美银EPFR周度资金流向：截至周三当周，美国国债流入88亿美元，为4月以来最大；加密货币基金流出22亿美元，创有记录以来第二大单周流出量。美股科技股今年有望获得创纪录的750亿美元资金流入。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The US September non - farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, and the prospect of a December interest rate cut is unclear. The employment market has not significantly deteriorated, and the urgency for a rate cut is not strong. The December interest rate meeting is more likely to result in no rate cut and a dovish stance on the future rate - cut path [3][4][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US September Non - farm Payrolls and Interest Rate Outlook - **Employment Data**: The US added 119,000 non - farm jobs in September, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than expected, and the labor participation rate slightly rebounded to 62.4%. Hourly wage growth was 0.2% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year, with the month - on - month rate down from the previous value [3][10] - **Industry Breakdown**: New jobs mainly came from education and healthcare (59,000), leisure and hospitality (47,000), construction (19,000), and retail (14,000). Sectors such as transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, manufacturing, and the federal government continued to lay off workers [3] - **Interest Rate Meeting Outlook**: As the last employment report before the December interest rate meeting, the data's lag reduces its reference value. Market expectations for a rate cut have slightly increased [4][37] 3.2 Investment Recommendations - With a cumulative 50bp rate cut in 2025 and no further acceleration of the economic slowdown, most Fed officials prefer to pause the rate - cut rhythm. Precious metals will continue to consolidate, US Treasury yields will oscillate at recent highs, the US dollar index will oscillate with a slight upward bias, and high - valuation pressure on US stocks will be prominent, with short - term volatility remaining high [5][42]

Market Analysis - The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a downtrend, with Bitcoin showing predominantly negative price action on the daily chart [1] - Bybit's Bitcoin USD perpetual funding rates are high, historically indicating limited potential for a significant upward reversal [1] - A substantial market rebound is not anticipated unless a period of intensely negative funding rates occurs, potentially signaling a short-term or medium-term buying opportunity [1] - From a weekly perspective, Bitcoin's price movement suggests a longer-term downward trajectory, potentially extending to lower price levels [1] - The analysis suggests that the current price action may represent the initial phase of a multi-wave downward correction [1] Trading Strategy - Short-term long positions should only be considered if smaller timeframe market structures shift favorably, accompanied by a pullback [1] - Scalping long positions are the only viable option for short-term trades in the absence of a broader market structure shift [1] - A potential support level exists at a lower price point, but a period of consolidation and market structure change is necessary before considering long positions [1] - A false breakout followed by a decline at a key resistance level could present an opportunity to add to short positions [1] Risk Assessment - Altcoins are likely to continue declining towards zero, emphasizing the importance of focusing on Bitcoin [1] - The U S stock market may be facing challenges, potentially exacerbating the downward pressure on Bitcoin [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market continues to decline, with all three major indices turning negative after a period of gains, including the Nasdaq which briefly rose over 2.5% [1] Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a downturn, with all major indices showing a downward trend [1] - The Nasdaq index had a momentary increase of more than 2.5% before reversing direction [1]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a downturn, particularly in technology stocks, with the Dow Jones down 1.18%, S&P 500 down 0.92%, and Nasdaq down 0.84% as of November 17 [2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have both fallen below their 50-day moving averages for the first time in 139 trading days [2] - The "Big Seven" tech stocks have dropped nearly 4.5% this month, with only Alphabet showing gains [2] AI Sector Insights - Nvidia's upcoming Q3 earnings report is seen as a critical indicator for the AI sector and the broader U.S. stock market [2][7] - Historically, Nvidia's earnings have exceeded market expectations, but there are concerns about high valuations and investor caution [2][7] - Recent institutional selling of Nvidia shares may reflect tactical adjustments rather than a bearish outlook on the AI sector [7][8] Economic Factors - Concerns over high valuations of AI stocks and tightening liquidity are contributing to the recent weakness in the U.S. stock market [4] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has decreased to 48.6% due to hawkish comments from Fed officials [4] - The recent government shutdown and liquidity risks have exacerbated market volatility, with cash balances in the Treasury increasing significantly [4][5] Institutional Behavior - Major hedge funds have reduced their positions in Nvidia, indicating a cautious approach amid high valuations and concentrated holdings [7] - The market is rewarding companies with accelerating growth driven by AI demand, while showing skepticism towards those with unclear business channels [10] Future Outlook - The sustainability of AI spending and profitability remains a key focus for investors, with expectations for significant earnings growth in 2025 and 2026 [11] - The market's current high concentration in tech giants suggests strong profitability, but any underperformance could lead to widespread corrections [11][12] - The long-term success of the AI sector will depend on the actual commercialization of technology and macroeconomic conditions [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement of the postponement of the releases of "Crayon Shin-chan: The Hot Spring Dancer" and "Cells at Work" indicates potential shifts in the animation industry and may impact related market segments [1]. Group 1 - The films "Crayon Shin-chan: The Hot Spring Dancer" and "Cells at Work" were originally scheduled for release but have now been postponed [1].

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index declined by 1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 1.7% on November 13 [1] Group 1 - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant decrease of 1% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a decline of 0.6% [1] - The Nasdaq Composite index faced a drop of 1.7% [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed performance on November 12, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 1% while the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased by 0.24% [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market has experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 0.43%, the S&P 500 down by 0.87%, and the Nasdaq Composite down by 1.53% [1] - The decline in the stock market coincides with a significant drop in consumer confidence, as indicated by the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index reaching its lowest level in over three years [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is expected to enter a softer and clearer growth phase by 2026, with moderate growth anticipated in the US economy and a potential recovery in Eurozone domestic demand [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The US economy is projected to grow moderately [1] - Eurozone domestic demand is expected to recover [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - The overall performance of US stocks is viewed positively for the upcoming year [1] - A cautious outlook is held for long-term US Treasury bonds [1] Group 3: Currency and Commodity Insights - The US dollar is anticipated to strengthen after some fluctuations next year [1] - Attention is drawn to potential demand-driven opportunities in gold and industrial metals [1]