Core Viewpoint - The traditional snack giants are facing a survival crisis as they struggle against the rise of low-cost snack brands, leading to significant declines in revenue and profit margins [1][2][20]. Group 1: Performance of Traditional Snack Giants - Laiyifen reported a double-digit decline in both revenue and net profit in its 2024 annual report, marking the largest loss since its IPO [1] - Good Products also experienced its first annual loss since its listing in 2020 [1] - Three squirrels terminated the acquisition of Ailingshi and announced a strategic partnership with Snack Selection, while facing legal challenges from Ailingshi [1][2] Group 2: Rise of Low-Cost Snack Brands - Low-cost snack brands are rapidly gaining market share through a "low-margin, high-volume" model, posing unprecedented challenges to traditional snack companies [2] - Brands like "Very Busy" and "Snack Revolution" have emerged, focusing on price competitiveness and direct factory connections, undermining the brand premium of traditional players [3][4] Group 3: Changing Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are becoming more rational, with a decreasing willingness to pay a premium for brands [4] - The perception of high prices and product homogeneity among traditional brands is leading to a loss of consumer loyalty [3][4] Group 4: Challenges Faced by Traditional Giants - Three Squirrels heavily relies on online channels, with 70% of its revenue still coming from third-party e-commerce platforms in 2024 [5] - The company aimed for a "ten-thousand store plan" by 2024 but only managed to open 333 stores, closing 549 in 2022 alone [6] - Laiyifen's store count decreased by 16.28% from 2023 to 2024, highlighting the struggles of traditional retail models [6] Group 5: Profitability Issues in the Low-Cost Segment - Leading low-cost brands like "Wancheng" and "Mingming Very Busy" have achieved rapid growth but maintain low profit margins of 0.91% and 2.1% respectively [7][8] - The franchise model prevalent in low-cost brands raises concerns about sustainability, as profitability for franchisees is crucial for continued expansion [8] Group 6: Future Directions for Traditional Giants - Traditional snack companies are exploring new product lines and pricing strategies to combat the low-cost competition, with Good Products initiating a significant price reduction across 300 products [14] - However, this price-cutting strategy risks damaging brand value and consumer trust [14] - The need for operational upgrades and a complete supply chain overhaul is emphasized as essential for survival in the evolving market [17][20] Group 7: New Business Models - Three Squirrels has opened its first lifestyle store, expanding beyond snacks to include a variety of products, indicating a shift towards a more comprehensive retail approach [18] - The company is also developing a convenience store model, focusing on a low-margin strategy with a diverse product mix [18] Group 8: Conclusion - The snack industry is undergoing a transformation where traditional high-end branding is losing relevance, and the focus is shifting towards affordability and value [20] - The future of the snack market will favor brands that can deliver genuine value to consumers, necessitating a reevaluation of cost structures and value propositions by traditional giants [20]

Core Viewpoint - The snack company Qiyunshan Food Co., Ltd. is set to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, following the footsteps of other snack companies, but faces challenges due to its limited market share and product diversity [1][5]. Financial Performance - Qiyunshan Food's revenue for 2022-2024 is projected to be CNY 217 million, CNY 247 million, and CNY 339 million, with net profits of CNY 25.6 million, CNY 23.7 million, and CNY 53.2 million respectively [1]. - The company's flagship product, the South Jujube Cake, accounts for approximately 86.5% of total sales in 2022, with sales volumes of 4,677.7 tons, 5,160.2 tons, and 7,485.8 tons for the years 2022-2024 [2]. Market Position - Qiyunshan Food holds a market share of about 0.63% in the fruit snack sector, significantly lower than competitors like Liuliu Fruit Garden, which has a market share of 2.61% [1]. - The overall snack market in China is expected to grow from CNY 1,344 billion in 2024 to CNY 1,755.8 billion by 2029, with the fruit snack market growing at a rate of 8.7% [5]. Product and Sales Channels - The company relies heavily on its main product, the South Jujube Cake, which contributes 88.7% to total revenue in 2022 [2]. - Offline sales through distributors account for 86.2% of total revenue in 2022, with a significant increase in revenue from major clients [6][8]. Regional Sales - Approximately one-third of Qiyunshan Food's revenue comes from its home province of Jiangxi, with neighboring provinces contributing significantly to sales growth [4]. - The company has limited geographical reach, with no presence in major northern cities [4]. Pricing and Profitability - The average selling price of the South Jujube Cake has decreased from CNY 41.2 per kg in 2022 to CNY 39.3 per kg in 2024, while procurement costs have risen [8]. - The overall gross margin for the company has declined to 48.6% in 2024, indicating pressure on profitability [8]. Management and Shareholder Structure - The core management team, consisting of six individuals, controls approximately 68.67% of Qiyunshan Food's shares and has received significant dividends, amounting to over CNY 30 million [9].

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of Hunan Ailing Snack Technology Co., Ltd. by Three Squirrels has been terminated due to disagreements on key terms, which reflects the competitive landscape in the snack retail sector [2][3][4] Company Summary - Three Squirrels announced the termination of the acquisition of Ailing Snack, stating that it would not have a significant adverse impact on its operations or future strategic plans [2] - The acquisition was initially proposed at a maximum price of 200 million yuan, indicating a valuation below 400 million yuan for Ailing Snack [4] - Ailing Snack, founded in 2020, has over 2,000 stores and ranked fifth in the number of snack store brands in China as of November 2023 [3] Industry Summary - The snack retail sector is experiencing intense competition, affecting profitability and operational decisions for companies like Three Squirrels [2][4] - The shift towards bulk snack retailing is seen as a strategic move by Three Squirrels to adapt to market pressures and explore growth opportunities [5] - The overall revenue for Three Squirrels has fluctuated, with a notable decline from 2019 to 2023, but is projected to rebound to over 10 billion yuan in 2024 [5][6] - The competitive landscape is challenging for non-leading snack brands, with many facing difficulties in maintaining store operations and profitability [7]

Group 1 - The chairman of Wancheng Group, Wang Jiankun, has had his detention lifted, allowing him to resume his duties, which is expected to stabilize the company's operations [1] - During Wang's detention, Wancheng Group's stock price increased significantly, rising from 94.99 yuan per share to a peak of 156.85 yuan per share, marking a gain of over 65% [1] - Wancheng Group reported a total of over 15,000 signed stores by the end of Q1, with a rapid opening pace, particularly in its "Haoxianglai" brand, which has over 10,000 stores [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the rapid expansion, Wancheng Group's revenue for the last year was 32.3 billion yuan, significantly lower than its main competitor, Mingming Hen Mang, which reported 39.3 billion yuan [2] - Wancheng Group's net profit for the last year was approximately 294 million yuan, while Mingming Hen Mang's adjusted net profit reached 913 million yuan, highlighting a substantial profitability gap [2] - In Q1, Wancheng Group achieved a revenue of 10.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 124.02%, and a net profit of approximately 215 million yuan, reflecting a staggering growth of 3344.13% [5] Group 3 - The company aims to enhance its supply chain efficiency and profitability through a value chain restructuring mechanism that includes direct procurement and centralized pricing [6] - Wancheng Group plans to continue investing in its supply chain, logistics, brand development, and digital capabilities to improve profit margins and operational efficiency [6] - The company acknowledges the need to maintain growth momentum in the face of a slowing store opening pace and is focused on optimizing its operational strategies [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Three Squirrels, is advancing its plans for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, having submitted its application and received acceptance from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, amidst challenges in the snack food industry and a shift in its business model [1][4][14]. Company Development - Founded in 2012, Three Squirrels quickly capitalized on e-commerce trends, achieving significant sales growth and market recognition, particularly in the nut category [4][6]. - The company expanded its product range beyond nuts to over 600 SKUs and attempted to establish a multi-channel presence through offline stores [6][9]. - However, the company faced challenges such as reliance on contract manufacturers leading to food safety issues and a high dependency on a single product category, nuts, which accounted for over 60% of revenue [8][9]. Financial Performance - Three Squirrels experienced a decline in revenue from 101.73 billion yuan in 2019 to 71.15 billion yuan in 2023, with a nearly 70% drop in market capitalization [9]. - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 10.62 billion yuan, a 49.3% increase from the previous year, and a net profit of 407.74 million yuan, an 85.51% increase [10][12]. - The company initiated a strategic transformation in 2022, focusing on self-production and a shift to a "D+N" model, which contributed to a "V-shaped rebound" in 2024 [10][12]. Market Challenges - The snack food industry is experiencing intense competition from low-cost brands, forcing Three Squirrels to consider mergers and acquisitions to maintain market share [18][21]. - The company's sales expenses increased significantly, with a 50.92% rise to 1.868 billion yuan, impacting profit margins [20][21]. - The company is also facing challenges in expanding its offline presence, with only 3% of its store expansion plan realized [9][18]. Future Outlook - The IPO aims to raise funds for supply chain upgrades (40%), channel expansion (30%), product innovation (20%), and strategic acquisitions (5%) [14]. - The company has set an ambitious target of reaching 20 billion yuan in revenue by 2026, which could position it as a leader in the global snack food market if successful [21].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a forward-looking investment value in Mingming Hen Mang and Wancheng Group, anticipating an acceleration in profitability for the leading players in the industry during 2025-2026 [5][61]. Core Insights - Mingming Hen Mang has emerged as a leader in the snack retail sector through a strong merger with Zhao Yiming, resulting in a combined entity with 14,394 stores across 28 provinces in China and a GMV of 55.5 billion [3][7]. - The company's rapid growth is attributed to the expansion of franchise stores and increased sales volume, with a projected revenue of 39.34 billion and adjusted net profit of 9.13 billion for 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 203% and 235% respectively from 2022 to 2024 [3][18]. - The Chinese snack and beverage market is valued at 3.7 trillion, with significant growth potential in the down-market and discount channels, where Mingming Hen Mang holds a market share of 1.5% [4][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Mingming Hen Mang is recognized as a leading food and beverage retailer in China, formed by the merger of "Snacks Are Busy" and "Zhao Yiming" in November 2023, with a focus on operational efficiency and brand integration [3][7]. Industry Trends - The report highlights the ongoing penetration of the discount model in the snack market, with a fragmented retail landscape where the top five players hold only 6% market share [4][11]. Performance Metrics - Revenue and profit growth are driven by the rapid expansion of franchise stores, with a significant increase in store count from 1,902 in 2022 to 14,394 in 2024, achieving a CAGR of 175% [28][29]. - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to improve, with a stable gross margin of 7.6% and an adjusted net profit margin of 2.3% for 2024 [22][21]. Future Outlook - Key future drivers include operational efficiency improvements, upgrades in discount supermarket formats, and steady expansion into Southeast Asia, with initial steps taken in Vietnam [42][52]. - The report anticipates that the domestic discount sector has room for growth, aiming to match the overseas penetration rates of over 15% [5][61].

Group 1: Store Performance and Growth - The company has signed over 15,000 stores as of the end of Q1 2025, with the "Good Idea" brand exceeding 10,000 stores [5][6] - The company aims to maintain stable growth in single-store performance, influenced by brand effect and local consumer demand [2][3] - The company plans to continue healthy growth of its store network, balancing quality and quantity [6] Group 2: Financial Performance and Strategy - Revenue has increased from several hundred million to 30 billion in the past two years [3] - The net profit margin for the bulk snack business is projected to be 2.7% in 2024, with strategies to enhance profitability through supply chain collaboration and logistics management [5][6] - The company is focused on optimizing product structure and extending categories to improve profitability [6] Group 3: Food Safety and Quality Control - The company has established a comprehensive internal control system for product quality management, emphasizing food safety as a critical issue [3] - There is a mechanism in place for reporting and responding to food safety emergencies [3] Group 4: Future Plans and Market Position - The company is exploring various business plans, including potential acquisitions and market expansions, with details to be disclosed in future announcements [5][6] - The company is leveraging digital platforms like Douyin for marketing while maintaining a core focus on offline store operations [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 10.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 124%, and a net profit of 215 million yuan, significantly up from 6 million yuan in the same period last year. The snack wholesale business generated 10.69 billion yuan in revenue, and the net profit, excluding stock payment expenses, was 412 million yuan, resulting in a net profit margin of 3.85%, an increase of 1.16 percentage points compared to 2024 [1][2] - The company is positioned as the purest player in the hard discount sector and is the only listed company in the snack wholesale market. The Q1 net profit margin exceeded expectations, and there is potential for performance growth to surpass forecasts [1][2] - The gross profit margin for the snack wholesale business continued to improve, reaching 11% in Q1 2025, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year. The sales expense ratio decreased to 3.3% and the management expense ratio to 2.5%. With the expansion of store categories, there is still room for improvement in gross profit margins [1][3] Financial Summary - The company’s Q1 2025 sales cash receipts were 11.971 billion yuan, up 122%, with inventory at 1.453 billion yuan, an increase of 110%, resulting in an inventory turnover period of 17 days. The company has established 50 warehousing centers nationwide, ensuring rapid delivery [3] - The company has 3 billion yuan in cash, a 76% increase, and operating net cash flow of 714 million yuan, up 159%. The return on equity (ROE) stands at 17.74%, with a debt ratio of 72.74% [3] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 936 million yuan, 1.292 billion yuan, and 1.602 billion yuan, with growth rates of 219%, 38%, and 24% respectively [3]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the rapid expansion of the "Good Idea Whole Food Selection" stores in Jiangsu, focusing on a multi-category discount retail model that combines snacks, fresh fruits, and baked goods, aiming to cater to the upgrading consumption in lower-tier markets [1][2][4] - The store's product mix includes a significant focus on high-quality items, with a clear emphasis on customer service, such as offering free fruit cutting and washing services, indicating a shift from merely price-based competition to quality and service enhancement [2][11][15] - The report suggests that the head of the snack retail system is entering a phase of rapid expansion, with the potential for further differentiation in store types and a robust supply chain to support this growth [4][26] Summary by Sections 1. Multi-Category Expansion and Store Types - "Good Idea Whole Food Selection" is expanding its store types and product categories, with plans for rapid franchise growth [1][10] - The store has opened six locations in Jiangsu, focusing on community-centric locations with larger store sizes compared to traditional snack stores [11][13] 2. Product and Service Quality - The store's product categories have expanded to include fresh fruits, short-shelf-life baked goods, and a variety of dairy and beverage products, while maintaining a selective SKU approach [2][15] - The overall product quality is high, with pre-packaged fruits and well-known brand household products, enhancing customer loyalty through superior service [15][20] 3. Store Layout and Pricing Strategy - The store layout is designed for clear product zoning and customer flow, with a focus on larger single product displays [20] - Pricing remains competitive, with discounts on various categories compared to traditional supermarkets and online platforms, maintaining a value proposition for consumers [21][23] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for significant growth in the snack retail sector, with established players poised to leverage their supply chain advantages and expand into new product categories [4][26] - The ongoing franchise model and the introduction of new store types are expected to enhance market coverage and operational efficiency [4][26]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the transformation of retail through the expansion of multi-category discount formats, particularly focusing on the "Good Idea Whole Food Selection" in Jiangsu, which combines various store types and aims for rapid franchise expansion [1][4][10] - The "Good Idea Whole Food Selection" has successfully opened six stores in Jiangsu, emphasizing a community-centric approach with larger store sizes compared to traditional snack stores [11][24] - The product mix includes fresh fruits, short-shelf-life baked goods, and a selection of daily necessities, positioning the store more as a food supermarket rather than a simple discount retailer [2][15] Summary by Sections 1. Multi-Category Expansion and Store Types - The "Good Idea Whole Food Selection" is expanding its franchise model with multiple store types, aiming to adapt to various market needs and consumer preferences [1][10] - The company has introduced a diverse range of products, including fresh produce and baked goods, while maintaining a focus on cost-effectiveness and quality [2][11] 2. Store Layout and Customer Experience - The store layout is designed for clear product zoning and customer flow, enhancing the shopping experience and encouraging cross-selling among different product categories [3][20] - The stores feature a significant display area for selected SKUs, which contrasts with the dense layout of traditional supermarkets, thereby improving visibility and accessibility [20] 3. Pricing Strategy - The pricing strategy continues to emphasize value, with many products priced significantly lower than competitors like Hema and traditional supermarkets, maintaining a competitive edge in the market [21][23] - The report provides specific pricing comparisons, showing that many items are offered at discounts ranging from 50% to 80% compared to other retailers [23] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the industry is entering a phase of rapid expansion, with leading companies like Wanchen Group and Mingming Hen Mang poised to capitalize on their established supply chains and operational efficiencies [4][26] - The potential for further market penetration and the introduction of additional store formats is highlighted as a key growth driver for the industry [4][26]