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西南期货早间评论-20250516
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 03:03
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the relatively low current Treasury bond yields and the progress of the China - US trade agreement, it is recommended to remain cautious [6]. - Despite the impact of tariffs, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and considering the progress of the China - US trade agreement, it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and pullbacks provide better opportunities for layout. It is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [13]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on opportunities to short on rebounds, with timely profit - taking and attention to position management [15]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities, with timely profit - taking on rebounds and stop - loss if the previous low is broken, while paying attention to position management [17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on opportunities to short on rebounds, with timely profit - taking and attention to position management [19]. - For ferroalloys, for manganese silicon, consider virtual call options at low levels; for silicon iron, short - sellers at the bottom can consider exiting, and also consider virtual call options at low levels if there are large - scale spot losses [22]. - For crude oil, consider bearish operations on the main contract [25]. - For fuel oil, consider temporarily remaining on the sidelines for the main contract [27]. - For synthetic rubber, it is short - term bullish [30]. - For natural rubber, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [32]. - For PVC, it is expected to have a short - term rebound with limited upside [35]. - For urea, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [36]. - For PX, be cautious about the upside space in the short term and participate with caution, paying attention to changes in crude oil prices and macro - policies [38]. - For PTA, treat it cautiously and bullishly in the short term, and consider range - bound operations at low levels, paying attention to risk control [39]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, be cautious about the upside space, and pay attention to port inventory and macro - policy changes [41]. - For staple fiber, follow the cost side to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, participate with caution, and pay attention to risk control [42]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to follow the cost side in the future, participate with caution, and pay attention to cost price changes [43]. - For soda ash, the loose pattern remains. In the short term, due to concentrated device maintenance in May, there may be short - term adjustments in the market, and short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [44]. - For glass, there is no obvious driving force in the actual supply - demand fundamentals. Although there may be some repair in market sentiment in the short term, the actual repair degree remains to be seen [45]. - For caustic soda, pay attention to the operation of enterprise devices and the fluctuation of liquid chlorine prices in the future [48]. - For pulp, it is expected to have a short - term rebound in the market, and in the future, pay attention to whether international pulp mills initiate substantial production cuts and the implementation rhythm of domestic consumption stimulus policies [52]. - For lithium carbonate, it is expected to operate weakly [53]. - For copper, consider temporarily remaining on the sidelines for the main contract of Shanghai copper [55]. - For tin, it is expected that the upward pressure on tin prices is relatively large, and it should be viewed with a bearish and fluctuating perspective [56]. - For nickel, pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [57]. - For industrial silicon/polysilicon, maintain a bearish judgment overall and pay attention to the start - up changes in the southwestern region during the wet season [58]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, remain on the sidelines for soybean meal; for soybean oil, consider virtual call options at the bottom support range [61]. - For palm oil, consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [64]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pullback [66]. - For cotton, pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low levels [70]. - For sugar, it is expected to operate in a range - bound manner, and use range - bound operations as a strategy [73]. - For apples, pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a pullback [77]. - For live pigs, consider temporarily remaining on the sidelines [79]. - For eggs, consider taking profits and then remaining on the sidelines [83]. - For corn and starch, remain on the sidelines for now [86]. - For logs, the fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the spot transaction price in the market is weak, providing weak support for the market [88]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 64.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 219.1 billion yuan on the same day. The issuance of special ultra - long - term Treasury bonds and local government special bonds is supported. The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but it is recommended to remain cautious [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but tariffs disrupt the economic recovery rhythm. However, due to low domestic asset valuations and policy hedging space, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The global economic recession risk increases under the influence of tariffs, and the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue. It is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [11][13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. The real estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, but the peak - season demand provides short - term support. The valuation is low, and there are signs of a rebound. Investors can short on rebounds [15]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The increase in demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high. Investors can buy at low levels [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke is weak. There are signs of a stop - fall. Investors can short on rebounds [19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon rose slightly, and silicon iron fell slightly. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is high. For manganese silicon, consider virtual call options at low levels; for silicon iron, short - sellers at the bottom can consider exiting [22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply. The increase in US crude oil inventories, Iran's willingness to reach an agreement, and OPEC's production increase put pressure on oil prices. Consider bearish operations [23][24]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fell sharply following crude oil. The possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia is bearish for high - sulfur fuel oil, while the recovery of global trade demand is favorable. Consider remaining on the sidelines [26]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber fell slightly. The supply pressure persists, but the demand and cost sides improve. It is short - term bullish with limited upside [28]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may improve. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The supply is increasing, and the export demand is good. It is expected to have a short - term rebound with limited upside [33]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The domestic export policy has adjusted, and the agricultural demand is about to start. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [36]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are recovering, and the load is increasing. The short - term upside space is limited. Be cautious and pay attention to crude oil and policies [37]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply and demand structure has improved, and the inventory is decreasing. Treat it cautiously and bullishly in the short term and consider range - bound operations at low levels [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply increase suppresses the price, but the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is improving. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [40]. Staple Fiber - On the previous trading day, staple fiber futures fell. The downstream demand is slightly improving, and it follows the cost side to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. Participate with caution [42]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle chip futures fell. The raw material cost provides support, and the supply and demand fundamentals have improved. It is expected to follow the cost side [43]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. Some devices are under maintenance, and the raw material prices are falling. The supply is loose, and there may be short - term adjustments [44]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell slightly. The production line is at a low level, and the market is weak. There is no obvious driving force in the fundamentals, and the market sentiment may be repaired in the short term [45]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. Some devices are under maintenance, and the supply is decreasing. The demand is limited, and the price may be affected by alumina and liquid chlorine [47]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The tariff issue gives some confidence, but the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to have a short - term rebound [50]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to operate weakly [53]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated downward. The Sino - US talks have achieved results, but the copper tariff issue remains uncertain. Consider remaining on the sidelines [54]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose slightly. The supply may increase, but the demand is good. The upward pressure on prices is large, and it is expected to fluctuate bearishly [56]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose slightly. The cost provides support, but the demand is weak. Pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [57]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, industrial silicon rose slightly, and polysilicon fell slightly. The demand is weak, and the supply reduction is limited. It is expected to be bearish overall [58]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean meal rose, and soybean oil fell. The US biodiesel policy affects the market. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose. Remain on the sidelines for soybean meal; for soybean oil, consider virtual call options at the bottom [60]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil fell, but strong export data limited the decline. The domestic inventory is low, and the consumption is increasing. Consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [62]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed fell. The 45Z biofuel tax credit extension is bearish for rapeseed oil. The domestic inventory of rapeseed is low, and the inventory of rapeseed meal is high. Consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pullback [65]. Cotton - Domestic cotton fluctuated, and external cotton fell. The USDA report is bearish, but the Sino - US talks are favorable. The downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low levels [67]. Sugar - Domestic sugar fell slightly, and external sugar fell 2%. The production in Brazil and India is lower than expected. The domestic inventory is neutral, and the import is low. It is expected to operate in a range - bound manner [71]. Apples - Apple futures fluctuated. There are signs of production reduction in some areas, and the inventory is low. The spot price is expected to be strong. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a pullback [74]. Live Pigs - The price of live pigs fell. The supply may increase after the holiday, and the consumption is in a short - term off - season. Consider temporarily remaining on the sidelines [78]. Eggs - The price of eggs remained stable. The supply is increasing, and the cost is decreasing. The price may be supported during the Dragon Boat Festival. Consider taking profits and then remaining on the sidelines [80]. Corn and Starch - Corn and corn starch futures fell. The supply pressure remains, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be balanced in the long term. Remain on the sidelines for now [84]. Logs - Log futures fell. The import volume decreased in April, and the spot price showed regional differentiation. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force [87].
股指期货将震荡整理集运欧线期货将震荡偏强黄金、白银、苯乙烯、PTA 期货将偏强震荡螺纹钢、铁矿石、玻璃、纯碱、PVC 期货将偏弱震荡,焦煤期货将震荡偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 03:01
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools such as the Fibonacci retracement, horizontal lines, and moving averages, the report anticipates the following trends for major futures contracts on May 16, 2025: stock index futures will fluctuate and consolidate; 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures will likely experience wide - range fluctuations; gold, silver, copper, aluminum, alumina, PTA, and styrene futures will likely fluctuate with an upward bias; rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, methanol, soybean meal, and PVC futures will likely fluctuate with a downward bias; crude oil futures will fluctuate and consolidate; and container shipping index (European line) futures will likely fluctuate with a slight upward bias [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News and Trading Tips - China's economic policies include promoting domestic circulation, urban renewal, and technological finance. Tax data shows accelerated enterprise sales growth in April, with a 4.3% year - on - year increase in national enterprise sales revenue and a 6.5% increase in construction industry sales revenue. The "Swap Connect" product types are to be enriched [7][8]. - Internationally, the Fed is considering adjusting its monetary policy framework, and Powell predicts a 2.2% year - on - year increase in US PCE in April. The US and Iran are negotiating a nuclear deal. The EU is revising its trade agreement proposal with the US. The UK's Q1 GDP grew by 0.7% quarter - on - quarter [9][11][12]. 2. Commodity Futures - Related Information - On May 15, international precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.74% and COMEX silver futures up 1.07%. International oil prices dropped significantly, with US crude oil down 2.31% and Brent crude down 2.22%. London base metals closed mixed [12][13]. - The IEA expects global oil demand growth to slow to 650,000 barrels per day for the rest of the year and has lowered its forecast for US shale oil production for the second consecutive month [13]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook Stock Index Futures - On May 15, major stock index futures contracts such as IF2506, IC2506, and IM2506 opened slightly lower, rebounded but faced resistance, and then declined. A - shares weakened, with a total trading volume of 1.19 trillion yuan. High - frequency data shows that Goldman Sachs has raised its 12 - month target prices for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index [14][15][16]. - It is expected that in May 2025, major stock index futures contracts will likely fluctuate with an upward bias in a wide range. On May 16, they will fluctuate and consolidate [18][19]. Treasury Bond Futures - On May 15, the 10 - year treasury bond futures contract T2506 opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly upward, and the 30 - year contract TL2506 also opened slightly higher and rose. The central bank conducted 645 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2.191 trillion yuan [39][44]. - It is expected that on May 16, the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts will likely experience wide - range fluctuations [41][46]. Precious Metal Futures - On May 15, gold and silver futures contracts AU2508 and AG2508 opened lower, rebounded but faced resistance, and then declined. International precious metal futures generally rose on the same day [46][51]. - It is expected that in May 2025, gold futures will likely fluctuate with a downward bias in a wide range, and silver futures will likely fluctuate in a wide range. On May 16, both will likely fluctuate with an upward bias [48][49][51]. Base Metal Futures - On May 15, copper, aluminum, and alumina futures contracts opened slightly lower or higher, rebounded but faced resistance, and then showed different trends. It is expected that in May 2025, these futures will likely fluctuate with an upward bias, and on May 16, they will also likely fluctuate with an upward bias [58][62][68]. Building Materials and Energy Futures - On May 15, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, and PVC futures contracts generally opened slightly lower, rebounded but faced resistance, and then showed downward - biased fluctuations. Crude oil futures contracts opened slightly lower and declined significantly [74][79][94]. - It is expected that in May 2025, rebar, iron ore, and crude oil futures will likely fluctuate with an upward bias in a wide range. On May 16, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, and PVC futures will likely fluctuate with a downward bias, and crude oil futures will fluctuate and consolidate [74][80][94]. Chemical Futures - On May 15, PTA, styrene, and methanol futures contracts opened slightly lower, rebounded but faced resistance, and then showed different trends. It is expected that on May 16, PTA and styrene futures will likely fluctuate with an upward bias, and methanol futures will likely fluctuate with a downward bias [100][105][108]. Agricultural Futures - On May 15, the soybean meal futures contract opened slightly lower, rebounded slightly, and then showed a slight upward trend. It is expected that on May 16, it will likely fluctuate with a downward bias [110]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures - On May 15, the container shipping index (European line) futures contract EC2508 opened with a large gap up, fluctuated upward significantly, and then showed a strong upward trend. It is expected that on May 16, it will likely fluctuate with a slight upward bias [112].
国新证券每日晨报-20250516
国内市场综述 弱势整理 缩量回调 周四(5 月 15 日)大盘弱势整理,缩量回调。截至收 盘,上证综指收于 3380.82 点,下跌 0.68%;深成指 收于 10186.45 点,下跌 1.62%;科创 50 下跌 1.26%; 创业板指下跌 1.92%,万得全 A 成交额共 11904 亿元, 较前一日有所下降。 行业方面,30 个中信一级行业有 27 个行业收跌,其 中综合金融、计算机及通信跌幅居前,仅有煤炭、农 林牧渔、电力及公用事业小幅收涨。概念方面,动物 保健精选、医美及乳业等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一,思科涨近 5% 周四(5 月 15 日),美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一,道 指涨 0.65%,标普 500 指数涨 0.41%,纳指跌 0.18%。 思科涨近 5%,可口可乐涨超 3%,领涨道指。万得美国 科技七巨头指数跌 0.86%,亚马逊、脸书跌超 2%。中 概股普遍下跌,老虎证券跌超 8%,阿里巴巴跌逾 7%。 新闻精要 1. 李强在做强国内大循环工作推进会上强调:把做强 国内大循环作为推动经济行稳致远的战略之举 2. 最高法、证监会联合发布《关于严格公正执法司法 服 ...
国内大循环工作推进会!港股消费ETF(159735)今日回调,连续2个交易日获得资金净流入
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-16 02:33
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and internal circulation as unique advantages for the economy, aiming to enhance consumption and stimulate service consumption potential [1] - The recent meeting highlighted the need to strengthen domestic circulation and implement strategies to expand domestic demand while deepening supply-side structural reforms [1] - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant gains in consumer sectors, with notable increases in stocks such as Bilibili, Smoore International, Chow Tai Fook, and BYD, reflecting a positive response to consumption policies [1] Group 2 - According to CMB International Securities, the consumer sector demonstrates strong resilience and structural highlights, indicating investment value in the current economic environment [2] - Data from the recent "May Day" holiday shows a significant rebound in foot traffic in key commercial areas, supported by local government initiatives like tourism consumption vouchers, which have effectively boosted tourism and service consumption [2] - Retail sales in key monitored sectors experienced substantial year-on-year growth, with increases of 15.5%, 13.7%, and 10.5% for home appliances, automobiles, and communication devices, respectively, driven by trade-in policies and holiday effects [2]
信达国际控股港股晨报-20250516
Xin Da Guo Ji Kong Gu· 2025-05-16 02:10
Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to rise to 24,300 points due to the reduction of tariffs between China and the US, with the US tariffs on Chinese goods decreasing from 145% to 30% and Chinese tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for a period of 90 days, indicating a significant easing of tensions [2] - The market anticipates a new round of financial policies from mainland China, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, aimed at stabilizing market expectations and boosting investor confidence [2] Sector Focus - The Chinese central bank and other departments are committed to supporting technological innovation through various investment strategies, emphasizing long-term and hard technology investments [3][7] - The US Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% this year, reflecting a cautious approach to economic uncertainties [3][7] Company News - Alibaba (9988) reported a 7% year-on-year revenue increase to 236.45 billion yuan, but adjusted net profit of 29.847 billion yuan fell short of expectations [9] - NetEase (9999) achieved a 32% increase in adjusted net profit, driven by a 12% rise in gaming revenue, exceeding market expectations [9] - Geely (0175) reported a 2.6 times increase in first-quarter profit, with revenue rising 24.51% year-on-year [9] - JD.com (9618) announced that its food delivery business has surpassed 20 million daily orders, marking a new high since its launch [9] - NIO (9866) plans to launch its new model, the L90, in the next quarter, aiming to expand its market presence [9] Economic Indicators - Hong Kong's overall export and import volumes increased by 15.8% and 13.5% year-on-year in March, respectively, indicating a positive trade outlook [7] - The United Nations has downgraded its global economic growth forecast to 2.4% for the year, with China's growth expected to slow to 4.6% due to various economic pressures [7][8]
长江期货棉纺策略日报-20250516
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 02:06
棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花:震荡偏强 宏观方面,国内降息降准等一揽子金融政策落地,叠加中美经贸高层会 谈关税协商取得一定成果,政策面释放积极信号,基本面来看,本年度 国内商业库存去库加速,消费量维持高位或导致本年度后期供需偏紧, 短期棉价受多方利好背景下,短中期棉价维持震荡偏强运行。巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束,2024 年巴西棉总产达到 370 万吨,2025 年预计 总产达到 395 万吨,对外棉有一定压力。国内新疆新棉播种已经结束, 并未出现异常天气,今年新疆丰产概率增大,以及国内一二季度抢出口, 消费前置,远期合约有压力。美棉已经进入播种期,后续 7、8 月美国 天气值得关注,6 月美国 6.5 万亿美元国债到期,中美贸易谈判显得尤 为重要,若向好的形势发展,美国通胀缓和、国内通缩也得到缓和,美 联储降息概率上升,更加有利于经济发展,所以未来还是要看宏观形势 的发展,逐步认证,从整体上,25、26 年度预期全球依然是高产年份, 国内短中期棉花商业库存偏紧有结构性矛盾,短中期看涨,但远期丰产, 限制了棉花上涨的幅度。(数据来源:中国棉花信息网 TTEB) ◆ PTA:区间震荡 现货方面:PT ...
宝城期货资讯早班车-20250516
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 02:06
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-05-16 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 50.50 | 50.40 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.40 | 50.80 | 51.20 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250506 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 50.70 | 51.90 | 52.50 | | | | 社会融资规模增量:当 | ...
FICC日报:盘面再现高股息行情-20250516
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 01:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term correction of stock indices indicates that the market has basically digested the previous policy benefits, and capital sentiment has turned cautious [3]. - The divergence of tariff policy expectations in the short - and long - term dimensions has led to increased fluctuations in small and medium - cap stocks [3]. - Supported by the continuous manifestation of the policy support effect and the trend of capital re - allocation, the large - cap stock index still has continuous upward momentum [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Domestic Policy**: The State Council held a work promotion meeting to strengthen the domestic large - cycle. The Premier emphasized focusing on strengthening the domestic large - cycle to achieve high - quality development [1]. - **Overseas Situation**: In April, the US PPI unexpectedly fell 0.5% month - on - month, with service prices dropping 0.7%, the largest single - month decline since 2009. The number of initial jobless claims last week was flat at 229,000, in line with market expectations [1]. - **Stock Index Performance**: A - share major indices closed down. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.68% to 3380.82 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.92%. Most sector indices declined, with only beauty care, coal, public utilities, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors rising. Computer, communication, electronics, and media sectors led the decline. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets dropped to 1.15 billion yuan [2]. - **Overseas Market**: Powell said the Fed is considering adjusting the core of the monetary policy guidance framework. The US may enter a period of more frequent supply shocks and more unstable inflation, and long - term interest rates may rise. The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow rising 0.65% to 42322.75 points [2]. - **Futures Market**: Today is the delivery day of the current - month futures contracts of stock index futures, and the basis has basically converged. Both trading volume and open - interest in stock index futures decreased [2]. Strategy The short - term correction of stock indices shows that the market has digested previous policy benefits, and capital sentiment is cautious. The divergence of tariff policy expectations causes increased fluctuations in small and medium - cap stocks. Large - cap stock indices still have upward momentum due to policy support and capital re - allocation [3]. Chart Summaries - **Macro - economic Charts**: Include relationships between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][11][10]. - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: Provide daily performance of major domestic stock indices. For example, on May 15, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3380.82, down 0.68%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 10186.45, down 1.62%; and the ChiNext Index was at 2043.25, down 1.91% [13]. - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: - **Trading Volume and Open - interest**: The trading volume and open - interest of IF, IH, and IC contracts decreased. For example, the trading volume of IF was 99,618, a decrease of 39,806, and the open - interest was 250,422, a decrease of 23,251 [15]. - **Basis**: The basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different contract periods are provided, showing changes in basis values [35]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads between different contract periods (such as next - month - current - month, next - season - current - month, etc.) of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are presented, along with their changes [40].
期指:驱动偏平,震荡依旧
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 01:38
金 融 期 货 研 究 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 3907.2 | ↓0.91 | | 2414.6 | | | | | | IF2505 | 3908.2 | ↓0.74 | 1 | 239.3 | 20365 | ↓13325 | 19193 | ↓11402 | | IF2506 | 3872.8 | ↓0.74 | -34.4 | 698.1 | 59965 | ↓21992 | 153318 | ↓11284 | | IF2509 | 3808.2 | ↓0.67 | -99 | 181.5 | 15855 | ↓2926 | 65235 | ↓244 | | I ...
李强在做强国内大循环工作推进会上强调 把做强国内大循环作为推动经济行稳致远的战略之举
国家能源局· 2025-05-16 01:32
丁薛祥主持会议 李强在做强国内大循环工作推进会上强调 把做强国内大循环作为推动经济行稳致远的战略之举 李强指出,要聚焦制约经济循环的关键问题和薄弱环节,在促进经济持续向好中夯实做强国 内大循环的基础。要精准有效帮扶外贸企业,切实帮助解决实际困难,有效应对外部冲击。 要千方百计稳定就业,支持企业稳岗,扩大各领域特别是服务业就业,突出解决高校毕业 生、农民工等就业。要深挖潜力提振消费,推动大宗消费更新升级,激发服务消费潜力,放 大新兴消费带动效应。要扩大有效投资,加快资金筹集使用和项目建设,大力促进民间投 资。要支持地方打造更多发展亮点,通过科技创新培育产业亮点,依托特色资源打造品牌亮 点。要统筹发展和安全,防范化解各种风险,保持社会大局稳定。 李强强调,各部门各地区要奋发进取、改革创新,强化政策谋划实施,加强工作协同配合, 充分激发市场活力和社会创造力,形成竞相发展的良好氛围,在做强国内大循环中开创发展 新局面。 国家发展改革委、商务部和浙江省政府、江西省政府、甘肃省政府主要负责同志在会上发 言。 (来源:新华社) 5月15日,国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会,中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强出席会议并讲话 ...