Economic Overview - The U.S. GDP growth for Q2 was revised up to 3.0%, exceeding expectations of 2.6%, with net exports contributing 5 percentage points[5] - The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now forecast indicates a slight decrease in Q3 GDP growth to 2.1%[3] - The final domestic private purchases growth (consumption + investment) fell by 0.7 percentage points to 1.2%[5] Employment Data - July non-farm payrolls increased by only 74,000, significantly below the expected 104,000, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000[5] - Initial jobless claims decreased by 23,000 to 193,000, better than the expected 211,000, indicating no significant layoffs yet[3] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, primarily due to a drop in labor force participation[5] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The core PCE inflation for June was reported at 2.6%, above the expected 2.5%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[5] - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July FOMC meeting, with a hawkish tone from Powell[6] Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices fell, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones down by 2.4%, 2.2%, and 2.9% respectively[7] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 1% to 98.7, while the euro and yen depreciated by 2.8% and 2.1% respectively[7] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold prices increased by 1.9% to $3,399.8 per ounce, while Brent crude oil rose by 1.8% to $69.7 per barrel[7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the bank maintains a neutral outlook on US stocks, expecting only one rate cut by the end of the year, and has downgraded sovereign and investment-grade corporate bonds to "neutral" [1][2] - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, marking the first time since 1993 that two members voted against the decision [1] - The Fed's assessment of the US economy has been downgraded, indicating a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year, contrasting with previous statements describing steady expansion [1] Group 2 - The impact of the trade war on US inflation and overall economic activity remains unclear, and with the job market stable, the likelihood of a rate cut in September is low [2] - The bank notes that major central banks are expected to slow their rate-cutting pace, and concerns about fiscal outlook are rising, leading to a downgrade of sovereign and investment-grade corporate bonds to neutral [2] - Despite the recent rise in US stocks supported by strong performance from leading tech companies, valuations are significantly high, and the opportunity for US stocks to outperform other markets in the short to medium term is limited [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the US economy shows resilience, supported by a decline in imports, strong consumer spending, and a return of manufacturing investments, leading to a narrowing of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] Group 2 - The US GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 3.0%, exceeding market expectations of 2.6% and significantly higher than the previous value of -0.5% [1] - Key supports for the GDP growth included a decrease in imports, resilient consumer spending, and private non-residential investment, while private inventory changes, residential investment, and goods and services exports were the main drags [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting revealed internal divisions, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating increasing disagreement within the committee [2] - The Fed expressed greater uncertainty regarding economic and inflation outlooks, with tariffs beginning to impact consumer prices, suggesting that inflation data will be influenced by these tariffs [2] - The Fed's stance remains hawkish, with a commitment to data-driven decisions, leading to a further reduction in market expectations for rate cuts throughout the year [2][3] - The expectation for interest rate cuts has narrowed, with only one potential cut anticipated in October, and the risk of no cuts for the entire year has increased [3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to oscillate between 4.5% and 5.0% in the second half of the year, reflecting a higher interest rate environment [3] - The US stock market is expected to experience some volatility but maintain an overall upward trend, particularly in sectors supported by capital expenditures and performance, such as AI and semiconductors [3]

金十数据7月31日讯，市场调研公司SentimenTrader称，美国股市即将结束有史以来最为火热的一个七 月。在这个月份，标普500指数已经10次创下历史新高（为1928年以来表现第三好的7月），纳斯达克综 合指数更是14次创下历史新高。这种"超级月份"在夏季很少见，历史数据显示，在经历了7月类似的飙 升之后，8月就变得艰难了。从历史上看，当标普500指数在7月份创下至少7个多年新高时，其8月份上 涨的概率仅有36%，而接下来两个月上涨的概率不到一半。纳斯达克综合指数表现出了更强的韧性，通 常在4个月后强劲反弹，但8月仍变得像一场赌博。 机构：美股"超级月份"将结束，8月或面临获利了结 ...

现货白银跌超2%，现报36.34美元/盎司；纽约银日内跌幅达3%，报36.61美元/盎司。 ...

智通财经7月31日电，美股跌幅扩大，道琼斯指数现跌0.5%，最新报44399.29点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European stock market has priced in too much optimism, and Bank of America predicts a potential decline of about 10% for the Stoxx 600 index, with cyclical stocks possibly dropping around 15% compared to defensive stocks [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - Despite a previous period of optimism, the relative performance of European stocks against the MSCI global index has largely reversed since mid-March [2][3]. - From December 2024 to March 2025, the Stoxx 600 index outperformed the MSCI global index by nearly 15% due to a shift in market sentiment and expectations regarding fiscal stimulus in Germany [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The market had overly high expectations for European economic recovery in March, which did not materialize as anticipated, leading to a correction in stock prices [4]. - The nominal effective exchange rate of the euro has increased by approximately 7.5% since February, negatively impacting the earnings of export-oriented European companies and lowering stock valuations by 8-9% [5]. - The resurgence of growth stocks in the U.S. has diminished the attractiveness of European value stocks, which have historically outperformed growth stocks in Europe [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Bank of America has downgraded its rating on European stocks from "overweight" to "neutral," citing that the current valuations have already factored in too many positive developments, limiting the potential for further gains [7]. - The forecast for the eurozone indicates nearly zero growth by the second half of 2025, which poses systemic risks to global growth, particularly affecting export-driven economies like Europe [7].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the strong upward trend in the U.S. stock market will continue despite concerns over high valuations and the potential re-emergence of "meme stock" bubbles [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - The overall market has not yet formed a consensus on a bullish outlook, but even previously pessimistic investors are beginning to change their stance [1] - Recent progress in trade agreements, positive economic data, and a revival in merger and acquisition activities are providing strong support for the stock market [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The current rally is benefiting from a combination of momentum reversal and the "meme craze," which increases the costs and risks associated with short-selling [1] - If macroeconomic data remains robust and more trade agreements are reached, the market could potentially "take a significant step upward" [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Scott Rubner, head of equity and derivatives strategy at Castle Securities, also believes that the U.S. stock market will continue to rise until September, advising investors to "seize the upside opportunity first, then hedge in the fall" [1]

Group 1 - U.S. stock market continues to rise with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by over 1% [1] - Nasdaq Composite Index shows a gain of 0.35% [1] - S&P 500 Index rises by 0.6% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the apology issued by the China Online Car-Hailing Association regarding the misleading information about the complete ban on fuel vehicles in ride-hailing platforms in Beijing [1][2] - The association has taken corrective action by retracting the misleading news and has expressed sincere apologies to the public and affected parties [2] - The association has committed to strengthening the review process for information published on its official account to prevent similar issues in the future [2]