8月6日，焦煤期货延续涨势，截至发稿主力合约报1220.5元/吨，涨幅6.41%。 【消息面汇总】 8月6日临汾市场炼焦煤竞拍价格跌多涨少。截至目前统计到7家煤矿成交结果，其中4家出现流拍，仅1 家上涨，成交价平均跌幅约20元/吨。尧都区高硫主焦A11、S3、G92成交价950元/吨跌20元/吨，蒲县低 硫肥煤A11、S0.5、G90成交价1453元/吨跌22元/吨，乡宁高硫瘦煤A11、S3、G70成交价728元/吨涨13 元/吨。短期价格或将震荡运行。 本周统计314家独立洗煤厂样本产能利用率为36.2%，环比增1.19%；精煤日产26.0万吨，环比增0.6万 吨；精煤库存288.1万吨，环比增2.1万吨。 正信期货：昨日市场传闻山西煤矿要倒查1-6月超产情况，市场情绪提振，焦煤主力触及涨停，夜盘维 持涨势。焦炭方面，现货提涨落地五轮，但原料煤反弹，焦企盈利改善不明显，供应端变化不大。铁水 小幅下滑，尚在高位，刚需支撑较强。焦煤方面，煤矿生产端仍受限，蒙煤288口岸日通关车数恢复中 性偏高水平。下游采购节奏放缓，煤矿新签单减少，但因煤矿前期预售较多，基本无销售压力。综合来 看；反内卷预期反复，煤矿供应端扰动 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term oversupply logic of lithium carbonate remains unchanged due to new projects in recent years, but short - term sentiment is highly volatile, with significant supply uncertainties and marginal improvements in supply - demand dynamics. LC prices are expected to remain in a wide - ranging consolidation pattern. It is advisable to focus on the LC2509 - LC2511 long spread and the LC2511 - LC2601 short spread [1][5][59][63]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Price Review and Four Changes 1.1 Price Review - Lithium prices this year have gone through three phases: a rebound before the Spring Festival due to bullish speculation and strong demand; a decline from February to May under the influence of factors like higher - than - expected supply, lowered demand forecasts, etc.; and a rebound since early June due to marginal improvements in fundamentals [12][13]. 1.2 Four Changes - **Macro Improvement**: Since 2025, as lithium prices entered the bottom range, macro factors have become more prominent. From April 2025, due to reciprocal tariffs, the influence of macro sentiment on lithium carbonate prices grew significantly, with R² jumping from near zero on April 7 to 0.8 by June and then easing to around 0.6. Since June, with eased US - China relations and stronger - than - expected demand resilience in some commodities, the market turned bullish and short positions in lithium carbonate were withdrawn [18][19][20]. - **Expected Temporary Supply Contraction**: The decline in lithium carbonate prices may lead to a reduction in China's lithium imports. From May to June, Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China dropped sharply by 46% and 41% year - on - year respectively. Lithium ore imports also decreased from June, with a 18.1% year - on - year decline in June [24][25]. - **Off - Season Demand Slightly Exceeds Expectations**: Historically, lithium carbonate demand weakens in June and July. However, in 2025, cathode production in June and July is expected to increase month - on - month by 3.7% and 2.5% respectively, showing demand resilience [32][33]. - **Rapid Warehouse Receipt Reduction**: Since late March, futures' decline led to spot premiums. Due to lower prices this year, companies hedged less, and futures discounts weakened the willingness to deliver but increased the demand for warehouse receipt. After a concentrated cancellation in April, warehouse receipt started declining from late May, and by the end of June, it dropped to 22,000 tons. Low warehouse receipt levels may support futures prices [35][36][38]. 2. Key Influencing Factors - **Mine Issues**: Since mid - July, concerns over mine violations and license renewals have drawn market attention. Officially announced suspensions by Zangge Mining and Jiangte Motor have a limited output impact. However, issues like unqualified mining licenses and expiring permits in some mines may constraint about 25,000 tons/month and 14,000 tons/month of lithium supply respectively. If mines shut down, Q3 will see a supply gap and price rebound; if not, prices will return to fundamentals [40][41][43]. - **Sentiment Against "Involution - style" Competition**: Since early July, this sentiment has spread across commodities. The impact on lithium carbonate smelting is relatively limited, but on the mining side, it may raise standards and costs. In the short term, it may cause companies to cut lithium carbonate purchases; in the long run, it may improve industry margins and lead to slight price increases [45][46][47]. - **Warehouse Receipt Issue**: July is a month of concentrated cancellations, with low and declining warehouse receipt levels. As prices rise, more registrations are expected in August. However, with high open interest in the September contract, limited warehouse receipt increases in August may pose risks [49][55]. 3. Supply - Demand Balance - In July - August, demand slightly exceeded expectations while imports fell short, likely maintaining a tight supply - demand equilibrium. If the peak season continues into September, a deficit of nearly 2,000 tons may emerge. Minor disruptions at major mines in August could cause a significant deficit, accelerating inventory drawdowns and price increases [56][57]. 4. Strategy Recommendation - It is advisable to focus on the LC2509 - LC2511 long spread (buy LC2509/sell LC2511) and the LC2511 - LC2601 short spread (sell LC2511/buy LC2601). The September - November spread could widen if mine production cuts materialize, presenting a long - spread opportunity; otherwise, the spread volatility will narrow. The November - January period is the consumption low season, and the LC2511 - LC2601 short spread is worth monitoring as it is less sensitive to mine production cuts, and the spread may return to below - 1,000 CNY/ton in Q4 [1][5][63].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 6, 2025 [1][4][5] Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 6, 2025, the domestic spot price was 78,625, the LME spot price was 9,647, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.17 with a profit of - 172.87. The domestic three - month price was 78,580, the LME three - month price was 9,715, and the ratio was 8.08 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,310, the LME spot price was 2,759, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.67 with a profit of - 1,611.98. The domestic three - month price was 22,390, the LME three - month price was 2,773, and the ratio was 6.01 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,520, the LME spot price was 2,574, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.50 with a profit of - 1,350.12. The domestic and LME three - month prices were both 20,530 and 2,574 respectively, and the ratio was 7.97 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 120,000, the LME spot price was 14,909, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.26 with a profit of - 2,154.23 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,525, the LME spot price was 1,927, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.87 with a profit of - 486.97. The domestic three - month price was 16,770, the LME three - month price was 1,969, and the ratio was 11.34 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 6, 2025, the spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were 230, 230, 210, and 160 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 494, 886, 1286, and 1687 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 120, 130, 125, and 110 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 335, 455, and 575 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 15, - 45, - 85, and - 145 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 329, 444, and 559 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 75, 70, 95, and 135 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 313, 418, and 522 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 420, 570, 740, and 980 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 810, and the theoretical spread was 5552 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 245 and - 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 172 and 641 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 50 and 70 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 119 and 249 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 175 and 250 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 135 and 245 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On August 6, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.51, 3.83, 4.69, 0.92, 1.22, and 0.75 respectively, and for LME (three - continuous) were 3.49, 3.76, 4.88, 0.93, 1.30, and 0.72 respectively [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 4, 2025 [1][4][5] Summary by Category Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 78370 in domestic and 9595 in LME with a ratio of 8.16; March price is 78390 in domestic and 9645 in LME with a ratio of 8.11. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.19 with a profit of - 18.16; spot export profit is - 12.21 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22310 in domestic and 2740 in LME with a ratio of 8.14; March price is 22330 in domestic and 2751 in LME with a ratio of 6.04. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.68 with a profit of - 1484.30 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20520 in domestic and 2572 in LME with a ratio of 7.98; March price is 20465 in domestic and 2575 in LME with a ratio of 7.95. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.51 with a profit of - 1364.15 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price is 118650 in domestic and 14742 in LME with a ratio of 8.05. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.27 with a profit of - 1639.80 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price is 16450 in domestic and 1925 in LME with a ratio of 8.60; March price is 16745 in domestic and 1967 in LME with a ratio of 11.37. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.88 with a profit of - 549.50 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 300, 290, 230, 200 respectively; the theoretical spreads are 493, 883, 1283, 1682 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 35, - 25, - 30, - 55 respectively; the theoretical spreads are 215, 336, 456, 577 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 70, - 115, - 160, - 210 respectively; the theoretical spreads are 214, 329, 444, 559 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 295, 305, 325, 280 respectively; the theoretical spreads are 207, 310, 414, 517 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 770, 900, 1160, 1400 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 1150 and the theoretical spread is 5510 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are - 205 and 95 respectively; the theoretical spreads are 230 and 707 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 45 and 10 respectively; the theoretical spreads are 136 and 250 respectively [5] - **Lead**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are - 10 and 285 respectively; the theoretical spreads are 122 and 233 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of沪（三连） for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc are 3.51, 3.83, 4.68, 0.92, 1.22, 0.75 respectively; the ratios of伦（三连） are 3.53, 3.75, 4.88, 0.94, 1.30, 0.72 respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - The main contract for urea in July experienced significant fluctuations, with prices rising and then falling, influenced by external market sentiments and a lack of clear trends in price movements [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side remained relatively stable with minimal changes in existing load [1] - Demand increased seasonally due to higher compound fertilizer loads and export boosts, leading to smooth destocking in the urea industry [1] - However, at the end of the month, low terminal purchasing enthusiasm, declining port inventories, and adjustments in coal prices caused a rebound in industry inventories [1] Market Outlook - The overall improvement in supply and demand for urea was limited, providing insufficient support for market prices [1] - Future market dynamics are expected to be influenced by macroeconomic factors and industry conditions, with limited support for urea demand due to declining agricultural needs and insufficient industrial demand growth [1] - It is anticipated that urea prices will likely continue to experience wide fluctuations and adjustments in August [1] Arbitrage Opportunities - The 09 contract is expected to gradually reflect delivery logic, with insufficient rebound momentum [1] - As the main contract transitions, the price spread between UR09 and UR01 is expected to weaken, allowing for gradual profit-taking from previous short positions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The price of soda ash's main contract fluctuated significantly in July, with expectations of a weak adjustment in August due to macroeconomic factors and industry dynamics [1] Price Fluctuation - In July, the main soda ash contract experienced amplified price volatility influenced by external sentiment and market emotions [1] - Early in the month, optimistic expectations regarding anti-involution policies led to a rapid price increase, but by the end of July, weaker-than-expected macro policies cooled market sentiment, causing prices to decline [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The soda ash production load decreased month-on-month, but downstream purchasing intentions remained weak, resulting in soft terminal demand [1] - Both industry inventory and delivery inventory increased month-on-month, indicating significant absolute inventory pressure [1] - The upcoming supply side is expected to show limited contraction, while new capacity releases will gradually reveal supply pressure in the future [1] - Demand may also contract, particularly in the photovoltaic glass sector, leading to further pressure on the market [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - External sentiment continues to impact prices, with expectations of a high probability of weak adjustments in the soda ash market in August [1] - The logic of the 09 contract transitioning to physical delivery is under pressure due to tight delivery inventory and difficulties in spot sales [1] - Currently, the price difference between SA09 and SA01 is weak, and further weakening is limited after the main contract shifts [1]

期货热点追踪 美国铜进口关税豁免后，COMEX与LME价差一夜归零！套利空间还有吗？ 相关链接 ...

Report Summary 1) Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2) Core Views - PX: The commodity market is weakening, and PX long - positions are being reduced. Suggest going long PX and short PTA01 contracts, and shorting PXN on rallies. The supply is marginally decreasing, but the cost side is strengthening, so PXN should be shorted on highs [1][8]. - PTA: The trend is weak. Consider basis reverse arbitrage and focus on long - short positive arbitrage for the monthly spread. The supply pressure is increasing, and the basis remains suitable for reverse arbitrage. With potential changes in device operations in August, the 9 - 1 monthly spread positive arbitrage can be considered. The polyester start - up may bottom out in the short term, and the processing fee of the 01 contract is trending down [1][8][9]. - MEG: The unilateral trend is still weak. Consider basis positive arbitrage and monthly spread reverse arbitrage. Supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts is a concern. The port inventory is falling, but the monthly spread is weak due to delivery pressure. The spread between ethylene glycol and plastics/styrene is at a high level, so consider shorting ethylene glycol and going long L. The supply is relatively loose, and some ethylene oxide devices may switch to produce ethylene glycol [1][9][10]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: Concerns about the lack of progress in Sino - US trade negotiations are increasing, pressuring the spot market. Supply tightness in August and September is expected to ease, and the PX - naphtha spread is weakening. The PX start - up rate in China is about 80.5%, and the PX price fell on July 31 [3][5]. - PTA: A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has a temporary shutdown, and some other devices have reduced loads. The PTA start - up rate is about 81.2%, and the capacity base has been adjusted to 8851.5 million tons since July 1, 2025 [5]. - MEG: A 300,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol device in Inner Mongolia has a temporary shutdown, and a 400,000 - ton/year device in Xinjiang has restarted. The overall start - up load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 69% (up 0.65% from the previous period), and the capacity base has been adjusted to 2917.5 million tons since June 1, 2025 [6]. - Polyester: Two polyester devices are under maintenance, and a new 300,000 - ton polyester device in Anhui has been put into production. The overall polyester load is fluctuating, and the start - up load of domestic polyester industrial yarn has dropped to about 67%. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on July 31 were weak, and the average sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were 53% [6][7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is - 1, indicating a weak trend [8]. Futures and Spot Data | Futures | PX | PTA | MEG | PF | SC | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's closing price | 6928 | 4808 | 4414 | 6464 | 531.3 | | Change | - 64 | - 48 | - 36 | - 36 | 2.7 | | Change rate | - 0.80% | - 0.99% | - 0.81% | - 0.55% | 0.51% | | Monthly spread (yesterday's closing price) | 64 | - 32 | - 27 | - 58 | 5.2 | | Monthly spread (change) | - 42 | - 34 | 1 | - 4 | - 1.9 | | Spot price (yesterday) | 859.33 (USD/ton) | 4826 (CNY/ton) | 4492 | 611 | 72.7 (USD/barrel) | | Spot price (change) | - 7 | - 32 | - 33 | 2.75 | - 0.85 | | Spot processing fee (yesterday) | 292.5 | 192.67 | 84.81 | - 22.45 | - 6.01 | | Spot processing fee (change) | 12.96 | - 5.64 | - 30.82 | 6.34 | 0 | [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PX**: Go long on PX and short on PTA01 contract, and short PXN on rallies. Cost end strengthens significantly, and there is a marginal decrease in supply. Consider a rolling positive spread arbitrage for the monthly spread [1][6]. - **PTA**: With the new device of Sanfangxiang gradually coming into operation, the supply pressure continues to increase. Pay attention to going long on PX and short on PTA for the 01 contract. The basis maintains a weak state, and continue the reverse spread operation for the basis. The monthly spread is approaching parity. Considering the reduced inventory accumulation in August due to the maintenance of multiple Yisheng Petrochemical devices, pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage for the 9 - 1 monthly spread [1][6]. - **MEG**: Conduct basis positive spread arbitrage and monthly spread reverse spread arbitrage. The market is concerned about the supply pressure brought by non - mainstream warehouse receipts. The port inventory is continuously decreasing, but the monthly spread remains weak due to the delivery pressure of the 09 contract. The trend of ethylene glycol is weak. Pay attention to the arbitrage of shorting ethylene glycol and going long on L. The supply is slightly loose, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol devices has rebounded [1][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **PX**: On the 30th, the PX price rose, with the end - of - session spot for September at 868/871 in negotiation and October at 860/864 in negotiation, but no transactions. A 1.34 - million - ton PX device in the Middle East has produced products recently and is currently increasing its load [3]. - **PTA**: A new 3.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has one line put into production recently and is in product debugging. A 50,000 - ton IPA device in North China is restarting and is expected to produce products next week [3]. - **MEG**: On the 30th, the average daily price of MEG spot was 4,527 yuan/ton, and the average daily price of futures for the end of August was 4,528 yuan/ton. The average spot price in Ningbo market was 4,542 yuan/ton, and the average non - coal - based spot price in South China market was 4,510 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polyester**: On the 30th, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang partially increased, with the average sales volume estimated at 6 - 70%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were average, with an average sales volume of 43% as of 3:00 p.m [4][5]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene is 0, the trend intensity of PTA is - 1, and the trend intensity of MEG is - 1 [5]. Futures and Spot Data | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6,984 | 4,856 | 4,450 | 6,500 | 528.6 | | Change | 6,942 | 18 | - 17 | 0 | 13.6 | | Change Rate | 0.61% | 0.37% | - 0.38% | 0.00% | 2.64% | | Monthly Spread | PX9 - 1 | PTA9 - 1 | MEG9 - 1 | PF9 - 1 | SC9 - 10 | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 106 | 2 | - 28 | - 54 | 7.1 | | Previous Day's Closing Price | 108 | 6 | - 25 | - 32 | 6.6 | | Change | - 2 | - 4 | - 3 | - 22 | 0.5 | | Spot | PX CFR China ($/ton) | PTA East China (yuan/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | | Yesterday's Price | 866.33 | 4,858 | 4,525 | 608.25 | 73.56 | | Previous Day's Price | 857.33 | 4,830 | 4,518 | 589.25 | 71.48 | | Change | 9 | 28 | 7 | 19 | 2.08 | | Spot Processing Fee | PX - Naphtha Spread | PTA Processing Fee | Staple Fiber Processing Fee | Bottle Chip Processing Fee | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | | Yesterday's Price | 292.5 | 192.67 | 84.81 | - 22.45 | - 6.01 | | Previous Day's Price | 279.55 | 198.31 | 115.62 | - 28.79 | - 6.01 | | Change | 12.96 | - 5.64 | - 30.82 | 6.34 | 0 | [2]

纯苯、苯乙烯周报 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2025年7月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯观点：短期反内卷情绪高涨，实际影响有限，压缩EB利润 | | • | 反内卷：纯苯2005年以前产能326万吨，占比12%；加氢苯2005年以前产能74万吨，占比8%；苯乙烯2005年以前112万吨，占比5%。 | | --- | --- | --- | | | • | 纯苯国产：7月计划检修损失量9万吨左右（富海、福海创、浙石化、天津石化），8月检修损失量下滑至4万吨，9月计划检修量7万吨。 7-9月将集中迎来纯苯新装置投产。关注7月中海油大榭600万吨炼油、150万重整于7月21日投产，7月下京博100万吨轻烃裂解投产， | | | | 8月10日吉林石化100万吨乙烯裂解投产、8月底湖南石化100万吨重整投产，8月中下裕龙260万吨重整计划投产 | | 供应 | • | 纯苯进口：美国对海外持续征收关税以及美国国内下游装置重启，美国纯苯价格企稳反弹，U ...