与此同时，美国4月谘商会消费者信心指数降至86，创2020年5月份以来新低。 美国3月JOLTS职位空缺降至719.2万人，创2024年9月份以来新低，预期略微回落至750万人，前值756.8万人。 彭博数据显示，两年期美债收益率跌穿3.65%刷新日低，日内整体跌超4个基点。 数据发布后，美国10年期国债收益率跌至4.1736%刷新日低，日内整体跌幅扩大至超过3个基点。 ...

两年期美债收益率跌4.09个基点，报3.7561%，本周累跌4.21个基点，周一跌至3.7140%之后持续反弹， 周三美股盘后涨至3.8729%，周四和周五持续回落。 2/10年期美债收益率利差跌1.934个基点，报+49.438个基点，本周累跌2.990个基点，周一纽约中午曾达 到+66.377个基点，周三至周五低位震荡。 周五（4月25日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率下跌6.03个基点，报4.2546%，本周累跌7.22个基 点，周二亚太午盘涨至4.4341%，周三美股盘初跌至4.2472%后反弹，周四和周五持续回落并逼近周三 底部。 ...

此外，随着美国总统特朗普和财政部长贝森特先后在贸易谈判方面释放乐观信号，美元指数延续反弹 ，美债收益率涨跌不一，避险情绪回落和美元走高导致现货黄金暴跌逾100美元。 从技术上看，昨日金价向上测试周内第一阻力3392美元／盎司附近后受阻回落，至本周多空分水岭3293 美元／盎司附近展开争夺，最后重新回到分水岭上方，暂时缓解了下行的压力。但要注意到的是，虽然 金价连续两个交易日回调，但从空间上看还不是特别充分。日内走势来看，上行方面，金价上方阻力继 续关注3392美元／盎司附近，若金价有效突破该位置，阻力调整至3457美元／盎司附近。下行方面，本 周多空分水岭3293美元／盎司成为当前金价下方的第一支撑。若金价有效跌破该位置，支撑则调整至 3228美元／盎司。 新华财经北京4月24日电近两个交易日，随着特朗普"改口"推动风险资产情绪回暖，国际金价在获利了 结打压下自历史高点大幅回落。需要注意到的是，尽管金价近两日回调幅度较为明显，但从空间上看， 调整还不是特别充分。不过，阶段金价波动剧烈，短时操作难度较大。 基本面方面，美联储发布的经济状况褐皮书显示，自上次报告以来，经济活动几乎没有变化，但国际贸 易政策的不确定 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The analysis primarily focuses on the macroeconomic environment, particularly the gold and silver markets, U.S. Treasury bonds, and the U.S. stock market performance. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Silver Market Outlook** - Analysts predict a potential decline in silver prices in the coming weeks, citing failed resistance breaks in October 2024 and March 2025. A successful third breakout is anticipated but requires strong momentum, which is currently lacking. The final low point may not occur until mid-June 2025, with expectations for a significant rebound in the second half of 2025 [1][1][1]. 2. **U.S. Gold Reserves** - There is speculation that the U.S. Treasury may have been quietly accumulating gold, potentially influencing recent price changes. This possibility cannot be ruled out [3][3][3]. 3. **U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics** - The U.S. Treasury market has seen significant movements, with a notable adjustment in tariff policies by Trump linked to the 10-year Treasury yield reaching approximately 4.5%. The yield is now rising despite stock market declines, indicating ongoing economic growth concerns [5][5][5]. 4. **Liquidity Interventions** - The U.S. Treasury may increase unconventional debt buybacks as a liquidity measure, amidst declining economic growth expectations and a falling Citigroup Economic Surprise Index [7][7][7]. 5. **Foreign Investor Behavior** - Foreign investors have rapidly sold U.S. corporate bonds at the fastest pace in five years, raising concerns about long-term sustainability and the need for higher risk premiums to attract bond investors [10][10][10]. 6. **Gold Price Projections** - Analysts suggest that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce in the long term, with current high premiums in China indicating strong demand [13][13][13]. 7. **Market Volatility** - Historical data shows that gold's weekly volatility could exceed $1,000 per ounce if similar conditions from the 1980s recur, suggesting traders should prepare for significant price swings [16][16][16]. 8. **Leading Economic Indicators (LEI)** - The LEI has dropped to -0.7%, indicating a potential economic slowdown. This data typically correlates with the S&P 500 index, but recent divergences raise questions about government interventions to support the economy [18][18][18]. 9. **Oil Demand and Inventory Trends** - Oil demand is projected to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day in April, surpassing market expectations, while financial demand remains at a historical low. This discrepancy highlights the importance of economic expectations over immediate demand data [21][21][21]. 10. **Stock Market Performance Under Trump** - Since Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025, the S&P 500 has declined by 14.0%, marking the worst performance for any president in their first 100 days since 1900 [25][25][25]. 11. **Market Reset Length** - The current bear market has reset over 242 trading days, which is below the historical median of 400 days, indicating a potentially shorter recovery period [27][27][27]. 12. **Gold to S&P 500 Ratio** - The gold to S&P 500 ratio is nearing an 11-year resistance level, suggesting a potential pullback before a significant upward movement in 2026 if it breaks above 0.70 [29][29][29]. 13. **Market Sell Pressure** - The sell pressure in the U.S. stock market remains orderly, with the volatility index (VIX) around 35, indicating no panic selling has occurred yet [34][34][34]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The analysis emphasizes the interconnectedness of various markets, including commodities, bonds, and equities, and highlights the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and investor behavior for future investment strategies.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy, inflation, tariffs, and the implications for the stock market and government debt. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Low Probability of Inflation Due to Tariffs**: The likelihood of a second wave of inflation in the U.S. due to tariffs is low, as imported goods account for only 16% of consumer spending, and goods only represent 25% of the core CPI, with services dominating at 75% [1][17][13]. 2. **Economic Recession Concerns**: The potential for a "deep" recession is linked to private sector leverage during prosperous times, rather than tariffs. Current government debt expansion does not indicate a private sector crisis [1][31]. 3. **Trump's Focus on Bond Yields**: Trump's actions suggest a concern for U.S. Treasury yields rather than stock market performance, especially following a significant rise in bond yields [1][35]. 4. **Historical Context of Tariffs and Inflation**: Historical analysis indicates that high tariffs in the 1930s did not lead to inflation, as consumer income did not rise correspondingly, leading to a reduction in other spending [5][7]. 5. **Impact of Globalization**: The slowing of globalization since 2018 has diminished the U.S. economy's influence on the global economy, leading to a weaker dollar and underperformance of U.S. stocks compared to other markets [2][52][56]. 6. **Service Consumption Impact**: Rising commodity prices primarily affect service consumption, as consumers may cut back on services when faced with higher prices for goods [58]. 7. **Debt Dynamics**: The current trajectory of U.S. government net interest payments is increasing at a rate faster than in the 1980s, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [39][38]. 8. **Future Corporate Debt Maturities**: A significant amount of corporate debt is set to mature starting in 2025, which could impact market dynamics [42]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Consumer Spending Dynamics**: The rigid nature of consumer spending on goods means that even if tariffs increase prices, overall consumption may not rise significantly due to income constraints [13][5]. 2. **Historical Precedents of Economic Downturns**: The analysis of past economic downturns shows that significant declines in the S&P 500 often correlate with private sector leverage and government debt dynamics [29][31]. 3. **Global Economic Interdependence**: The increasing reliance of economies on domestic fiscal measures rather than global trade could lead to greater divergence among nations [60]. 4. **Comparison with Japan's Economic History**: The historical performance of Japan's stock market during its economic challenges offers insights into potential future trends for the U.S. market [63][64].

2/10年期美债收益率利差跌6.174个基点，报+58.027个基点。 两年期美债收益率涨5.04个基点，报3.8106%，08:30微跌至3.7560%刷新日低，01:09涨至3.8190%刷新 日高。 周二（4月22日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率跌1.96个基点，报4.3910%，北京时间13:10涨至 4.4341%刷新日高，随后走低，21:34刷新日低至4.3695%。 ...

M1-M2 同比剪刀差维持上行趋势，红利相对成交额逐步走高 —— 红利风格投资价值跟踪（2025W16） [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 4 月 19 日 [于明明 Table_ First 金融工程与金融产品首席 Author] 分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 周金铭 金融工程与金融产品分析师 执业编号：S1500523050003 联系电话：+86 18511558803 邮 箱：zhoujinming@cindasc.com 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 金工研究 [TableReportType] 金工专题报告 [Table_A 于明明 uthor 金融工程与金融产品 ] 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 周金铭 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523050003 联系电话：+ ...

Group 1 - Gold prices have reached new highs, with spot gold surpassing $3,270 per ounce and SHFE gold at 774.66 yuan per gram [2][3] - The precious metals sector in the A-share market has seen significant gains, with a 5-day cumulative increase of 18.67% [5][6] - Various gold brands have adjusted their prices differently in response to rising gold prices, with some maintaining their prices while others have increased them [6][7] Group 2 - Recent fluctuations in gold prices were influenced by market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy, with a hawkish signal from Fed Chairman Powell leading to a sell-off in gold futures [8] - The negative correlation between gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields has been highlighted, with recent declines in yields contributing to gold's price increase [8] - Factors such as global economic uncertainty, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical tensions are expected to support continued upward momentum in gold prices [9]

美元指数五连跌 10年期美债收益率下跌11.8个基点 智通财经4月15日电，美元指数连续第五天下跌，创六个月新低，投资者重新评估美元的避险货币地 位。美国国债在上周重挫后反弹。美国10年期国债收益率下跌11.8个基点，报4.372%；5年和30年期国 债收益率差上升约8.9个基点，报79.583个基点。 ...

宏观要闻 美国宣布对部分商品免征"对等关税" 据CCTV国际时讯消息，当地时间4月11日深夜，美国海关与边境保护局发布公告称，智能手机、路由 器以及部分电脑和笔记本等产品将不再被纳入此前针对中国进口商品实施的125%所谓"对等关税"范围 内。 根据最新政策，若符合美国《协调关税税则》中所列明的分类号码的产品，将可获得"对等关税"豁免， 其中包括智能手机、路由器、部分计算机设备及电子零部件等关键技术产品。 美国海关与边境保护局称，进口商应在申报相关商品时申报豁免资格。对于已于4月5日后通关或提货的 商品，企业需在货物放行后10日内完成相关申报更正。未结算条目可申请事后汇总更正，已结算但仍在 抗议期内的条目亦可申请退款。 目前尚不清楚这些产品是否仍将适用不属于"对等关税"框架的20%税率。美国国际贸易委员会尚未就相 关询问作出回应，白宫方面也未立即置评。 商务部：如果美方继续关税数字游戏，中方将不予理会 美东时间4月10日，美方公布行政令，进一步提高对中国产品加征的"对等关税"，商务部新闻发言人表 示，中方敦促美方在取消所谓"对等关税"上迈出一大步，彻底纠正错误做法。如果美方继续关税数字游 戏，中方将不予理会。但 ...