Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trade System to announce the central parity rate of the RMB against the USD, which has depreciated slightly compared to the previous trading day [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate Information - On December 5, the central parity rate of the RMB against the USD was set at 7.0749, a depreciation of 16 basis points from the previous day's rate of 7.0733 [1] - As of 9:42 AM on the same day, the onshore and offshore RMB against the USD were reported at 7.0698 and 7.0678 respectively, showing an appreciation of 0.02% and 0.05% during the day [1]

（责任编辑：韩艺嘉） 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年12月5日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1 美元对人民币7.0749元，1欧元对人民币8.2376元，100日元对人民币4.5597元，1港元对人民币0.90906 元，1英镑对人民币9.4269元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6754元，1新西兰元对人民币4.0767元，1新加坡 元对人民币5.4573元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8016元，1加拿大元对人民币5.0682元，人民币1元对1.1330 澳门元，人民币1元对0.58145马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对10.8432俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.4017南 非兰特，人民币1元对208.37韩元，人民币1元对0.51924阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.53057沙特里亚 尔，人民币1元对46.4939匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51405波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9068丹麦克朗， 人民币1元对1.3323瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4300挪威克朗，人民币1元对6.00776土耳其里拉，人民币1 元对2.5779墨西哥比索，人民币1元对4.5291泰铢。 中国经济网北京12月5日讯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Yuan (CNY) is approaching the 7.05 mark against the US Dollar (USD), with concerns about the possibility of breaking the 7.00 level by year-end being raised. However, the expectation remains that the CNY will end the year around 7.05, with a low probability of breaking 7.00 [1][8]. Group 1: Baseline Scenario - The strong settlement power observed daily supports the expectation of a CNY appreciation, although the pace is expected to be moderate. The focus this week is on the realization of the "three-price unity" for the USDCNY central parity, which has been maintained for over a year [2][8]. - The baseline scenario predicts that the USDCNY central parity will be around 7.05 by year-end, corresponding to a closing range of 7.04-7.06 [8][12]. Group 2: Right Tail Risks - Potential upward risks for the CNY include factors that could drive a rebound in the US Dollar Index (DXY), such as a hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) stance leading to a significant market reaction. Current market expectations suggest a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with an additional 2.3 cuts anticipated next year. If the December dot plot indicates only one cut for 2026, both the dollar rates and DXY could rebound sharply [6][10]. - Additionally, stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls in October and November could also contribute to upward pressure on the USD [12]. Group 3: Left Tail Risks - Conversely, if the DXY falls below the 100-day moving average towards the previous low of around 97, the CNY may also decline. Potential triggers for this scenario include a dovish FOMC stance indicating more than two rate cuts for 2026, or significant dovish comments from the new Federal Reserve Chair [6][12]. - Other factors that could lead to a weaker CNY include disappointing non-farm payroll results and rising unemployment rates, as well as a comprehensive peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which could strengthen the Euro [12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent acceleration of the Chinese yuan's appreciation against the US dollar has sparked market interest, with increasing discussions about whether the exchange rate can break the 7.0 mark. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - As of December 4, the yuan's central parity against the US dollar was adjusted up by 21 basis points to 7.0733, the highest level since October 14, 2024. The onshore yuan closed at 7.069, down 29 basis points from the previous trading day [1][2] - Since November, the yuan has entered a rapid appreciation phase, with significant increases of 506 basis points and 595 basis points against the US dollar for onshore and offshore rates, respectively, since November 20 [2] - The central parity has shown a narrow upward trend, with fluctuations observed in early December, indicating a potential for further appreciation [2][3] Group 2: Factors Supporting Appreciation - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have been a direct driver of the yuan's appreciation, contributing to a decline in the US dollar index below 100 [5] - The approaching year-end has led to a surge in corporate foreign exchange settlement demand, which has further supported the yuan's exchange rate. In September, banks reported a settlement surplus of $51 billion, and this trend is expected to continue into the fourth quarter [6][7] - The overall export performance has been strong, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in dollar-denominated exports in the first ten months of the year, contributing to concentrated settlement demand from enterprises [7] Group 3: Market Predictions - Experts predict a high probability of the yuan breaking the 7.0 mark in the short term, supported by seasonal settlement demand and a weaker dollar index due to anticipated Fed rate cuts [8] - Attention is drawn to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on December 11, which may influence the dollar's performance and the yuan's central parity adjustments [8] - Despite the potential for short-term appreciation, uncertainties remain regarding the yuan's ability to maintain levels below 7.0 in the long term, influenced by various factors including US tariffs and global trade dynamics [9]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the foreign exchange market dynamics, particularly the outlook for the Chinese Yuan (RMB) against the US Dollar (USD) through 2026, highlighting the implications of monetary policy differences between the US and China [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The market anticipates a significant divergence in interest rate cuts between the US and China, with expectations of over 75 basis points in the US and around 25 basis points in China, which could favor RMB appreciation [1][2]. - **Unsettled Foreign Exchange Amounts**: Current assessments suggest that the actual unsettled foreign exchange amounts are closer to $150-200 billion, rather than the previously estimated $800-1,200 billion, due to the inversion of interest rates leading to increased overseas direct investments [1][3][4]. - **Weak Dollar Cycle**: The USD is entering a new weak cycle expected to last 3-5 years, influenced by factors such as de-dollarization trends, reduced US Treasury holdings, and fiscal deficits, which may provide long-term appreciation opportunities for the RMB [1][5]. - **China's Current Account Surplus**: A robust current account surplus, combined with the repatriation of overseas investment profits, supports the RMB's mid-term fundamentals, with seasonal settlement becoming increasingly important for RMB appreciation [1][6]. - **Federal Reserve's Dovish Stance**: The Federal Reserve's internal divisions suggest a continued dovish approach, with personnel changes potentially accelerating rate cuts, further pressuring the USD and enhancing RMB appreciation [1][7]. Additional Important Insights - **RMB Stability Amidst Weak USD**: Despite the weak USD, the RMB has not experienced significant volatility due to a shift in settlement structures from USD dominance to a diversified currency basket, reducing sensitivity to USD fluctuations [1][8]. - **Long-term RMB Policy**: China's RMB policy currently aims for stability, with a long-term trend towards appreciation to alleviate economic growth pressures, particularly in light of the 2035 GDP doubling goal [1][9][10]. - **Factors Influencing RMB Exchange Rate**: Future RMB exchange rates will be influenced by political uncertainties, changes in US-China interest rate differentials, and economic expectations, with a stable global economy supporting RMB appreciation [1][11]. - **2026 RMB Exchange Rate Outlook**: The expectation for 2026 includes a potential 7% appreciation of the RMB against the USD, with various hedging tools available for enterprises to manage foreign exchange risks [1][12][14]. Hedging Strategies - **Choosing Hedging Tools**: Enterprises are advised to consider different contract types and rolling methods for hedging, with forward contracts generally being more expensive than futures. Strategies to optimize costs include using deep discount contracts and adjusting hedging ratios based on market conditions [1][14][16]. Arbitrage Opportunities - **HKD and USD Arbitrage**: Under the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the USD, there are opportunities for arbitrage, particularly when interest rate differentials widen, and during periods of market intervention by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority [1][15]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the foreign exchange market dynamics and the outlook for the RMB.

2025.12. 04 进入12月以来，人民币延续升势，也让市场对于接下来的汇率走势趋于乐观。第一财经综合多位受 访专家观点发现，在美联储12月降息预期升温、年末企业结汇需求集中爆发、国内经济基本面稳定 等多重利好因素协同下，市场普遍预期人民币汇率短期升破7.0关口概率较高，但长期能否持续运行 在7.0以下仍面临多重不确定性。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，伴随资本市场回暖，人民币资产吸引力增强；"十五五"规划 建议出台，为未来五年经济社会发展指明方向，也增强了市场对中国经济长期稳中向好的信心，为人 民币汇率提供了核心支撑。 升值势头延续 11月以来，人民币对美元汇率进入快速升值周期，12月升势进一步巩固。 数据显示，12月3日在岸、离岸人民币汇率分别收于7.0661、7.0583，较11月20日分别累计上涨 506个基点、595个基点，短期升值幅度显著。 本文字数：2672，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 人民币近期加速升值引发市场关注，其对美元汇率能否"破7"的讨论逐渐增多。 12月4日，人民币对美元中间价调升21个基点，报7.0733，创下2024年10月14日以来最高水平。 在岸人民 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has sparked discussions about whether it can break the 7.0 mark, with short-term optimism but long-term uncertainties remaining [1][10][12]. Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB entered a rapid appreciation phase in November, with further consolidation in December, showing significant short-term gains against the US dollar [2][6]. - As of December 4, the onshore RMB closed at 7.069, slightly down from the previous trading day, while the central parity rate reached its highest level since October 14, 2024, at 7.0733 [3][10]. Market Influences - The market's expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has been a direct driver of the RMB's appreciation, alongside seasonal corporate demand for currency conversion at year-end [6][8]. - Data from the foreign exchange administration indicates a significant surplus in bank settlements, with a notable increase in corporate settlement demand expected in the fourth quarter [7][9]. Economic Support Factors - The stability of the domestic economic fundamentals is providing core support for the RMB exchange rate, with multiple favorable factors contributing to its appreciation [9][13]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has also bolstered market confidence in the long-term stability of the Chinese economy, further supporting the RMB [1][12]. Future Outlook - Experts predict a high probability of the RMB breaking the 7.0 mark in the short term, driven by seasonal demand and favorable market conditions [11][14]. - However, uncertainties remain regarding the RMB's ability to maintain levels below 7.0 in the long term, influenced by various domestic and international factors [12][14].

在岸人民币兑美元北京时间16:30官方收报7.0690，较上一交易日官方收盘价跌29点。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

"十五五"宏观经济展望 不畏浮云遮望眼 玛西高娃 中信证券研究部 宏观经济联席首席分析师 2025年11月10日 请务必阅读末页的免责条款和声明 贸易摩擦压力或将持续存在 中国对美国出口和对非美地区出口 美国在中国出口的占比历史上来看主要受到汇率因素的影响 资料来源：Wind，中信证券研究部。注：截止2025年9月 资料来源：Wind，中信证券研究部 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 2024-01 2024-04 2024-07 2024-10 2025-01 2025-04 2025-07 % 对美贸易差额累计增速 中国对非美出口 中国对美出口 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 % % 美元指数 中国出口中美国的比重(右) 3 核心观点 展望"十五五" ，贸易摩擦可能会进一步常态化，但受益于企业积极拓展新市场，中国出口将 保持韧性，贸易顺差仍然有望保持较高水平。同时，内需有望在2026年年中出现拐点，经济增 长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The export profits of polypropylene (PP) are being compressed due to rising near-sea freight rates and a strengthening RMB, leading to limited growth in export volumes expected for November and December [1][9]. Group 1: Export Volume and Pricing - Domestic suppliers are continuously lowering offshore quotes to stimulate foreign demand, but rising near-sea freight rates and a stronger RMB are limiting the completion of export orders, with expected export volume for November and December remaining between 250,000 to 280,000 tons [1][9]. - Southeast Asia is the main destination for China's PP exports, with Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines accounting for 32.33% of the total export volume. However, the export volume has been declining due to reduced overseas maintenance and insufficient demand during the peak season, with a total of 777,100 tons exported in Q3, a 6.56% decrease quarter-on-quarter [2][9]. Group 2: Freight Rates and Market Conditions - In Q3, the shipping market was weak due to uncertainties surrounding US-China tariffs and a lack of demand, leading to delayed shipping times. However, entering Q4, the near-sea freight rates, particularly in Asia, have increased significantly due to pre-Spring Festival shipping demand, with rates rising to a nearly 10-month high of $540/TEU, a 31.39% increase from mid-October [4][9]. - The increase in near-sea freight rates is putting pressure on export profits, becoming a key variable affecting export orders [4][9]. Group 3: Currency Impact - The RMB has strengthened against the USD, with the exchange rate surpassing 7.10, reaching 7.0796 on November 26, the highest level since November 2024. This appreciation is partly driven by market expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][7]. - A stronger RMB negatively impacts export companies as it reduces the profit margins when converting USD payments into RMB, thereby limiting the negotiation of some export orders [6][7].