（来源：广金期货） 来源：广金期货 广州金控期货 商品日报 2025.11.24 1 热力图（当日收盘价涨跌幅—成交量） | 数据来源：Wind，广金期货 | | --- | 2 热力图（当日收盘价涨跌幅—成交额） | 图模型 | 最全集 | trê | 加度的 | 11 | 른 | Part | 79 | 1 300 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Nets | 周边 | LC2601 | CUNSU | 12 | CH401 | P/601 | 86083 | 90480 | IC2601 | 8 | 8-4884 | 5778 | 76 | -459% | DAVE | 44739 | | | | | | | | | | | | 17 ...

广州金控期货 商品日报 2025.11.20 1 热力图（当日收盘价涨跌幅—成交量） （来源：广金期货） 来源：广金期货 | 数据来源：Wind，广金期货 | | --- | 2 热力图（当日收盘价涨跌幅—成交额） | 曼金属 | | | 发展时光 | | | | | 19 | | | 深圳市 | | CD | D | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 48 | | 타 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | BUNGH | | MASSE | 1494 CABDY | | | @19 | | | | | | | | 75 | | 11240 | | 2014 | 1114 | 第1章 Add 214-201 | | 083601 | No | | | | | TL | | 152512 | | 41.27% | | 0.13% | -2.07% | THERS' | | 8050 | SC2604 | | | | | ...

Core Insights - Silver prices in the London market have surged due to a historic short squeeze, with prices reaching levels not seen in decades, and the year-to-date increase exceeding 70%, outpacing gold's performance [2][4]. Price Movements - Spot gold has surpassed $4100 per ounce, marking a new historical high with an increase of over $90 in a single day, and a year-to-date rise of nearly $1500, or over 56% [2][3]. - Spot silver prices approached $52 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 3% and a significant rise compared to previous weeks [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The short squeeze in the London silver market is attributed to concerns over liquidity, with physical silver inventories at multi-year lows, leading to a tightening of liquidity [4]. - The premium of the London silver market over the New York market is nearing historical extremes, prompting traders to book transatlantic flights for silver bar transportation to capitalize on the high premiums [4]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts from Goldman Sachs have cautioned investors about the volatility and potential downside risks associated with silver prices, despite the possibility of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]. - The report emphasizes that silver lacks the institutional and economic support that gold possesses, as it is not included in the International Monetary Fund's reserve framework and is not significantly held by modern central banks [4]. Comparative Analysis - The scarcity of gold is approximately ten times that of silver, making gold significantly more valuable and easier to store and transport [5].

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Nasdaq dropping by 2.8% [1] - A50 futures fell by 3.86%, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1] Sector Performance - Following the long holiday, the market showed a stark contrast, with only safe-haven assets like gold and government bonds performing well, while other sectors were predominantly in the red [2] - The Hang Seng Index futures and Hang Seng Tech futures also reflected a downward trend, with declines of 5.00% and 4.99% respectively [3] Key Index Movements - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 1.52%, closing at 45,655.69, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell by 2.85% and 2.15%, closing at 22,368.23 and 6,590.29 respectively [3] - Gold and silver prices showed slight increases, with London gold rising by 0.80% to 4,007.887 and COMEX silver up by 0.59% to 47.435 [3]

Group 1: Economic Impact of U.S. Government Shutdown - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the delay in the release of key economic data, including the September non-farm payroll and unemployment rate, which were scheduled for October 3 [2][3] - The shutdown affects the publication of the Consumer Price Index, which is crucial for determining the cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security in 2026 [3] - Fitch Ratings indicated that a prolonged government shutdown could slightly slow economic growth, but the short-term impact is expected to be limited [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - Federal Reserve official Goolsbee expressed caution regarding premature significant interest rate cuts, emphasizing that current data suggests a stable labor market [5] - The Chicago Fed estimated that the unemployment rate for September should have been 4.3%, highlighting the uncertainty due to the lack of official data [5] - Bank of America has revised its forecast for the timing of Fed rate cuts from December to October, reflecting rising expectations for a rate reduction [5] Group 3: Precious Metals Market Response - Expectations of interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar have supported a rise in precious metals, with silver prices increasing over 3% to $47.66 per ounce [6] - COMEX silver prices showed a significant increase, with a closing price of $47.711, reflecting a 1.60% rise [8]

- The Black-Litterman (BL) model is an improved version of the mean-variance optimization (MVO) model developed by Fisher Black and Robert Litterman in 1990. It combines Bayesian theory with quantitative asset allocation models, allowing investors to incorporate subjective views into asset return forecasts and optimize portfolio weights. This model addresses MVO's sensitivity to expected returns and provides a more robust framework for efficient asset allocation[12][13][14] - The BL model was implemented for both global and domestic assets. For global assets, it utilized indices such as the S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, and COMEX Gold. For domestic assets, it included indices like CSI 300, CSI 1000, and SHFE Gold. Two variations of the BL model were constructed for each asset category[13][14][18] - The Risk Parity model, introduced by Bridgewater in 2005, aims to equalize risk contributions across asset classes in a portfolio. It calculates initial asset weights based on expected volatility and correlation, then optimizes deviations between actual and expected risk contributions to determine final portfolio weights[17][18][20] - The Risk Parity model was applied to both global and domestic assets. Global assets included indices such as CSI 300, S&P 500, and COMEX Gold, while domestic assets incorporated CSI 300, CSI 1000, and SHFE Gold. The model followed a three-step process: selecting assets, calculating risk contributions, and solving optimization problems for portfolio weights[18][20][21] - The Macro Factor-based Asset Allocation model constructs a framework using six macroeconomic risk factors: growth, inflation, interest rates, credit, exchange rates, and liquidity. It employs Factor Mimicking Portfolio methods to calculate high-frequency macro factors and integrates subjective views on macroeconomic conditions into asset allocation decisions[22][24][25] - The Macro Factor-based model involves four steps: calculating factor exposures for assets, determining benchmark factor exposures using a Risk Parity portfolio, incorporating subjective factor deviations based on macroeconomic forecasts, and solving for asset weights that align with target factor exposures[22][24][25] Model Performance Metrics - Domestic BL Model 1: Weekly return -0.11%, September return -0.14%, 2025 YTD return 3.23%, annualized volatility 2.19%, maximum drawdown 1.31%[14][17] - Domestic BL Model 2: Weekly return -0.11%, September return -0.13%, 2025 YTD return 2.84%, annualized volatility 1.99%, maximum drawdown 1.06%[14][17] - Global BL Model 1: Weekly return 0.04%, September return 0.11%, 2025 YTD return 0.84%, annualized volatility 1.99%, maximum drawdown 1.64%[14][17] - Global BL Model 2: Weekly return 0.00%, September return 0.03%, 2025 YTD return 1.84%, annualized volatility 1.63%, maximum drawdown 1.28%[14][17] - Domestic Risk Parity Model: Weekly return -0.06%, September return 0.05%, 2025 YTD return 2.99%, annualized volatility 1.35%, maximum drawdown 0.76%[20][21] - Global Risk Parity Model: Weekly return -0.07%, September return 0.13%, 2025 YTD return 2.50%, annualized volatility 1.48%, maximum drawdown 1.20%[20][21] - Macro Factor-based Model: Weekly return 0.04%, September return 0.26%, 2025 YTD return 3.29%, annualized volatility 1.32%, maximum drawdown 0.64%[26][27]

Group 1 - Spot gold is currently trading above $3650, with a latest price of $3653.96, reflecting a 0.27% increase, while the highest price reached $3654.96 and the lowest was $3632.02 [1] - COMEX gold futures fell by 1.07% to $3678.2 per ounce, while SHFE gold decreased by 0.71% [3] - The U.S. dollar index rebounded by 0.4% to 97.347, impacting gold prices negatively, as a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies [4][5] Group 2 - The recent optimistic economic data and the Federal Reserve's non-dovish stance have contributed to the dollar's rebound, which is expected to exert downward pressure on gold prices [5] - Analysts suggest that the current fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the Fed's dovish expectations, bond-yield dynamics, and short-term profit-taking sentiments, but the structural bull market for gold remains intact [5] - Short-term support levels for gold are identified around $3600-$3610, with potential further testing of these levels [5][6]

【9月17日现货黄金冲上3700点，受多因素影响走势强劲】9月17日，隔夜市场现货黄金冲上3700整数关 口，COMEX黄金期货涨0.23%，报3727.5美元/盎司，SHFE黄金收涨0.19%。美联储降息预期、美元走 弱、地缘事件不确定性，共同推动黄金走势。 周二，美元持续疲弱，美元指数下跌0.74%，最低报 96.54，触及近两个月低点。美元兑欧元跌至2021年9月以来最低水平，跌幅达0.9%。 数据显示，美国8 月零售销售环比增长0.6%，高于预期的0.2%，前值由0.5%修正为0.6%，消费数据韧性足。周四凌晨美 联储会议召开，降息几成定局。 因美国总统新提名的美联储理事米兰将参加本次FOMC会议，预计公 布的点阵图将更鸽派。2025年全年降息次数指引将在2次和3次之间。 此外，需关注白宫对鲍威尔及其 他理事的持续施压，美联储独立性担忧或加剧市场波动。同时，要关注美联储9月议息会议及会后的季 度预测报告。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

- Model Name: Domestic Asset BL Model 1; Model Construction Idea: The BL model is an improvement of the traditional mean-variance model, combining subjective views with quantitative models using Bayesian theory; Model Construction Process: The model optimizes asset allocation weights based on investor market analysis and asset return forecasts, effectively addressing the sensitivity of the mean-variance model to expected returns; Model Evaluation: The BL model provides a higher fault tolerance compared to purely subjective investments, offering efficient asset allocation solutions[14][15] - Model Name: Domestic Asset BL Model 2; Model Construction Idea: Similar to Domestic Asset BL Model 1; Model Construction Process: The model is built on the same principles as Domestic Asset BL Model 1 but with different asset selections; Model Evaluation: Similar to Domestic Asset BL Model 1[14][15] - Model Name: Global Asset BL Model 1; Model Construction Idea: Similar to Domestic Asset BL Model 1; Model Construction Process: The model is built on the same principles as Domestic Asset BL Model 1 but targets global assets; Model Evaluation: Similar to Domestic Asset BL Model 1[14][15] - Model Name: Global Asset BL Model 2; Model Construction Idea: Similar to Global Asset BL Model 1; Model Construction Process: The model is built on the same principles as Global Asset BL Model 1 but with different asset selections; Model Evaluation: Similar to Global Asset BL Model 1[14][15] - Model Name: Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model; Model Construction Idea: The risk parity model aims to equalize the risk contribution of each asset in the portfolio; Model Construction Process: The model calculates the risk contribution of each asset and optimizes the deviation between actual and expected risk contributions to determine final asset weights; Model Evaluation: The model provides stable returns across different economic cycles[20][21] - Model Name: Global Asset Risk Parity Model; Model Construction Idea: Similar to Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model; Model Construction Process: The model is built on the same principles as Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model but targets global assets; Model Evaluation: Similar to Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model[20][21] - Model Name: Macro Factor-Based Asset Allocation Model; Model Construction Idea: The model constructs a macro factor system covering growth, inflation, interest rates, credit, exchange rates, and liquidity; Model Construction Process: The model uses the Factor Mimicking Portfolio method to construct high-frequency macro factors and optimizes asset weights based on subjective macro views; Model Evaluation: The model bridges macro research and asset allocation, reflecting subjective macro judgments in asset allocation[23][24][27] - Domestic Asset BL Model 1, Weekly Return: 0.02%, July Return: 0.61%, 2025 YTD Return: 2.46%, Annualized Volatility: 2.16%, Maximum Drawdown: 1.31%[17][19] - Domestic Asset BL Model 2, Weekly Return: -0.06%, July Return: 0.48%, 2025 YTD Return: 2.41%, Annualized Volatility: 1.93%, Maximum Drawdown: 1.06%[17][19] - Global Asset BL Model 1, Weekly Return: -0.09%, July Return: 0.56%, 2025 YTD Return: 0.95%, Annualized Volatility: 1.95%, Maximum Drawdown: 1.64%[17][19] - Global Asset BL Model 2, Weekly Return: -0.07%, July Return: 0.51%, 2025 YTD Return: 1.59%, Annualized Volatility: 1.7%, Maximum Drawdown: 1.28%[17][19] - Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model, Weekly Return: -0.02%, July Return: 0.36%, 2025 YTD Return: 2.7%, Annualized Volatility: 1.46%, Maximum Drawdown: 0.76%[22][23] - Global Asset Risk Parity Model, Weekly Return: -0.03%, July Return: 0.3%, 2025 YTD Return: 2.16%, Annualized Volatility: 1.66%, Maximum Drawdown: 1.2%[22][23] - Macro Factor-Based Asset Allocation Model, Weekly Return: -0.03%, July Return: 0.38%, 2025 YTD Return: 2.76%, Annualized Volatility: 1.36%, Maximum Drawdown: 0.64%[28][29]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that gold prices have declined, with spot gold touching $3,310 per ounce for the first time since July 17 [1] - On July 28, domestic precious metal prices generally fell, with SHFE gold down 0.33% and physical gold prices also mostly declining, such as China National Gold Group's base gold price at 769.4 yuan per gram, down 0.21% [2][3] Group 2 - Three types of risks to watch for in the gold market include: 1) Federal Reserve dynamics, where a rebound in inflation data or hawkish Fed officials could raise interest rate expectations, weakening gold's appeal [3] 2) Trade and geopolitical risks, where a reduction in tariff threats before August 1 could lead to a withdrawal from safe assets, impacting gold demand [3] 3) Structural arbitrage in funds, where high-frequency and algorithmic trading may cause short-term fluctuations in key ranges, potentially increasing costs for chasing higher prices [3] Group 3 - President Trump reiterated the need for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, suggesting that even without a rate cut, the U.S. economy is performing well, but would perform better with a cut [4] - The current target range for the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate is between 4.25% and 4.50%, and Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Fed Chairman Powell's reluctance to lower rates significantly [4]