Core Viewpoint - Nvidia reported third-quarter results that significantly exceeded market expectations in terms of revenue, profit, and outlook for the next quarter, while CEO Jensen Huang dismissed the "AI bubble" narrative [1] Group 1: Nvidia's Performance - Nvidia's third-quarter revenue and profit were notably higher than market forecasts, leading to investor optimism [1] - CEO Jensen Huang defended the company's position against claims of an AI bubble [1] Group 2: Criticism from Michael Burry - Michael Burry expressed skepticism about Nvidia's third-quarter performance, suggesting that the company's accounting practices may misrepresent profitability [1] - Burry criticized the notion that longer GPU lifespans justify extended depreciation periods, arguing that usage does not equate to profitability [1] - He provided an analogy involving airlines retaining old planes to illustrate that increased usage does not guarantee financial success [1] Group 3: AI Demand Concerns - Burry warned that the actual end-user demand for AI is significantly lower than reported by major tech companies [2] - He accused several companies, including Microsoft and Nvidia, of questionable revenue recognition practices, implying that reported growth may not reflect true market demand [2] - Burry characterized the funding for AI growth as largely coming from dealers, creating a self-reinforcing cycle rather than sustainable adoption [2] Group 4: Burry's Investment Strategy - Michael Burry is known for his contrarian investment approach and has previously achieved significant profits by shorting the market during the 2008 financial crisis [3] - After a period of absence from the public eye, Burry returned to express concerns about AI-driven market valuations and disclosed short positions in Nvidia and Palantir [3] - Recently, Burry announced the liquidation of his fund and withdrew registration from the SEC, hinting at a potential transition to a family office structure [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on November 24, 2025. Index futures, gold, silver, copper, alumina, nickel, tin, rebar, methanol futures are likely to oscillate strongly; ten - year Treasury bond futures will probably oscillate widely; aluminum, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, PVC, and glass futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate; thirty - year Treasury bond futures, coking coal, soda ash, crude oil, fuel oil, PTA, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and natural rubber futures are likely to oscillate weakly; lithium carbonate futures will probably oscillate weakly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: On November 24, 2025, index futures are likely to oscillate strongly. For IF2512, resistance levels are 4457 and 4511 points, and support levels are 4400 and 4369 points; for IH2512, resistance levels are 2968 and 2994 points, and support levels are 2979 and 2963 points; for IC2512, resistance levels are 6872 and 6970 points, and support levels are 6700 and 6622 points; for IM2512, resistance levels are 7116 and 7211 points, and support levels are 6956 and 6900 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2512 is likely to oscillate widely on November 24, 2025, with support levels at 108.36 and 108.31 yuan, and resistance levels at 108.54 and 108.59 yuan. The thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 115.4 and 115.2 yuan, and resistance levels at 116.0 and 116.1 yuan [2][3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the gold futures main contract AU2602 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels of 939.6 and 945.5 yuan/gram, with support levels at 930.0 and 926.9 yuan/gram. The silver futures main contract AG2602 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels of 1244 and 12163 yuan/kg, with support levels at 11680 and 11649 yuan/kg [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, alumina, nickel, and tin futures are likely to oscillate strongly; aluminum futures are likely to oscillate and consolidate. For example, the copper futures main contract CU2601 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels of 86500 and 86800 yuan/ton, with support levels at 85600 and 85200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Crude oil, soda ash, fuel oil, PTA futures are likely to oscillate weakly; lithium carbonate futures are likely to oscillate weakly. For example, the crude oil futures main contract SC2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and test support levels of 441 and 433 yuan/barrel, with resistance levels at 450 and 453 yuan/barrel [3][4]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil futures are likely to oscillate weakly [4][6]. 3.2 Macro News and Trading Tips - **International Events**: The 20th G20 Leaders' Summit was held in Johannesburg, South Africa. China announced relevant initiatives, and leaders had bilateral meetings. The US is promoting a peace plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but negotiations have not reached an agreement [8][9][13]. - **Domestic Economic Data**: From January to October, the actual use of foreign capital in China was 621.93 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. In October, the total social electricity consumption was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [10][12]. - **Domestic Policies**: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission will support enterprises in Xiongan New Area. The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development promotes urban renewal and urban management in communities. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology conducts typical case collection [10]. 3.3 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On November 21, 2025, index futures showed a weak downward trend. Multiple factors such as the decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about the AI bubble led to the recent market correction, but Chinese assets are still expected to have a "slow bull" [18][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On November 21, 2025, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, and the short - term downward pressure on the ten - year Treasury bond futures slightly increased [43]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On November 21, 2025, gold and silver futures showed a downward trend. The short - term downward pressure increased, but in November, they are expected to oscillate strongly [49][55]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Most base metal futures showed a downward trend on November 21, 2025, with different degrees of short - term downward pressure [60][64][72]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Energy and chemical futures showed different trends on November 21, 2025. For example, lithium carbonate futures dropped significantly, and the short - term downward pressure increased [80]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Agricultural futures showed a weak downward trend on November 21, 2025, with different degrees of short - term downward pressure [125][127][130].

策 略 研 究 策 3、 市场情绪走弱或难在短期扭转，建议控制仓位等待布局机会。 4、 财政发力或是未来支撑美国经济的主要手段。 5、泛能源的配置更多是应对美国 AI 投资预期过热，建议以中短 期交易为主。 6、 长期看好保险，反内卷行业，中概互联网，军贸。 2025 年 11 月 24 日 防御当先，静候良机——周观点 团队成员 投资要点： 近期观点 略 定 期 报 告 1、 强非农和联储放鸽的组合不合逻辑，交易降息致使美国下跌 或是未来一个季度的常态。 2、 科技革命进程或难免"泡沫破灭"时刻，重点是关注科技对 于需求是否构成正向作用。 分析师： 李浩(S0210524050003) lh30530@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 李刘魁(S0210524050006) llk30550@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、尝试寻找新合力——2025.11.17 2、美国政府最长停摆结束——2025.11.17 3、市场状态高频数据库——11 月第 2 周—— 2025.11.16 风险提示 全球制造业复苏受阻；中美关系改善不及预期；美国地产市场不 健康 证 券 研 究 报 告 华福证券 诚信专业发现 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains its core judgment on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path despite the delay in the September employment report, predicting a 25 basis point rate cut in December, followed by two additional cuts in March and June 2026, ultimately lowering the federal funds rate to a terminal level of 3%-3.25% [1][2] Monetary Policy Outlook - The upcoming December 10th rate cut decision is almost certain, with market focus shifting from "whether to cut" to the policy path and economic landing shape post-cut [2] - Economic growth in the U.S. is expected to accelerate to a range of 2%-2.5% in 2026, with the unemployment rate stabilizing slightly above the September level of 4.44% [2] Inflation Outlook - Goldman Sachs sees limited upside risks for further rate cuts based on optimistic interpretations of recent inflation data, with core PCE inflation remaining around 2.8% in September [3] - The baseline scenario anticipates a slowdown in the easing pace in the first half of 2026, with potential pauses in January and additional cuts in March and June to ensure rates return to neutral levels [3] Labor Market Concerns - Despite a strong non-farm payroll increase of 119,000, there are growing downside risks in the labor market, with potential employment growth trends estimated at only 39,000 [4] - The unemployment rate for college graduates aged 25 and older has risen by 1 percentage point to 2.8%, while the rate for graduates aged 20 to 24 has climbed to 8.5%, indicating a deterioration in job opportunities for this key demographic [4] - The impact of AI and efficiency improvements may disproportionately affect consumer spending, potentially prompting the Fed to consider more rate cuts in the future [4] Market Valuation - Despite the absence of excess spending from a fundamental perspective, the stock market has already priced in these expectations, leading to forecasts of lower returns for U.S. equities over the next decade compared to historical averages [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the A-share market are influenced by global market trends, particularly concerns over the "AI bubble," expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, and cautious investor sentiment, although the fundamental factors supporting the Chinese stock market's upward trend remain unchanged [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 24, 2025, the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index increased by 0.20%, with notable gains from stocks such as Binjiang Group (up 4.64%) and China National Materials International (up 3.06%) [1]. - The CSI 500 Quality Growth ETF (560500) saw a slight increase of 0.09%, with a trading volume of 60.89 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.14% [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Huatai Securities reported that recent debates around AI narratives and tightening liquidity have contributed to increased market volatility, but the current market adjustment shows potential for support around the late September market center [2]. - China Galaxy Securities noted that the A-share market exhibits a "high cut low" characteristic, driven by previous gains and heightened market concerns, yet the upward trend in corporate profits and industrial development remains intact [2]. Group 3: Index Composition - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index accounted for 21.64% of the index, with Huagong Technology and Kaiying Network being the top two [3]. - The CSI 500 Quality Growth Index selects 100 companies with high profitability, sustainable earnings, and strong cash flow from the CSI 500 Index, providing diverse investment options for investors [2].

Group 1 - The recent adjustment in the A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index drop nearly 4% in a week, with the ChiNext Index falling over 6%, affecting more than 4,900 stocks [1][3] - External factors such as the cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, renewed debates over the AI bubble, and geopolitical tensions have contributed to the market downturn, impacting global risk assets [3] - Despite the market's decline, institutional investors have been actively buying, with over 70 billion yuan net inflow into stock ETFs in the past week, indicating confidence among smart money [3] Group 2 - Current valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is around 13.6 times, approaching a "reasonable" level, suggesting that further declines could present buying opportunities [3] - Market sentiment indicators have dropped to yearly lows, and the financing guarantee ratio has returned to early August levels, indicating that panic selling may have subsided [3] - Long-term investors are advised to focus on undervalued assets, particularly in sectors like domestic computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, and industries benefiting from supply-demand improvements due to "anti-involution" policies [4] Group 3 - Companies that can leverage China's manufacturing advantages for global pricing power are expected to thrive, with predictions that 2026 will be a significant year for Chinese enterprises going global [4] - High-dividend assets are recommended as a stabilizing force in a volatile market, with attention on cyclical dividends (coal, chemicals) and potential dividends (railways, environmental protection) [4] - Analysts predict a "low volatility slow bull" market for A-shares in 2026, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 30% upside for the Chinese stock market by 2027 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a downward trend, influenced by the global AI theme's instability and the year-end calendar effect, with major indices showing significant declines since mid-November [1] Group 1: A-share Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.45% on October 21, closing at 3834.89 points, breaking below the previous trading range [1] - Major indices have seen cumulative declines: Shanghai Composite Index down 4.83%, Shenzhen Component Index down 6.96%, and ChiNext Index down 8.80% since November 14 [1] - The Wande All A Index decreased by 6.33%, with the banking sector rising by 0.37% while the power equipment sector dropped by 7.37% [1] Group 2: AI Bubble Controversy - The debate in the US stock market centers on whether the AI industry is experiencing a bubble, with differing views on high valuations reflecting real growth potential versus speculative hype [2] - Many institutions believe the AI industry is in its early development stage, akin to the "frenzy phase" of the internet bubble, rather than on the verge of collapse [2] - The macroeconomic environment, with a high probability of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, reduces the risk of a bubble burst [2] Group 3: Long-term Logic of A-share Market - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for the A-share market remains positive, supported by institutional upgrades and changes in capital structure [3] - New policies and planning emphasize the capital market as a primary financing channel for new productive forces, improving market ecology through diversified listing standards and stricter delisting regulations [3] - There is a shift of household assets towards equity due to weakened real estate and low-interest rates, with net inflows into A-shares expected to reach new highs in 2024 [3] Group 4: Investment Insights - In the face of short-term market fluctuations, a balanced allocation strategy is recommended, maintaining positions in AI while also focusing on reasonably valued sectors like consumption and energy [4] - Long-term investment should concentrate on "new productive forces," focusing on foundational capabilities and innovative applications in AI [4] - A dollar-cost averaging strategy is suggested, along with maintaining cash reserves to manage irrational market volatility [4] Group 5: Supporters and Opponents of Bubble Theory - Supporters of the bubble theory cite high historical valuation levels, with the S&P Information Technology Index at a P/E ratio of 31 and the "seven tech giants" at 56 [5] - They also point to disappointing profit realizations, with 80% of AI-deploying companies failing to achieve net profit growth, and significant capital expenditure increases among tech giants [5] - Opponents argue that corporate profitability is better than during the internet bubble, with a net asset return rate of 25% for the S&P 500 Information Technology sector, and emphasize the genuine demand for technology [5]

2025 年 11 月 24 日 星期一 ➢ 每日大市点评 11 月 21 日，港股受隔夜美股下跌拖累，继续下探。周五恒生指数最终收报 25,220 点，跌 615 点（2.3%）；恒生科技指 数下跌 179 点（3.2%），收报 5,395 点；全天大市成交额扩大至 2,857 亿元。港股通净流入大幅减少至 1.1 亿元。盘面 上，科技股下跌幅度较大，腾讯（700 HK）下跌 1.8%；阿里巴巴（9988 HK）跌 4.6%，中芯国际（981 HK）跌 6.4%。国 内磷酸铁锂行业推进"反内卷"，中国化学与物理电源产业协会要求企业应将协会 11 月 18 日披露的行业平均成本区间 作为报价的重要参考，不要突破成本红线开展低价倾销。锂电相关个股受压，赣锋锂业（1772 HK）周五跌 12.5%；天齐 锂业（9696 HK）跌 11.9%；宁德时代（3750 HK）解禁后连续下跌，周五跌 3.7%。领展房产基金（823 HK）由于宣布减 少派息，令投资者失望，连续两天放量下跌。 美股方面，英伟达季度业绩强劲，令市场对人工智能前景重启乐观情绪；加上延迟发布的美国 9 月非农业职位增长远高 于预期，带动美股周四高开 ...

铜周报 降息预期回落，铜价高位调整 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 2025 年 11 月 24 日 ⚫ 上周铜价高位调整，主因美国非农数据超预期打压12月降 息前景，部分官员表示为了支持就业市场而降低利率可能 会延长高通胀周期，美元指数反弹承压金属市场。基本面 来看，印尼Grasberg有望将于2026年二季度复产，全球精 矿短期维持紧缺，国内精铜产量下滑，社会库存区间震荡 运行，高铜价对传统终端消费略有抑制，近月盘面转向C 结构。 ⚫ 整体来看，美国超预期的非农表现令年底降息进一步降 温，而全球科技股估值过高及AI泡沫破裂的风险令海 ...

Group 1 - A-shares opened higher on November 24, 2025, with active sectors including 6G, optical communication, AI applications, BC batteries, and computing hardware [1] - The A500 index fell by 0.09% as component stocks showed mixed performance, with GAC Group hitting the 10% limit up, Zhangjiang Hi-Tech rising by 7.30%, and Guangqi Technology increasing by 4.94% [1] - Recent adjustments in the A-share technology sector were influenced by high volatility in the US AI sector and discussions around an "AI bubble," leading to downward pressure on major indices [1] Group 2 - According to Huatai Securities, recent market fluctuations are attributed to external disturbances, with the current market adjustment showing initial signs of support around the mid-September market center [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI A500 index include CATL, Kweichow Moutai, China Ping An, and others, accounting for 19.36% of the index [2] - A500 ETF by Harvest closely tracks the CSI A500 index, providing balanced exposure to quality core assets across various industries [2]