记者丨刘雪莹 吴斌 编辑丨曾静娇 北京时间2月27日晚，美股三大指数集体走低，三大指数均跌超1%。 大型科技股多数下跌，截至22:42，甲骨文、赛富时跌超4%；美股科技七巨头全线飘绿，英伟达、微软 跌超2%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 苹果(APPLE) | 269.160 | -1.39% | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 206.240 | -0.81% | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)-C | 306.280 | -0.28% | | 脸书(META PLATFORMS) | 641.605 | -2.34% | | 微软(MICROSOFT) | 393.080 | -2.15% | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 180.740 | -2.24% | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 403.905 | -1.14% | 半导体股集体走低，费城半导体指数领跌市场，蓝博士半导体跌超5%，博通、格芯跌超2%。 云基础设施提供商CoreWeave跌超17%，创去年8月以来最大跌幅，巨额资本开支引发投资者担 忧。 多邻国股价一度跌22%，创下2023年2月 ...

2月27日隔夜市场，伦敦现货 黄金震荡偏强，COMEX黄金 期货跌0.47%，SHFE黄金跌0.25%。地缘局 势未有明确结果，美伊第三轮谈判结束，双方会后表态不一，谈判期间资金押注地缘缓和，盘面一度下 挫， 白银波动更大，纽约银盘中跌4%，随后出现反弹，下周一双方技术团队举行技术谈判。地缘政治 仍是市场焦点，短线黄金以震荡市对待。 ...

2月25日隔夜市场，伦敦现货黄金震荡偏弱，COMEX黄金期货跌1.25%报5160.50美元/盎司，SHFE黄金 收跌-0.30%。美元指数反弹，接近四周高位，科技股走强提振美股，黄金原油收跌。美国总统将于北京 时间周三上午十点发表国情咨文，核心议题包括关税、移民、地缘等，短期或对黄金走势有影响。 美国10%全球关税政策于周二生效。当前美政府通过1974年《美国贸易法》122条款绕过国会，全球征 收10%进口关税，限定150天，税率是否进一步升至15%待定，但美国政府不确定性关税行为加剧了全 球经济的不确定性。春节期间，美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》大规模加征 关税的做法违法，这一动作损害了特朗普政府的威信力，于中期选举不利，因此后期的关税政策及地缘 政治动向成为市场关注的焦点，特别是地缘政治事件，一度成为假期期间推动金价上行的主要动力。节 后，黄金预计将在5000美元/盎司上下以高位宽幅震荡的形式，逐步消化前期的过快涨幅，关注美伊冲 突进展，也有待下一轮降息预期的明确催化，建议采取"分批布局、长期持有"的策略，将黄金作为资产 组合的重要组成部分。 撰稿：李琪 从业资格：F3046227 ...

Group 1 - The international precious metals futures prices have generally declined, with COMEX gold futures dropping by 2.33% to $4896.10 per ounce and COMEX silver futures falling by 3.93% to $73.55 per ounce [1] - Spot gold decreased by 2.33% to $4878.89 per ounce, while spot silver fell by 4.16% to $73.50 per ounce [1] - This morning, some precious metal prices continue to show a trend of fluctuating declines [1] Group 2 - Current prices for London gold and silver are reported at 4875.790 and 73.432 respectively, with slight changes of -0.02% and -0.08% [2] - COMEX gold is priced at 4887.1, reflecting a decrease of 0.38% [2] - COMEX silver is at 73.400, down by 0.19%, while SHFE gold and silver are reported at 1110.10 and 19782 respectively, with declines of 1.61% and 5.52% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a weak trend in gold prices, influenced by geopolitical tensions and disappointing U.S. retail sales data [2][6]. Economic Data - U.S. retail sales data for December showed no growth, at 0%, which was below expectations of 0.4% and the previous value of 0.6%. Out of 13 retail categories, 8 experienced declines [2][6]. - The upcoming January employment data is anticipated to show a non-farm payroll increase of 68,000, although there are indications that this may be lower than expected [2][6]. Geopolitical Events - The second round of U.S.-Iran negotiations is scheduled for next week, accompanied by U.S. military threats, including the potential deployment of a carrier strike group to the Middle East if negotiations fail [2][6]. Market Outlook - As the Chinese New Year approaches, there are only three trading days left, and short-term gold trading is advised to adopt a cautious and oscillatory approach [2][6].

Group 1 - The report indicates that in January 2026, domestic asset BL strategy 1 achieved a return of 1.55%, while strategy 2 achieved 1.65%. The risk parity strategy yielded 0.94%, and the macro factor-based strategy returned 1.4% [1][4][19]. - The performance of major asset classes in January 2026 showed that gold led the gains with an increase of 18.48%, followed by the CSI 1000 at 8.68%, and the Nanhua Commodity Index at 8.61% [7][8]. - The report highlights the correlation between various asset classes, noting that the correlation between the CSI 300 and the total wealth index of government bonds was -32.28%, indicating a potential for diversification [13][15]. Group 2 - The macroeconomic outlook as of January 2026 shows a manufacturing PMI of 49.3%, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.5%, suggesting a weak economic recovery [43]. - Inflation indicators show that the CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, with expectations for a further increase to around 0.47% in January 2026 due to seasonal effects [44]. - The report discusses liquidity conditions, stating that the banking system remains "reasonably ample and slightly loose," which is expected to support economic stabilization in the first quarter [46]. Group 3 - The domestic asset BL strategy 1 has a maximum drawdown of 0.23% and an annualized volatility of 2.54%, while strategy 2 has a maximum drawdown of 0.35% and an annualized volatility of 2.64% [20][30]. - The risk parity strategy has a return of 0.94% with a maximum drawdown of 0.24% and an annualized volatility of 1.43%, indicating its stability compared to other strategies [39]. - The macro factor-based asset allocation strategy achieved a return of 1.4% with a maximum drawdown of 0.5% and an annualized volatility of 2.73%, reflecting its effectiveness in the current market environment [47].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing volatility in gold prices due to weak U.S. employment data and geopolitical tensions, with a notable decline in gold prices and increased market uncertainty [2][4]. Economic Data - U.S. December JOLTS job openings fell to 6.542 million, the lowest level since September 2020, below the expected 7.25 million and the previous value of 6.928 million [2][4]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain the deposit rate at 2%, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate cuts since June of the previous year, as it continues to monitor inflation risks [2][4]. Market Reactions - Gold prices saw a significant decline, with London spot gold down 4%, COMEX gold futures down 3.08%, and SHFE gold down 1.48% [2][4]. - The market is reacting to fears of economic weakness, leading to a sell-off in gold stocks and a rebound in the U.S. dollar index [2][4]. Geopolitical Factors - Attention is focused on U.S.-Iran negotiations and the Japanese elections, with Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian traveling to Oman for nuclear talks with the U.S. [2][4]. - The volatility in the market is exacerbated by geopolitical uncertainties, making it difficult to predict market trends [2][4].

Group 1 - COMEX silver increased by over 13% on February 3, with spot silver rising more than 10%, reaching $87.03 per ounce [1] - London silver spot price was reported at $87.080, reflecting a gain of 10.05% [2] - COMEX silver price was noted at $87.040, showing an increase of 13.03% [2]

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices experienced a strong rebound, with spot gold surpassing $4800 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 3%, while spot silver broke above $83 per ounce, rising more than 5% [1] - COMEX gold futures and COMEX silver futures also saw simultaneous increases, reflecting a broader trend in precious metals [1] Group 2 - The current prices for London gold and silver are $4807.040 and $83.170 respectively, with gold up by $147.762 (3.17%) and silver up by $4.039 (5.10%) [2] - COMEX silver is priced at $83.880, showing an increase of $6.871 (8.92%), while SHFE gold is at $1045.00, down by $41.94 (3.86%) [2] - News reports indicate that Iran's president has ordered the initiation of nuclear negotiations, and high-level talks between Iran and the U.S. may occur in the coming days [2] - In the context of the Russia-Ukraine situation, negotiations regarding Ukraine are scheduled to take place in Abu Dhabi on February 4-5 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing significant declines, with gold and silver prices dropping sharply due to panic selling and market reactions to recent events [1][5]. Group 1: Precious Metals Price Movements - Spot gold fell below $4,700, reaching a low of $4,696.01 per ounce, with a daily decline of over 3% [2]. - Spot silver dropped below $79, hitting a low of $78.495 per ounce, with a daily decline of 7% [2]. - The current price of spot gold is reported at $4,719.818 per ounce, while spot silver is at $79.357 per ounce [2]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Factors - A significant sell-off in the precious metals market is attributed to a "gamma squeeze," where traders holding short options positions are forced to buy futures to balance their portfolios as prices fluctuate [6]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced an increase in margin requirements for gold and silver futures, effective after Monday's close, raising margins for non-high-risk accounts for gold from 6% to 8% and for silver from 11% to 15% [8]. - The recent volatility in precious metals prices coincided with a substantial increase in the US dollar, which saw its largest single-day gain since May of the previous year, influenced by political developments [8]. Group 3: Upcoming Market Events - The market anticipates key events this week, including interest rate decisions from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Reserve Bank of Australia, as well as the US non-farm payroll report and numerous corporate earnings releases [9].