在美国总统特朗普4月扩大关税措施之前，日本经济已经处于收缩状态。 对于一季度已萎缩的日本经济而言，前景依旧不容乐观。 日本内阁府6月9日发布的数据显示，日本第一季度国内生产总值（GDP）折合年率为下降0.2%，低于 此前预估的0.7%。 其中，个人消费增长了0.1%，企业支出增长了1.1%。库存为经济增长贡献了0.6个百分点，而净出口则 拖累了经济增长0.8个百分点。上述数据显示，在美国总统特朗普4月扩大关税措施之前，日本经济已经 处于收缩状态。 牛津经济研究院（Oxford Economics）日本首席经济学家长井滋人（Nagai Shigeto）近日在接受第一财 经记者采访时表示，对日本经济后续的走势较为悲观。在一季度增速下降后，长井预计，今年二季度日 本GDP增速会持平，"消费会维持温和增长的态势，但是全球经济增速放缓会影响日本的出口，同时， 围绕美国关税的高度不确定性会抑制日本国内外的投资。" 五轮关税谈判"无果" 在日本内阁府关于最新GDP数据公布前，日美刚刚结束第五轮关税谈判，但依然毫无进展。日本经济再 生担当大臣赤泽亮正于当地时间6月5日~6日在华盛顿出席了第五轮日美关税谈判。事后，他表示双 方 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to multiple companies in the renewable energy sector, including China Power (2380 HK), China Resources Power (836 HK), and GCL-Poly Energy (3800 HK) [2][4]. Core Insights - The renewable energy operators face both challenges and opportunities under new policies, with dividend levels showing relative certainty. The introduction of Document No. 136 in 2025 is expected to shift the long-term strategies of operators significantly [1][7]. - The solar photovoltaic (PV) industry is anticipated to experience a substantial capacity clearance, with stock prices declining, presenting opportunities for leading companies. The demand for solar PV is expected to remain strong in 2024, but a short-term adjustment in demand is likely following the end of the rush to install projects [17][20]. - Wind power installations are projected to grow by 23% in 2025, reaching 98 GW, but a slight decline is expected in 2026 due to adjustments in pricing mechanisms [4][6]. Summary by Sections Operators - Operators are expected to focus on maintaining dividend rates, with an average dividend yield of around 6% across the covered companies. The report highlights that operators with strong technical capabilities and scale advantages will be better positioned to adapt to market changes [11][14]. - The new pricing mechanism will require operators to optimize project management and respond to fluctuations in electricity prices [7][8]. Photovoltaic Industry - The report predicts that the global demand for solar PV will slow down in 2025, with a projected installation of approximately 270 GW in China, a 3% decrease year-on-year [22]. - The solar glass sector is expected to see a rebound in prices after a strong recovery, but future supply may decrease due to regulatory requirements for capacity replacement [37][38]. Wind Power - The report anticipates that the wind power sector will see a significant increase in new installations in 2025, but a potential decline in 2026 due to the new pricing mechanism and market adjustments [4][6]. - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers will depend on their ability to deliver projects in offshore and international markets [4][6]. Financial Metrics - The report provides detailed financial metrics for various companies, including earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratios, and dividend yields, indicating a generally favorable outlook for operators in the renewable energy sector [2][4][14].

Core Viewpoint - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' stock is significantly overvalued despite some growth, with concerns regarding profitability and performance during downturns [3][10]. Financial Performance - In fiscal Q1, Ollie's reported a 13% year-over-year increase in sales to $577 million, which was below market expectations, raising concerns about demand consistency [4]. - Non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.75, exceeding analyst expectations by 6%, indicating improved cost controls or margin expansion [4]. - The operating margin decreased to 9.7% from 11.1% year-over-year, yet management maintained full-year adjusted EPS guidance at $3.70 [4]. - Same-store sales increased by 2.6%, matching the previous year's pace [4]. Valuation Metrics - Ollie's price-to-sales ratio is 3.1, slightly above the S&P 500's 3.0, while the price-to-free cash flow ratio stands at 30.8 compared to the S&P's 20.5 [5]. - The price-to-earnings ratio of 35.2 is significantly higher than the benchmark's 26.4, suggesting that investors are overvaluing the company's performance [5]. Profitability Profile - Revenue growth has been respectable, with a 9.1% annual increase over the past three years, reaching $2.3 billion in the last twelve months [6]. - Operating margin is at 11.0%, below the S&P 500's 13.2%, and the operating cash flow margin is at 10.0%, compared to the index's 14.9% [6]. - The net income margin of 8.8% also falls short of the S&P's 11.6%, positioning Ollie's among the weaker performers in the Trefis coverage universe [6]. Financial Stability - Ollie's balance sheet is strong, with $648 million in debt against a market capitalization of $7 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 9.7%, well below the S&P 500's 19.9% [7]. - The cash-to-assets ratio is consistent with the broader index, but does not alleviate concerns regarding weak profitability and high valuation [8]. Downturn Performance - Ollie's stock has shown poor resilience during economic downturns, with a 64.2% decline during the 2022 inflation shock compared to a 25.4% drop in the S&P 500 [9]. - During the 2020 COVID market crash, Ollie's stock fell 46.2%, while the broader index declined by 33.9% [9].

Core Insights - The U.S. power grid is on the brink of collapse due to extreme weather and a rapid transition in energy structure, with Goldman Sachs warning of potential rolling blackouts and soaring electricity prices this summer [1][2] Group 1: Electricity Demand and Supply - U.S. electricity demand has been growing rapidly, with an average annual growth rate expected to reach 2.5%, remaining high until 2030 [1] - The construction of controllable energy sources, such as natural gas and coal power plants, is lagging significantly behind the demand growth [1] - The effective reserve capacity in the U.S. is projected to fall below the recommended 20% safety margin this year, with a shocking decline to 14% by 2027 [1] Group 2: Regional Power Grid Risks - The PJM grid is expected to enter a state of emergency this summer, with reserve capacity plummeting from 15% in 2024 to 6% by 2027 [2] - The MISO grid will reach a critical threshold in 2026 due to insufficient generation facilities amid rising demand [2] - The ERCOT grid, while currently benefiting from renewable energy, is projected to enter a dangerous zone by 2028, with Texas already showing the highest price risk premium during peak demand [2] Group 3: Market Implications and Recommendations - The tightening of the electricity market will lead to increased price volatility, a shift in investment towards energy storage and generation facilities, and consumers needing to manage risks proactively [3] - Regulatory actions may be necessary to prevent further coal plant closures and expedite the approval process for natural gas infrastructure [3] - Previous warnings about the stability of the U.S. power grid have been issued, with PJM alerting to supply gap risks as early as May [4]

Group 1 - A number of actively managed equity funds have implemented purchase limits, ranging from 10,000 to 1 million yuan, due to their strong performance [1] - Analysts suggest that the decision to limit purchases is influenced by the need to maintain fund stability and balance, especially in a market lacking clear trends [1] - The influx of new capital could dilute the returns for existing investors, and finding better investment opportunities in the current market conditions is challenging [1] Group 2 - Different fund strategies have varying market capacities; for instance, funds focusing on small and micro-cap stocks may not be suitable for large-scale products due to the smaller market capitalization of these stocks [1]

当瑞郎汇率走强时，会发生一段时期的价格涨幅低于零。 瑞士央行官员Tschudin：央行将确保中期之内的价格稳定性。 ...

基本面： 周二（6月3日）亚盘时段，现货黄金小幅回吐隔夜部分涨幅测试盘中突破水平，目前暂交投于3362美元附近。周一（6月2日）金价单日暴涨2.77%，突破 3380美元/盎司，创下三周新高；亚市早盘更是一度触及3392美元，多头剑指3400美元关键心理关口。这场看似突然的爆发，实则是多重风险因素叠加下的 结果——美联储降息预期重燃、俄乌和谈未果引爆战争风险、美国钢铝关税翻倍至50%撕裂全球供应链等，黄金或将再度拾起上行模式。 美元指数周一暴跌0.75%至98.60，创下4月22日以来新低收盘价，成为推升金价的最直接推手。这种罕见的颓势背后，是市场对特朗普政府"自杀式贸易政 策"的集体抗议。当特朗普宣布将钢铝关税提高一倍至50%时，市场立刻用脚投票。摩根士丹利报告尖锐指出："关税本质是对美国消费者的隐形征税，这将 加速通胀反弹并压制消费。"更致命的是，欧盟已明确警告将于7月启动对950亿欧元美国商品的报复性关税，全球贸易体系正在滑向"以邻为壑"的深渊。 美国5月制造业PMI跌至48.5的六个月新低，供应商交货时间却拉长至近三年最长——这种"滞胀"组合令美联储陷入两难。联邦基金利率期货显示，交易员预 计9月降息 ...

金十数据5月30日讯，据路透社报道，三名美国官员、一名西方官员及一位北约消息人士透露，尽管美 国正推动欧洲盟友承担更多安全责任，但至少在现阶段， 特朗普将维持由美军将领掌舵北约的传统角 色。一名西方官员称，特朗普已私下向北约秘书长吕特传达了这一决定。此举将缓解北约欧洲盟友甚至 部分共和党人的担忧——此前美国对欧强硬言论及对乌克兰冲突的怀疑态度，曾被解读为可能迅速收缩 美国军事领导角色的信号。官员们表示，尽管特朗普政府多次强调需将重心转向亚洲及国土安全，且已 讨论过可能的驻欧美军减员计划，但 维持北约指挥权归属的决定释放了"跨大西洋联盟稳定性"的信 号。 特朗普决心维持北约指挥权 缓解盟友对美战略收缩担忧 ...

新华社北京5月30日电 题：中国贸促会回应近期经贸投资新动向 新华社记者邹多为 累计签发原产地证书、商事证明书等各类证书数量较上年增长21.45%，优惠原产地证书和RCEP原 产地证书签证金额同比分别增长47.07%和25.33%……5月30日，中国贸促会在例行新闻发布会上发布的 4月全国贸促系统商事认证数据表明，广大外贸企业正积极运用多项优惠政策开拓多元化市场，推动外 贸保持平稳增长。 今年以来，国际环境复杂演变，外部冲击影响加大。当天发布的3月全球经贸摩擦指数显示，当月 全球经贸摩擦指数为126，处于高位，在监测范围内的20个国家（地区）中，美国的全球经贸摩擦措施 涉及金额最多，连续9个月居首。 面对急剧变化的复杂局势，美国摩根大通集团董事长兼首席执行官杰米·戴蒙近日访华时表示，看 好中国经济发展前景，愿意继续深耕中国资本市场，更好服务跨国公司来华展业和中国公司海外发展。 无独有偶，美国工商界人士还踊跃出席近期举行的2025年全球贸易投资促进峰会。 中国美国商会会长何迈可表示，美国企业会持续投资中国，参与到中国经济增长和创新之中；美国 大豆出口协会大中华区首席代表张晓平说，要和中国携手，与中国不断满足全体 ...

金十数据5月30日讯，中山大学肿瘤防治中心科研团队日前完成一项表观遗传学研究，发现一种蛋白质 能通过抑制组蛋白修饰来精准调控基因组稳定性，为肿瘤等疾病治疗揭示新的探索方向。相关研究论文 于北京时间30日在国际学术期刊《科学》发表。（新华社） 中国科学家发现肿瘤表观遗传的新机制 ...