Core Viewpoint - The provincial government of Liaoning has effectively executed its budget for the first half of 2025, aligning with central and provincial directives, while facing challenges in revenue stability and structural issues [1][2] Group 1: Budget Execution Overview - The provincial government and financial departments have adhered to the central government's policies, focusing on comprehensive revitalization and implementing a more proactive fiscal policy [1] - The overall budget execution for the first half of 2025 is deemed satisfactory, providing strong support for achieving key strategic tasks and ensuring basic livelihood financing [1] Group 2: Challenges Identified - There are notable difficulties in the budget execution, including unstable revenue growth and a need for improvement in revenue structure [1] - The financial balance at the grassroots level is under pressure, indicating a tightening situation [1] Group 3: Recommendations for Improvement - Implement a more proactive fiscal policy to enhance financial support for major strategic tasks and stimulate effective investment [2] - Optimize the fiscal revenue structure by stabilizing industrial tax sources and improving non-tax revenue management [2] - Strengthen the management of special bonds throughout their lifecycle to ensure proper usage and enhance efficiency [2] - Focus on preventing and mitigating fiscal risks while adhering to priority principles for basic financial guarantees [2] - Enforce strict financial discipline and enhance the financial supervision system to ensure the safe and regulated use of fiscal funds [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Increase allocation of 2 - 3 - year AA - grade strong - qualification urban investment bonds, and 3 - 5Y perpetual bonds have riding opportunities [1][9] - The credit bond market this week shows the characteristics of "short - end adjustment and long - end pressure", and it is recommended to focus on medium - and short - duration coupons, pay attention to the regional differentiation of urban investment bonds and the liquidity premium opportunities of secondary and perpetual bonds, and be vigilant against the phased disturbance of the bond market by the recovery of the equity market [9] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Policy Dynamics and Market Hotspots - Starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will resume the collection of value - added tax, while existing bonds remain tax - free. This adjustment aims to enhance the benchmark function of the treasury bond yield curve in the medium and long term and support fiscal sustainability [4] - On July 30, 2025, the Politburo meeting emphasized implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds [5] Credit Bond Market Conditions Primary Issuance - From July 28 to August 1, the issuance and net financing scale of general credit bonds decreased month - on - month. The issuance scale of industrial bonds accounted for a relatively high proportion. The issuance amount of general credit bonds was 178.7 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 172.2 billion yuan; the net financing was 54.4 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 73.6 billion yuan [6] - The weighted issuance term of general credit bonds this week was 4.11 years, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09 years; the weighted issuance interest rate was 1.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.19 pct [6] Secondary Trading - The turnover rate of general credit bonds decreased month - on - month, with significant declines in the turnover rates of general credit bonds with maturities of less than 1 year and 5 - 7 years [6] - The turnover rate of bank secondary and perpetual bonds decreased compared with last week. The turnover rates of AAA - and AA + grades decreased significantly, while the turnover rate of AA grade increased [6] Spread Tracking - As of August 1, the average yields of medium - and short - term notes, urban investment bonds, secondary capital bonds, and perpetual bonds with AAA ratings at various maturities were at historically low levels [7] - For urban investment bonds, the spreads of all ratings for the 1 - year term narrowed, those for the 3 - year term widened, and for the 5 - year term, except for a slight narrowing of 1.71BP for the AA variety, others widened. The spreads of the AA - grade for the 3Y and 5Y terms widened the most, by 5 - 6BP [7] - The spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds at all terms and grades narrowed this week. The 3Y, AAA - variety narrowed the most, by 4.28BP; the 1Y, AA - and AA varieties narrowed the least, by 1.98bp; the average narrowing amplitude of the spreads of the 5Y varieties was the largest, by 3.19BP [7] - In terms of regions, the spreads of urban investment bonds in 14 provinces widened slightly this week, with Liaoning and Qinghai having the largest widening amplitudes of 7 - 8BP [7] - For industrial bonds, the spreads of most industries widened slightly this week. The spread of AA + - grade industrial bonds in the construction and decoration industry widened the most, by 4.8bp [8]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance is conducting the first re-issuance of the 2025 ultra-long special government bonds, with a total face value of 35 billion yuan and a fixed interest rate of 2.10% [1] - In July, three issues of ultra-long special government bonds were completed, totaling 206 billion yuan, making it the second-largest monthly issuance this year [1] - The overall issuance plan for ultra-long special government bonds this year is 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from last year, with 796 billion yuan issued by August 1, achieving 61% of the target [1] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated a total of 800 billion yuan for "two major" construction projects this year, with 735 billion yuan of central budget investment already distributed [2] - The accelerated issuance of ultra-long special government bonds is expected to support economic development by boosting infrastructure investment and enhancing consumer demand [2][3] - The issuance of ultra-long special government bonds is seen as a catalyst for long-term growth, acting as both a stabilizer for economic performance and a promoter of structural upgrades in consumption [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report outlines the financial results and budget execution for Liaoning Province in 2024, highlighting a balanced budget with total revenues and expenditures both amounting to 5031.3 billion yuan, while also addressing areas for improvement in fiscal management and policy implementation [1][2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - The general public budget revenue for the province was 106.8 billion yuan, achieving 98.1% of the budget target, with total revenue reaching 5031.3 billion yuan when including other income sources [1]. - The general public budget expenditure was 1697.8 billion yuan, completing 98.6% of the budget, with total expenditures also at 5031.3 billion yuan [1]. - The government fund budget revenue was 16.5 billion yuan, exceeding the budget by 10.8%, with total revenue of 1350 billion yuan [2]. - The social insurance fund budget revenue was 3413.3 billion yuan, completing 96.7% of the budget, while expenditures were 3467.2 billion yuan, achieving 97.2% of the budget [2]. Debt Management - The total government debt balance for the province at the end of 2024 was 14019.5 billion yuan, within the limits set by the State Council, with the provincial debt balance at 932.3 billion yuan [2]. Recommendations for Improvement - The Finance and Economic Committee identified issues such as insufficient revenue growth, the need for better expenditure management, and the necessity for enhanced performance management of fiscal funds [4]. - Suggestions include implementing more proactive fiscal policies, advancing tax system reforms, and improving budget management practices [5][6][7]. Performance Management - Emphasis on integrating performance management throughout the budget process to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal spending [8]. - Recommendations for establishing a robust performance evaluation mechanism to ensure efficient use of limited fiscal resources [8]. Risk Management - The report stresses the importance of preventing and mitigating risks in key areas, particularly in maintaining fiscal security and managing hidden debts [9]. - It calls for a comprehensive monitoring system for local debt and the management of state-owned assets to prevent financial risks [9]. Audit and Supervision - The need for strengthened audit and financial supervision is highlighted to ensure compliance and accountability in fiscal management [11]. - Recommendations include rigorous oversight of major projects and policies to ensure effective implementation and financial discipline [11].

1. Market Index Performance - **Global Stock Indexes**: On July 31, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index closed at 44,461.28, down 0.385% from the previous day; the Nasdaq Index closed at 21,129.67, up 0.149%; the S&P 500 closed at 6,362.90, down 0.125%; the Hang Seng Index closed at 25,176.93, down 1.362% [2]. - **SHIBOR and Dollar Index**: The SHIBOR overnight rate was 1.32, down 3.587% from the previous day; the dollar index was 99.79, down 0.179%. The dollar - to - RMB (CFETS) exchange rate remained unchanged [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: COMEX gold rose 0.078% to 3,327.90; COMEX silver fell 3.152% to 37.18; LME copper fell 0.745% to 9,730.00; NYMEX crude oil rose 1.516% to 70.30. Domestic metals, chemicals, and agricultural products also showed various price changes [2][3][5]. 2. Macro - economic News - **Policy Decisions**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October to discuss the 15th Five - Year Plan. The government will implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, support key areas, and resolve local government debt risks [8]. - **Subsidy Policy**: The state plans to allocate about 90 billion yuan for childcare subsidies in 2025, and localities will open application channels by August 31 [8]. - **Industry Policies**: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association will control new capacity in copper smelting and alumina, and promote the exit of backward capacity in some sectors [10]. 3. Morning Views on Major Commodities 3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is expected to have a bullish and volatile short - term trend but will maintain a downward long - term trend, with a current pattern of weak supply and demand [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats market has light trading volume and stable basis. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to increase, and Malaysia's palm oil exports are also rising [12]. - **Sugar**: The sugar market is in an internal - strong and external - weak situation. With the arrival of processed sugar in August, the spot market may face pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Corn**: The corn market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to operate within the range of 2,300 - 2,320 yuan/ton [12]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are both weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, with attention to the 13,350 - yuan support level [13]. - **Hogs**: The hog market is in a state of oversupply. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [13]. - **Eggs**: After this round of price adjustment, the egg spot price is expected to be supported by Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. The futures market is adjusting the basis by following the spot price decline [14]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong is expected to fluctuate slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [16]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is stable. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to operate within the range of 1,720 - 1,800 yuan/ton [16][18]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Copper prices may face pressure if the 50% tariff is imposed. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [18]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals of alumina are in a surplus situation. The futures price may be strong, but it is necessary to be vigilant about macro - sentiment [18]. - **Steel Products**: The spot market for steel products has weak trading volume. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be supported at certain levels [18]. - **Ferroalloys**: Ferroalloys are currently driven by macro - expectations. It is recommended to operate cautiously [18][19]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke markets are fluctuating and under pressure. The fifth round of coke price increase has started, but steel mills have not responded [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see and short on rallies [19]. 3.4 Options and Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: On July 30, A - share indexes showed mixed performance. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures and options changed, and the implied volatility of some options decreased. Trend investors can focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can buy straddles [19][21].

上证报中国证券网讯（记者 李苑）7月30日召开的中央政治局会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加 力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应。加快政府债券发行使 用，提高资金使用效率。兜牢基层"三保"底线。 "适时加力方面，我们判断下半年视实际情况需要，宏观政策有可能在稳增长方向出台新的重大增量措 施。"王青分析，这包括实施更有力度的降息，财政政策"三箭齐发"——上调财政赤字率、增加超长期 特别国债发行、提高新增专项债额度等。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，这意味着尽管上半年经济运行稳中偏强，但下半年宏观政策仍将保 持稳增长取向，其中财政政策基调依然是"更加积极"。 ...

中经实习记者 孙汝祥 记者 夏欣 北京报道 7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议。会议指出，要增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市 场回稳向好势头。 会议指出，要坚定不移深化改革。坚持以科技创新引领新质生产力发展，加快培育具有国际竞争力的新 兴支柱产业，推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合发展。纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，推动市场竞争秩 序持续优化。依法依规治理企业无序竞争。推进重点行业产能治理。规范地方招商引资行为。坚持"两 个毫不动摇"，激发各类经营主体活力。 会议强调，要扩大高水平对外开放，稳住外贸外资基本盘。帮助受冲击较大的外贸企业，强化融资支 持，促进内外贸一体化发展。优化出口退税政策，高水平建设自贸试验区等开放平台。 会议指出，要持续防范化解重点领域风险。落实好中央城市工作会议精神，高质量开展城市更新。积极 稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务，有力有序有效推进地方融资平台出清。增强国内资本 市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好势头。 （编辑：夏欣 审核：何莎莎 校对：张国刚） 会议指出，做好下半年经济工作，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和 适度宽松的货币政 ...

中共中央政治局：要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应。 ...

同时，财政部深入落实2024年一次性增加6万亿元债务限额政策，截至今年6月底，已累计发行新增置换 债券3.8万亿元。各地置换后债务平均利息成本降低超过2.5个百分点，还本付息压力大幅减轻，财政空 间得到释放，腾出更多资金用于发展所需、民生所盼。 财政部部长蓝佛安日前在《学习时报》发表的署名文章《以优良作风凝心聚力为经济持续向新向好贡献 财政力量》提到，用好用足更加积极的财政政策，加大财政逆周期调节力度。 具体举措包括：加快发行和使用超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债券，尽早形成实物工作量。发挥财政 资金引导和带动效应，推动各项政策效能不断释放。落实好助企帮扶各项财税政策，有效改善经济微观 循环。统筹运用专项资金、税收优惠、政府采购和政府投资基金等政策工具，支持传统产业改造提升、 新兴产业发展壮大和未来产业前瞻布局。指导督促地方做好隐性债务置换工作，积极稳妥化解地方政府 债务风险。 财政部数据显示，上半年全国一般公共预算支出14.1万亿元，保持较大强度，重点领域支出得到有力保 障。新增地方政府债券额度4月底已全部下达地方。截至6月底，中央对地方转移支付已下达9.29万亿 元，中央预算内投资下达超过90%，2025年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of strengthening the Party's work style to contribute to the sustained improvement of the economy, highlighting the need for a proactive fiscal policy and effective implementation of various measures to support economic growth and stability [2][7][16]. Group 1: Party's Work Style and Governance - The article discusses the significance of enhancing the Party's work style as a response to increasing risks and challenges, with a focus on the implementation of the Central Eight Regulations [2][3]. - It outlines the establishment of a "tower-like" responsibility system to ensure accountability in work style construction, emphasizing the need for strict adherence to Party discipline and responsibilities [4][5]. - The article stresses the importance of continuous learning and self-examination to identify and rectify issues within the Party's work style [5][6]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Economic Support - The article highlights the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy since 2025, aimed at stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations, with significant budget allocations [7][8]. - It mentions the issuance of special bonds and the allocation of funds to support consumption and investment, which are crucial for economic recovery [9][10]. - The article notes that the central government's budget for education and social security has seen substantial increases, reflecting a commitment to improving public welfare [11]. Group 3: Modernization and Structural Reform - The article emphasizes the need for a modernized fiscal system that aligns with China's modernization goals, including tax reforms and improved budget management [12][18]. - It discusses the importance of addressing local government debt risks while promoting high-quality development, indicating a balanced approach to fiscal management [13][14]. - The article also highlights the role of fiscal policy in enhancing domestic demand and supporting various sectors, including real estate and social services [16][17].