2025年11月12日 请务必阅读末页的免责条款和声明 目录 CONTENTS 四、风险因素 十五五转型下的改革政策展望 1个目标，3个问题 于翔 中信证券研究部 政策研究首席分析师 2 一、统一大市场：保持制造业合理比重VS企业盈利能力下降 二、国资转型产投：经济新旧动能转换VS财政资金整体紧张 三、资本市场改革：融资端支持新质生产力VS投资端保障投资者权益 保持制造业合理比重VS企业盈利能力下降 十五五规划建议提出"保持制造业合理比重" ： -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 % 中国 美国 日本 德国 资料来源：Wind，中信证券研究部 中国和其他主要国家制造业增加值占本国GDP的比重 10 15 20 25 30 35 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 % 美国 中国 日本 德国 印度 韩国 资料来源：世界银行，中信证券研究部 名义GDP增速对比 -10 - ...

超大规模市场带来了丰富的应用场景。我们拥有众多的新领域新赛道应用场景、产业转型升级应用 场景、民生领域应用场景等，这些场景为新技术、新业态、新模式创造了理想的试验场地，能让新技术 新业态迅速产业化、规模化，创新成本被快速摊薄，潜在收益不断放大。更重要的是，场景也带来了庞 大数据，并成为驱动数字经济发展的核心生产要素，为算法优化、用户体验提升提供了关键支撑。企业 拥有丰富的场景，可以通过"创新—应用—反馈—再创新"的良性循环，迅速壮大自身实力，在创新中实 现成长。 超大规模市场锻造了企业竞争优势。国内完整的工业体系和庞大的消费市场相结合，形成了一个复 杂而精细的产业链与供应链网络，企业能够便捷地找到几乎所有环节的供应商，极大降低了交易成本与 物流成本，提升了生产效率。同样，消费者需求也可快速反馈到生产端，带动企业不断提升供需适配能 力，实现生产和消费的良性互动。各类经营主体紧密连接在一起，通过产业协同，相互依托、彼此赋 能，构成了一个富有生命力的生态系统，形成了"百舸争流"的生动局面。 党的二十届四中全会指出，我国超大规模市场优势更加彰显。在国际合作和竞争格局发生深刻变化 的今天，我国所拥有的超大规模市场正不断 ...

Group 1 - The importance of rule of law as a key guarantee for Chinese-style modernization is emphasized, with December 4 marking the twelfth National Constitution Day and various activities promoting Xi Jinping's rule of law thought [1] - The construction of a legal system in China is evolving, with the compilation of the Civil Code, amendments to the Legislative Law, and the establishment of laws such as the Private Economy Promotion Law and the Personal Information Protection Law [1][2] - The implementation and supervision of the rule of law are highlighted through initiatives aimed at creating a law-based business environment and reforming law enforcement and judicial responsibility systems [1][3] Group 2 - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session outlines a grand blueprint for the next five years, emphasizing the construction of a socialist rule of law state as a major goal [2] - The necessity of utilizing legal thinking and methods to address challenges and enhance governance in the context of modernization is stressed [2][3] - The establishment of a unified national market is supported by the introduction of the Fair Competition Review Regulations to eliminate local protectionism and market segmentation [3] Group 3 - The 40th anniversary of national legal education is marked by the implementation of the Law on Legal Publicity and Education, signifying a new era of institutionalized and standardized legal education [3] - The promotion of legal awareness and compliance among the populace is identified as a foundational task for the rule of law in the country [3][4] - The call for a collective effort to create a new chapter in the construction of a rule of law in China is made, emphasizing the need for law to become a common belief in society [4]

Group 1 - The core significance of the "9·24" policy shift is to restore confidence in the capital market and among entrepreneurs [1][11][60] - The past decade's perception of "dollar assets being the only star" is gradually being demystified [1][19] - The policy tone for 2026 is likely to remain gradual and moderate, with fiscal policy expected to exert slightly more force than in 2025, but not significantly [1][24][73] Group 2 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technology-driven innovation, which can highlight new productive forces amid economic challenges, although these cannot fully offset the impacts of traditional economic adjustments [1][4][28] - The key to breaking deflation lies in stabilizing the real estate market, which is crucial for economic recovery in 2026 and 2027 [1][33][79] - The experience from Hong Kong shows that when mortgage rates are lowered to be close to rental yields, the real estate market stabilizes [1][38][86] Group 3 - The past year and a half has seen significant changes in China's capital market due to shifts in policy, enterprise dynamics, and funding [2][9][23] - Enterprises have shown resilience and adaptability, enhancing competitiveness and innovation despite facing challenges from domestic real estate adjustments and external geopolitical pressures [13][14][65] - The trend of foreign investment returning to China is evident, as global investors seek diversified allocations beyond dollar assets [3][20][70] Group 4 - The real estate sector remains a significant influence on China's economy, with traditional industries still holding substantial sway [5][31][82] - The adjustment period for real estate in China is nearing its end, with significant declines in construction and sales volumes observed [85][86] - The need for a balanced approach in the "15th Five-Year Plan" is highlighted, focusing on both technological advancement and consumer demand [25][51][100] Group 5 - Consumer spending is being targeted for enhancement through the establishment of a unified national market and increased fiscal investment in social welfare [42][92][95] - The low consumer rate and high savings rate in China are attributed to an inadequate social security system, which needs reform to boost consumer confidence [46][96][99] - The potential for a significant increase in domestic consumption is projected, with the goal of raising the share of consumption in GDP from approximately 40% to 45% by 2030 [49][50][99]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant role of Mangya Airport as a crucial aviation hub in the northwest region of China, facilitating economic development and connectivity through the "Belt and Road" initiative [1][4][10] Group 1: Economic Impact - Mangya Airport has achieved a cargo volume of 469 tons and 884 takeoffs and landings, breaking geographical barriers and enhancing regional economic vitality [1] - The airport's collaboration with logistics companies has established a comprehensive "air + cold chain + brand" service system, enabling rapid transportation of high-quality agricultural products like "Gasi sheep" to major markets [4][9] - The airport has transformed the supply chain for fresh produce, allowing for next-day delivery of goods from major cities, significantly improving the quality of life for local residents [5][9] Group 2: Logistics and Connectivity - Previously, residents faced long wait times for deliveries, but the airport has now established a full-service express delivery network, reducing transit times from two to three days to just one day [8][9] - The airport's initiatives have made it easier for local residents to receive packages, integrating Mangya into the national logistics network and enhancing economic circulation [8][9] - The airport's development aligns with the national strategy for transportation, demonstrating its role in connecting remote areas to broader markets and supporting regional revitalization [9][10]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the significance of a large consumer market, highlighting that Henan has a population of 100 million and over 11 million business entities, which provides a substantial market advantage [2] - The "Chengming Model" represented by the Chengming Food Industry Park integrates production, supply, and consumption through "five chains coupling" and "three networks integration," fostering multi-category champion enterprises and optimizing resource allocation nationwide [2] - The effective market is supported by proactive government measures that enhance infrastructure, streamline business processes, and ensure fair competition, thereby reducing hidden costs and institutional barriers for enterprises [2] Group 2 - The government in Henan is focused on precise actions, aiming to eliminate barriers, mitigate risks, and address shortcomings to facilitate the market's decisive role [3] - Henan plans to continue the integration of an effective market with a proactive government by deepening reforms to create a market-oriented, law-based, and international business environment while encouraging enterprises to adapt to domestic demand changes [3] - The collaboration between the "invisible hand" of the market and the "visible hand" of the government is expected to provide strong momentum for sustainable economic development [3]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in China has achieved a historic milestone, with the annual business volume surpassing 180 billion packages, reflecting significant growth and the industry's crucial role in the national economy [1] Group 1: Industry Growth and Impact - As of November 30, the express delivery business volume in China reached 180 billion packages, averaging over 16 billion packages per month, indicating robust market development [1] - The express delivery sector serves as a vital link between online and offline commerce, showcasing its importance in observing the economic operations of China [1] - The implementation of proactive macro policies and the advancement of a unified national market have stimulated demand and production growth, providing strong momentum for the healthy development of the express delivery industry [1] Group 2: Infrastructure and Service Quality - China has established over 1,300 large-scale postal and express processing centers, more than 400 professional logistics parks, and 420,000 village-level comprehensive service stations, reducing the gap in consumer service experiences between urban and rural areas [2] - The logistics system in remote areas such as Xinjiang, Tibet, and Inner Mongolia is continuously improving, allowing for better delivery of consumer goods and agricultural products to rural residents [2] - The delivery network in key regions has achieved a delivery rate of over 85% within 72 hours, enhancing the accessibility of goods to consumers [2] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The integration of smart technology in the express delivery sector has significantly improved operational efficiency, with the use of robots in warehousing, AI models in sorting, and unmanned devices in delivery [2] - These technological advancements have transformed the express delivery industry into a high-tech, high-value, and high-efficiency segment of the supply chain, better supporting the real economy [2] Group 4: Economic Influence - The expanding scale of the express delivery industry is amplifying its economic effects, enhancing its ability to drive related industries and regional economies [3] - The continuous improvement of the express delivery network and sustained market demand will facilitate smoother cross-regional resource flows, strengthening the momentum for high-quality economic development in China [3]

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China has achieved a historic milestone, with annual business volume surpassing 180 billion packages for the first time, averaging over 16 billion packages per month [1] - The growth of the express delivery sector reflects the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies and the ongoing construction of a unified national market, which has stimulated demand and production [1] - The express delivery network serves as a vital link between production and consumption, facilitating economic circulation across urban and rural areas, as well as domestic and international markets [1] Group 1 - As of now, China has established over 1,300 large-scale postal and express processing centers, more than 400 specialized logistics parks, and 420,000 village-level comprehensive logistics service stations, reducing the gap in consumption patterns and service experiences between urban and rural residents [2] - The logistics system in remote areas such as Xinjiang, Tibet, and Inner Mongolia is continuously improving, allowing for better delivery of consumer goods to rural households and enhancing the channels for local specialty products [2] - The delivery network in key regions has achieved a delivery success rate of over 85% within 72 hours, enabling low-cost and efficient access to a vast market for various goods [2] Group 2 - The integration of smart technology in the express delivery market has injected lasting vitality into effective supply, with advancements in robotics, AI, and unmanned devices enhancing efficiency across various logistics stages [2] - The express delivery industry is evolving into a high-tech, high-value, and high-efficiency sector, playing a crucial role in the supply chain and supporting the real economy [2] - The scale economy effects of the express delivery network are amplifying, significantly boosting related industries and regional economies, while facilitating smoother cross-regional flow of resources and factors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of a unified national market is a significant decision made by the central government, with various regions in Henan actively participating in this initiative during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4][5]. Group 1: Initiatives by Chengming Food Industrial Park - Chengming Food Industrial Park has adopted the "321 production linkage" model, aiming to become the largest hot pot and barbecue ingredient base in Central China within five years [5][6]. - The park has successfully incubated nearly 10 champion enterprises in various categories, leveraging three ecological platforms for integrated supply and demand [5][6]. - The Chengming model has been replicated in multiple locations across China, including Sichuan, Hubei, Guangxi, Hainan, and Liaoning [5]. Group 2: Government Support and Policies - The local government has established a comprehensive service system for the food industry, including policy support, infrastructure development, resource integration, and innovation-driven initiatives [7][8]. - A "chief service officer" system has been implemented to enhance the efficiency of the process from land acquisition to production [7]. - The government has also facilitated the establishment of innovation laboratories and partnerships with universities to support technological advancements in food enterprises [7][8]. Group 3: Enhancing Domestic Market Dynamics - The construction of a strong domestic market is expected to lower production and circulation costs while improving production efficiency and innovation capabilities [6][10]. - The Chengming Food Industrial Park aims to establish 12 industrial parks nationwide, targeting the creation of a "100 billion park and 1 trillion Chengming" food industry super complex [6][10]. - The local government is focused on breaking down barriers to economic circulation and optimizing the allocation of production factors [9][10]. Group 4: Future Development Strategies - The county plans to strengthen the food industry by implementing the "321 production linkage" model and fostering a diverse food industrial base [10]. - The city of Zhoukou aims to enhance its logistics network and strengthen connections with major economic regions to facilitate market integration [10][11]. - The emphasis is on leveraging Henan's unique advantages, such as its large population and transportation network, to stimulate domestic demand and support the national market [11][14].

改革开放前，我国与发达国家的经济发展差距不断增大，亟须突破计划经济束缚，通过局部试点探索市 场化路径。一批批不同形态的"试验田"诞生，从"经济特区"到"虹桥国际开放枢纽"，是我国47年开放史 上不同阶段的"排头兵"。 1.经济特区（1980-）：以窗口试验初步探索市场化路径 我国开放格局并非五种开放形态的简单替代，而是呈现出"老树新枝"与"新树强根"并存、协同发展的生 态系统，推动由商品和要素流动型开放向规则、规制、管理、标准等制度型开放转变。 从四十多年前改革开放到现在"制度型开放"，我国对外开放的大门越开越大，离不开各类"试验田"实践 探索出的一批批可复制、可推广的经验。从经济特区、沿海开放城市、国家级新区、自贸试验区到虹桥 国际开放枢纽建设，每种开放形态都在改革开放不同时期承担着不同的先行先试使命，为我国社会经济 快速发展、高质量发展做出了巨大贡献。 应运而生的五种开放形态 上世纪80年代初期，我国正值社会转型的起步阶段，试办特区是个"窗口"，其核心是打破体制坚冰，进 行政策与市场经济的超前试验。经济特区作为"窗口试验"，其中"特"主要体现在政策的特殊性上，形成 不同于国内其他地区的"政策洼地"，一方面 ...