当地时间7月7日，美国总统特朗普发信函给日韩及南非等14国威胁征税，随后，他又签署行政令，延 长"对等关税"暂缓期至8月1日。据悉，美国股市当日收盘下跌，目前市场担忧正在加剧。有投资者担 心，今年早些时候金融市场暴跌的混乱局面可能重现。南都、N视频此前推出《连线美国机构话关税》 专题报道，多家美国机构纷纷表示对特朗普关税政策的担忧。 美股市7月7日收盘下跌。 当地时间7日，美国总统特朗普宣称，将从8月1日起对来自14个国家的进口产品征收关税：其中日本、 韩国、哈萨克斯坦、马来西亚、突尼斯：25%；波黑、南非：30%；印度尼西亚：32%；孟加拉国、塞 尔维亚：35%；柬埔寨、泰国：36%；老挝、缅甸：40%。 在美国总统特朗普7日向多国发出信函，表示将对进口商品征收新的关税后，美国股市当日收盘下跌。 目前，市场担忧正在加剧。投资者担心，若贸易战再次升温，今年早些时候金融市场暴跌的混乱局面可 能重现。 南都此前报道。 自4月初，南都记者独家连线美国服装与鞋类协会、美国家具家居协会、美国全国婚纱零售商协会以及 美国全国零售商联合会等多家机构，他们纷纷表示对特朗普关税政策的担忧。例如，美国全国零售商联 合会方面向南都 ...

特朗普（资料图） 据新华社消息，7月2日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"上高调宣布：美国与越南达成贸易协议。仅仅72小时后，柬埔寨政府紧随其 后，于7月4日宣布与美国在关税谈判中达成协议。这两个东南亚国家在美国设定的7月9日对等关税暂缓期大限前，选择了快速妥协。 越南的协议堪称一场不对等的交易。根据特朗普的表述，越南将对美国商品全面取消关税，敞开市场大门。作为"回报"，美国将对越南输美 商品的关税从原先威胁的46%降至20%——但这仍远高于越南给予美国的零关税水平。更值得警惕的是，协议中明确规定：对经越南转口的 第三国商品将征收高达40%的重税。这一条款被广泛认为直指中国产业链。过去数年，为规避美国对华高关税，不少中企通过在越设厂组装 或贴牌再出口美国。40%的关税几乎掐断了这种迂回路径，迫使产业链直面冲击。 特朗普（资料图） 柬埔寨的让步同样充满无奈。这个被中国网友亲切称为"柬钢"的国家，此前面临美国开出的49%超高关税——这是特朗普政府针对东南亚国 家提出的最高税率。2024年柬埔寨262亿美元的出口总额中，近四成销往美国。如此重度依赖，使得柬埔寨在谈判中筹码有限。虽然协议具 体税率尚未公布，但分析 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report 2025 - 07 - 08 [1] - Report Team: Five - Minerals Futures Agricultural Products Team [2] Group 2: Soybean and Meal Core View - U.S. soybeans are under pressure from good weather and potential export impacts of the trade war, but low valuation and biodiesel policy support keep them in a range - bound trend. Domestic soybean meal has high supply in the short - term, with active downstream pick - up and neutral - high feed enterprise inventory days, but there is uncertainty in forward procurement due to Sino - U.S. tariffs [2][5] Important Information - On Monday, U.S. soybeans fell 2.75%. Domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped, with the East China price at 2,820 yuan/ton. Last week, domestic soybean crushing was 2.3322 million tons, and this week it is expected to be 2.3517 million tons. Feed enterprise inventory days are 7.91 (+0.61) days, and oil mill soybean meal inventory exceeds 800,000 tons and is in an accumulation trend [2] - In the next two weeks, rainfall in U.S. soybean - producing areas is favorable, covering most areas. Brazilian soybean premiums have risen slightly recently, and the overall soybean import cost is stable for now [3] Trading Strategy - Suggest buying soybean meal on dips at the lower end of the cost range, and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end. Wait for progress on Sino - U.S. tariffs and new drivers from the supply side [5] Group 3: Oils Core View - The U.S. biodiesel policy draft supports the oil price center, but the upside is limited by factors such as annual - level production increase expectations, undetermined RVO rules, and weak edible demand in major consuming countries [11] Important Information - High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June increased. SPPOMA's production estimates show fluctuations. Brazilian soybean sales for 2024/25 and 2025/26 have reached certain percentages of expected production. Last week, the total inventory of the three major oils increased to 2.2544 million tons [7] - On Monday, domestic oils fluctuated. The EPA policy is favorable, but there are still bearish factors in Southeast Asian palm oil production. Pay attention to the U.S. biodiesel policy hearing on July 8 - 9 and production [8] Trading Strategy - View the oil market as range - bound [11] Group 4: Sugar Core View - The domestic sugar price may continue to decline due to low - price and small - quantity July contract delivery of raw sugar, high import profit after the decline of the external market price, and increased Brazilian exports to China in June [14] Important Information - On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices rose and then fell. The September contract closed at 5,754 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 0.26%. Spot prices of various sugar groups decreased. In June, Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar, with an increase to China [13] Trading Strategy - The sugar price may continue to decline [14] Group 5: Cotton Core View - Short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate. The U.S. cotton planting area estimate is higher than expected, while in China, Sino - U.S. negotiation expectations support prices, but the strong basis is not conducive to downstream consumption and inventory reduction [17] Important Information - On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices continued to fluctuate. The September contract closed at 13,760 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.15%. In May 2025, China imported 40,000 tons of cotton, with a significant year - on - year decrease [16] Trading Strategy - Focus on the results of Sino - U.S. negotiations [17] Group 6: Eggs Core View - The supply of eggs is large, and demand is cautious. The seasonal price increase is delayed, but the market has expectations of a price increase, leading to stagnant chicken culling. In the short - term, peak - season contracts are supported by expectations, while in the medium - term, the focus may return to supply and high premiums [20] Important Information - Most egg prices in the country declined. The main - producing area average price dropped 0.06 yuan to 2.54 yuan/jin. Supply growth is limited, and downstream sales are slow [19] Trading Strategy - Short - term: observe or conduct short - term operations; medium - term: wait for a rebound to short post - festival contracts [20] Group 7: Pigs Core View - Since late June, the spot price of pigs has rebounded, showing seasonal supply reduction. The second - fattening space can support the price, but in the medium - term, there are pressures from post - poned supply and hedging [23] Important Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices showed mixed trends. Recently, the price decline has led to stronger price - holding sentiment among farmers, and the national pig price may stop falling and some areas may see a small increase [22] Trading Strategy - Short - term long positions may still have space, but in the medium - term, consider supply postponement and hedging pressure [23]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of new tariffs by Trump on Japan, South Korea, South Africa, and four other countries has reignited concerns over trade tensions, leading to declines in both U.S. stocks and bonds, as well as significant depreciation in emerging market currencies [1][2]. Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping by 49.37 points (0.79%) to close at 6229.98 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 422.17 points (0.94%) to 44406.36 points [3][8]. - The Nasdaq Composite Index also saw a decline, closing down 188.59 points (0.92%) at 20412.52 points [4]. - The Russell 2000 Index fell by 1.55% to 2214.23 points [5]. - The VIX, a measure of market volatility, increased by 1.77% to 17.79 [6]. Sector Performance - The biotechnology ETF dropped by 1.45%, while the semiconductor ETF fell by 1.36%. Other sectors such as global airlines and banking also saw declines of around 1.29% [7]. - The "Magnificent 7" tech stocks index decreased by 1.03%, with Tesla experiencing a notable drop of 6.79% [10]. Currency and Commodity Movements - Emerging market currencies faced their largest decline since April, with the Colombian, Brazilian, and Chilean currencies each dropping over 1.2% [1]. - The U.S. dollar strengthened, with the ICE dollar index rising by 0.31% to 97.479 points [20]. - Gold prices experienced a V-shaped reversal, initially dropping below $3300 before stabilizing [26]. International Market Impact - The European stock indices showed mixed results, with the Eurozone STOXX 50 index rising by 1.00% to 5341.54 points, while the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.19% [12][13]. - Oil prices fluctuated, with WTI crude oil futures closing up nearly 1.4% at $67.93 per barrel [25].

当地时间7日，美国总统特朗普发信函给日韩及南非等14国威胁征税，随后，他又签署行政令，延长"对等关税"暂缓期至8月1日。 特朗普公开致信14国威胁征税 当地时间7日，美国总统特朗普宣称，将从8月1日起对来自14个国家的进口产品征收关税： 日本、韩国、哈萨克斯坦、马来西亚、突尼斯：25% 波黑、南非：30% 印度尼西亚：32% 孟加拉国、塞尔维亚：35% 柬埔寨、泰国：36% 3个月来，美国就加征所谓"对等关税"与多个贸易对象进行谈判，但进度显著不及美方预期。目前仅与英国、越南达成贸易协议，但协议细节仍待敲定，与 欧盟、日本、韩国、印度等的谈判进展艰难。 老挝、缅甸：40% 特朗普：若提高对美关税，将追加同等幅度 特朗普当天在自己创立的"真实社交"网站上发布他写给日本首相石破茂和韩国总统李在明的信，表示新关税将不包括其他行业关税。在这两封内容几乎完 全相同的信中，特朗普写道："请理解，25%这一数字远远低于消除我们与贵国之间贸易逆差所需的水平。" 特朗普警告称，如果日韩两国以提高关税作为回应，美国也将在25%的基础上再提高同等额度的关税。 特朗普写道："如你所知，如果日本（韩国）或贵国境内的企业决定在美国境内建 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump indicates openness to delaying the implementation of tariffs set to take effect on August 1, depending on suggestions from other countries [1] Group 1 - The effective date for the new tariffs is August 1, marking a new phase in the trade war initiated by Trump earlier this year [1] - Trump has communicated to trade partners, including Japan and South Korea, about the significant increase in tariffs starting August 1 [1] - The initial deadline for negotiations was set for April 9, which was later moved to July 9 following market turmoil, earning Trump the nickname "TACO" (Trump Always Comes Out) [1]

周一（7月7日），美股低开低收，三大指数均录得6月中旬以来最差单日表现。 截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.94%，报44,406.36点；标普500指数跌0.79%，报6,229.98点； 纳斯达克综合指数跌0.92%，报20,412.52点。 尾盘时，特朗普又表示，将自8月1日起对所有哈萨克斯坦和马来西亚的输美产品征收25%的 关税，对所有南非输美产品征收30%关税，对所有老挝和缅甸的输美产品征收40%关税。 据央视新闻报道，白宫表示，还有12个国家将收到有关贸易的信函，信函内容将在社交媒体 平台上发布。特朗普将签署行政命令，将原定于7月的关税谈判截止日期推迟至8月1日。 City Index分析师Fawad Razaqzada评论道："投资者应警惕头条新闻带来的风险。最后一刻 达成协议的可能性很高，但贸易紧张局势再度升级的可能性也很高。" 蒙特利尔银行资本市场的报告写道："随着贸易战重新成为市场关注的焦点，美国国债收益率 周一大幅上涨，这一走势与提高关税可能带来通胀反弹的影响一致。" 热门股表现 | 名称 | | 量新价 | 瑞联视 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

巴西总统抨击特朗普关税威胁 智通财经7月8日电，据CCTV国际时讯报道，巴西总统卢拉当地时间7月7日在里约热内卢金砖国家峰会 后的记者会上，严词批评美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体威胁加征关税的行为"极不负责任"，并强调各国 有权采取对等措施。特朗普当地时间7月6日通过社交平台指责金砖国家推行所谓"反美政策"，并威胁对 其成员国加征10%的新关税。中国外交部发言人7月7日对此表示，贸易战、关税战没有赢家，保护主义 没有出路。 ...

Domestic News - The National Development and Reform Commission and three other departments aim to have over 100,000 high-power charging facilities nationwide by the end of 2027 [3] - China's central bank reported that as of the end of June, the country's gold reserves stood at 73.9 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons), marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [3] - Changxin Storage, a domestic DRAM memory chip manufacturer, has initiated the listing guidance process [3] International News - Trump announced plans to impose an additional 10% tariff on countries aligning with anti-American policies in BRICS, with a formal letter expected to be sent on Monday [2][3] - The EU reported good progress in trade negotiations with the US [2] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen is set to announce multiple trade-related updates within the next 48 hours [2] - Tesla's stock fell over 7% amid investor concerns following Musk's announcement of forming a new political party [3]

7月7日这天，美国参议院要干件震撼全球的事——给中印扣上500%能源关税的帽子。 说来也怪，前几天还在贸易上给中国递橄榄枝的特朗普，转眼就拍板同意了这个"要命"的惩罚。 这葫芦里卖的啥药？中印又打算怎么接招？ 作者：含 翻脸比翻书还快的政治把戏 特朗普又变脸了。前脚刚在贸易问题上示好，后脚就威胁征收500%重税。这种朝令夕改的背后，其实是选举政治的需要——支持率跌到负10%的特朗普， 急需用强硬姿态给基本盘打鸡血。 格雷厄姆还特意透露，这个提议是他和特朗普一起打高尔夫球时聊出来的，特朗普当场就拍板："是时候推进你的法案了。" 这种随意性让人哭笑不得。一个可能影响全球经济的重大决策，就在球场上谈笑间敲定了。不过，仔细想想也不奇怪，特朗普本来就是"推特治国"的主，什 么大事都能在社交媒体上宣布，现在改成高尔夫球场决策，也算是与时俱进了。 不过，这种看似矛盾的操作，背后有着更深的地缘政治算盘。 美国那点"联俄制华"的小算盘 美国到底想干什么？说白了，就是想拉拢俄罗斯，然后联手围堵中国这个"眼中钉"。看到中俄能源合作越来越紧密，华盛顿那帮政客就坐不住了，想用关税 大棒把这条纽带给敲断。 前言 你说这事儿有多荒诞？就在 ...