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蓝佛安,最新发声!
券商中国· 2025-11-14 23:38
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy in supporting high-quality development and the construction of Chinese-style modernization, as outlined in the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session [1][4]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - Since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, fiscal policy has maintained a proactive stance, with the deficit ratio increasing from 2.7% to 3.8%, and further to 4% this year [2][3]. - The total new local government special bond quota is set at 19.4 trillion yuan, with over 10 trillion yuan allocated for tax reductions and refunds, expanding fiscal policy space [2][3]. - The total public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, marking a 24% increase compared to the previous five-year period [3]. Group 2: Strategic Focus for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The 15th Five-Year Plan period is crucial for achieving foundational progress in socialist modernization, with a focus on addressing complex domestic and international challenges [4][5]. - Fiscal policy will prioritize effective demand expansion, with a strong emphasis on boosting consumption and effective investment [6][7]. - The government aims to enhance the efficiency of fiscal resource allocation, particularly in key areas such as technology, education, social security, and ecological protection [5][6]. Group 3: Market Development and Economic Structure - The construction of a strong domestic market is identified as a strategic foundation for Chinese-style modernization, with fiscal measures aimed at balancing supply and demand [6][7]. - The government will support consumption through fiscal subsidies and policies that enhance residents' income, while also focusing on effective investment in strategic projects [6][7]. - A unified market will be promoted through improved fiscal and tax systems to eliminate local protectionism and enhance resource allocation efficiency [7]. Group 4: Fiscal Reform and Management - The establishment of a high-level socialist market economy requires a balance between market freedom and effective regulation, with fiscal policy playing a key role [8][9]. - The government will focus on optimizing resource allocation, enhancing fiscal management, and improving the efficiency of public spending [9][10]. - Emphasis will be placed on coordinating development and safety, particularly in managing government debt sustainably [10].
发挥积极财政政策作用 推动中国式现代化开创新局面(权威访谈·学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神) ——访财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-11-14 22:49
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of active fiscal policy as a foundation for national governance and economic development, particularly in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][4] - The Ministry of Finance has recognized the effectiveness of active fiscal policies in recent years, highlighting a 24% increase in general public budget expenditure, which is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][4] - Over 70% of national fiscal expenditure is directed towards people's livelihoods, with nearly 10 trillion yuan allocated for social welfare over the past five years [2][4] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance plans to enhance counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to address structural and deep-seated economic issues, thereby boosting long-term development potential [3][4] - The focus will be on both supply-side and demand-side management, utilizing tax policies and government procurement to support the modern industrial system and stimulate consumption [3][6] - The Ministry aims to innovate fiscal tools, such as long-term special government bonds and fiscal subsidies, to improve the effectiveness of fiscal policies [3][4] Group 3 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will prioritize expanding domestic demand, with strategies to boost consumption and effective investment, while also promoting a unified national market [6][7] - The Ministry of Finance will work on optimizing resource allocation and enhancing fiscal management, including zero-based budgeting reforms to improve fund utilization [9] - There will be a focus on balancing efficiency and equity in tax policies, as well as strengthening the fiscal relationship between central and local governments [9]
发挥积极财政政策作用 推动中国式现代化开创新局面(权威访谈·学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神)
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-11-14 22:03
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy in China's economic development, particularly during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" periods, highlighting the need for innovative reforms and effective macroeconomic management to support modernization and address complex domestic and international challenges [1][4]. Group 1: Achievements of Fiscal Policy - Since the beginning of the new era, China's fiscal policy has been adjusted in response to changing circumstances, leading to significant achievements in economic recovery and modernization efforts [2]. - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," total public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, a 24% increase compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan," with over 70% of fiscal spending directed towards people's livelihoods [2][4]. - The ability to respond to risks and challenges has strengthened, providing a more solid foundation for safe development [2]. Group 2: Key Strategies for the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The fiscal policy will focus on enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to address structural and deep-seated economic issues while promoting long-term development potential [3][4]. - Emphasis will be placed on the synergy between supply-side and demand-side management, utilizing tax policies and government procurement to support a modern industrial system and stimulate consumption [3][5]. - The government will innovate fiscal tools, such as ultra-long special bonds and fiscal subsidies, to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal policies and improve macroeconomic management [3][8]. Group 3: Expanding Domestic Demand - The construction of a strong domestic market is identified as a key task, with fiscal measures aimed at boosting consumption and effective investment [6][7]. - Strategies include enhancing consumer spending through subsidies and tax adjustments, as well as increasing effective investment in strategic projects to improve overall productivity [6][7]. Group 4: Fiscal Reform and Management - The focus will be on creating a high-level socialist market economy by ensuring that fiscal macro-control supports effective market mechanisms while allowing micro-entities to thrive [8][9]. - The government aims to optimize resource allocation, enhance fiscal management, and improve the efficiency of public spending through reforms such as zero-based budgeting [9]. - There will be a concerted effort to balance efficiency and equity in tax policies, ensuring a reasonable macro tax burden while promoting social fairness and market unity [9].
财政部:有力有效实施积极财政政策
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy in driving high-quality development and achieving Chinese-style modernization, as outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan proposed by the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China [1][2]. Fiscal Policy Implementation - The fiscal policy has maintained a proactive stance since the 14th Five-Year Plan, with adjustments made according to changing circumstances, including an increase in the deficit ratio from 2.7% to 3.8%, and further to 4% this year [1][2]. - New local government special bond quotas amounting to 19.4 trillion yuan have been arranged, alongside over 1 trillion yuan in new tax reductions and deferred payments, expanding fiscal policy space [1][2]. Achievements During the 14th Five-Year Plan - The total public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, a 24% increase compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan, with over 70% of fiscal spending directed towards people's livelihoods, totaling nearly 10 trillion yuan in social welfare investments [2][3]. - The ability to respond to risks and challenges has strengthened, providing a more solid foundation for safe development [2]. Strategic Focus for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The 15th Five-Year Plan is seen as a critical period for achieving socialist modernization, with a focus on adapting to complex domestic and international changes, including rising unilateralism and protectionism [3][4]. - The fiscal department aims to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal policies and macroeconomic regulation to better support high-quality development [3][4]. Key Areas of Fiscal Policy Action - The fiscal policy will focus on three main areas to support domestic market construction: boosting consumption, expanding effective investment, and promoting a unified market [5][6]. - Specific measures include using fiscal subsidies and tax adjustments to enhance consumer spending, optimizing government investment towards strategic projects, and improving the fiscal system to eliminate market fragmentation [5][6]. Fiscal Reform and Management - The establishment of a high-level socialist market economy requires a balance between market freedom and effective regulation, with fiscal funds directed towards public goods and areas with high social returns [6]. - The focus will be on optimizing resource allocation, enhancing tax systems, and ensuring a sustainable fiscal environment while promoting both development and safety [6].
财政部:把准形势任务 有力有效实施积极的财政政策
Xin Hua She· 2025-11-14 14:28
第二,发力要精准。紧紧围绕高质量发展重点领域和关键环节,优化财政资源配置,加大对现代化产业 体系、科技、教育、社会保障、农业农村、生态环保等方面的支持力度,把宝贵的财政资金花在刀刃 上、用出效益来,不断提升经济发展质量。 第一,力度要给足。坚持积极取向,加强逆周期和跨周期调节,根据形势变化,合理确定赤字率和举债 规模,组合运用预算、税收、政府债券、转移支付等工具,用好政策空间,保持支出强度,形成对经济 社会发展的持续支撑。 第三,政策要协同。坚持运用系统观念设计和谋划财政政策,加强与货币、产业、区域等政策配合,提 高政策制定和执行全过程的协同性,确保同向发力、同频共振,形成推动高质量发展合力。 "十五五"时期如何发挥积极财政政策作用?围绕建设强大国内市场、加快构建高水平社会主义市场经济 体制方面,财政将如何发力?新华社记者采访了财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安。 人民财讯11月14日电,财政事关治国安邦、强国富民,在推动高质量发展和中国式现代化建设中承担重 要职责。党的二十届四中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的 建议》,对发挥积极财政政策作用提出明确要求。 问:迈向"十五五",党 ...
贯彻落实党的二十届四中全会精神权威访谈丨发挥积极财政政策作用 为奋力开创中国式现代化建设新局面提供坚强财政保障——访财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安
Xin Hua She· 2025-11-14 12:18
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy in supporting China's modernization efforts and high-quality development, as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan and the recent 20th Central Committee meeting [1][3]. Fiscal Policy Implementation - Since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, fiscal policy has maintained a proactive stance, with the deficit ratio increasing from 2.7% to 4% this year, and the issuance of new local government special bonds amounting to 19.4 trillion yuan [2][3]. - The government has implemented over 10 trillion yuan in tax reductions and deferrals, enhancing fiscal policy space [2]. Achievements of the 14th Five-Year Plan - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, total public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, a 24% increase from the previous five-year period, with over 70% of fiscal spending directed towards people's livelihoods [3]. - The fiscal response to risks has strengthened, with nearly 100 trillion yuan allocated for social welfare over five years [3]. Strategic Focus for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The 15th Five-Year Plan is seen as a critical period for achieving socialist modernization, with a focus on enhancing fiscal policy effectiveness in response to complex domestic and international challenges [4][5]. - The government aims to maintain strong fiscal support, ensuring that spending intensity continues to support economic and social development [5]. Key Areas of Fiscal Policy Action - The government will focus on three main areas to strengthen the domestic market: boosting consumption through subsidies and income increases, expanding effective investment in strategic projects, and promoting a unified market through improved fiscal policies [6][7]. - Emphasis will be placed on optimizing resource allocation and enhancing the efficiency of fiscal management, including reforms in budget processes and tax systems [9][10].
发挥积极财政政策作用 为奋力开创中国式现代化建设新局面提供坚强财政保障——访财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安
智通财经网· 2025-11-14 12:11
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy in driving high-quality development and modernizing China's economy, as outlined in the 20th Central Committee's proposals for the 15th Five-Year Plan [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - Fiscal policy has maintained a proactive stance since the 14th Five-Year Plan, with the deficit rate increasing from 2.7% to 4% and the issuance of new local government special bonds amounting to 19.4 trillion yuan [1][2]. - The total public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, marking a 24% increase compared to the previous plan, with over 70% of fiscal spending directed towards people's livelihoods [2][3]. Group 2: Strategic Focus for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The 15th Five-Year Plan will focus on enhancing fiscal policy effectiveness in response to complex domestic and international challenges, including geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [3][4]. - Key strategies include ensuring sufficient fiscal strength, precise targeting of investments in high-quality development areas, and promoting policy coordination across various sectors [5][6]. Group 3: Domestic Market Development - The construction of a strong domestic market is identified as a strategic priority, with fiscal measures aimed at boosting consumption, increasing effective investment, and advancing the establishment of a unified market [6][7]. - Specific actions include leveraging fiscal subsidies and tax adjustments to enhance consumer spending and optimizing government investments to support strategic projects [6][7]. Group 4: Fiscal Reform and Management - The establishment of a high-level socialist market economy requires a balance between effective market mechanisms and appropriate fiscal regulation, focusing on public goods and minimizing direct government intervention [8][9]. - The emphasis will be on optimizing resource allocation, enhancing fiscal management, and ensuring a sustainable fiscal framework that aligns with high-quality development goals [9].
财政部部长蓝佛安:把准形势任务 有力有效实施积极的财政政策
Xin Hua She· 2025-11-14 11:59
新华社北京11月14日电 题:发挥积极财政政策作用为奋力开创中国式现代化建设新局面提供坚强财政 保障——访财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安 新华社记者申铖 财政事关治国安邦、强国富民,在推动高质量发展和中国式现代化建设中承担重要职责。党的二十届四 中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》,对发挥积极财 政政策作用提出明确要求。 "十五五"时期如何发挥积极财政政策作用?围绕建设强大国内市场、加快构建高水平社会主义市场经济 体制方面,财政将如何发力?新华社记者采访了财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安。 因时因势施策,不断深化对财政宏观调控的规律性认识 问:科学的宏观调控、有效的政府治理是发挥社会主义市场经济体制优势的内在要求。"十四五"以来, 我国在加强财政宏观调控、实施财政政策方面,进展和成效如何? 党的二十届四中全会擘画了中国未来五年的发展蓝图。我们要以改革的思维、创新的精神,完整准确全 面贯彻全会部署,统筹生财、聚财、用财之道,有力有效实施积极的财政政策,为以中国式现代化全面 推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业提供坚强财政保障。 把准形势任务,有力有效实施积极的财政政策 问:迈向"十五五",党 ...
展望“十五五”|专访财科院院长杨志勇:遏制地方政府新增隐性债务,债务信息要透明,尽可能降低利息成本
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-14 09:43
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for proactive fiscal policies to enhance fiscal sustainability during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, contrasting with the previous "14th Five-Year Plan" which focused on establishing a modern fiscal and tax system [2][19] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests strengthening central authority and increasing the proportion of central fiscal expenditure while enhancing local financial autonomy, especially in the context of declining reliance on land finance [3][4] - The central government's transfer payment budget has exceeded 10 trillion yuan for three consecutive years, indicating a significant effort to increase local financial autonomy [4][6] Group 2 - The article discusses the need for a long-term mechanism for government debt management that aligns with high-quality development, highlighting the establishment of a debt management department by the Ministry of Finance [6][7] - Transparency in local government debt information is crucial for effective debt management, and there is a need to enhance the proactive management of local government debt [7] - The article points out that the macro tax burden should be reasonable and aligned with fiscal expenditure, as the tax revenue to GDP ratio has been declining since 2017, which is not conducive to high-quality development [8][13] Group 3 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to deepen tax system reforms to ensure that tax obligations correspond with the tax capacity of micro entities, addressing discrepancies in tax burdens [8][13] - Zero-based budgeting reform is highlighted as a significant initiative to break the rigid expenditure patterns and improve the efficiency of fiscal resources [14][15] - The article notes that the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is critical for laying the foundation for achieving socialist modernization by 2035, requiring strategic actions to overcome challenges and enhance economic resilience [17][19]
宏观数据观察:东海观察10月经济增速继续放缓且低于预期
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 07:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In October, China's economic growth continued to slow down and was lower than expected. The overall domestic demand economic data in October continued to slow down, with the decline in investment continuing to widen and falling short of market expectations, the consumption growth rate continuing to decline but slightly higher than market expectations, and industrial production significantly slowing down in the short term. The short - term investment side continued to slow down. The real estate market continued to slow down and bottom out, infrastructure investment continued to slow down, and manufacturing investment also faced challenges. The short - term domestic commodity supply - demand side showed weak demand and relatively abundant supply. The released data was significantly lower than market expectations, which was short - term negative for the domestic demand - type commodity market. In the medium - to - long term, the "anti - involution" work entering the substantial promotion stage was positive for the recovery of the domestic market. Overseas, the prices of external demand - type commodities such as non - ferrous metals and energy oscillated, and the support for precious metals increased due to the resurgence of safe - haven demand [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Production - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises was 4.9%, with an expected 5.5% and a previous value of 6.5%, a significant decline from the previous value and far lower than market expectations. This was mainly due to holiday factors and the slowdown in external demand orders, which led to a slowdown in the increase of industrial enterprise operating rates. Among the three major categories, the added value of the mining industry increased by 4.5% year - on - year, the manufacturing industry by 4.9%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water by 5.4%. High - end manufacturing such as the automobile manufacturing, railway, ship, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing, and computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries still had relatively fast growth rates. In the fourth quarter, with the gradual weakening of the US replenishment demand, the overall growth rate of domestic industrial production might decline but was expected to remain at a relatively high level [3][4]. 3.2 Consumption - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 2.9%, with an expected 2.7% and a previous value of 3.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline from the previous value but slightly higher than market expectations. The slowdown was due to the withdrawal of the consumer goods trade - in policy, the high base of categories such as automobiles, and weak holiday consumption. The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods further slowed down under the influence of the trade - in policy withdrawal. The retail sales of consumer goods such as household appliances, furniture, automobiles, and communication equipment showed significant slowdowns, while service - related consumption growth accelerated with policy support. In the short term, the growth rate of commodity consumption was expected to continue to decline, but in the later stage, with the implementation of service consumption stimulus policies and the recovery of residents' wealth effect, domestic consumption would continue to recover [4]. 3.3 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to October, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7%, with an expected - 0.8% and a previous value of - 0.5%, and the decline widened by 1.2% and was far lower than expected. The decline rates of manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investment all further widened [3][4]. - **Real Estate**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 23.2%, with a 1.9 - percentage - point increase in the decline from the previous month. The year - on - year growth rates of the floor area of commercial housing sold and sales volume were - 19.6% and - 25.1% respectively, with significant increases in the decline rates from the previous values. This was mainly due to the high - base effect of the "9.24 real estate new policy" last year and the mild real estate stimulus policies this year. The real estate market continued to adjust and bottom out, with the transaction activity in the housing market decreasing, and the investment side remaining weak. The year - on - year growth rate of real estate development funds in October was - 21.4%, with a 10.4 - percentage - point increase in the decline. The floor area of newly started construction, construction, and completion of real estate all faced challenges [4]. - **Infrastructure**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was - 8.9%, with a 4.3 - percentage - point increase in the decline from the previous value. Considering the continuous decline after the end of the photovoltaic rush - to - install market and the constraints of local debt resolution on project reserves and funds for traditional infrastructure, the growth rate of infrastructure investment continued to decline [4][5]. - **Manufacturing**: The year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment in October was - 6.7%, with a 4.8 - percentage - point increase in the decline from the previous value. It continued to slow down due to the high - base effect last year and the decline in investment willingness caused by "anti - involution". High - tech industries maintained a high level of prosperity, but factors such as tariff uncertainty, the marginal decline in policy funds for large - scale equipment renewal and transformation, and the slowdown in US replenishment demand in the fourth quarter affected manufacturing investment. However, with the support of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments and the implementation of relevant policies, there might be some support for manufacturing investment in the future [4][5]. 3.4 Impact on Commodities - On the demand side, the short - term investment side continued to slow down, and domestic commodity demand as a whole slowed down and was lower than market expectations. On the supply side, industrial production slowed down due to factors such as the decline in foreign demand orders and the slowdown in the increase of industrial enterprise operating rates. The short - term domestic commodity supply - demand side showed weak demand and relatively abundant supply. The "anti - involution" policy had a certain supporting effect on the prices of domestic demand - type commodities. The released data was significantly lower than market expectations, which was short - term negative for the domestic demand - type commodity market. In the medium - to - long term, the "anti - involution" work entering the substantial promotion stage was positive for the recovery of the domestic market. Overseas, due to the overall easing of US trade policies, the impact on the economy weakened, but the short - term government shutdown affected the economy. The prices of external demand - type commodities such as non - ferrous metals and energy oscillated and showed significant differentiation, and the support for precious metals increased due to the resurgence of safe - haven demand [3][5].