格隆汇10月6日｜尽管市场此前担忧美股会受季节性疲软影响，但巴克莱集团(Barclays Plc)的一项股票 指标却准确预测了9月的涨势。如今，该指标显示，美国股市长达数月的连涨行情有望延续。巴克莱股 票时机指标(简称 BETI)通过分析市场内部数据、持仓情况及经济数据等19项输入变量来寻找市场拐 点，其当前信号显示，标普500指数仍有进一步上涨的空间。回溯至2015年的数据显示，该指标目前暗 示，未来两个月标普500指数上涨的概率为82%，期间平均涨幅可达4%。尽管这并非明确的"买入"信 号，但在标普500指数自4月初以来已累计上涨35%的背景下，该指标当前数值从统计学角度证实了美股 存在显著的上涨可能性。 值得注意的是，巴克莱的这一指标此前已准确预测了9月的美股涨势——这一观点与市场共识相悖，华 尔街多家交易部门此前均预计美股会受季节性疲软拖累。但实际情况是，标普500指数在9月创下15年来 同期最佳表现，打破了其 "美股年度最差月份" 的固有印象。尤为关键的是，该指标剔除了情绪调查类 数据，转而聚焦基本面——这一设计为反驳 "交易员情绪过于狂热" 的说法提供了有力支撑。 奥特曼指出，情绪指标对市场未来回 ...

Group 1: Gold and Silver Market - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, falling below $3820 per ounce after reaching a high of $3896 per ounce, marking a decline of approximately $80 within the day, with a decrease of over 1% [1] - Silver also saw a decline, with prices dropping over 2% to $46 per ounce after previously exceeding $48 per ounce [1] Group 2: Stock Market Indices - The Dow Jones Industrial Average was reported at 46344.94, down 96.16 points or 0.21%, with a trading volume of 196 million shares [3] - The Nasdaq Composite Index increased slightly by 14.92 points or 0.07%, reaching 22770.08, with a trading volume of 4.91 billion shares [4] Group 3: Oil Market - WTI crude oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive day, dropping below $61 per barrel, reaching a four-month low due to market expectations that OPEC+ will accelerate the restoration of idle production capacity amid concerns of global oversupply [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of various ETFs and indices on October 2, with Brent crude oil prices declining by 1.91% and several other ETFs, including real estate, agricultural, and gold, also experiencing declines ranging from 0.35% to 0.52% [1] - The S&P 500 ETF, dollar index, and Dow Jones ETF showed slight increases, ranging from 0.12% to 0.18%, indicating a mixed market sentiment [1] - Long-term U.S. Treasury ETFs rose by 0.29%, while the Nasdaq 100 ETF and emerging market ETFs saw increases of at least 0.41%, suggesting a preference for growth-oriented investments [1] Group 2 - The Russell 2000 index ETF and soybean funds experienced gains of at least 0.63%, reflecting positive sentiment in small-cap stocks and agricultural commodities [1] - The overall market showed a divergence in performance, with some sectors like energy and real estate underperforming while others like technology and small caps gained traction [1]

Market Overview - Gold prices surged last week, breaking the 3800 mark and reaching 3850, with a notable increase of 90 USD [1][5][12] - The bullish trend is expected to continue, with targets set at 3900 [7][12] Recent Developments - The recent rally in gold prices is attributed to a liquidity crisis in the U.S. and heightened tensions regarding a potential government shutdown, which has led to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [13] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and internal divisions have also contributed to the bullish sentiment in the gold market, with expectations of rising inflation [13] Technical Analysis - Key support levels are identified at 3822 and 3790, with potential for rebounds if these levels hold [9][12] - The market has seen a continuous upward trend for four months, with a significant monthly increase of 400 USD and an annual increase exceeding 1000 USD [12] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on entry and exit points to maximize profits, emphasizing the importance of experience and risk management [15] - Following experienced traders is suggested as a strategy to achieve higher accuracy and profitability in gold trading [15]

【摩根大通：美股短期或回调，年底前仍有望涨至7000点】摩根大通发布最新展望，指出美股虽有望年 底前冲击7000点，但投资者要警惕短期回调风险。市场情报团队报告称，下周美股或温和下行，之后进 入"决胜时刻"，有望11月前加速升至7000点。 分析师指出，季节性疲软、反弹幅度过大、长期缺乏回 调、散户情绪过热、宏观事件落地等因素，或带来短期下行压力。不过从现在到年底，美股上涨可能性 仍大于下跌，团队维持"战术性看涨"，建议抄底回调。 摩根大通列举五大短期下行风险：一是季节性 因素，9、10月市场表现常平淡；二是反弹幅度过大，此次反弹强度超多数年份；三是长期缺乏回调， 标普500指数93天未现3%以上回调；四是散户情绪过热，接近一年来高点；五是市场已消化美联储降息 预期。 尽管有短期风险，摩根大通对美股中长期前景仍有信心。季节性因素长期看是利好，投资者仓 位突破下降趋势，空头仓位情况或助推股指，美联储降息后股市常表现好，年底股票ETF资金流入或走 强。 美国消费者现金储备创纪录，支撑摩根大通的乐观看法。2025年二季度消费者现金储备达21.8万亿 美元，多数收入群体现金持有量高于2019年，推动消费增长和GDP提 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market continues its upward trend, supported by positive signals from high-level communications and the ongoing favorable effects of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, despite a slight decline in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index [1][1][1] Group 1: Market Performance - The U.S. stock market experienced a high opening and continued to rise, avoiding a low opening that could trigger selling pressure, particularly on a significant options expiration day [1][1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's decline indicates potential pressure on technology stocks, with Micron and TSMC ADR both closing lower [1][1][1] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Micron's stock ended a 12-day winning streak ahead of its earnings report, suggesting that some investors are taking profits before the announcement [1][1] - The upcoming earnings report on September 23 will be crucial for Micron, as its current stock price reflects optimistic expectations; disappointing results could lead to significant volatility not only for Micron but also for the semiconductor sector and the broader U.S. stock market [1][1][1] Group 3: Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key economic events are approaching, including the PMI data release on September 23, Jerome Powell's economic outlook on September 24, and the August PCE data on September 26, which will be important variables influencing the future direction of the U.S. stock market [1][1][1]

Core Points - The U.S. stock market indices experienced an overall increase on September 19, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.05%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.19%, and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.34% [1][1][1] - The Nasdaq has shown a significant year-to-date increase of over 16% [1][1][1] Index Performance - Dow Jones Industrial Average: Current price is 46,164.85 with a year-to-date increase of 8.51% [1][1] - S&P 500: Current price is 6,644.67 with a year-to-date increase of 12.97% [1][1] - Nasdaq Composite: Current price is 22,547.38 with a year-to-date increase of 16.76% [1][1]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets have outperformed US stocks this year primarily due to strong domestic retail investor participation rather than significant foreign capital inflows [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The performance of emerging markets is driven by local retail investors, despite downward adjustments in corporate profit expectations and concerns over potential US tariffs [1] - Investor focus has shifted towards popular sectors such as AI and technology, contributing to an overall optimistic market sentiment [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Attention should be paid to potential risks such as a slowdown in the US economy and global growth deceleration, alongside the positive effects of easing inflation and monetary policy outside the US [1] - If multiple cyclical factors align, including a faster US economic slowdown compared to other countries, declining real interest rates in the US, and a significant depreciation of the dollar, emerging markets are expected to outperform US stocks within the next 6 to 12 months [1] - This anticipated outperformance is viewed as cyclical rather than structural [1]

转自：智通财经 【知名分析师Yardeni上调美股目标 称标普指数年内有望涨至7000点】智通财经9月12日电，华尔街资深 策略师Ed Yardeni将他对标普500指数年底的基线目标从之前的6,600点提高至6,800点，同时认为美国股 市这个基准指数有25%的概率在期内"融涨"至7,000点。新目标意味着该指数从周三收盘位6,532点再上 涨4.1%。Yardeni将新目标归因于稳定的通胀数据和美联储下周降息的预期。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the US stock market opened higher and continued to rise, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 1% during the day, setting a new historical high [1]