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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gree Electric Appliances with a target price of 54.10 CNY [4][6] Core Views - Gree Electric Appliances is characterized by strong defensive attributes due to its high dividend yield of 6.6% and low foreign sales ratio of approximately 12% [2][4] - Recent operational changes, including board restructuring and digital channel reforms, are expected to drive performance improvements post tariff tensions [3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The company’s expected dividend yield for 2025 is 6.6%, based on a projected net profit of 32.9 billion CNY and a cash dividend payout ratio of 50% [2] - Gree's foreign revenue contribution remains low, with only about 12% from international markets, minimizing exposure to global trade tensions [2] Operational Changes - The board has undergone a restructuring with younger management taking key positions, indicating a shift towards a more dynamic leadership [3] - The planned share buyback by the distributor, Jinghai Huilian, reinforces the company's value proposition, confirming the attractiveness of its low stock price and high dividend yield [3] - The company is advancing its digital transformation, enhancing sales channel efficiency through the establishment of digital technology companies and nationwide promotion of a cloud-based system [3] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Gree's net profit for 2024-2026 to be 30.3 billion CNY, 32.9 billion CNY, and 36.4 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8, 8, and 7 [4][5] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 199.3 billion CNY, 216.9 billion CNY, and 232.8 billion CNY, reflecting a growth trajectory despite a slight decline in 2024 [5][10]

Group 1 - The Asia-Pacific market particularly favors high dividend yields due to limited earnings growth and low valuations in East Asian economies, where increasing dividends and buybacks are essential for maintaining high and stable ROE [1][6] - In the current macroeconomic environment, value assets that can provide stable returns are becoming increasingly important, as they tend to exhibit higher and more stable dividend levels [2][11] - Hong Kong stocks are naturally more suitable for high dividend investments, with a higher proportion of high dividend sectors such as banking (21.6%) and energy (8.1%) compared to other Chinese assets [3][25] Group 2 - The experience from the Japanese market shows that after a slowdown in growth, dividend assets can yield sustained excess returns, with lower timing requirements except during significant tech industry booms [3][29] - The investment opportunities in Hong Kong mutual funds are broader than those in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, allowing for investment in global markets with fewer restrictions [3][29] - The trend of increasing cash returns among Hong Kong tech core assets indicates a shift towards a more balanced high dividend strategy across sectors, rather than being limited to traditional cyclical industries [3][33] Group 3 - Taiwan's stock market has maintained high dividend yields, particularly among leading manufacturing companies, supported by a strong semiconductor industry and favorable policy adjustments [36][37] - The Taiwanese stock market has shown a 9.5% annualized return from 2015 to 2024, with a significant portion of its market capitalization concentrated in advanced manufacturing sectors [36][38] - Despite the overall market's rising trend, the dividend yield of Taiwan's weighted index has not significantly increased, indicating stable dividend policies among leading companies [38]

Quantitative Factors and Construction Factor Name: EP(TTM) (Earnings-to-Price Ratio) - **Construction Idea**: This factor represents the earnings-to-price ratio, used as a value factor to identify undervalued stocks[23] - **Construction Process**: - The factor is calculated as the ratio of earnings per share (EPS) to the stock price - Stocks are ranked based on their EP(TTM) values, and the top 20% are selected as the long portfolio, while the bottom 20% are selected as the short portfolio - Monthly rebalancing is performed on the first trading day of each month using the opening price[23] - **Evaluation**: The factor demonstrates strong historical performance, with significant excess returns and high Rank IC values, indicating its effectiveness in capturing value[23][26] - **Formula**: $ EP(TTM) = \frac{\text{Earnings Per Share (TTM)}}{\text{Stock Price}} $[23] Factor Name: BP(LF) (Book-to-Price Ratio) - **Construction Idea**: This factor represents the book-to-price ratio, another value factor used to identify undervalued stocks[23] - **Construction Process**: - The factor is calculated as the ratio of book value per share to the stock price - Stocks are ranked based on their BP(LF) values, and the top 20% are selected as the long portfolio, while the bottom 20% are selected as the short portfolio - Monthly rebalancing is performed on the first trading day of each month using the opening price[23] - **Evaluation**: The factor shows strong historical performance, with high excess returns and Rank IC values, indicating its robustness in identifying value opportunities[23][27] - **Formula**: $ BP(LF) = \frac{\text{Book Value Per Share}}{\text{Stock Price}} $[23] Factor Name: Dividend Yield (TTM) - **Construction Idea**: This factor represents the trailing twelve-month dividend yield, used as a dividend factor to identify high-yield stocks[23] - **Construction Process**: - The factor is calculated as the ratio of dividends per share (TTM) to the stock price - Stocks are ranked based on their dividend yield values, and the top 20% are selected as the long portfolio, while the bottom 20% are selected as the short portfolio - Monthly rebalancing is performed on the first trading day of each month using the opening price[23] - **Evaluation**: The factor has demonstrated consistent performance, with significant excess returns and Rank IC values, highlighting its effectiveness in capturing high-yield opportunities[23][28] - **Formula**: $ \text{Dividend Yield (TTM)} = \frac{\text{Dividends Per Share (TTM)}}{\text{Stock Price}} $[23] --- Factor Backtesting Results EP(TTM) Factor - **Rank IC**: 5.56%[26] - **Excess Return**: 9.14%[26] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.19[26] BP(LF) Factor - **Rank IC**: 6.80%[27] - **Excess Return**: 11.41%[27] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.37[27] Dividend Yield (TTM) Factor - **Rank IC**: 5.81%[28] - **Excess Return**: 8.96%[28] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.37[28]

行业观点 方正证券发布研报称，当前煤炭现货价格跌破长协基准价格，后期可关注长协价格对现货价格的支撑作 用。此前该行认为煤价当前价格附近有一定支撑，公式定价的长协价格受影响较小，长协占比较高业绩 稳定性较强。新资金的流入使红利有望成为2025年的投资主线。此外能提升经营久期、回收让利，提升 经营抗风险能力的煤电联营模式，有望在2025年成为市场关注焦点。 方正证券主要观点如下： 投资观点 在低利率环境下高股息板块依旧值得重视，而对中长期资金而言高股息是其投资主要选择，尤其是险 资、社保基金等，新资金的流入使红利有望成为2025年的投资主线。此外能提升经营久期、回收让利， 提升经营抗风险能力的煤电联营模式，有望在2025年成为市场关注焦点。 投资逻辑一 在供需环境、价格水平、行业利润均有望稳中向好的当下，行业高分红股息标的优势逐渐显著，建议关 注资源禀赋优秀，经营业绩稳定且分红比例预期较高的标的：中国神华（601088）、陕西煤业 （601225）、中煤能源（601898）。 投资逻辑二 本周煤价再度下行，至655元后止跌，价格一度跌破长协基准线675元。由于近两个月煤价下行，部分产 地部分地区煤矿开启检修，产地 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is experiencing a renewed verification of its dividend attributes, suggesting a favorable window for investment during this period [1] - The report indicates that coal prices have stabilized after a decline, with current prices hovering around 680-690 yuan per ton, which is expected to provide support for future pricing [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend yields in the current low-interest-rate environment, making coal stocks attractive for long-term investors [5][6] Summary by Sections Industry and Company Market Review - The coal index increased by 4.84%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.26 percentage points [9] - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the coal industry is 10.54, which is lower than the CSI 300's PE of 12.82, indicating a discount of 17.78% [12] Supply and Demand Analysis - The capacity utilization rate of 462 sample coal mines is 96.3%, up by 1.5 percentage points week-on-week [19] - The average daily output of these coal mines is 579.5 thousand tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.4 thousand tons [19] Price Trends - As of March 14, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 681 yuan per ton, down by 7 yuan or 1.02% from the previous week [30] - The report notes that the price of thermal coal in major production areas has seen increases, with prices in Ordos and Yulin rising by 15 yuan and 60 yuan respectively [30] Key Company Announcements - Shaanxi Coal's 2024 performance report shows a 4.13% increase in raw coal production to 170 million tons, while total revenue increased by 1.47% to 184.145 billion yuan [47] - China Shenhua reported a 1.9% increase in coal production for February 2025, totaling 27 million tons [48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company achieved stable performance in 2024, with a revenue of 184.145 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.47% (adjusted), and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.196 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.97% (adjusted) [1]. - The high dividend yield of 6.8% highlights the investment value, based on the company's shareholder return plan, which stipulates a cash dividend ratio of no less than 60% of the distributable profit for the years 2022-2024 [1]. - The consolidation of power assets has enhanced the stability of the company's performance, with coal production increasing by 4.13% year-on-year to 170 million tons and coal sales rising by 9.91% to 260 million tons in 2024 [2]. - Future profitability is expected to double due to the large installed capacity of power projects under construction, with the total installed capacity of coal-fired units in operation at 8,300 MW and under construction at 10,000 MW [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 6.253 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.07% and a year-on-year increase of 23.59% (unadjusted) [3]. - The company’s coal production in Q4 2024 is expected to be 42.717 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 8.26% [3]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 22.196 billion, 19.050 billion, and 19.844 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.29, 1.96, and 2.06 yuan [3][8]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 9, 10, and 10 times, respectively, based on the closing price on March 14, 2025 [3][8]. - The PB ratios for the same period are expected to be 1.9, 1.8, and 1.7 [8]. Dividend Policy - The company’s dividend policy ensures a minimum cash dividend payout of 60% of the distributable profit, leading to a projected dividend yield of 6.8% for 2024 [1].