满屏除了避险黄金和黄金股 以及国债。其它全是绿色的。 | 恒指期货 | 恒生科技期货 | 纳指100小型 | | --- | --- | --- | | 24968 | 5939 | 24617.00 | | -1314 -5.00% | -312 -4.99% | -672.25 -2.66% | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | 45655.69 | 22368.23 | 6590.29 | | -702.73 -1.52% | -656.40 -2.85% | -144.82 -2.15% | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX重金 | | 4007.887 | 49.923 | 4016.0 | | +31.937 +0.80% | +0.718 +1.46% | +43.4 +1.09% | | COMEX白银 | SHFE黄金 | SHFE自银 | | 47.435 | 913.26 | 11059 | | +0.278 +0.59% | +3.82 +0.42% | -154 -1.37% | 美股大跌 纳斯达克跌了2.8%了。A50期货跌了3.86%。 每次长假后都要这 ...

中国基金报记者 李智 根据美国劳工部消息，政府停摆导致关键经济数据延迟发布，可能影响2026年社会保障生活成本调整方案的公布进程。 劳工部下属劳工统计局原定于10月15日发布新版消费者价格指数数据，社会保障管理局本计划依据该数据于本月宣布2026年度生活成本调整方案。但劳工 部在此前发布的应急预案中明确表示，停摆期间劳工统计局将暂停运作。 据外媒报道，美国国会参议院10月3日将再次就延长联邦政府资金的临时拨款法案进行投票。如果未能通过，联邦政府停摆或将持续到下周。 古尔斯比：对提前大幅降息持谨慎态度 一起来关注下海外的最新资讯。 受美国政府停摆影响 美国9月失业率等数据延迟公布 受美国政府停摆影响，原定于北京时间10月3日20:30公布的美国9月季调后非农就业人口变动、美国9月失业率数据尚未公布。 美国劳工部长表示，一旦政府重新开门，将立即公布九月就业数据。 惠誉评级在一份报告中表示，美国政府若长期停摆，可能会导致经济增长小幅放缓。若停摆造成的干扰持续时间较长，尤其是同时出现大规模资金撤回或 劳动力削减的情况，可能会轻微拖累美国经济增长。不过惠誉评级指出，短期内政府停摆对经济的影响预计将较为有限。 美国联邦政 ...

- The Black-Litterman (BL) model is an improved version of the mean-variance optimization (MVO) model developed by Fisher Black and Robert Litterman in 1990. It combines Bayesian theory with quantitative asset allocation models, allowing investors to incorporate subjective views into asset return forecasts and optimize portfolio weights. This model addresses MVO's sensitivity to expected returns and provides a more robust framework for efficient asset allocation[12][13][14] - The BL model was implemented for both global and domestic assets. For global assets, it utilized indices such as the S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, and COMEX Gold. For domestic assets, it included indices like CSI 300, CSI 1000, and SHFE Gold. Two variations of the BL model were constructed for each asset category[13][14][18] - The Risk Parity model, introduced by Bridgewater in 2005, aims to equalize risk contributions across asset classes in a portfolio. It calculates initial asset weights based on expected volatility and correlation, then optimizes deviations between actual and expected risk contributions to determine final portfolio weights[17][18][20] - The Risk Parity model was applied to both global and domestic assets. Global assets included indices such as CSI 300, S&P 500, and COMEX Gold, while domestic assets incorporated CSI 300, CSI 1000, and SHFE Gold. The model followed a three-step process: selecting assets, calculating risk contributions, and solving optimization problems for portfolio weights[18][20][21] - The Macro Factor-based Asset Allocation model constructs a framework using six macroeconomic risk factors: growth, inflation, interest rates, credit, exchange rates, and liquidity. It employs Factor Mimicking Portfolio methods to calculate high-frequency macro factors and integrates subjective views on macroeconomic conditions into asset allocation decisions[22][24][25] - The Macro Factor-based model involves four steps: calculating factor exposures for assets, determining benchmark factor exposures using a Risk Parity portfolio, incorporating subjective factor deviations based on macroeconomic forecasts, and solving for asset weights that align with target factor exposures[22][24][25] Model Performance Metrics - Domestic BL Model 1: Weekly return -0.11%, September return -0.14%, 2025 YTD return 3.23%, annualized volatility 2.19%, maximum drawdown 1.31%[14][17] - Domestic BL Model 2: Weekly return -0.11%, September return -0.13%, 2025 YTD return 2.84%, annualized volatility 1.99%, maximum drawdown 1.06%[14][17] - Global BL Model 1: Weekly return 0.04%, September return 0.11%, 2025 YTD return 0.84%, annualized volatility 1.99%, maximum drawdown 1.64%[14][17] - Global BL Model 2: Weekly return 0.00%, September return 0.03%, 2025 YTD return 1.84%, annualized volatility 1.63%, maximum drawdown 1.28%[14][17] - Domestic Risk Parity Model: Weekly return -0.06%, September return 0.05%, 2025 YTD return 2.99%, annualized volatility 1.35%, maximum drawdown 0.76%[20][21] - Global Risk Parity Model: Weekly return -0.07%, September return 0.13%, 2025 YTD return 2.50%, annualized volatility 1.48%, maximum drawdown 1.20%[20][21] - Macro Factor-based Model: Weekly return 0.04%, September return 0.26%, 2025 YTD return 3.29%, annualized volatility 1.32%, maximum drawdown 0.64%[26][27]

Group 1 - Spot gold is currently trading above $3650, with a latest price of $3653.96, reflecting a 0.27% increase, while the highest price reached $3654.96 and the lowest was $3632.02 [1] - COMEX gold futures fell by 1.07% to $3678.2 per ounce, while SHFE gold decreased by 0.71% [3] - The U.S. dollar index rebounded by 0.4% to 97.347, impacting gold prices negatively, as a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies [4][5] Group 2 - The recent optimistic economic data and the Federal Reserve's non-dovish stance have contributed to the dollar's rebound, which is expected to exert downward pressure on gold prices [5] - Analysts suggest that the current fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the Fed's dovish expectations, bond-yield dynamics, and short-term profit-taking sentiments, but the structural bull market for gold remains intact [5] - Short-term support levels for gold are identified around $3600-$3610, with potential further testing of these levels [5][6]

【9月17日现货黄金冲上3700点，受多因素影响走势强劲】9月17日，隔夜市场现货黄金冲上3700整数关 口，COMEX黄金期货涨0.23%，报3727.5美元/盎司，SHFE黄金收涨0.19%。美联储降息预期、美元走 弱、地缘事件不确定性，共同推动黄金走势。 周二，美元持续疲弱，美元指数下跌0.74%，最低报 96.54，触及近两个月低点。美元兑欧元跌至2021年9月以来最低水平，跌幅达0.9%。 数据显示，美国8 月零售销售环比增长0.6%，高于预期的0.2%，前值由0.5%修正为0.6%，消费数据韧性足。周四凌晨美 联储会议召开，降息几成定局。 因美国总统新提名的美联储理事米兰将参加本次FOMC会议，预计公 布的点阵图将更鸽派。2025年全年降息次数指引将在2次和3次之间。 此外，需关注白宫对鲍威尔及其 他理事的持续施压，美联储独立性担忧或加剧市场波动。同时，要关注美联储9月议息会议及会后的季 度预测报告。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

- Model Name: Domestic Asset BL Model 1; Model Construction Idea: The BL model is an improvement of the traditional mean-variance model, combining subjective views with quantitative models using Bayesian theory; Model Construction Process: The model optimizes asset allocation weights based on investor market analysis and asset return forecasts, effectively addressing the sensitivity of the mean-variance model to expected returns; Model Evaluation: The BL model provides a higher fault tolerance compared to purely subjective investments, offering efficient asset allocation solutions[14][15] - Model Name: Domestic Asset BL Model 2; Model Construction Idea: Similar to Domestic Asset BL Model 1; Model Construction Process: The model is built on the same principles as Domestic Asset BL Model 1 but with different asset selections; Model Evaluation: Similar to Domestic Asset BL Model 1[14][15] - Model Name: Global Asset BL Model 1; Model Construction Idea: Similar to Domestic Asset BL Model 1; Model Construction Process: The model is built on the same principles as Domestic Asset BL Model 1 but targets global assets; Model Evaluation: Similar to Domestic Asset BL Model 1[14][15] - Model Name: Global Asset BL Model 2; Model Construction Idea: Similar to Global Asset BL Model 1; Model Construction Process: The model is built on the same principles as Global Asset BL Model 1 but with different asset selections; Model Evaluation: Similar to Global Asset BL Model 1[14][15] - Model Name: Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model; Model Construction Idea: The risk parity model aims to equalize the risk contribution of each asset in the portfolio; Model Construction Process: The model calculates the risk contribution of each asset and optimizes the deviation between actual and expected risk contributions to determine final asset weights; Model Evaluation: The model provides stable returns across different economic cycles[20][21] - Model Name: Global Asset Risk Parity Model; Model Construction Idea: Similar to Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model; Model Construction Process: The model is built on the same principles as Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model but targets global assets; Model Evaluation: Similar to Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model[20][21] - Model Name: Macro Factor-Based Asset Allocation Model; Model Construction Idea: The model constructs a macro factor system covering growth, inflation, interest rates, credit, exchange rates, and liquidity; Model Construction Process: The model uses the Factor Mimicking Portfolio method to construct high-frequency macro factors and optimizes asset weights based on subjective macro views; Model Evaluation: The model bridges macro research and asset allocation, reflecting subjective macro judgments in asset allocation[23][24][27] - Domestic Asset BL Model 1, Weekly Return: 0.02%, July Return: 0.61%, 2025 YTD Return: 2.46%, Annualized Volatility: 2.16%, Maximum Drawdown: 1.31%[17][19] - Domestic Asset BL Model 2, Weekly Return: -0.06%, July Return: 0.48%, 2025 YTD Return: 2.41%, Annualized Volatility: 1.93%, Maximum Drawdown: 1.06%[17][19] - Global Asset BL Model 1, Weekly Return: -0.09%, July Return: 0.56%, 2025 YTD Return: 0.95%, Annualized Volatility: 1.95%, Maximum Drawdown: 1.64%[17][19] - Global Asset BL Model 2, Weekly Return: -0.07%, July Return: 0.51%, 2025 YTD Return: 1.59%, Annualized Volatility: 1.7%, Maximum Drawdown: 1.28%[17][19] - Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model, Weekly Return: -0.02%, July Return: 0.36%, 2025 YTD Return: 2.7%, Annualized Volatility: 1.46%, Maximum Drawdown: 0.76%[22][23] - Global Asset Risk Parity Model, Weekly Return: -0.03%, July Return: 0.3%, 2025 YTD Return: 2.16%, Annualized Volatility: 1.66%, Maximum Drawdown: 1.2%[22][23] - Macro Factor-Based Asset Allocation Model, Weekly Return: -0.03%, July Return: 0.38%, 2025 YTD Return: 2.76%, Annualized Volatility: 1.36%, Maximum Drawdown: 0.64%[28][29]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that gold prices have declined, with spot gold touching $3,310 per ounce for the first time since July 17 [1] - On July 28, domestic precious metal prices generally fell, with SHFE gold down 0.33% and physical gold prices also mostly declining, such as China National Gold Group's base gold price at 769.4 yuan per gram, down 0.21% [2][3] Group 2 - Three types of risks to watch for in the gold market include: 1) Federal Reserve dynamics, where a rebound in inflation data or hawkish Fed officials could raise interest rate expectations, weakening gold's appeal [3] 2) Trade and geopolitical risks, where a reduction in tariff threats before August 1 could lead to a withdrawal from safe assets, impacting gold demand [3] 3) Structural arbitrage in funds, where high-frequency and algorithmic trading may cause short-term fluctuations in key ranges, potentially increasing costs for chasing higher prices [3] Group 3 - President Trump reiterated the need for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, suggesting that even without a rate cut, the U.S. economy is performing well, but would perform better with a cut [4] - The current target range for the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate is between 4.25% and 4.50%, and Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Fed Chairman Powell's reluctance to lower rates significantly [4]

北京时间7月28日晚，现货黄金向下触及3310美元/盎司，为7月17日以来首次。 三是资金结构性套利，技术面上，高频和算法交易可能在关键区间引发短线震荡，若突破力度不足，反复振荡加大追高成本。因此，当黄金作为"唯一确 定性"的逻辑被市场一致预期时，它也将承受价格泡沫的内在冲击。 特朗普再次表示：美联储必须降息 据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月28日，美国总统特朗普表示，美联储必须降息。特朗普称，"即使不降息，美国也做得很好，但降息后美国会更好"。 美联储主席鲍威尔任期至2026年5月结束。鲍威尔领导的美联储不愿按特朗普要求，把基准利率从当前4.25%至4.50%的目标区间下调至1%，以降低联邦政 府借贷成本。特朗普对此不满，多次威胁要让鲍威尔"走人"。 来源：21世纪经济报道等 | < w | 伦敦金现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | 3308.640 | 昨结 3336.220 | 开盘 3317.107 | | | -27.580 -0.83% | 总量(kq) 0.00 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 3345.350 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in gold prices and highlights the potential risks affecting the gold market, particularly in relation to U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical factors [2]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - On July 28, spot gold prices fell to $3310 per ounce, marking the first decline since July 17 [1]. - Domestic precious metal prices also saw a general decline, with SHFE gold dropping by 0.33% and the China Gold Group's base gold price at 769.4 yuan per gram, down 0.21% [2]. - Investors are advised to remain cautious following a previous surge in gold prices, with three key risks identified: 1. U.S. Federal Reserve dynamics, where a rebound in inflation data or hawkish comments from officials could lead to rising interest rate expectations, diminishing gold's appeal [2]. 2. A potential easing of trade and geopolitical risks, which could result in funds moving away from safe assets, negatively impacting gold demand [2]. 3. Structural arbitrage in funds, where high-frequency and algorithmic trading may cause short-term fluctuations in gold prices, increasing the cost of chasing higher prices if market expectations align [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and Russia, as well as the potential retaliatory measures from the EU against U.S. imports, highlighting the geopolitical implications on global trade dynamics [1][5]. Group 1: U.S.-Russia Relations - President Trump expressed significant dissatisfaction with Russia, threatening to impose a 100% tariff if an agreement to end the Ukraine conflict is not reached within 50 days [1]. - The potential tariff could have substantial economic implications, indicating a hardening stance from the U.S. in its foreign trade policy [1]. Group 2: EU's Response - The European Commission's trade commissioner stated that the EU is prepared to impose additional tariffs on U.S. imports valued at €72 billion (approximately $84 billion) if trade negotiations fail [1]. - This reflects the EU's readiness to retaliate against U.S. trade policies, suggesting a potential escalation in transatlantic trade tensions [1]. Group 3: Market Reactions - As of July 14, U.S. stock indices showed slight increases, indicating a mixed market response to the geopolitical developments [2]. - Gold and silver prices experienced a rapid decline, reflecting market volatility amid the ongoing trade tensions [3][4].