ᵕ䍝⹊ガᣛ ᣋ䍺䈘ѐࣗ䍺Ṳφ䇷ⴇ䇮ਥɋ2011Ɍ1778ਭ ᇓคᵕ䍝〃ྍᮦᦤᰛᣛδ2025ᒪ 12ᴾ 22ᰛε | | ֌ս | Ԉԃ䑘ͧҫ | ⩰ͨ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ߊޙ | ׂٛ | ߃ ߃ | ߃ ߃ | ߃ ߃ | | 2025/12/19 | -98.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/18 | -90.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/17 | -83.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/16 | -74.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/15 | -64.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | www.bcqhgs.com 1 ᶣᐔᐸ≸ᱥ䐥8ਭݹޢཝড়ђ㼏ᾲ1-5ቸ ➚࣑ࣞжȽ ᵕ䍝⹊ガᣛ | | ֌ս | ਈ࢛͹ׂٛͧҫ⩰ͨ | џࡁ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ߊޙ | /4 + ࡝Խ | ࡝މࣆ | 㿿ற ࡝Խ | | 2025/12/19 | -1.47 | 88.52 | 0 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures commodities on December 22, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, mainly showing the basis, inter - period and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary by Category Power Coal - **Basis**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the basis of power coal decreased from - 64.40 yuan/ton to - 98.40 yuan/ton [2] - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads of "5 - month minus 1 - month", "9 - month minus 1 - month", and "9 - month minus 5 - month" were all 0 during this period [2] Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - **Basis**: Data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt are provided from December 15 - 19, 2025, with different values for each day. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on December 19 was 39.52 yuan/ton [7] Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from December 15 - 19, 2025 is presented. For example, the basis of rubber on December 19 was - 340 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the "5 - month minus 1 - month" spread of rubber was - 25 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 15 - 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on December 19 was 1721 yuan/ton [10] Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 15 - 19, 2025 is shown. For example, the basis of rebar on December 19 was 201.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the "5 - month minus 1 - month" spread of rebar was - 2.0 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from December 15 - 19, 2025 are given. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on December 19 was 4.01 [19] Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - **Basis**: The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 15 - 19, 2025 is provided. For example, the basis of copper on December 19 was - 980 yuan/ton [30] London Market - **LME spreads and related data**: On December 19, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was 4.73 [33] Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 15 - 19, 2025 is shown. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on December 19 was - 32 yuan/ton [39] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. For example, the "5 - month minus 1 - month" spread of soybeans No.1 was 35 yuan/ton [39] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from December 15 - 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on December 19 was 1.85 [39] Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 15 - 19, 2025 is provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on December 19 was 41.18 [50] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of "next - month minus current - month" and "next - quarter minus current - quarter" for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the "next - month minus current - month" spread of CSI 300 was - 216 [50]

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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Platinum continues to rise impulsively, and palladium is moving forward to break through the previous high. Both platinum and palladium are relatively strong. The price ranges are 500 - 580 yuan/gram for Guangbo platinum and 440 - 520 yuan/gram for Guangbo palladium. [3][4] - This week, both Guangbo platinum and palladium had strong rallies, with weekly gains of over 15%. Overseas platinum and palladium also showed strength. The rally was due to the weak US dollar and the tight spot market in London, along with high investment sentiment. It is expected that platinum and palladium will continue to rise strongly next week, with greater volatility expected for Guangbo platinum. [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Funds, and Positions) - This week, the 2612 contracts of platinum and palladium were launched for trading. As of Friday's close, the total positions of Guangbo platinum were 37,675 lots with a trading volume of 548,453 lots, and the total positions of Guangbo palladium were 15,079 lots with a trading volume of 322,496 lots. The current monthly structure of platinum is PT2606 < PT2608 < PT2610 < PT2612, and that of palladium is PD2606 < PD2608 < PD2610 < PD2612. The inventory data of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is not yet disclosed. [8] - This week, the spread between London spot platinum and New York platinum's active contract widened to an average of -$60 per ounce. The spread between New York platinum's continuous contract and the active contract became at a discount, with an average spread of -$60 per ounce in the past three days. The spread between London spot palladium and New York palladium's active contract was further at a discount, reaching -$100 per ounce, and the spread between New York palladium's continuous contract and the active contract also remained negative, with a spread of -$50 per ounce on Friday. [10][13] - For platinum's spot-futures positive arbitrage (buy spot and sell 2606), the cost is 8.2 yuan/gram, the spread is 21.9 yuan/gram, and there is a profit margin of 13.7 yuan/gram. For palladium's spot-futures positive arbitrage, the cost is 7.1 yuan/gram, the spread is 50.2 yuan/gram, and there is a profit margin of 43.1 yuan/gram. [16][18] - For platinum's near-far month calendar spread positive arbitrage (buy 2606 and sell 2610), the cost is 6.6 yuan/gram, the spread is only 3.4 yuan/gram, and the arbitrage window is not yet open. For palladium's near-far month calendar spread positive arbitrage, the cost is 5.9 yuan/gram, the spread is 3.0 yuan/gram, and the arbitrage window is not yet open. [20][22] - For the import parity calculation of platinum (buy London platinum forward and sell 2606), the cost is 57.2 yuan/gram, the spread is 110.2 yuan/gram, and there is a profit margin of 53 yuan/gram. For palladium, the cost is 51.8 yuan/gram, the spread is 97.6 yuan/gram, and there is a profit margin of 45.8 yuan/gram. [24][26] - As the absolute prices of platinum and palladium rose this week, the recycling discount of platinum slightly deepened to -98 yuan/gram, and that of palladium also slightly deepened to -53 yuan/gram. [28] - This week, the holdings of platinum ETFs increased by 1.23 tons (about 395,000 ounces), and the holdings of palladium ETFs increased by 0.92 tons (about 296,000 ounces). [30] Fundamentals (Inventory and Import - Export Data) - In the past month, both the overseas forward markets of platinum and palladium have been in a contango structure. In the past week, the contango of platinum has shown an upward trend again, with all tenors' contango remaining above 10% annualized. The contango depth of palladium has decreased, with all tenors' contango falling within 3% annualized. [36] - This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory slightly increased to 624,700 ounces, about 19.43 tons, and the proportion of registered warrants fell below 50%. The NYMEX palladium inventory slightly decreased to 189,100 ounces, about 5.9 tons, and the proportion of registered warrants slightly rebounded to 70.3%. [37][40] - Since 2020, palladium has had almost no export volume and has been in a state of pure import, with a cumulative net inflow of 162 tons. In October, the import volume was 2.98 tons, and the net inflow was 2.96 tons. In November, the data is not yet available. Since September 2025, the export volume of platinum has increased sharply, and the import volume and net inflow have diverged. Since January 2020, the cumulative net inflow of platinum has been 547.98 tons. In October, the import volume was 10.15 tons, and the net inflow was 6.43 tons. In November, the data is not yet available. [47] - A negative supply - demand balance indicates that the total buy orders are greater than the sell orders, and the market - makers of the London platinum and palladium fixing prices have a stronger willingness to buy. The supply - demand balance of London platinum fixing was negative for four days this week, indicating a tight spot market for London platinum. The supply - demand balance of London palladium fixing was negative on Thursday and Friday. [48][49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on December 18, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, showing the basis, inter - period and inter - variety spreads of different commodities [1][5][20][26][41][51] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - The report shows the basis data of power coal from December 11 to December 17, 2025. The basis on December 17 was - 83.4 yuan/ton, showing a continuous decline trend compared with previous days [1][2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - It provides the basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 11 to December 17, 2025. For example, the basis of fuel oil on December 17 was - 19.33 yuan/ton [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on December 17 was - 340 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber was - 45 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are shown. On December 17, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2110 yuan/ton [10] 3. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of螺纹钢, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of螺纹钢 on December 17 was 206.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) of螺纹钢, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. The 5 - 1 month spread of螺纹钢 was - 13.0 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of螺/矿, 螺/焦炭, 焦炭/焦煤, and 螺 - 热卷 from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are given. On December 17, the 螺/矿 ratio was 4.03 [19] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of copper on December 17 was - 660 yuan/ton [28] (2) London Market - On December 17, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the London market are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (15.30) [33] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are shown. The basis of soybeans No.1 on December 17 was - 70 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of various agricultural products are provided, such as the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 was 39 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. on December 17, 2025 are given. The ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.85 [41] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are presented. The basis of CSI 300 on December 17 was 1.68 [52] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are shown. The next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 194 [52]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on December 16, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - Basis data from December 9 to December 15, 2025 shows that the basis on December 15 was - 64.4 yuan/ton, gradually decreasing from - 32.4 yuan/ton on December 9 [2]. Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 9 to December 15, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on December 15 was 55.24 yuan/ton [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: Inter - month spreads and inter - commodity spreads data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented. For instance, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of LLDPE is 36 yuan/ton, and on December 15, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2270 yuan/ton [9]. Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 9 to December 15, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of rebar on December 15 was 176.0 yuan/ton [20]. - Inter - month spreads and inter - commodity spreads data are also provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rebar is - 15.0 yuan/ton, and on December 15, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 407 [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 9 to December 15, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of copper on December 15 was - 180 yuan/ton [28]. - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for LME non - ferrous metals on December 15, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was (4.39), and the import loss was (1202.68) yuan/ton [33]. Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 9 to December 15, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on December 15 was - 110 yuan/ton [42]. - Inter - month spreads data for multiple agricultural products are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 is 38 yuan/ton. - Inter - commodity spreads data such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal are provided. On December 15, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.85 [42]. Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 9 to December 15, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on December 15 was 6.46 [53]. - Inter - month spreads data for the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter of the above - mentioned stock indices are given. For example, the next - month minus the current - month spread of CSI 300 is - 160 [53].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-12 社会库存稳中回落 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为158.52美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化40元/吨至23110元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水65元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日40元/吨至23030元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-15元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日40元/吨至23000元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-45元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-11沪锌主力合约开于23050元/吨，收于22995元/吨，较前一交易日-70元/吨，全天交易日成交93062 手，全天交易日持仓88499手，日内价格最高点达到23095元/吨，最低点达到22920元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-12-11，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为12.82万吨，较上期变化-0.78万吨。截止2025-12-11，LME 锌库存为60350吨，较上一交易日变化550吨。 市场分析 锌锭社会库存持续稳重回落，呈现出季节性去库走势，下游开工率整体继续保持平稳，广东地区现货贴水大幅度 修复，下游接货偏谨慎，贸易商积极出货，近月合约价差收至平水，更多缘于现货市场供应减少。矿 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 12, 2025 [1][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On December 12, 2025, the domestic spot price was 92450, LME spot price was 11650, with a spot ratio of 7.88. The import profit for spot was - 1540.94, and the export profit was 112.29. The three - month domestic price was 92310, LME price was 11625, with a ratio of 7.99 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 23120, LME spot price was 3260, with a spot ratio of 7.09. The import profit for spot was - 4336.08. The three - month domestic price was 23000, LME price was 3088, with a ratio of 5.57 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21880, LME spot price was 2846, with a spot ratio of 7.69. The import profit for spot was - 1750.04. The three - month domestic price was 21970, LME price was 2873, with a ratio of 7.68 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 118600, LME spot price was 14458, with a spot ratio of 8.20. The import profit for spot was - 1145.68 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17100, LME spot price was 1941, with a spot ratio of 8.80. The import profit for spot was 254.08. The three - month domestic price was 17160, LME price was 1989, with a ratio of 11.59 [1][3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 430, 530, 510, and 400 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 561, 1020, 1488, and 1956 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 85, - 80, - 45, - 45, and the theoretical spreads were 218, 343, 467, 592 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 50, 110, 155, 195, and the theoretical spreads were 220, 342, 463, 584 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 90, 95, 80, 115, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 317, 423, 529 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 280, - 90, 140, 350 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 620, and the theoretical spread was 6602 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 855 and - 425, while the theoretical spreads were 40 and 613 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 40 and - 125, and the theoretical spreads were 65 and 200 [4][5] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 35 and 55, and the theoretical spreads were 83 and 196 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On December 12, 2025, for cross - variety ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc, the Shanghai (three - continuous) ratios were 4.01, 4.20, 5.38, 0.96, 1.28, 0.75 respectively, and the London (three - continuous) ratios were 3.71, 4.09, 5.97, 0.91, 1.46, 0.62 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data of Baocheng Futures on December 12, 2025, presenting data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads for multiple futures varieties across different sectors. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis Data**: The basis of power coal on December 11, 2025, was - 48.4 yuan/ton, showing a downward trend compared to previous days. The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0 [1][2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Energy Commodity Basis**: For fuel oil and INE crude oil, the basis on December 11, 2025, was - 1.64 yuan/ton and - 2.37 yuan/ton respectively. The ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1485 [7]. - **Chemical Commodity Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the basis of rubber was - 285 yuan/ton, methanol was 51 yuan/ton, PTA was - 14 yuan/ton, LLDPE was 466 yuan/ton, V was 84 yuan/ton, and PP was 148 yuan/ton [9]. - **Chemical Commodity Inter - period Spreads**: For the 5 - 1 inter - period, rubber was - 30 yuan/ton, methanol was 57 yuan/ton, etc.; for the 9 - 1 inter - period, rubber was - 10 yuan/ton, methanol was 54 yuan/ton, etc.; for the 9 - 5 inter - period, rubber was 20 yuan/ton, methanol was - 3 yuan/ton, etc. [10]. - **Chemical Commodity Inter - variety Spreads**: On December 11, 2025, LLDPE - PVC was 2267 yuan/ton, LLDPE - PP was 377 yuan/ton, etc. [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Black Metal Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the basis of rebar was 181.0 yuan/ton, iron ore was 33.0 yuan/ton, coke was 113.5 yuan/ton, and coking coal was 135.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Black Metal Inter - period Spreads**: For the 5 - 1 inter - period, rebar was - 10.0 yuan/ton, iron ore was - 20.0 yuan/ton, etc.; for the 9(10) - 1 inter - period, rebar was 22.0 yuan/ton, iron ore was - 43.5 yuan/ton, etc.; for the 9(10) - 5 inter - period, rebar was 32.0 yuan/ton, iron ore was - 23.5 yuan/ton, etc. [19]. - **Black Metal Inter - variety Spreads**: On December 11, 2025, the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.05, the ratio of rebar to coke was 2.0289, etc. [19]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the domestic basis of copper was 170 yuan/ton, aluminum was - 80 yuan/ton, zinc was 125 yuan/ton, lead was 5 yuan/ton, nickel was 3350 yuan/ton, and tin was - 600 yuan/ton [29]. - **London Market Data**: On December 11, 2025, the LME copper premium/discount was 24.76, aluminum was (26.68), etc.; the Shanghai - London ratio of copper was 7.93, aluminum was 7.65, etc.; the CIF price of copper was 94072.03, aluminum was 23768.13, etc.; the domestic spot price of copper was 92950.00, aluminum was 21910.00, etc.; the import profit/loss of copper was (1122.03), aluminum was (1858.13), etc. [34]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Agricultural Product Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 153 yuan/ton, soybeans No.2 was - 60.11 yuan/ton, soybean meal was 310 yuan/ton, soybean oil was 534 yuan/ton, and corn was 37 yuan/ton [42]. - **Agricultural Product Inter - period Spreads**: For soybeans No.1, the 5 - 1 inter - period was 11 yuan/ton, 9 - 1 was 14 yuan/ton, 9 - 5 was 38 yuan/ton; for other products, similar data are provided [42]. - **Agricultural Product Inter - variety Spreads**: On December 11, 2025, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.86, soybeans No.2 to corn was 1.69, etc. [41]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Stock Index Futures Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the basis of CSI 300 was 12.58, SSE 50 was 7.23, CSI 500 was 8.49, and CSI 1000 was 7.40 [53]. - **Stock Index Futures Inter - period Spreads**: For the CSI 300, the next - month minus current - month was - 16.0, the next - quarter minus current - quarter was - 43.6; for other indices, similar data are provided [53].

1. Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices have significantly declined, and the basis has strengthened during the period. The 1 - 5 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coils shows a positive spread trend, while steel mill profits have converged. The decline in steel prices is mainly affected by the fall in raw material prices. The steel fundamentals show a trend of production cut and inventory reduction, with weak downward momentum. However, the total demand is average, and the decline in hot - metal production suppresses raw material prices. Currently, steel prices are falling, and attention should be paid to the support near the lower limit of the range. The 5 - month contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils should pay attention to the support levels of 3100 and 3200 respectively. Considering the differentiation in inventory reduction between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the spread convergence arbitrage can be continued. Considering the decline in hot - metal production, which suppresses iron ore prices, the long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage of the January contract can be continued [2]. Iron Ore Industry - Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated weakly. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume increased week - on - week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, steel mills continued to cut production, hot - metal output decreased, steel mill maintenance increased, steel prices fluctuated and rebounded, and the profitability of steel mills improved. From the data of five major steel products, steel output decreased, inventory continued to decline, and apparent demand seasonally decreased. In terms of inventory, iron ore port inventory increased, and the port clearance volume decreased, while the equity inventory of steel mills increased. Looking forward, this week, hot - metal output decreased, steel prices showed signs of bottom - rebounding, market expectations began to improve. With the recovery of downstream demand, there is no basis for a large decline in hot - metal output, which supports iron ore demand. Iron ore has support from downstream restocking on one hand and a need for basis repair on the other hand. Considering the high price level, iron ore futures will fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to sell short the Iron Ore 2601 contract on rallies, with an operating range of 750 - 820. The 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage is recommended [6]. Coke Industry - Yesterday, coke futures showed a weak downward trend. On the spot side, the first round of coke price cuts started to be implemented at 0:00 on December 1st, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts in the short term. The port price has fallen in advance. On the supply side, the price cut range of coking coal in the Shanxi market has expanded, the auction prices of various coking coal varieties have continued to decline. Coke price adjustment lags behind coking coal, coking profits have been repaired to some extent, and the operating rate has increased. On the demand side, steel mills have increased maintenance due to losses, hot - metal output has declined, steel prices have fluctuated and rebounded, and steel mill profits have been repaired to some extent, with a willingness to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coking plants have increased inventory, while ports and steel mills have reduced inventory. The overall inventory is slightly higher than the middle level, and the coke supply - demand situation has weakened. Coke futures have fallen in advance, and the spot price decline refers to the downward space of coking coal and is still in the bottom - exploring stage. In terms of strategy, it is recommended to take a bearish view on the single - side with an oscillating trend, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700. The long - coke and short - coking - coal arbitrage is recommended [10]. Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend. On the spot side, the auction prices of Shanxi coking coal continued to decline, Mongolian coal quotes fell, and the recent auction failure rate has fluctuated between 30 - 50%. Traders are cautious and the thermal coal market has continued to decline. The coal spot market has once again shifted to a loose situation. On the supply side, coal mine shipments have worsened, daily production has slightly decreased, coal mines have accumulated inventory again due to unsold products, and coal mine production may continue to decline near the end of the year. In terms of imported coal, port inventory has continued to increase, Mongolian coal quotes have followed the futures price down, and the recent customs clearance has rebounded to a high level. On the demand side, steel mills have increased maintenance due to losses, hot - metal output has declined, the coking profit has recovered, and the operating rate has slightly increased. The market's restocking demand has weakened. In terms of inventory, coking enterprises and steel mills have reduced inventory, while coal mines, coal washing plants, ports, and ports have increased inventory. The overall inventory is slightly higher than the middle level. In terms of policy, ensuring the long - term contract coal supply for power plants remains the main tone, and the over - capacity pattern continues. In terms of strategy, coking coal spot prices have continued to fall, the futures price has dropped significantly, and the main contract has shifted to the Coking Coal 2605 contract. It is recommended to take a bearish view on the single - side with an oscillating trend, with a reference range of 1000 - 1150. The long - coke and short - coking - coal arbitrage is recommended [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Price and Spread - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices have all declined. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils has shown different changes. For example, the basis of rebar in the East China region is 163, and the basis of hot - rolled coils in the East China region is - 10. The 1 - 5 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coils shows a positive spread trend [2]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices have decreased by 40 to 2950, and plate billet prices remain unchanged at 3730. The costs of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar and converter rebar have both decreased. The profits of hot - rolled coils in the East China, North China, and South China regions, as well as the profits of rebar in different regions, have shown different changes, with some profits narrowing [2]. Production - The daily average hot - metal output has decreased by 2.4 to 232.3, a decline of 1.0%. The output of five major steel products has decreased by 26.8 to 829.0, a decline of 3.1%. The rebar output has decreased by 16.8 to 189.3, a decline of 8.1%, and the hot - rolled coil output has decreased by 4.7 to 314.3, a decline of 1.5% [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 35.2 to 1365.6, a decline of 2.5%. Rebar inventory has decreased from 531.5 to 503.8, and hot - rolled coil inventory has slightly decreased from 400.9 to 400.4 [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume has decreased by 1.3 to 10.2, a decline of 15.1%. The apparent demand of five major steel products has decreased by 23.8 to 864.2, a decline of 2.7%. The apparent demand of rebar has decreased by 11.0 to 217.0, a decline of 4.8%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils has decreased by 5.4 to 314.9, a decline of 1.7% [2]. Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines have all decreased. The basis of the 01 contract for different iron ore varieties has increased to varying degrees. The 5 - 9 spread has decreased by 1.5 to 23.5, a decline of 6.0%, the 9 - 1 spread remains unchanged at - 41.5, and the 1 - 5 spread has increased by 1.5 to 18.0, an increase of 9.1% [6]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports (weekly) has decreased by 218.8 to 2480.5, a decline of 8.1%, and the global shipment volume (weekly) has increased by 45.4 to 3368.6, an increase of 1.4%. The national monthly import volume has decreased by 500.6 to 11130.9, a decline of 4.3% [6]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills (weekly) has decreased by 2.4 to 232.3, a decline of 1.0%. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports (weekly) has decreased by 8.5 to 318.5, a decline of 2.6%. The national monthly pig - iron output has decreased by 49.7 to 6554.9, a decline of 0.8%, and the national monthly crude - steel output has decreased by 149.3 to 7199.7, a decline of 2.0% [6]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports (compared with Monday, weekly) has increased by 63.4 to 15300.81, an increase of 0.4%. The imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) has increased by 42.3 to 8984.7, an increase of 0.5%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) have decreased by 1.0 to 19.0, a decline of 5.0% [6]. Coke Industry Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remain unchanged. The prices of the 01 and 05 coke contracts have declined. The coking profit (weekly) has decreased from - 43 to - 54 [10]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants has increased by 0.8 to 64.5, an increase of 1.2%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills has increased by 0.3 to 46.6, an increase of 0.6% [10]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills has decreased by 2.4 to 232.3, a decline of 1.0% [10]. Inventory - The total coke inventory has decreased slightly from 884.7 to 883.0. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants has increased from 71.8 to 76.4, an increase of 6.5%, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills has slightly decreased, and the port inventory has decreased from 187.4 to 181.3, a decline of 3.3% [10]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap has changed from - 1.3 to 2.2, an increase of 3.6 [10]. Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) and Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) have declined. The prices of the 01 and 05 coking coal contracts have declined. The coking coal profit (weekly) of sample coal mines has decreased by 16, a decline of 2.9% [10]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines has decreased by 2.7 to 853.4, a decline of 0.3%, and the clean coal output has decreased by 0.6 to 438.2, a decline of 0.1% [10]. Demand - The demand for coking coal is affected by the production situation of coke. As the coking profit recovers, the operating rate of coking plants has slightly increased, but the overall demand has weakened due to the decline in hot - metal output [10]. Inventory - The clean - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines has increased from 107.6 to 127.6, an increase of 18.7%. The coking - coal inventory of all - sample coking plants has slightly decreased from 1010.3 to 1009.2, the coking - coal inventory of 247 steel mills has decreased from 801.3 to 798.3, a decline of 0.4%, and the port inventory has increased [10].