观点总结 重点关注 周一国债现券收益率集体走弱，到期收益率1-7Y上行0.60-4.50bp左右，10Y、30Y到期收益 率上行2.30、3.50bp左右至1.86%、2.26%。周一国债期货走弱，TS、TF、T、TL主力合约分 别下跌0.07%、0.18%、0.28%、0.91%。资金面临跨年压力，DR007加权利率回升至1.59% 左右。国内基本面端，11月全国规上工企业利润同比持续回落，但高技术制造业等新兴行业利 润保持较快增长，工业结构持续优化。11月工增、社零边际放缓，固投持续负增长，失业率保 持平稳。11月金融数据出现结构分化，直接融资提振下，社融增量超预期；信贷持续走弱，居 民贷款为主要拖累，企业中长期投资需求依然偏弱。受基数效应影响，M1、M2增速回落， M1-M2剪刀差再度走阔。消息面上，全国财政工作会议指出，2026年继续实施更加积极的财 政政策，扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度。海外方面，美国消费支出强劲推动第三季度 实际GDP年化环比大幅增长4.3%，同期核心PCE物价指数上涨2.9%。美国总统发言表示希望 下一任美联储主席在经济和市场情况良好时继续降息，市场对未来利率下行预期升温。 ...

爬升，三元电池贡献小幅需求增量。国内镍库存小幅下降，市场逢回调采买增加，现货升水高位；海外LM 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 E库存延续增长。技术面，成交放量持仓高位，多空分歧增大。观点参考：预计短线沪镍宽幅调整，关注M A5支撑，上方13关口阻力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-12-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 125710 | -10 ...

不锈钢产业日报 2025-12-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12910 | -45 02-03月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -75 | 0 -7950 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -15276 | -121 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 84501 | | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 47462 | -426 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13550 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9100 | 0 | | | 基差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 290 | 60 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.21 | -0.08 | | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合金(月,吨) | 12840.49 | 2900.8 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustment and break below the MA10 support [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 334,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,960 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai tin is down 720 yuan with a 590 - yuan decrease in the ring - comparison [3] - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 42,490 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 345 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 50,161 lots, a decrease of 2,115 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is 62 lots, an increase of 2,415 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 4,895 tons, an increase of 220 tons [3] - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange for tin is 8,477 tons (weekly), and the warehouse receipt of Shanghai Futures Exchange for tin is 7,905 tons (daily), a decrease of 64 tons [3] - The cancelled warehouse receipt of LME tin is 190 tons, an increase of 75 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 343,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,750 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 344,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,000 yuan [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is - 3,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 670 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 130 US dollars/ton, an increase of 65 US dollars [3] 上游情况 - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons (monthly), an increase of 0.29 million tons [3] - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 331,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,750 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 335,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,750 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 产业情况 - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3] 下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 219,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,520 yuan [3] - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 139.01 million tons (monthly), an increase of 14.47 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 22.26 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons [3] 行业消息 - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, expand fiscal expenditure, and support the replacement of consumer goods with old ones [3] - In November, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, with a slight increase in the first 11 months, and the profit growth rate of high - tech manufacturing accelerated. The decline in industrial production and profit margins is the main reason for the narrowing of the profit growth rate [3] 观点总结 - On the macro - level, the Ministry of Finance will continue the proactive fiscal policy in 2026 [3] - On the fundamental level, the domestic supply of imported tin ore is still tight, and the processing fee of tin ore remains low. Although Myanmar's resumption of production and the end of the rainy season provide some supply increments, the overall import volume of tin ore is still low. The raw materials of tin ore are in short supply, and the production of refined tin is expected to be restricted. Indonesia's export volume increased in November, but the domestic import of tin is in a loss state, and the import volume is expected to remain low. The market's willingness to purchase tin has improved, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the LME inventory has increased significantly [3] - On the technical level, the trading volume has increased, showing an upper - shadow negative line, with increased divergence between bulls and bears, and facing key resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [3]

会议指出，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。一是扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度。二是优化政府债券工具 组合，更好发挥债券效益。三是提高转移支付资金效能，增强地方自主可用财力。四是持续优化支出结构，强化重点领 域保障。五是加强财政金融协同，放大政策效能。 全国财政工作会议12月27日至28日在北京召开。财政部部长蓝佛安表示，明年财政将大力提振消费。深入实施提振消费 专项行动，继续安排资金支持消费品以旧换新，调整优化补贴范围和标准。 ...

新华财经北京12月29日电（王菁）债市周一（12月29日）显著走弱，机构提前交易积极财政之下的供给 压力预期，国债期货全线收跌，银行间现券收益率普遍上行2-3BPs；公开市场单日净投放4150亿元，跨 年时点将至，短端资金利率多数延续上行。 欧元区市场方面，截至上周末仍在圣诞假期。 机构认为，周末财政会议消息再度释放积极财政信号，市场抛压再起，债市近期波动多来自资金面和年 初配置预期，股债联动并不明显。由于流动性宽松略高于预期，上周短端收益率一度下探，不过本周后 续两日预计震荡格局难改，方向性机会需政策或供给端进一步确认。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.91%报111.82，10年期主力合约跌0.28%报107.975，5年期 主力合约跌0.18%报105.84，2年期主力合约跌0.07%报102.476。 银行间主要利率债收益率普遍上行，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率上行3.65BPs报2.255%，10 年期国开债"25国开15"收益率上行3BPs报1.9365%，10年期国债"25附息国债16"收益率上行2.45BPs报 1.86%。 中证转债指数收盘下跌0.43 ...

股指关注阻力位，债市或 震荡运行 2025-12-29 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 金融期货策略建议 目 录 01 重点数据跟踪 02 01 金融期货策略建议 01 股指策略建议 01 国债策略建议 资料来源：iFinD、长江期货 p 国债走势回顾：30年期主力合约涨0.36%报112.960元，10年期主力合约涨0.10%报108.300元，5年期 主力合约涨0.05%报106.050元，2年期主力合约涨0.03%报102.548元。 p 核心观点：当前债市缺乏显著的利好或利空因素，走势主要由机构行为主导。考虑到前几个交易日多数交易 盘已陆续平仓，年末最后几个交易日若无突发情况，市场或将维持平淡态势。预计本周及元旦后，市场焦点 预计将集中于央行国债买卖规模会否进一步扩大，以及年初货币政策的具体实施节奏。短期来看，若长短端 收益率均陷入横盘整理，需警惕收益率再度向上试探11月以来区间上沿的可能。 p 技术分析：MACD指标显示T主力合约或震荡偏强运行。 p 策略展 ...

2025年，我国保持支出强度，全年一般公共预算支出超过29万亿元。同时，顺利发行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元，更大力度支持"两重"项目， 加力扩围实施"两新"政策。 央视网消息：12月27日至28日，全国财政工作会议在北京召开。记者从会议上了解到，2025年，我国积极财政政策打出一系列"组合拳"，有力 有效支持经济向新向优发展。 新增地方政府专项债券4.4万亿元。盘活5000亿元债务结存限额，补充地方综合财力。发行5000亿元特别国债补充国有大型商业银行资本，有 力增强信贷投放能力。 值得一提的是，2025年，更加积极的财政政策在供需两端激发消费潜力，出台实施个人消费贷款和服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策。 此外，2025年，更加积极的财政政策精准发力支持高质量发展，大幅增加基础研究投入，组织开展新型技术改造城市试点、中小企业数字化转 型试点。 同时，持续加强民生保障，充实稳就业政策工具。逐步推进免费学前教育，提高国家奖学金、助学金标准，建立育儿补贴制度。数据显示，财 政在中国式现代化建设中的支撑和保障作用越来越强。 中央财经大学财税学院教授白彦锋介绍，"十四五"时期相比上一个五年，我们国家财政实力进一步增强。财政收 ...

| | 1、央行公告称，12月26日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了930亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量930亿 | | --- | --- | | | 元，中标量930亿元。Wind数据显示，当日562亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放368亿元。本周央行公开市场将 | | | 有6227亿元逆回购到期，其中本周一、本周二、本周三、本周日分别到期673亿元、593亿元、260亿元、4701亿元。 | | | 2、2026年全国两会召开时间确定。全国政协十四届四次会议将于2026年3月4日在北京召开，十四届全国人大四次会议 | | | 将于3月5日召开，审查"十五五"规划纲要草案列入2026年全国人代会建议议程。 3、全国财政工作会议在北京召开。会议指出，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策；扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支 | | | 出力度；优化政府债券工具组合，更好发挥债券效益。会议要求，2026年财政工作抓好六项重点任务，包括坚持内需 | | | 主导，大力提振消费，加大对新质生产力、人的全面发展等重点领域投入；加快培育壮大新动能，进一步增加财政科 | | | 技投入；进一步强化保基本、 ...

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,819, showing a year-to-date increase of 28.71% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.10% to 3,964, with a year-to-date increase of 18.26% [1] - The US Dow Jones Index decreased by 0.04% to 48,711, with a year-to-date increase of 14.49% [1] - The Nikkei 225 in Japan increased by 0.68% to 50,750, with a year-to-date increase of 27.21% [1] Sector Performance in Hong Kong - The Hang Seng Financial Index remained unchanged at 49,269, with a year-to-date increase of 40.22% [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index also remained unchanged at 17,887, with a year-to-date increase of 19.94% [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial Index stayed at 13,971, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 24.19% [2] Recent Market Trends - A-shares rose last Friday, led by non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, and steel, while electronics, light manufacturing, and communications lagged [3] - The USD/CNY exchange rate fell below 7.0, with expectations of further decline to 6.95 in the first half of next year [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Finance plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies in 2026 to support consumer spending [3] - The Bank of Japan's December meeting minutes indicated a need for gradual interest rate hikes to avoid falling behind inflation [3] US Market Insights - US stocks experienced low trading volume post-Christmas, with materials, information technology, and healthcare sectors rising, while consumer discretionary, energy, and financial sectors fell [3] - Gold and silver prices surged significantly, influenced by margin requirement adjustments for futures contracts [3] - Cryptocurrency markets saw a decline as US investors sold off to offset tax liabilities from stock gains [3]