Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Affected by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation continued. Global trade uncertainty increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillated between stable growth and loose expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a 0.80% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [9] - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan (+0.47%); M2 year - on - year was 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% (+6.25%); Manufacturing PMI was 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% (-1.60%) [10] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 97.96, with a day - on - day increase of 0.31 (+0.32%); The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.9390, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.004 (-0.06%); SHIBOR 7 days was 1.46, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.61%); DR007 was 1.48, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.64%); R007 was 1.68, with a day - on - day increase of 0.17 (+11.44%); The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.59, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (+0.00%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (+0.00%) [11] 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The content mainly includes figures about the closing price trend, price change, precipitation of funds, position ratio, net position ratio (top 20), and long - short position ratio (top 20) of treasury bond futures main continuous contracts, but specific numerical data is not described in detail in the text [13][14][16] 3. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - The content includes figures about the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trend, interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trend, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local bond issuance, but specific numerical data is not described in detail in the text [24][25][27] 4. Spread Overview - The content includes figures about the inter - period spread trend of various treasury bond futures, and the spread between the spot bond term spread and futures cross - variety spread (such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, etc.), but specific numerical data is not described in detail in the text [32][34][36] 5. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - The content includes figures about the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funds interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract, but specific numerical data is not described in detail in the text [43][45] 6. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - The content includes figures about the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funds interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract, but specific numerical data is not described in detail in the text [47][55] 7. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - The content includes figures about the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funds interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract, but specific numerical data is not described in detail in the text [54] 8. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - The content includes figures about the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funds interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract, but specific numerical data is not described in detail in the text [59][64] 9. Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Policy**: On December 8, the Political Bureau meeting proposed to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, sending a signal of loose money. The Central Economic Working Conference proposed that in 2026, continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and flexibly and efficiently use reserve - requirement ratio cuts, interest - rate cuts, and structural policy tools. Starting from January 19, 2026, the interest rates of a basket of re - loans and rediscounts were lowered by 0.25 percentage points, and there was still room for further reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts this year [1] - **Inflation**: In December, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year [1] - **Finance**: In 2025, the overall fiscal revenue and expenditure did not meet expectations. Revenue was dragged down by the weakening of tax revenue and the high base of non - tax revenue, and the annual general public budget revenue decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. The expenditure rhythm was advanced, the year - end intensity weakened, and the annual completion rate was low. In terms of structure, people's livelihood expenditures were generally stable, the proportion of infrastructure expenditures decreased, and land fiscal revenue continued to be weak. In 2026, fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, emphasizing "increased total amount, better structure", and the expenditure intensity is expected to increase, with the rhythm continuing to be advanced to support stable growth [2] - **Finance (Social Financing and Credit)**: In the first 12 months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 35.6 trillion yuan, 3.34 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of December, the M2 balance was 340.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%; the M1 balance was 115.51 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. At the end of December, the balance of RMB loans increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and the balance of deposits increased by 8.7% year - on - year. In terms of credit, there was an obvious divergence between residents' and enterprises' financing. The decrease in residents' loans reflected the weak endogenous demand, while enterprises' loans increased year - on - year, indicating that the effects of policy support were gradually emerging [2] - **Central Bank**: On February 5, 2026, the central bank carried out a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 118.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity bidding [2] - **Money Market**: The repurchase interest rates for the main terms of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.319%, 1.464%, 1.614%, and 1.551% respectively, and the repurchase interest rates had recently declined [2] - **Market**: On February 5, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.43 yuan, 105.91 yuan, 108.32 yuan, and 112.17 yuan respectively, and the price changes were 0.04%, 0.07%, 0.08%, and 0.38% respectively. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.022 yuan, - 0.051 yuan, 0.021 yuan, and 0.077 yuan respectively [3] 10. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: As the repurchase interest rate declined, the price of treasury bond futures oscillated [4] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the basis of 2603 [4] - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can moderately hedge with far - month contracts [4]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the importance of price regulation and reform in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan, aiming to stabilize prices and enhance the welfare of the population [1][2]. Group 1: Price Regulation and Reform - The NDRC and the State Administration for Market Regulation held a meeting to recognize advanced collectives and individuals in price work, highlighting the significance of effective price management for the upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan [1]. - The NDRC plans to strengthen price regulation, promote reasonable price movements, and ensure the supply and price stability of essential goods for the public [1][2]. Group 2: Policy Implementation - A more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy will be implemented, with a focus on promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration in monetary policy [2]. - Structural policies will include actions to boost consumption, increase urban and rural residents' income, and optimize the implementation of new policies to achieve better supply-demand balance [2]. Group 3: Market Regulation - The NDRC aims to address "involution" competition by establishing unified market regulations, standardizing behaviors of local governments and enterprises, and enhancing the market's survival of the fittest mechanism [2]. - Continuous efforts will be made to ensure the stable supply and pricing of essential goods, maintaining a comprehensive control over the production, supply, storage, and sales chain of these goods [2].

● 本报记者 欧阳剑环 总量政策方面，要实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，把促进物价合理回升作为货币政策 的重要考量，发挥存量政策和增量政策的集成效应，推动形成经济增长和物价回升的良性互动。结构政 策方面，要深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划，优化实施"两新"政策，扎实推 进"两重"建设，从而推动供需更加平衡匹配。要深入整治"内卷式"竞争，制定全国统一大市场建设条 例，规范地方政府和企业行为，强化市场优胜劣汰机制，畅通落后低效产能退出渠道。改革政策方面， 要进一步理顺价格关系，促进资源高效配置，确保安全稳定供应。与此同时，要持续做好重要民生商品 保供稳价，毫不松懈抓好重要民生商品产供储销全链条调控，确保量足价稳，夯实民生基本盘。 国家发展改革委2月5日消息，国家发展改革委、市场监管总局日前在京召开全国价格工作先进集体和先 进个人表彰会议。会议强调，2026年是"十五五"开局之年，做好价格工作意义重大。各级价格主管部门 要全面贯彻党的二十大和二十届历次全会精神，认真落实中央经济工作会议部署以及全国发展和改革工 作会议要求，立足宏观治理全局，准确把握价格工作面临的形势和任务，着力加强价格 ...

为了稳经济，中国首次在2025年实施更加积极财政政策，广义财政支出规模首次突破40万亿元。 根据财政部数据，2025年广义财政（全国一般公共预算和全国政府性基金预算）支出约为40.03万亿元，同比增长3.7%；广义财政收入约为27.38万 亿元，同比下降约2.9%；广义财政支出超过收入约12.65万亿元，同比增长21.3%。 粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒告诉第一财经，去年面对收入端多重压力，财政政策通过提高赤字率与扩大债务规模，实施超常规逆周期调节，保持必要 支出强度，有力发挥了宏观政策的支撑作用，推动全年经济平稳运行。 2026.02. 05 本文字数：2644，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 去年底全国财政工作会议提出，今年继续实施更加积极的财政政策，包括扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度等，以推动今年经济实现质的有效提升 和量的合理增长。 罗志恒认为，2026年财政政策预计在现有基础上进一步加力提效，通过提升赤字规模、优化支出结构、创新政策工具等，以更强的政策力度推动经济稳 中向好并切实改善民生。 财政支出为何能保持力度 去年广义财政支出规模创新高，支出增速与名义经济增速相近，折射了财政支 ...

财政部数据显示，2025年全国一般公共预算支出约28.74万亿元，同比增长1%。全国政府性基金支出约11.29万亿元，同比增长 11.3%。 2026年地方预计财政收入小幅增长。 为了稳经济，中国首次在2025年实施更加积极财政政策，广义财政支出规模首次突破40万亿元。 根据财政部数据，2025年广义财政（全国一般公共预算和全国政府性基金预算）支出约为40.03万亿元，同比增长3.7%；广义财 政收入约为27.38万亿元，同比下降约2.9%；广义财政支出超过收入约12.65万亿元，同比增长21.3%。 粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒告诉第一财经，去年面对收入端多重压力，财政政策通过提高赤字率与扩大债务规模，实施超常 规逆周期调节，保持必要支出强度，有力发挥了宏观政策的支撑作用，推动全年经济平稳运行。 去年底全国财政工作会议提出，今年继续实施更加积极的财政政策，包括扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度等，以推动今 年经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。 罗志恒认为，2026年财政政策预计在现有基础上进一步加力提效，通过提升赤字规模、优化支出结构、创新政策工具等，以更 强的政策力度推动经济稳中向好并切实改善民生。 财政 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term cautious and bullish rating on hot - rolled coils [6] Core Viewpoints - The hot - rolled coil futures market is oscillating weakly, with supply relatively stable and demand showing strong resilience despite a decline due to the approaching Spring Festival. The total inventory is at a high level mainly because of high - level social inventory, and there is still inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the resumption of manufacturing operations after the Spring Festival and the inventory depletion speed [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Price**: On Thursday, the open interest of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract increased by 11,934 lots, and the trading volume was 283,875 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3255 yuan, the high was 3278 yuan, and the market was oscillating weakly. In the short - term, it fell below the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving average lines, closing at 3263 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan or 0.40% [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was - 3 yuan [3] 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of February 5, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 0.05 million tons to 3.0916 million tons week - on - week and decreased by 11.03 million tons year - on - year. The current output is at a moderately high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintain a high production pace before the Spring Festival and production enthusiasm has increased [4] - **Demand**: As of February 5, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 5.87 million tons to 3.0554 million tons week - on - week and decreased by 8.11 million tons year - on - year. Affected by the Spring Festival shutdown, the demand of downstream manufacturing industries has declined, but it is still at a relatively high level in recent years and shows certain resilience [4] - **Inventory**: As of February 5, the total inventory increased by 3.62 million tons to 3.592 million tons week - on - week (social inventory increased by 2.12 million tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory increased by 1.5 million tons). The pressure is concentrated in social inventory, and the steel mill inventory is controllable, indicating inventory backlog in the distribution link and insufficient willingness of downstream buyers to purchase [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The central economic meeting in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, which is beneficial to prices and industry profits, and efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] 3. Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support (the 14th Five - Year Plan, infrastructure investment) [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6] 4. Short - term View Summary - The hot - rolled coil futures decreased in volume today. Short - term pressure is near the 30 - day moving average, and the lower support is the previous low. Adopt a cautious and bullish approach. Currently, the supply is relatively stable, and although the demand has declined mainly due to the approaching Spring Festival, it still shows strong resilience. The total inventory is at a high level mainly due to high social inventory pressure, and inventory pressure still exists. Attention should be paid to the resumption of manufacturing operations after the Spring Festival and the inventory depletion speed [6]

业内人士表示，地方债在年初便展现出的供给放量与招标向好情形，充分体现了积极财政政策靠前发 力、提质增效的明确导向，也反映出市场对我国经济发展前景和地方政府信用的坚定信心。债券募集资 金正加速流向重点项目与关键领域，进而有效发挥对实体经济的服务与拉动作用。 结构优化与成本回落并举 新华财经北京2月5日电 2026年伊始，我国地方政府债券发行实现"开门红"，展现出量质兼顾的积极态 势。据新华财经统计，1月份全国发行地方政府债券135只，募集资金8633.4968亿元，同比增54.84%， 发行节奏显著前置、结构持续优化，为全年经济平稳开局提供了有力的财政支撑。 "这种踊跃认购，确保了地方政府以较低成本顺利融资，是市场对我国经济基本盘和财政健康度投下的 信任票。"前述承销负责人指出，安全、稳健的地方政府债券已成为当前环境下重要的优质资产，其顺 利发行也有助于维护金融市场稳定。 另外值得关注的是，1月用于置换隐性债务的特殊再融资专项债发行3081.7235亿元，占专项债总额的 45.59%，是当月地方债发行的重要驱动力。东方金诚公用事业一部执行总监周丽君则指出，隐债置换 只能作为短期纾困手段，从长效机制看，地方化债方 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发表报告，维持H股内银业增持评级等，现时该券商覆盖的内银H股的平 均市净率约为0.54倍(基于2026年预期市净率)，仍处于过去10年该板块历史估值区间的下限，认为今年 投资者仍将更加关注内银H股板块，该板块估值较低，基本面稳健，2026年预期股息率约5.46%，相较 中国1年期及10年期国债的收益率分别为1.29%及1.81%，内地一年期人民币存款利率1.5%，香港一年期 港元定存息约为3%而言颇具吸引力。 展望2026年，鉴于政策制定者可能继续推行宽松的货币政策和积极的财政政策，长期投资者将继续密切 关注内银H股板块。该券商指，工商银行 (01398) 是在该板块中的首选，在于其估值在同业中相对较 低。该券商同时亦建议投资者买进农业银行 (01288) 、招商银行 (03968) 、建设银行 (00939) 、邮储银行 (01658) 及光大银行 (06818) 。 对于今年1月，内银H股表现跑输恒指同期升幅，中银国际指，原因是投资者热衷买进高贝塔系数(股价 波动幅度大于整体大市)的股票，展望未来，认为投资风格可能会更加平衡。 2026年，政策制定者可能 会继续推动宽松的货币政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent upgrades to loan interest subsidy policies aim to enhance consumer and business financing, thereby stimulating domestic demand and supporting the real economy through fiscal and financial collaboration [1][2][4]. Group 1: Consumer Loan Subsidy Policies - The upgraded consumer loan subsidy policies provide a 1% interest subsidy on personal consumption loans and loans for service industry operators, significantly benefiting consumers in large expenditure scenarios such as car purchases and home renovations [2][3]. - The inclusion of credit card installment payments in the subsidy scope has been well-received, allowing consumers to benefit from subsidies without needing to take out separate loans [3][4]. - The policies are designed to be more convenient and long-lasting, with automatic application of the latest subsidy terms to existing loan agreements [2][10]. Group 2: Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - A new loan interest subsidy policy for small and micro enterprises addresses the challenges of high financing costs, offering a subsidy of 1.5% on loans for up to two years, with a maximum loan amount of 50 million yuan [7][8]. - The policy targets key industries such as new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and medical equipment, aiming to reduce interest expenses significantly for businesses [7][9]. - The expansion of the equipment update loan subsidy policy includes more sectors and types of loans, further alleviating financial burdens on enterprises [8][9]. Group 3: Implementation and Efficiency - The policies are set to be effective until December 31, 2026, with potential for extension based on their effectiveness [10][12]. - Efforts are being made to streamline the application process for subsidies, aiming for a seamless experience where consumers automatically receive subsidies upon loan repayment [11][12]. - The focus is on ensuring that the policies effectively reach key sectors and demographics, enhancing consumer purchasing power and reducing financing barriers for businesses [11][12].

国债期货日报 | 2026-02-05 移仓进行中，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 12月CPI同比上升0.8%。 财政：（3）财政：2025年全年财政收支整体未达预期，收入受税收走弱与非税高基数拖累，全年一般公共预算 收入同比下降1.7%；支出节奏前置，年末力度减弱，全年完成度偏低。结构上呈现分化特征，民生支出总体稳定， 基建类支出占比下降，土地财政收入持续疲软。展望2026年，财政政策预计延续积极，强调"总量增加、结构更优"， 支出力度有望加强，节奏继续前置，对稳增长形成支撑。（4）金融：2025年前12个月份社会融资规模增量累计为 35.6万亿元，比去年同期3.34万亿：12月末，M2余 ...