美国国会近年来持续推动多项涉台法案，其中一项试图将里根时代对台承诺转化为法律形式，强调持续军售、避免在两岸主权上调解，以及不施压台湾地区 与北京谈判。 这种立法动向表面上获得两党支持，但实际通过率极低，从2017年至2023年提出的124项相关议案中，仅有5项最终落实，这暴露了美国内部政策执行的虚弱 性。 在特朗普第二任期内，对台策略进一步调整，从经济施压入手，2025年7月实施20%对等关税，并在原有基础上叠加额外税率，形成复合征收模式，直接针 对台湾地区半导体、纺织、石化等关键产业。 台湾地区对美出口占比近三成，这种关税机制导致成本大幅上升，削弱其经济竞争力。 美国商务部同时推动股权介入，如收购英特尔股份，并计划扩展至台积电等企业，旨在掌控供应链，这反映出美国将台湾地区视为战略工具而非伙伴。 军事层面，美国对台承诺始终模糊，2025年批准11.1亿美元军售，涵盖导弹系统升级，但规模未达预期，且五角大楼对台湾地区参与北方打击演习保持低 调，从2021年起秘密进行，至2025年8月公开涉及500名军人，却未深化合作。 这种犹豫源于美国评估自身介入风险，中国军力迭代加速，2025年12月正义使命军演覆盖台湾地区 ...

极地问题同样如此。北极航道的意义不仅仅是缩短运输距离，更重要的是重塑全球物流格局。中国在这一方向采取了合作与建设并行的策略，注重破冰能力 的提升、科研投入和基础设施的规划，形成了一整套系统。反观美国，在极地事务上的现实能力，与其雄心勃勃的战略目标并不匹配。美国的装备数量有 限，更新节奏较慢，整体投入也长期不足。 美国战略圈最近发出了一个不太寻常的信号。在讨论中国时，焦点明显发生了变化，不再过多纠结于关税、芯片、贸易逆差等老问题，而是开始着眼于更长 远的未来。一些重量级的声音已经公开承认，真正决定胜负的地方，根本不在眼前的市场竞争，而是在未来几十年的规则制定和空间掌控上。 最近，美国权威杂志《外交事务》刊登了一篇重要评论，作者是伊丽莎白·伊科诺米（Elizabeth Economy）。她的文章题为《中国如何赢得未来》，文章指 出，长时间以来，美国对中国的讨论陷入了误区。舆论场上充斥着关税清单、技术限制和企业制裁，看似热闹，实际上这些只算是表面的摩擦。美国的战略 界现在给出的判断更加直白：中美博弈的真正核心已经转向了五个新兴领域：深海、极地、太空、网络空间和金融体系。这些领域有一个共同点：短期内看 不到什么明显的 ...

F 第一财经主持 粤凯硕 两说 Business Insights 新加坡驻联合国前大使马凯硕以跨越东西方的独特视角，向我们揭示了一个正在剧变的世界图景： 亚洲世纪即将到来，西方主导的旧秩序正被多元文明共生的新格局所取代。在这场深度对话中，他不仅 剖析了中美战略博弈的本质——一方谋划长远，一方困于短视，更预言了亚洲世纪的真正内涵：这不是 单一国家的崛起，而是整个文明板块的复兴。当人类首次共同置身于"地球方舟"之上，我们能否超越零 和博弈，学会在竞争中共存？这不仅关乎大国角力，更考验着整个人类文明的智慧。一场关于未来世界 秩序的深刻思考，即将展开。 更多精彩内容，敬请关注12月10日周三晚22:30 东方卫视 《两说》节目， 第一财经 12月13日周六晚22:00 播出。 Business Insights 12\10 22:30 12\13 22:00 东方卫视首播 第一财经播出 新加坡驻联合国前大使 《中国的选择》《亚洲的21世纪》作者 ...

现在的中国外汇储备家底相当厚实，11月末达到33464亿美元，连续四个月站稳3.3万亿美元，创下近十年新高。一边是持续增持黄金，一边是悄悄减少美债 持有，中国正在用实际行动重构外储"安全垫"。更关键的是，中国还推出了黄金税收新政，让黄金从普通商品变成重要金融工具，再加上"上海金"定价机 制，慢慢争夺全球黄金定价权，这都是在为人民币国际化打基础。 中国的动作已经引发连锁反应，菲律宾、巴西等国也跟着增持黄金，越来越多国家意识到美元体系靠不住，黄金的战略价值正在回归。与此同时，人民币在 国际市场上越来越吃香，大宗商品人民币结算比例不断提升，周边国家发行的人民币债券同比增长四倍，连柬埔寨都把黄金存到中国金库。这说明中国不是 靠强制推销，而是用稳定和规则赢得了信任，这正是美国霸权最缺的东西。 最近国际舞台上的大戏接连上演，一边是特朗普放出2026年4月访华的风声，外界纷纷猜测他想拉中国帮忙稳住美债；另一边中国央行12月7日突然晒出黄金 储备成绩单，截至11月末已连续13个月增持，总量达到7412万盎司。这看似不相关的两件事，实则是中美战略博弈的最新注脚，而美国维持多年的霸权地 位，正在这场无声的较量中悄然松动。 要读懂 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the misjudgments made by the U.S. regarding China's economic rise and the dynamics of U.S.-China relations, particularly in trade and technology sectors [1][4][12] Trade Relations - The U.S. initially believed that China's heavy reliance on exports to the U.S. would make it vulnerable to economic pressure, but this strategy backfired as China diversified its export markets towards emerging economies [3][6] - The U.S. trade war, initiated in 2018, aimed to force China into concessions but instead led to increased costs and inflation in the U.S., affecting households and small businesses [6][10] Technological Competition - In the high-tech and renewable energy sectors, the U.S. underestimated China's capabilities, which have significantly advanced in areas like solar energy, electric vehicles, and energy storage [10][11] - The U.S. imposed strict export controls on semiconductors in 2022, but China responded by increasing R&D investments and narrowing the technology gap, particularly in advanced chip manufacturing [11] Global Economic Dynamics - The U.S. has maintained a dominant position in global financial and industrial rules, but this is increasingly challenged by a shifting global power landscape [12][14] - The U.S. attempts to relocate supply chains to politically aligned countries have not been successful, while China has strengthened its global supply chain position through partnerships with Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa [12][14] Strategic Misjudgments - The U.S. has relied on traditional strategies and tools, underestimating China's strategic vision and systemic capabilities, which has led to a series of miscalculations in its approach to China [14]

Group 1 - The recent trade talks between the U.S. Treasury Secretary and Chinese representatives in Madrid did not yield the expected results, leaving the U.S. in a passive position [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce added 23 Chinese entities to its entity list, attempting to increase pressure on China through sanctions, but China responded swiftly with an antitrust investigation against Nvidia [3] - The U.S. is pressuring the EU to impose tariffs on China and India, reflecting its anxiety and inability to effectively compel China to make concessions [3] Group 2 - The EU faces a dilemma, as many European countries rely on the Chinese market, and imposing tariffs could lead to significant costs for large enterprises [5] - If the EU cooperates with the U.S. on tariffs, it could trigger a disaster affecting the entire supply chain, given the intertwined trade relations between China and the EU [5] - China has demonstrated resilience and strength, achieving breakthroughs in various high-tech fields and enhancing its domestic market and cooperation with ASEAN countries [5] Group 3 - The economic dispute between the U.S. and China has evolved into a deeper strategic contest, with the U.S. relying on its hegemony to exert pressure, while China focuses on self-innovation and overcoming key technological challenges [7] - The future of U.S.-China economic relations and the overall global economic situation remains uncertain, with the U.S. potentially facing increasing isolation if it does not adjust its strategy [7] - China needs to seize opportunities to strengthen its technological barriers and market competitiveness in a complex international environment [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing strategic competition between China and the U.S., emphasizing that any potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will not immediately lead to a direct financial confrontation between the two nations [1] - It highlights that both countries are likely to engage in strategic maneuvers in other areas before any financial conflict arises, as evidenced by recent communications between their defense ministers [1] - China's actions in the South China Sea are interpreted as a demonstration of its commitment to its core interests, while the U.S. is expected to pursue diplomatic channels before escalating tensions with China over Venezuela [1] Group 2 - Russia's decision to sell advanced aircraft engine technology to China signifies a new level of military technology cooperation between the two nations [4] - Additionally, Russia has reduced the price of natural gas exports to China to 30% lower than European spot market prices, indicating significant strategic implications for energy cooperation [4] - NATO's unexpected stance on Russian drone incursions into Poland, which downplays the threat, suggests a nuanced shift in geopolitical dynamics [4] Group 3 - The article posits that the most suitable stage for strategic competition between China and the U.S. is the vast area bordering Russia and Europe, where both can showcase their strategic capabilities [7] - It suggests that only after demonstrating their strengths in this arena will China and the U.S. be able to engage in a final financial showdown, with outcomes dependent on their economic power and financial acumen [7]

Core Insights - U.S. soybean farmers are experiencing "order anxiety" as they face a significant drop in orders from China, which traditionally accounts for a substantial portion of U.S. soybean exports [1][3] - The U.S. agricultural sector, contributing $9.5 trillion to the economy and employing millions, is facing challenges as Chinese buyers turn to cheaper South American soybeans, leading to a record import volume from Brazil [3][4] - The U.S. soybean prices have plummeted by 40%, while production costs continue to rise, resulting in financial losses for farmers [3][5] Industry Summary - The U.S. soybean industry is under pressure due to a lack of Chinese orders, which previously accounted for 8-9% of orders during this period [1][3] - South American soybeans are favored due to lower prices and no tariffs, with U.S. tariffs reaching 34%, making American soybeans less competitive [3][4] - The U.S. government's attempts to negotiate new agreements and provide tariff protections have not been effective, as China has built up strategic reserves of 45 million tons of soybeans, sufficient for two years [3][5] Strategic Implications - The trade conflict between the U.S. and China is reshaping global supply chains, with countries diversifying their sources to mitigate risks [4][5] - If the U.S. continues its "threat diplomacy" approach without engaging in equal dialogue, the agricultural sector may face further decline [5] - The situation highlights the importance of cooperation over unilateral actions, as reliance on tariffs may ultimately harm U.S. agricultural interests [5]

Group 1: International Currency Status - The international status of the Renminbi (RMB) is under scrutiny, with its share in global foreign exchange reserves at only 4.7%, compared to the US dollar's 57% [1][3] - The dominance of the US dollar is attributed to decades of established international settlement currency status, which has created a currency exchange system that favors the dollar [1][3] - Changing the current situation requires a long-term strategic game with the US, potentially taking ten to twenty years or more, and necessitates the US gradually relinquishing its power [3] Group 2: Cross-Strait Relations and Political Dynamics - Tensions in US-China relations are escalating, with the US sending mixed signals regarding support for Taiwan's ruling party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) [5] - The DPP's attempt to eliminate the Kuomintang (KMT) through a large-scale purge has failed, indicating that the KMT remains a significant political force [7] - The existence of the KMT is seen as necessary for balancing internal power dynamics, especially in the context of ongoing US-China tensions, as a one-party dominance by the DPP could destabilize cross-strait relations [9]

Core Viewpoint - The planned sale of 43 ports, including the Panama Canal, by Li Ka-shing's CK Hutchison Holdings to BlackRock faced unexpected intervention from the Chinese government, highlighting the strategic importance of this transaction in the context of US-China relations [1][3]. Group 1: Transaction Dynamics - The transaction was initially set to be a straightforward acquisition but evolved into a significant geopolitical issue due to its implications for national interests [3][9]. - The Panama Canal is crucial for global trade, handling about 6% of maritime trade annually, with nearly 20% of China's foreign trade relying on this route [3][9]. - The Chinese government intervened, mandating that COSCO must participate in the deal, or it would be rejected outright [3][5]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - Following the intervention, CK Hutchison announced three key changes: the end of exclusive negotiations with BlackRock, an invitation for Chinese investors to participate, and the necessity for regulatory approval [3][5]. - COSCO is expected to acquire 30%-35% of the shares and hold veto power over critical operational matters [5]. Group 3: Implications for Li Ka-shing - This situation represents a significant turning point for Li Ka-shing, who must now navigate the balance between commercial interests and national priorities [7][11]. - The incident reflects a broader challenge faced by many multinational Chinese businesses, as they encounter political resistance in major transactions [7][11]. Group 4: US-China Relations - The transaction illustrates a new phase in US-China relations, where capital operations are used to control key infrastructure, while China employs market rules and regulatory power to counteract this [9][11]. - The potential for joint management of strategic ports by US and Chinese companies may emerge, mitigating risks of complete US control and preventing transaction failure [9]. Group 5: Lessons for Entrepreneurs - The event serves as a reminder for entrepreneurs that as business scales, it inevitably intersects with national interests [11]. - Successful entrepreneurs must find a balance between commercial value and social responsibility, recognizing the importance of national interests in their decision-making processes [11].