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独家访谈|麦肯锡全球资深董事合伙人叶海:“韧性增长”取代“高速增长”,未来十年企业要做对三件事
麦肯锡· 2026-01-20 02:01
过去20年,中国企业的增长几乎是被时代速度推着往前走:人口红利、城乡扩张、消费升级、渠道变 革……商业世界像一辆装着强力引擎的列车,企业只要不断往前跑,增长就像是"顺带发生"的事。但当 下的中国市场,正在经历一次不那么喧闹、却足够深刻的结构性变化:增速放缓、价格竞争加剧、消费 者更谨慎、成本结构重塑。越来越多企业意识到——曾经自动提供增长的外部红利正在退潮,新的成长 方式必须建立在组织重塑、能力提升与领导心态迭代之上。 麦肯锡全球资深董事合伙人叶海在近来一次访谈中,用一个词概括这个时代:韧性增长时代。他谈到对 未来商业竞争的判断:企业到底需要怎样的组织、怎样的创新体系、怎样的品牌能力、怎样的战略落地 方式,才能真正实现穿越周期的持续增长。未来十年中国企业增长不靠风口,靠三件事:效率底座 × 敏捷迭代 × 小单元试错,组织形态上对应的是:大系统 + 小尖刀。 1问:在咨询行业深耕多年,您如何看待中国市场增长逻辑的变化? 叶海 :要讲变化,先理清什么没有变。中国企业增长的底层逻辑过去20年并没有变: 第一,以消费者为中心:满足需求、发掘需求,甚至塑造需求,仍然是企业应该关注的核心。 第二,企业要有内部能力:能针对 ...
腾讯研究院AI速递 20260120
腾讯研究院· 2026-01-19 16:03
Group 1 - Tesla has announced that the design of its AI5 chip is nearing completion, with the AI6 chip in early stages, aiming to shorten the chip design cycle to 9 months and predicting it will become the highest production AI chip globally [1] - The AI5 chip will utilize Samsung's 2nm and TSMC's 3nm processes, boasting overall performance 50 times that of AI4 and memory capacity 9 times greater, with mass production expected in 2027 [1] - Tesla signed a $16.5 billion agreement with Samsung for the production of the AI6 chip in the U.S., anticipated to launch in 2028 [1] Group 2 - Anthropic has upgraded Claude Cowork with a "permanent memory" feature, allowing the AI to categorize and store information, enhancing user understanding over time [2] - The upgrade includes an MCP connector system to improve automation, voice mode development, and a new UI area for continuous management of results [2] - Continuous learning is viewed as a key breakthrough for AGI, with OpenAI and Google also investing in memory functionalities [2] Group 3 - Kunlun Wanwei has launched Skywork Design Agent, focusing on poster design, social media materials, logo branding, and general creative image generation [3] - The product features a self-developed canvas engine that supports manual editing, AI photo retouching, and layer separation, streamlining the entire process from material import to export [3] - It offers multiple export formats (PNG, JPG, PDF) and includes a unique "add to knowledge base" feature to address material management issues, now fully launched overseas [3] Group 4 - Douzi 2.0 has introduced the Coze Skill feature, allowing users to encapsulate personal methodologies and industry experiences into reusable "skill packages" [4] - A new "long-term plan" feature enables goal-oriented AI collaboration, breaking down vague objectives into clear steps for automatic execution [4] - The launch of a skill marketplace facilitates the exchange of industry skill packages, allowing professionals to monetize their expertise, alongside the beta release of video Agent Skill [4] Group 5 - Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group" has introduced an "AI large model challenge" mode, integrating large model technology into game combat, marking a significant application in a high DAU game [5] - AI characters are driven by large models in real-time, capable of voice interaction and mimicking human behavior, with over 25 million AI matches recorded in the first week [5] Group 6 - Anker and Feishu have collaborated to create a 10-gram AI recording device, addressing the portability issues of traditional AI recording cards [7] - The device features real-time summarization capabilities, generating structured logical maps during meetings and supporting real-time translation in 24 languages [7] - Recordings are directly streamed to the Feishu knowledge base, integrating with the entire Feishu ecosystem to reduce the burden of knowledge base construction [7] Group 7 - Roboto has open-sourced its bipedal humanoid robot prototype, achieving a running speed of 3 m/s, making it one of the most advanced open-source humanoid robots globally [8] - The open-source content includes hardware schematics, EBOM material lists, supplier information, and control algorithm code, enabling reproducibility and verification [8] - The team, originating from Harbin Institute of Technology, has secured millions in seed funding and aims to reduce the cost of embodied intelligence development by 80% [8] Group 8 - Galaxy General has launched the Galbot S1, a heavy-duty robot capable of carrying loads up to 50 kg, currently operating in key production processes at CATL [9] - It features an industry-first fully autonomous, zero-remote operation "embodied handling model," utilizing pure visual perception without QR code markers [9] - Galaxy General has recently completed a 2.1 billion yuan financing round, with a valuation exceeding 20 billion yuan, and has established partnerships with leading manufacturers [9] Group 9 - OpenAI's product manager reported that since the release of ChatGPT-5, the Codex platform has seen a 20-fold growth, processing trillions of characters weekly [10] - The Sora Android app achieved a rapid development cycle, going from zero to launch in 28 days and topping the App Store, significantly improving team efficiency [10] - The manager noted that human typing speed and multitasking capabilities are often the limiting factors for AGI, rather than the models themselves [10]
国泰海通|GEO· 合集
国泰海通证券研究· 2026-01-19 14:03
Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of GEO (Generative Engine Optimization) as a new marketing paradigm driven by the explosion of large model technologies, with the global GEO market surpassing $10 billion and the domestic market nearing 3 billion yuan [2][17]. Group 1: GEO Market Overview - The GEO market is expected to continue its upward trajectory as large model traffic grows, with a projected market size of 29 billion yuan in China by 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 215% [6][17]. - Over 78% of enterprise decision-makers prioritize AI search optimization as part of their digital transformation strategies [6][17]. - By 2026, traditional search engine traffic is predicted to decline by 25%, with AI chatbots and other virtual optimization methods capturing more market share [6][17]. Group 2: Marketing Transformation - The shift in marketing strategies is anticipated as brands adapt to the new GEO paradigm, particularly benefiting e-commerce operators who can quickly establish GEO content generation capabilities [7][10]. - GEO focuses on optimizing content for AI models to enhance visibility and recommendation, contrasting with traditional SEO, which emphasizes keyword ranking [5][16][22]. - The marketing landscape is evolving, with AI-generated recommendations becoming a critical factor in consumer decision-making, leading to a more efficient marketing process [10][12]. Group 3: Business Implications - Companies that can leverage AI platforms and provide SaaS solutions are expected to thrive in the new GEO landscape, with a significant market opportunity projected to exceed $100 billion globally by 2030 [12][24]. - The transition from traditional marketing models to a subscription-based SaaS and performance-based revenue model is anticipated, improving profit margins in the industry [24]. - The article identifies five types of companies likely to benefit from the GEO transformation, including AI platform companies, SaaS providers, marketing firms, e-commerce operators, and brands that adapt quickly to the new marketing dynamics [12][22].
“一周干完一年活”!Claude Code让工程师集体“上瘾”:写代码、操控电脑、整理文件夹 背后却埋安全暗雷
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2026-01-19 09:15
Core Insights - Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.5 and Claude Code are experiencing unprecedented demand from developers and corporate executives, likened to a historic moment in generative AI [1] - The launch of Cowork, a "digital colleague" tool, aims to disrupt traditional collaboration models, expanding beyond programming into various work scenarios [1][7] - Anthropic is pursuing a new funding round of at least $25 billion, targeting a valuation of $350 billion, despite facing significant risks related to its products [1][19] Product Performance - Claude Code, the flagship product, is designed to assist in building autonomous AI agents with minimal human intervention, showing significant performance improvements over previous versions [2] - Performance benchmarks indicate that Claude Opus 4.5 outperforms its predecessors in various coding tasks, achieving an 80.9% verification rate on SWE-bench [3][4] User Adoption and Impact - Users report dramatic productivity increases, with one CTO completing a year-long project in just one week using Claude Code, leading to a phenomenon termed "Claude-pilled" [5][6] - The tool's influence is extending beyond technical users to non-technical professionals, enabling them to perform complex tasks previously requiring specialized skills [5][6] Market Reaction - The success of Claude Code has triggered a "disruptive panic" in the software industry, leading to significant declines in software stock prices, with a 15% drop in SaaS stocks since the beginning of the year [14] - Many startups are feeling the pressure, with some projects reportedly evaporating due to the competitive threat posed by Claude Code [16] Funding and Valuation - Anthropic is in discussions for a funding round that could raise over $25 billion, with commitments from major investors like Microsoft and Nvidia, potentially doubling its valuation to $350 billion [19] - The company is also preparing for an initial public offering (IPO), which could occur as early as this year [19] Security Concerns - The introduction of Cowork has raised concerns about operational risks, including a reported incident where the tool irreversibly deleted 11GB of user files due to a misunderstanding of user intent [12] - There are ongoing concerns about "prompt injection" risks, where external content could mislead the AI, prompting the need for robust security measures [13]
中国开源AI模型崛起,占全球份额15%
3 6 Ke· 2026-01-19 03:41
Core Insights - Chinese companies' generative AI is projected to capture approximately 15% of the global market share by November 2025, a significant increase from 1% a year prior [2][3] - The rise of open-source models like DeepSeek and Qwen (千问) is notable, with 40% of Chinese AI models being utilized for advanced tasks such as programming and design [3][5] - Japan's reliance on Chinese open-source models for AI development poses risks, as changes in model rules could abruptly affect development and usage [5][6] Group 1 - The global market share of Chinese generative AI is expected to reach 15% by November 2025, up from 1% a year earlier [2] - The average market share of Chinese open-source AI from November 2024 to November 2025 is projected at 13%, a significant rise from 1.2% at the end of 2024 [2] - In some weeks, the market share of Chinese open-source AI has reportedly reached as high as 30% [2] Group 2 - DeepSeek's model "R1," released in January 2025, has gained attention for its high performance at a low cost [3] - DeepSeek ranks 9th among 92 models in the AI model scoring published by NIKKEI Digital Governance, making it the top open-source model, surpassing Google's and OpenAI's models [5] - Six out of the top ten models developed by Japanese companies are based on DeepSeek and Qwen [5] Group 3 - Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has included support policies in the 2026 budget to develop domestic open-source models, aiming for a scale of 1 trillion yen over five years [5] - The ability to integrate various data types, such as images and voice, is essential for Japanese AI to compete with Chinese and American models [6] - The increasing performance requirements for AI in business settings highlight the growing challenges faced by Japanese developers [6]
中国儒意战略投资爱诗科技,携手开拓“AI+内容”产业新未来
Jin Rong Jie· 2026-01-19 03:04
近日,港股上市公司中国儒意宣布与全球AI视频领军企业爱诗科技达成战略合作伙伴关系。此次AI技术与影游产业的深度绑定,旨在依托爱诗科技全球领 先的AI视频技术,赋能中国儒意影视、流媒体、游戏三大核心业务板块升级,抢占"AI+内容"赛道新机遇。同时,中国儒意宣布以1420万美元对爱诗科技进 行战略投资。 随着生成式AI技术从基础建设阶段步入深度应用期,内容行业正迎来降本增效与体验革新的双重变革。以全球流媒体巨头奈飞(Netflix)为例,其在新剧 《永航员》中首次采用生成式人工智能(GenAI)打造视觉特效,该特效将制作速度提升10倍,成本降幅高达90%。这一案例标志着AI已深度融入好莱坞核 心制作流程,正式开启影视特效领域的新纪元。在国内市场,AI技术同样驱动着内容形态的快速演进。其中,AI漫剧的崛起正加速动画产业扩张,根据艾 媒咨询数据,2025年中国动画微短剧市场规模达189.8亿元,同比激增276.3%,预计至2030年市场规模将突破850亿元。 根据合作协议,双方将围绕三大方向展开深度协同,构建"技术+产业"的双向赋能体系。在战略层面,爱诗科技核心团队将为中国儒意提供AI技术落地战略 顾问服务,结合实战 ...
中国开源AI模型崛起,占全球份额15%
日经中文网· 2026-01-19 03:03
本调查由AI工具平台美国OpenRouter和美国风险投资公司a16z汇总。衡量以中美为中心的AI 模型的输入输出量,算出了AI利用的份额。 DeepSeek和Qwen(千问)等中国的开源模型开始普及 中国企业开发的生成式AI在2025年11月的全球市场份额约为15%,与1年前的1%相比大幅 增长。据称中国企业的AI模型的4成被用于编程和设计等高级业务。日本企业开发AI时也在用 中国的开源模型…… 中国企业开发的生成式AI的利用正在扩大。以2025年1月备受瞩目的DeepSeek为首,向外部 公开技术的开源模型崛起。中国企业开发的生成式AI在2025年11月的全球市场份额约为 15%,与1年前的1%相比大幅增长。作为日本AI开发基础的存在感也将提高。另一方面,日 本对中国生成式AI过度依赖的风险也浮出水面。 日本企业开发AI时也在使用中国的开源模型。 在AI模型评分中,在日本企业开发的前10个模型中,包括新兴的ABEJA的模型在内,有6个 是以DeepSeek 和Qwen为基础开发的。日本国立情报学研究所(NII)的日本国产AI开发项 目"LLM-jp"也把Qwen用于整理学习数据。 日本开发AI时依赖海外开 ...
摩根士丹利-新年-仍是同样的AI叙事
摩根· 2026-01-19 02:29
摩根士丹利:新年,仍是同样的 AI 叙事?20260117 有些过度,因为现有的软件工具并不会被它完全取代。规划工具和协作工具可 能面临一些风险,但像 PowerPoint 这样的工具仍会是云协作的重要组成部分。 此外,这项技术的发展速度非常快,仅用一周半时间就开发出了 Coworkers 功能,这种快速迭代能力是传统企业应对挑战时需要关注的重要因素。 市场如何看待微软与 Anthropic 在 AI 领域的发展? 摘要 AI 发展迅速,Anthropic 的 Claude Co-Work 展示了通用智能体处理 信息工作的能力,标志着从提示词驱动向任务指令模式转变,但现有软 件工具不会被完全取代,规划和协作工具面临风险,PowerPoint 等云 协作工具仍重要。 CIO 调查显示,生成式 AI 仍是首要任务,但 IT 预算增长预期未显著变 化,硬件、通信和 IT 服务支出预计减速,软件业务预计保持增长但增幅 不大,市场对生成式 AI 的热情未能直接推动企业 IT 预算增长。 Snowflake 在 CIO 调研中表现突出,2026 年增长加速预期最高,与微 软持平,领先于 ServiceNow、SAP 和 ...
咖啡机变聪明后,我连咖啡都喝不上了
3 6 Ke· 2026-01-19 00:17
这真是一个让人当场破防的早晨。 一位 The Verge 的科技记者起床、走进厨房、对着支持 Alexa 的博世咖啡机说了句,煮杯咖啡。 目前还没有人真正解决这个问题:如何让 LLM 知道什么时候该精确、什么时候可以随机。 没有即兴发挥,也没提什么复杂要求,她只是希望机器老老实实执行一个早就设好的程序,结果,被拒绝了。 而且不是一次。 自从升级到 Alexa Plus(亚马逊的生成式 AI 语音助手)之后,这种对话几乎成了她的晨间固定项目。 每一次要它煮咖啡,Alexa 都能给出不同理由,以惊人的创造力告诉你,不行。 2025 年都快过去了,AI 会写论文、会写代码、会陪人聊天、会教书,却在清晨败给了一句「煮杯咖啡」。 在社区讨论中,类似吐槽场面非常壮观,可谓怨声载道。 开灯这个事儿,完全成了重灾区。 播放歌曲也是艰难。 定个时也这么难了啊。 彻底心灰意冷的也有。 显然,现实与大家对 AI 的直觉预期,构成了鲜明反差。 传统助手虽然笨吧,但高度确定,只要你把(有点傻的)「咒语」念对,结果总是可以预期的。 现在好了,以 LLM 为核心的生成式AI助手,智商是高了,理解是深了,表达是丰富了,却偏偏在它们原本最擅长 ...
吉宏股份(2603.HK)事件点评:依托GEO等技术 持续深耕小语种市场
Ge Long Hui· 2026-01-18 20:12
GEO(Generative Engine Optimization,生成式引擎优化)是适配生成式AI 信息检索范式的新型优化技 术,核心目标是通过系统性手段提升如品牌、产品、内容在AI 生成式搜索结果中的可见性、准确性及 权威性。 企业营销转向GEO 或将成为必然趋势。据Gartner 预测,至2026 年传统搜索引擎的搜索量将下降 25%; 至2028年,传统搜索引擎流量预计将下降 50%。用户正从"搜索-点击链接"转向通过豆包、DeepSeek、 Kimi 等AI 平台以对话获取答案。直接驱动企业营销预算从传统SEO 向GEO 的结构性倾斜。据AdAge 数据,2025 年国内65%的中大型企业已将GEO 纳入年度核心营销预算,较2024 年增长28pct。 技术升级与市场拓展双管齐下。依托GEO 等AI 技术,公司构建了场景、痛点、解决方案三位一体的结 构化商品语料库,结合社交媒体热点词语动态更新,可实现30 分钟内自动完成标题与脚本迭代。其 中,多模态GEO 技术能够同步生成文本、口播视频、图文卡片等多元化内容,全面覆盖网站搜索与推 荐核心入口,大幅提升营销效率。未来公司将重点打造GEO 技术矩阵与 ...