证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 05 月 19 日 社零数据点评 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | 占比% | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 133 | 2.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 1172.3 | 1.4 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 1076.2 | 1.4 | 行业指数 | % | 1m | 6m | 12m | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 4.1 | 28.9 | 27.5 | | 相对表现 | 10.2 | 31.3 | 21.5 | 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 相关报告 1、《商贸社服行业周报—京东外卖 上线百亿补贴，京东盒马等企业助力 出口转内销》2025-04-14 4 月社零同比+5.1%，国补品类保持增速领先 消费品/商业 2025 年 4 月社会消费品零售总额为 37174 亿元，当月同比+5.1%；实物商品网 上零售额当月为 9317 亿元，当月同比+6.1%。4 月社零及电商大盘维持相对稳 健增长，国补品类增速保持领先。当前内需有望发力，若刺激消费政策出台消 费互联网龙头将显著受 ...

大陆消费月报： 社会零售维持较快增长 群益上海 顾向君 2025.5.19 0 一、宏观消费运行概述 ➢社会消费品零售总额：5月零售保持较快增长 ➢出行情况：出行热情持续高涨 二、消费行业运行概述 ➢票房：五一票房惨淡，市场观望后续行情 ➢CPI：食品价格反弹冲销燃油价格下跌影响 ➢生产资料价格走势：生产资料价格低迷，关税影响消除 ➢期间板块涨跌情况：板块偏强运行 ➢行业观点：五月假日效应及电商大促共振，零售增速有望保持高位 1 社零保持较快增长 图1：社会消费品零售总额单月变动 单位：亿元，% 图2：零售分项单月同比变动 单位：% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 5,000 15,000 25,000 35,000 45,000 55,000 65,000 75,000 85,000 95,000 2024 年1-2月 2024 年3月 2024 年 4 月 2024 年5月 2024 年6月 2024 年7月 2024 年8月 2024 年9月 2024 年10 月 2024 年11 月 2024 年12 月 2025 年1-2月 2025 年3月 2025 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 19 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | 金融对实体经济支持的力度仍然较大—— 2025 年 4 月社融数据点评 2025-05-17 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本 ...

大陆消费月报： 社会零售维持较快增长 群益上海 顾向君 2025.5.19 0 一、宏观消费运行概述 ➢社会消费品零售总额：5月零售保持较快增长 ➢出行情况：出行热情持续高涨 二、消费行业运行概述 ➢票房：五一票房惨淡，市场观望后续行情 ➢CPI：食品价格反弹冲销燃油价格下跌影响 ➢生产资料价格走势：生产资料价格低迷，关税影响消除 ➢期间板块涨跌情况：板块偏强运行 ➢行业观点：五月假日效应及电商大促共振，零售增速有望保持高位 1 社零保持较快增长 图1：社会消费品零售总额单月变动 单位：亿元，% 图2：零售分项单月同比变动 单位：% 资料来源：国家统计局，群益金鼎证券 资料来源：国家统计局，群益金鼎证券 ➢ 一如我们此前判断，尽管4月假日经济效应较弱，得益于补贴政策支撑，社会零售增 速仍保持较快的增长：4月消费品零售总额约3.7万亿，同比增5.1%（3月 yoy+5.9%）。其中，商品零售实现收入约3.3万亿，同比增5.1%（3月yoy+5.9%）， 餐饮销售额4167亿，同比增5.2%（3月yoy+5.6%）；网上零售1.1万亿，同比增 1.4%（3月yoy+16.7%），网上零售占比为30.1%，环比3月 ...

Economic Overview - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% and a month-on-month growth of 0.24% [2][3] - The total import and export value of goods in April was 38,391 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [6][7] Retail Sector Performance - Retail sales excluding automobiles amounted to 33,548 billion yuan in April, growing by 5.6% year-on-year [3] - The growth rate of service consumption, such as catering, outpaced that of goods retail, with catering revenue reaching 4,167 billion yuan, a growth of 5.2% [3][4] - Online retail sales for the first four months totaled 47,419 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [3] Import and Export Dynamics - Exports in April were 22,645 billion yuan, increasing by 9.3%, while imports were 15,745 billion yuan, growing by 0.8% [6] - From January to April, the total import and export value was 141,389 billion yuan, with exports growing by 7.5% and imports declining by 4.2% [7] - Trade with ASEAN and Belt and Road countries accelerated, with imports and exports to ASEAN growing by 9.2% year-on-year [7] Consumer Goods Performance - The retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment saw significant year-on-year growth rates of 38.8%, 33.5%, 26.9%, and 19.9% respectively [4]

| 指 标 | 4月 绝对量 | | 1—4月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 同比增长（%） | 绝对量 | 同比增长（%） | | | （亿元） | | （亿元） | | | 社会消费品零售总额 | 37174 | 5.1 | 161845 | 4.7 | | 其中：除汽车以外的消费品零售额 | 33548 | 5.6 | 147005 | 5.2 | | 其中：限额以上单位消费品零售额 | 14992 | 6.3 | 64082 | 5.9 | | 其中：实物商品网上零售额 | - | - | 39265 | 5.8 | | 按经营地分 | | | | | | 城镇 | 32376 | 5.2 | 140433 | 4.7 | | 乡村 | 4798 | 4.7 | 21412 | 4.8 | | 按消费类型分 | | | | | | 餐饮收入 | 4167 | 5.2 | 18194 | 4.8 | | 其中：限额以上单位餐饮收入 | 1230 | 3.7 | 5197 | 4.4 | | 商品零售额 | 33007 | 5.1 | 143651 | ...

Retail Performance Overview - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [5] - From January to April, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 161,845 billion yuan, growing by 4.7% year-on-year [5] Urban and Rural Consumption - In April, urban retail sales were 32,376 billion yuan, increasing by 5.2% year-on-year, while rural retail sales were 4,798 billion yuan, up by 4.7% [2] - For the first four months, urban retail sales totaled 140,433 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.7%, and rural retail sales reached 21,412 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% [2] Retail Categories - In April, the retail sales of goods were 33,007 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, and catering revenue was 4,167 billion yuan, growing by 5.2% [5] - From January to April, the retail sales of goods totaled 143,651 billion yuan, increasing by 4.7%, while catering revenue reached 18,194 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% [5] Online Retail Performance - From January to April, online retail sales reached 47,419 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.7% [4] - Among online retail, the sales of physical goods were 39,265 billion yuan, growing by 5.8%, accounting for 24.3% of total retail sales [4] Retail Formats - For the first four months, retail sales in convenience stores, specialty stores, supermarkets, department stores, and brand specialty stores grew by 9.1%, 6.4%, 5.2%, 1.7%, and 1.4% respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial added value and retail sales data for April in China are set to be released shortly, indicating potential economic trends and consumer behavior insights for the country [1] Group 1 - The announcement of the industrial added value and retail sales figures suggests a focus on economic performance indicators that are crucial for assessing the health of the Chinese economy [1] - The timing of the data release indicates an immediate interest from analysts and investors in understanding the current economic landscape in China [1]

工业增速或高位放缓 参与第一财经首席调研的经济学家对4月工业增加值同比增速预测均值为5.62%，低于上月7.7%的公布 数据。 从先行指标来看，4月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点，在连续2个 月运行在扩张区间后落入50%以下。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群分析认为，4月份PMI出现回落，且回到荣枯线之下，表明经 济底部回升态势仍有不稳定性。新订单指数、新出口订单指数出现明显回落，表明外部环境复杂变化引 起的需求收缩倾向有所显现，必须高度重视。 华泰证券首席宏观经济学家易峘预计，4月工业增加值将同比增长6.5%左右。高频数据显示，4月高 炉、焦化开工率同比提高2.7个、15.1个百分点，但水泥开工率同比下行0.2个百分点。此外，关税影响 下，当月出口亦有所放缓。 本周中美经贸会谈取得阶段性重大成果，随着外部冲击减缓，以及稳增长、促消费政策发力，政策效应 进一步释放，国内有效需求不足状况有望改善。 二季度以来，外部环境更趋复杂严峻，中国经济表现如何，备受市场关注。国家统计局将于5月19日发 布4月宏观经济数据。机构预计，对等关税对中国经济的影响将逐渐显现。 面对外部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Research indicates that since Trump's second term began, the imposition of tariffs has exceeded market expectations in both pace and rates, leading to significant adjustments in macroeconomic forecasts [1][2]. Group 1: Export Growth - The annual export growth forecast has been lowered to 0% due to high tariffs, although some products exported to the U.S. may still show resilience. Approximately 26.5% of products exported to the U.S. have a price advantage under current tariff levels, and 31.3% of products have a dependency of over 50% on China [2]. Group 2: Retail Sales Growth - The annual growth rate for social retail sales has been increased to 4.6%. This adjustment is driven by a series of consumption-promoting policies aimed at countering the risks of declining external demand, including trade-in programs and expanded inbound consumption [2]. Group 3: PPI Forecast - The annual Producer Price Index (PPI) forecast has been lowered. The U.S. tariff policy casts a shadow over global economic growth, affecting international commodity prices. Additionally, industrial products with high dependency on U.S. exports may face downward price pressure [2]. Group 4: Economic Resilience - Despite the uncertainties surrounding tariffs, the advantages of a large domestic market and a well-established industrial chain are expected to effectively mitigate the risks associated with declining external demand, showcasing the resilience of the economy throughout the year [1][2].