Group 1 - Trump's unexpected statement about potentially reaching a new agreement with China within a month and not raising tax rates has sparked significant discussion [2] - This shift in stance is interpreted as a response to strong backlash against his policies, indicating that his previous hardline approach is no longer sustainable [5][7] - Polls show over half of respondents are dissatisfied with Trump's economic policies, with his economic approval rating dropping to 43%, the lowest during his presidency [5][7] Group 2 - There is a growing pessimism among Americans regarding the economy, with notable criticism from former Democratic presidents who express concerns about Trump's policies [7][9] - Some Republican lawmakers are beginning to voice their discontent with the tariff policies, with even Trump's allies questioning the impact on American consumers [9] - Over 900 economists and business leaders have called for an end to the "reciprocal tariffs," citing negative effects on U.S. manufacturing, agriculture, and consumer markets [12] Group 3 - Inflation is affecting everyday life, with reports of egg prices soaring to $15 per dozen, indicating severe price instability [12] - Trump has clashed with the Federal Reserve over interest rate policies, seeking cuts to stimulate consumption, but the Fed has resisted these requests [12][14] - Trump's strategy to isolate China has backfired, as traditional allies like Japan and the UK express reluctance to align with U.S. policies against China [14][15] Group 4 - China's response to the trade war has been proactive, with a commitment to open economic cooperation, indicating a shift from passive defense to active engagement in reshaping global trade dynamics [17] - The failure of Trump's "maximum pressure" strategy is evident as he faces domestic dissent and international isolation, struggling to address the root causes of these issues [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Donald Trump's political strategies and their implications in the context of changing international dynamics, emphasizing his adaptability and focus on personal and political interests [2][10]. Group 1: Trump's Business Background and Political Rise - Trump, born in 1946, leveraged his business acumen and media presence to become a prominent political figure, notably through his book "The Art of the Deal," which outlines his "maximum pressure" negotiation tactics [3][4]. - His political success in 2016 was attributed to his appeal to the "silent majority," particularly white working-class voters, by promising job creation and economic revival through protectionist measures [4][5]. Group 2: Trade Policies and Economic Impact - In 2024, the U.S. accounted for 39% of the global trade deficit, amounting to $1.15 trillion, a 34% increase since 2017, highlighting the significance of trade relations under Trump's policies [5]. - Trump's use of tariffs as a diplomatic tool has raised concerns about inflation risks, particularly for lower-income households who are more sensitive to price increases [12][13]. Group 3: Political Strategy and Alliances - Trump's approach often involves leveraging allies for financial and political gain, as seen in his past statements about making allies pay their fair share [6][9]. - His relationships with influential figures like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos illustrate the potential volatility of alliances, especially when personal interests are at stake [9][10]. Group 4: Flexibility and Response to Challenges - Trump's ability to adapt his strategies in response to economic pressures, such as adjusting tariff policies to mitigate market impacts, showcases his focus on personal and political interests [10][11]. - The article suggests that if Trump's political interests are threatened by economic fallout from tariffs, he is likely to modify his approach to maintain support [11][12].

既聪明又粗糙，既容易犯错也容易改错。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛、赵宏鹤 生于1946年的特朗普，人生大部分时间都处在Pax Americana治下。敏锐的嗅觉让特朗普看到了美国 的深层次问题，强大的表演力帮他两度走上总统宝座，极限施压和同盟操戈的做派让他在第一任期尝到 过甜头。 一、嗅觉敏锐，表演力强 作为商人，特朗普勉强算是成功的。22岁毕业于沃顿商学院，随后在父亲的房地产公司"特朗普管理公 司"就职，25岁从五个兄弟姐妹中脱颖而出，被父亲任命为公司总裁。虽然几度濒临破产，到80年代 逐步成为房地产大亨。 让特朗普从成功商人成为家喻户晓人物的，是他在1987年发表的书籍《交易的艺术》（The Art of the Deal），该书曾连续32周位居《纽约时报》畅销书排行榜榜首。 正是这本书描述了特朗普标志性 的"极限施压"策略：激化矛盾、极限施压，将局势推向灾难边缘，试图在最后一刻达成交易。 特朗普的极限施压之所以可行，不在于威胁本身，而是敏锐的嗅觉和强大的表演力让他时常能发现和利 用对手的弱点。 这种特质帮助特朗普在2016年第一次登上总统宝座。 作为政治素人，特朗普精准的找到了美国"沉默 的大多数"，这些白人蓝 ...