近期，贸易、地缘局势缓和，市场避险需求下降。另外，由于美国劳动力市场降温，叠加通胀温和反 弹，市场已基本定价美联储9月降息25个基点的预期，白银短期或陷入高位震荡整理。仍需等待美联储 政策预期进一步明朗化，重点关注8月美国的通胀和非农就业报告情况，不排除9月降息不及预期的可 能。 美国降息必要性上升 根据美国联邦基金利率期货隐含的降息预期，明年上半年美联储利率可能降至3.3%~3.5%，目前联邦基 金利率为4.25%~4.5%，即有1个百分点的降息空间。预计美联储将在9月和12月议息会议上分别降息25 个基点，明年上半年仍有两次降息的可能性，但降息预期能否落地更多取决于数据的表现。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 美联储独立性担忧加剧 特朗普再次上台以来，曾多次在个人社交媒体和公开场合批评美联储主席鲍威尔，指责美联储政策引发 通胀且没有很好解决通胀问题，在降息问题上行动迟缓等。近日，特朗普对美联储持续施压，喊话美联 储理事库克立即辞职。 随着美联储主席鲍威尔任期临近结束，市场对美联储政策独立性的担忧可能进一步发 ...

美联储独立性担忧加剧 近期，贸易、地缘局势缓和，市场避险需求下降。另外，由于美国劳动力市场降温，叠加通胀温和反 弹，市场已基本定价美联储9月降息25个基点的预期，白银短期或陷入高位震荡整理。仍需等待美联储 政策预期进一步明朗化，重点关注8月美国的通胀和非农就业报告情况，不排除9月降息不及预期的可 能。 美国降息必要性上升 美国近几个月的通胀并未出现此前市场预期的由于关税政策影响大幅上升的情况，通胀整体表现温和。 美国7月CPI环比增0.2%，较6月放缓0.1个百分点，同比增2.7%，与前值持平；核心CPI环比增0.3%，较 6月增加0.1个百分点，同比增3.1%，高于前值和市场预期，整体呈现出名义增速放缓，但核心增速上涨 的特征。虽然关税给美国带来了输入性通胀的压力，但其主要作用于占比较小的核心商品领域，而美国 以服务消费为主，因此其长期通胀水平仍然取决于核心服务。预计美国长期通胀维持高位震荡，但下半 年通胀预期仍有回落可能，美联储 9月降息的压力降低。 疫情之后，美国劳动力市场表现出一定韧性。今年上半年以来，美国新增非农就业人数有所下调，一方 面经济增长放缓，另一方面移民、政府部门裁员政策对就业也有冲击。2 ...

当地时间8月20日，美联储公布的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）7月货币政策会议纪要显示，部分与会者指出，美国对全球贸易对象加征关税的政策，将持 续影响美国消费和服务价格。 关税对商品价格带来了上升的压力，这是非常明确的。美国的商品和服务在二季度因为高关税是急剧下降的，高关税的影响和冲击在延续。从这个角度来 看，美联储判断美国的通胀会逐步走升，认为实际的价格会伴随着关税的升高而上涨。 美联储官网截图 与此同时，与会者指出，迄今为止的证据表明，外国出口商只支付了加征关税的"小部分成本"，美国国内企业和消费者则承担了"主要成本"。 中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员刘英在接受总台环球资讯广播记者采访时分析认为，这是美联储对当下美国关税政策影响的判断，而这一结论与特朗普 在第一任期内发起关税战时，美国业界做出的评价一致。 这次美联储的货币政策会议纪要对美国关税政策对价格的影响做出"逐步推升"的明确判断。在成本分摊方面，其实在特朗普第一任期时，包括彼得森研究所 也做出了非常明确的数据分析，结论就是九成以上的关税成本都是由美国消费者承担的。美联储也认为这些高关税，无论是"对等关税"还是行业关税，都会 逐步由美国的消费者来承 ...

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading around 775.50 CNY per gram, with a slight increase of 0.35% [1] - The highest and lowest points for gold futures today were 777.50 CNY and 775.40 CNY respectively, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] Group 2 - Allianz Group's chief economic advisor, Mohamed El-Erian, believes that the Federal Reserve may be acting too slowly regarding interest rate cuts [3] - El-Erian suggests that the Fed should have initiated rate cuts last month, highlighting the risks of relying too heavily on data [3] - Recent inflation data presents a mixed picture, with July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose significantly by 3.3% compared to the previous year [3] - Despite rising inflation, El-Erian notes that price growth expectations remain relatively stable due to structural changes in the supply side of the economy [3] - The U.S. job market is showing signs of deterioration, with July's job creation falling short of expectations and previous months' job growth data revised down by a total of 258,000 [3] Group 3 - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 788 CNY and 847 CNY per gram, while important support levels are between 773 CNY and 830 CNY [4]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points, and two additional cuts in 2026, lowering the terminal rate to between 3% and 3.25% [1] - The consumer price index (CPI) data for July showed a slight increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.2%, aligning with economists' expectations, while gasoline prices fell by 2.2% [2][3] - Following the release of weak non-farm payroll data, Goldman Sachs indicated that the adjustment in employment growth data was the most significant in 57 years, suggesting a potential reduction in monthly job growth expectations by 45,000 to 80,000 [3] Group 2 - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September have risen to 93%, with a 7% chance for a 50 basis point cut [4] - Traders anticipate a total rate cut of approximately 65 basis points this year, an increase from previous predictions of around 60 basis points [5] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has advocated for a 50 basis point cut, citing recent weak employment data as a reason for a more significant reduction [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities maintains the judgment that the Federal Reserve will implement its first interest rate cut in September and will lower rates twice within the year [1] Inflation and Tariffs - July inflation data in the U.S. indicates that the transmission of tariffs to inflation is relatively mild [1] - Research by Cavallo et al. shows that after tariffs are announced, the maximum increase in commodity prices occurs within 10-15 weeks (3-4 months) [1] - Due to weak perceived demand, companies only pass on 50-60% of the tariff pressure to consumers, preventing a larger increase in inflation [1] Future Outlook - With an expected increase in tariffs in August, core inflation may continue to rise moderately [1] - Weak corporate demand and a weakening labor market will constrain the extent of inflation increases [1] - The slowdown in demand and accelerated deportation of illegal immigrants suggest that the labor market will continue to face pressure in the third quarter [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the nomination of E.J. Antony by President Trump to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) following the dismissal of the previous director due to dissatisfaction with employment data [1][4]. - The U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling, with July's non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% [2][4]. - Antony, who has been critical of the previous employment data, is expected to ensure the accuracy of the data published by the BLS, which has faced scrutiny regarding its reliability [1][5]. Group 2 - The nomination comes just before the scheduled release of July inflation data, with expectations that consumer prices will rise for the third consecutive month due to the impact of Trump's tariff policies [4]. - Concerns have been raised about the reliability of U.S. economic data, with a significant number of economists expressing worries about the declining quality of data collection and reporting by the BLS [5]. - The BLS has faced challenges such as reduced staffing and budget cuts, leading to a decrease in the sample size for the Consumer Price Index and the cessation of certain data releases, which may further compromise data integrity [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the nomination of E.J. Antony by President Trump to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) following dissatisfaction with the employment data released by the BLS [1] - The U.S. unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000 [1] - The previous employment data for May and June was revised down sharply, indicating a cooling job market, with May's jobs revised from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000 [1] Group 2 - The nomination of Antony is expected to face little resistance in the Senate, where the Republican Party holds a majority [2] - The announcement of the nomination came just before the scheduled release of July inflation data, with predictions of a continued rise in the Consumer Price Index due to Trump's tariff policies [2] - Concerns have been raised regarding the reliability of U.S. economic data, particularly due to declining response rates and difficulties in data collection faced by the BLS [2][3] Group 3 - A survey conducted by Reuters among 100 economists and policy experts revealed widespread concern about the declining quality of U.S. economic data [3] - Former BLS director Erica Groshen expressed worries that staffing reductions could lead to unnoticed biases or errors in economic reports [3]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts within the year, citing recent weak labor market data as a reinforcement of this stance [1][3] - Bowman emphasizes the need to avoid further unnecessary deterioration in the labor market and reduce the likelihood of larger policy corrections in the future [3] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicates that the timing for rate cuts is approaching due to evidence of a weakening job market and the absence of persistent tariff-induced inflation [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Federal Reserve will begin a series of three consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts starting in September, with a potential for a 50 basis point cut if unemployment rises further [3][4] - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting, with Bowman and another governor voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [3][4] - Recent labor market data shows a significant underperformance, with July non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, well below the Dow Jones estimate of 100,000, and revisions to previous months indicating a downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs [4] Group 3 - Inflation data reveals that the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, indicating stable inflation [5] - The core PCE price index for June also increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [5] - Upcoming key economic data releases, including July CPI, PPI, and retail sales, are anticipated to provide important insights for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments [5][6]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market showed signs of slowing down, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000 in July, below the market expectation of 104,000, and a downward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs in the previous two months, resulting in an average increase of only 35,000 jobs over the past three months, the worst since the end of the pandemic [1] - The unemployment rate in July rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, in line with expectations, while average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing both June's increase and the expected 3.8% [1] - The ISM manufacturing index fell to 48 in July from 49 in June, indicating further contraction, contrary to expectations of a rebound to 49.5 [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the July meeting, with Chairman Powell emphasizing that the current moderate tightening policy remains appropriate despite risks in the labor market [3] - Market expectations indicate an 87% probability of two rate cuts by the end of the year, following a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve [4] - Investment strategies suggest focusing on reasonably valued quality stocks that would benefit from rate cuts and diversifying stock portfolios into non-U.S. markets, while maintaining a neutral duration in bond portfolios to manage interest rate market volatility [4]