前言： 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 空单策略： 一篇文章的指引或许有限，但长期精准的分析才是稳步提升收益的关键。或许你见过无数分析与盈利案 例，却仍受亏损困扰——这往往是因过度综合复杂策略所致，而市场本质是"少数者盈利"的博弈。与其 分散参考，不如专注跟随专业思路：建立"入场、出场、风控"三位一体的交易体系，方能实现稳定盈 利。积少成多并非难事，关键在于科学规划与严格执行。 周二（1月13日）亚市早盘，现货黄金高位震荡，目前交投于4590美元/盎司附近。现货黄金价格在周一 上涨近2%，收报每盎司4597.21美元，盘中一度触及4630.08美元的峰值，从鲍威尔刑事调查的突发事 件，到美元疲软和通胀预期，再到全球地缘紧张局势的持续发酵，这些因素共同铸就了黄金的黄金时 代。在全球金融市场风云变幻的2026年初，黄金价格犹如脱缰野马，一举突破每盎司4600美元的历史关 口，创下令人瞠目结舌的新纪录。这一波金价暴涨，不仅点燃了投资者的避险热情，更揭示了地缘政治 不确定性与美联储政策动荡交织下的市场深层逻辑。作为传统避险资产的黄金，正处于前所未有的强势 周期中，其背后的驱动力量值得我们深 ...

新华社纽约1月12日电（记者徐静）受美国联邦储备委员会主席遭调查和地缘政治高度不确定影响，美 国纽约商品交易所2月黄金期货价格12日一度突破每盎司4640美元，3月白银期货价格一度冲上每盎司86 美元，均创历史新高。 市场分析认为，受到美联储风波和地缘政治形势等因素影响，黄金这一重要避险资产的价格继续上涨。 美联储主席鲍威尔11日晚些时候在美联储网站发表公开声明说，美国司法部9日向美联储送达传票，威 胁对他2025年6月在参议院银行委员会作证一事提起刑事诉讼，当时的证词涉及美联储办公楼翻新项 目。鲍威尔表示，检方对他进行刑事调查是破坏美联储在设定利率方面独立性的"借口"。 近期，伊朗多地出现示威活动，其间发生骚乱，造成人员伤亡。美国总统特朗普11日说，美国正在考虑 应对伊朗局势的一系列措施，包括军事行动等"一些非常强硬的选项"。观察人士认为，美国政府强权行 径将加速各国"去美元化"，对国际金价形成较强支撑。 与此同时，由于白银市场供应持续紧张，国际银价再度反弹。分析显示，在当前动荡的市场环境下，避 险资产的需求依然强劲，市场预期黄金和白银价格将继续保持上涨势头。（完） 另有分析认为，鲍威尔遭刑事调查可能导致外 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver, driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve amid a criminal investigation into its chairman, Jerome Powell [1][4] - COMEX gold futures increased by 2.40% to $4608.80 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose by 7.33% to $85.16 per ounce, reflecting heightened market volatility and investor interest in safe-haven assets [1] - The investigation into Powell is seen as a potential pressure tactic related to interest rate cuts, which has reignited fears regarding the Federal Reserve's autonomy and led to a resurgence of "sell America" trades [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the ongoing geopolitical tensions and rising expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts are contributing to the upward trajectory of gold prices, which have reached record levels multiple times since the beginning of 2024 [1][4] - HSBC forecasts that gold prices could rise to $5000 per ounce in the first half of 2026 due to increasing geopolitical risks and debt issues, while Julius Baer’s Carsten Menke acknowledges that although gold prices appear high in the short term, long-term support will come from central bank purchases and rising debt levels [4] - Recent adjustments in the operational mechanisms of gold and silver-related funds have been noted, with several fund companies implementing measures such as suspending subscriptions and adjusting redemption prices to enhance risk management and protect investors [4]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has shown a strong upward trend at the beginning of the year, with gold and silver prices reaching new highs, driven by various factors including geopolitical risks and central bank policies [1][5][8]. Price Performance - As of January 12, spot gold reached a high of $4600.79 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 6%. Spot silver also hit a peak of $84.596 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 17% [1][2]. - Current prices include London gold at $4589.320 (up 1.78% YTD) and London silver at $83.961 (up 17.30% YTD) [2]. ETF Activity - Multiple funds have seen significant inflows into gold ETFs, with the largest increases in the China Universal Gold ETF and E Fund Gold ETF, both exceeding 13,000 shares in recent weeks [5][6]. - The E Fund Gold ETF announced a temporary suspension of subscriptions from January 16 to January 19 to adjust its pricing mechanism for gold contracts [3][10]. Market Drivers - The rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to several factors: 1. Ongoing purchases by central banks, particularly in emerging markets, which continue to support gold prices [7][8]. 2. Institutional investment inflows into gold ETFs and increased net long positions by hedge funds [7]. 3. Retail demand for physical gold and silver, driven by high-net-worth individuals and industries like photovoltaics [7][8]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Heightened geopolitical risks and concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability are contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [8][12]. - The market is also influenced by expectations of U.S. monetary policy, with potential easing measures impacting gold prices [11][12]. Investment Risks - High premiums in gold ETFs and potential valuation corrections pose risks for investors, particularly if market sentiment shifts or if significant arbitrage activities occur [6][10]. - Recent adjustments in investment thresholds and risk assessments by major banks indicate a cautious approach to gold investments [10][11].

21世纪经济报道记者 叶麦穗 排排网财富研究员隋东表示，黄金、白银价格创新高主要受三方面资金推动：一是以中国央行为代表的全球央行持续购金，为价格提供底部支 撑；二是机构投资资金，如黄金ETF大幅流入和对冲基金增持非商业净多头，直接推升短期行情；三是产业与零售资金，包括光伏企业囤积白 银以及散户、高净值人群积极配置实物金银，共同助力价格上行。 贵金属市场开年强势上扬。 1月12日，现货黄金首次站上4600美元大关，盘中最高触及4600.79美元/盎司（截至北京时间17时，下同），今年以来累计涨幅高达6%。白银 表现更为亮眼，当日同步刷新高位，盘中最高触及84.596美元/盎司，今年以来涨幅超18%，在大类资产中，涨幅"遥遥领先"。 多路资金涌入黄金ETF 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监瞿瑞、东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪在接受记者采访时表示，1月12日，黄金、白银价格双双创新高， 或源于美国司法部向就美国联邦储备委员会华盛顿总部翻修相关事宜，对美联储主席鲍威尔启动刑事调查。市场对美联储独立性的担忧再起， 美元指数、美股期指随之走弱，进而导致国际黄金、白银价格再创新高。 黄金的赚钱效应，也吸引到资金的围猎。同花顺 ...

全球央行持续购入黄金的行为构成了金价长期上涨的基石。根据中国人民银行此前公布的数据，中国 2025年12月末黄金储备报7415万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，为连续第14个月增持黄金。 2026年1月12日，亚洲交易时段，国际现货黄金价格延续强势，盘中触及4600美元/盎司上方，再度刷新 历史最高纪录。同期，现货白银价格亦同步上扬，逼近每盎司84美元关口，同样创下历史新高。 市场分析普遍将此次上涨归因于多重地缘政治风险事件的集中发酵。据多家媒体报道，美国方面正权衡 针对伊朗局势的多种潜在行动方案。此外，美国对委内瑞拉事务的介入以及欧洲地缘安全议题的讨论， 均显著提升了市场的风险厌恶情绪，强化了黄金作为传统避险资产的吸引力。 另一方面，市场对美联储未来货币政策的预期也为金价提供了支撑。美国劳工统计局上周五公布的数据 显示，2025年12月非农就业人数增加5万人，低于市场普遍预期；失业率则小幅回落至4.4%。就业增长 放缓，使市场认为货币政策存在进一步转向宽松的空间。在低利率预期环境下，持有无息资产黄金的机 会成本下降，这通常对黄金价格构成利好。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个 ...

据CCTV国际时讯，受地缘政治高度不确定影响，美国纽约商品交易所黄金和白银期货价格1月11日上 涨，2月黄金期货价格一度突破每盎司4600美元，白银期价一度也在每盎司84美元高位附近波动，均创 历史新高。市场分析认为，作为重要避险资产，国际金价上涨受到地缘政治形势影响。观察人士认为， 美国政府强权行径将加速各国"去美元化"，对国际金价形成较强支撑。与此同时，由于白银市场供应持 续紧张，国际银价再度反弹。分析显示，当前白银供应短缺很难在短期内得到缓解。在这种环境下，市 场预期白银价格将继续保持上涨势头。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Prosecutors have launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the renovation of the Fed's office building and whether he made false statements to Congress about the project's scale [1][2] Group 1: Investigation and Pressure on the Fed - The investigation involves the renovation project of the Federal Reserve's office building and potential false statements made by Powell to Congress [1][2] - There has been an escalation in public pressure from the U.S. government on the Federal Reserve in recent months [1][2] - The independence of central banks is considered a cornerstone for financial market stability, and any perceived weakening of this independence could undermine market confidence in monetary policy and the financial system as a whole [1][2] Group 2: Investment Implications - The latest developments are expected to pose significant challenges to risk assets in the short term, with these challenges likely to persist until clearer signals emerge regarding the situation [1][2] - The most direct investment impact may be an increase in inflation expectations, leading to upward pressure on interest rates [1][2] - Rising interest rates could suppress U.S. stock valuations, particularly in sectors and investment styles sensitive to changes in discount rates [1][2] - The U.S. dollar may come under pressure, while gold and other perceived safe-haven assets could benefit [1][2] - Non-U.S. dollar assets, such as European and Asian stocks, may become more attractive to investors [1][2] - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach rather than panic, considering hedging portfolio risks where appropriate and closely monitoring subsequent developments [1][2]

光大证券国际环球市场及外汇策略师汤丽鸿表示，在全球经济不确定性的背景下，黄金作为传统避险资 产的地位愈发明显。随着地缘政治风险加剧及通胀压力上升，投资者纷纷转向买入黄金作避险用途。金 价的稳定增长使其成为2026年资产配置中不可或缺的一部分，她预测现货金价2026年的目标价为每盎司 4950美元。 1月12日，地缘政治和经济不确定性增加，避险情绪蔓延，金价盘中一度突破4610美元，此后冲高后小 幅回落，截至A股收盘，COMEX黄金期货交投于4585美元/盎司附近，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨1.94%， 黄金股ETF(159562)涨1.64%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)涨1.36%。 ...

1月12日，地缘政治和经济不确定性增加，避险情绪蔓延，金价盘中一度突破4610美元，此后冲高后小 幅回落，截至A股收盘，COMEX黄金期货交投于4585美元/盎司附近，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨1.94%， 黄金股ETF(159562)涨1.64%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)涨1.36%。 光大证券国际环球市场及外汇策略师汤丽鸿表示，在全球经济不确定性的背景下，黄金作为传统避险资 产的地位愈发明显。随着地缘政治风险加剧及通胀压力上升，投资者纷纷转向买入黄金作避险用途。金 价的稳定增长使其成为2026年资产配置中不可或缺的一部分，她预测现货金价2026年的目标价为每盎司 4950美元。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...