- Model Name: Domestic Asset BL Model 1; Model Construction Idea: The BL model is an improvement of the traditional mean-variance model, combining subjective views with quantitative models using Bayesian theory; Model Construction Process: The model optimizes asset allocation weights based on investor market analysis and asset return forecasts, effectively addressing the sensitivity of the mean-variance model to expected returns; Model Evaluation: The BL model provides a higher fault tolerance compared to purely subjective investments, offering efficient asset allocation solutions[14][15] - Model Name: Domestic Asset BL Model 2; Model Construction Idea: Similar to Domestic Asset BL Model 1; Model Construction Process: The model is built on the same principles as Domestic Asset BL Model 1 but with different asset selections; Model Evaluation: Similar to Domestic Asset BL Model 1[14][15] - Model Name: Global Asset BL Model 1; Model Construction Idea: Similar to Domestic Asset BL Model 1; Model Construction Process: The model is built on the same principles as Domestic Asset BL Model 1 but targets global assets; Model Evaluation: Similar to Domestic Asset BL Model 1[14][15] - Model Name: Global Asset BL Model 2; Model Construction Idea: Similar to Global Asset BL Model 1; Model Construction Process: The model is built on the same principles as Global Asset BL Model 1 but with different asset selections; Model Evaluation: Similar to Global Asset BL Model 1[14][15] - Model Name: Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model; Model Construction Idea: The risk parity model aims to equalize the risk contribution of each asset in the portfolio; Model Construction Process: The model calculates the risk contribution of each asset and optimizes the deviation between actual and expected risk contributions to determine final asset weights; Model Evaluation: The model provides stable returns across different economic cycles[20][21] - Model Name: Global Asset Risk Parity Model; Model Construction Idea: Similar to Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model; Model Construction Process: The model is built on the same principles as Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model but targets global assets; Model Evaluation: Similar to Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model[20][21] - Model Name: Macro Factor-Based Asset Allocation Model; Model Construction Idea: The model constructs a macro factor system covering growth, inflation, interest rates, credit, exchange rates, and liquidity; Model Construction Process: The model uses the Factor Mimicking Portfolio method to construct high-frequency macro factors and optimizes asset weights based on subjective macro views; Model Evaluation: The model bridges macro research and asset allocation, reflecting subjective macro judgments in asset allocation[23][24][27] - Domestic Asset BL Model 1, Weekly Return: 0.02%, July Return: 0.61%, 2025 YTD Return: 2.46%, Annualized Volatility: 2.16%, Maximum Drawdown: 1.31%[17][19] - Domestic Asset BL Model 2, Weekly Return: -0.06%, July Return: 0.48%, 2025 YTD Return: 2.41%, Annualized Volatility: 1.93%, Maximum Drawdown: 1.06%[17][19] - Global Asset BL Model 1, Weekly Return: -0.09%, July Return: 0.56%, 2025 YTD Return: 0.95%, Annualized Volatility: 1.95%, Maximum Drawdown: 1.64%[17][19] - Global Asset BL Model 2, Weekly Return: -0.07%, July Return: 0.51%, 2025 YTD Return: 1.59%, Annualized Volatility: 1.7%, Maximum Drawdown: 1.28%[17][19] - Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model, Weekly Return: -0.02%, July Return: 0.36%, 2025 YTD Return: 2.7%, Annualized Volatility: 1.46%, Maximum Drawdown: 0.76%[22][23] - Global Asset Risk Parity Model, Weekly Return: -0.03%, July Return: 0.3%, 2025 YTD Return: 2.16%, Annualized Volatility: 1.66%, Maximum Drawdown: 1.2%[22][23] - Macro Factor-Based Asset Allocation Model, Weekly Return: -0.03%, July Return: 0.38%, 2025 YTD Return: 2.76%, Annualized Volatility: 1.36%, Maximum Drawdown: 0.64%[28][29]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in gold prices and highlights the potential risks affecting the gold market, particularly in relation to U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical factors [2]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - On July 28, spot gold prices fell to $3310 per ounce, marking the first decline since July 17 [1]. - Domestic precious metal prices also saw a general decline, with SHFE gold dropping by 0.33% and the China Gold Group's base gold price at 769.4 yuan per gram, down 0.21% [2]. - Investors are advised to remain cautious following a previous surge in gold prices, with three key risks identified: 1. U.S. Federal Reserve dynamics, where a rebound in inflation data or hawkish comments from officials could lead to rising interest rate expectations, diminishing gold's appeal [2]. 2. A potential easing of trade and geopolitical risks, which could result in funds moving away from safe assets, negatively impacting gold demand [2]. 3. Structural arbitrage in funds, where high-frequency and algorithmic trading may cause short-term fluctuations in gold prices, increasing the cost of chasing higher prices if market expectations align [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and Russia, as well as the potential retaliatory measures from the EU against U.S. imports, highlighting the geopolitical implications on global trade dynamics [1][5]. Group 1: U.S.-Russia Relations - President Trump expressed significant dissatisfaction with Russia, threatening to impose a 100% tariff if an agreement to end the Ukraine conflict is not reached within 50 days [1]. - The potential tariff could have substantial economic implications, indicating a hardening stance from the U.S. in its foreign trade policy [1]. Group 2: EU's Response - The European Commission's trade commissioner stated that the EU is prepared to impose additional tariffs on U.S. imports valued at €72 billion (approximately $84 billion) if trade negotiations fail [1]. - This reflects the EU's readiness to retaliate against U.S. trade policies, suggesting a potential escalation in transatlantic trade tensions [1]. Group 3: Market Reactions - As of July 14, U.S. stock indices showed slight increases, indicating a mixed market response to the geopolitical developments [2]. - Gold and silver prices experienced a rapid decline, reflecting market volatility amid the ongoing trade tensions [3][4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the harsh realities of the futures market, indicating that a significant majority of participants are unlikely to achieve long-term success, with estimates suggesting that only 0.1% will be profitable over three years and 0.01% over ten years [3][5][8] - In 2024, the domestic futures trading volume reached 619 trillion, with an estimated total fee of around 80 billion, leading to the disappearance of approximately 140,000 medium-sized accounts annually [6][7] - The article discusses the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" Act on commodity investments, particularly how it may reduce demand for industrial metals like silver and copper while benefiting traditional energy sources like crude oil [9][10] Group 2 - The article outlines the current market dynamics for various commodities, indicating that the futures market is predominantly long for financial indices and certain metals, while short positions dominate in others like paper pulp and pure alkali [12] - It highlights the potential for a rebound in the glass market driven by policy and sentiment, suggesting specific trading strategies for both long positions and hedging [20][21][22] - The discussion on copper emphasizes the tactical implications of tariffs and the need for a realistic understanding of market conditions, suggesting that the current situation is more about short-term volatility rather than long-term direction [15][16]

Group 1 - Gold prices have reached new highs, with spot gold surpassing $3,270 per ounce and SHFE gold at 774.66 yuan per gram [2][3] - The precious metals sector in the A-share market has seen significant gains, with a 5-day cumulative increase of 18.67% [5][6] - Various gold brands have adjusted their prices differently in response to rising gold prices, with some maintaining their prices while others have increased them [6][7] Group 2 - Recent fluctuations in gold prices were influenced by market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy, with a hawkish signal from Fed Chairman Powell leading to a sell-off in gold futures [8] - The negative correlation between gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields has been highlighted, with recent declines in yields contributing to gold's price increase [8] - Factors such as global economic uncertainty, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical tensions are expected to support continued upward momentum in gold prices [9]