decreased by 174.6 tons (- 5.2%)[4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.1 tons (- 0.9%), and the 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume decreased by 16.2 tons (- 4.8%)[4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 171.6 tons (1.2%), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 229.3 tons (- 2.5%)[4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices increased, with the 01 contract rising by 24 yuan/ton (1.34%). The coking profit declined, with the weekly steel - union coking profit dropping by 11 yuan/ton[7]. Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal futures prices increased, with the 01 contract rising by 22 yuan/ton (1.7%). The sample coal mine profit increased by 34 yuan/ton (6.4%)[7]. Supply - The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.0 tons (- 1.5%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.3%)[7]. Demand - The hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.1 tons (- 0.9%)[7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased by 13.0 tons (- 1.4%), and the coking coal inventory showed a mixed trend, with an overall median increase[7].
宝城期货品种套利数据日报:宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年11月7日)-20251107
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 02:41
Report Overview - This is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for November 7, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of multiple futures varieties [1]. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the report. Summary by Category 1. Thermal Coal - **Basis Data**: The basis data from October 31 to November 6, 2025, shows changes, such as a basis of - 314 on October 31 and 66 on November 6 [2]. 2. Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - **Basis and Ratio**: Data from October 31 to November 6, 2025, shows the basis and ratio of fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt. For example, the basis of INE crude oil was - 74.14 on November 6 [7]. Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from October 31 to November 6, 2025, shows fluctuations. For instance, the basis of rubber was - 285 on October 31 and - 695 on November 6 [9]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., for 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 months are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber is 95 [10]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., from October 31 to November 6, 2025, are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2218 on October 31 and 2161 on November 6 [10]. 3. Black Metals - **Inter - period**: The inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal for 5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, and 9(10) - 5 months are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar is 68 [19]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads like rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., from October 31 to November 6, 2025, are shown. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.90 on October 31 and 3.91 on November 6 [19]. - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from October 31 to November 6, 2025, shows changes. For example, the basis of rebar was 104 on October 31 and 163 on November 6 [20]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - **Basis**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from October 31 to November 6, 2025, shows fluctuations. For example, the basis of copper was 750 on October 31 and - 260 on November 6 [28]. London Market - **LME Premium/Discount and Shanghai - London Ratio**: The LME premium/discount and Shanghai - London ratio data of copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., on November 6, 2025, are presented. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper was (30.96) and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.02 [33]. 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., from October 31 to November 6, 2025, shows changes. For example, the basis of soybeans was - 122 on October 31 and - 126 on November 6 [41]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period spreads of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., for 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 months are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans is 40 [41]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads such as soybean/corn, soybean meal/rapeseed meal, etc., from October 31 to November 6, 2025, are provided. For example, the soybean/corn ratio was 1.93 on both October 31 and November 6 [40]. 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from October 31 to November 6, 2025, shows fluctuations. For example, the basis of CSI 300 was 9.27 on October 31 and 22.60 on November 6 [52]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 for the next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter are presented. For example, the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 is - 124 [52].