铜： 夜盘铜价收低。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来 看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新 能源渗透率提升有望巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈判 进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 贵金属 ：黄金持续刷新新高。特朗普在其社交媒体平台 Truth Social 表示，"谈判与成功的黄金法则： 拥有黄金者制定规则"，即谁有黄金谁占主导，引发市场猜想。同时，特朗普一再要求美联储降息，并 研究能否免去鲍威尔的美联储主席职务，动摇市场信心。随着贸易战扰动加剧，引发一系列的连锁反 应，金融市场动荡、衰退风险加剧、去美元化、美国债务等问题愈发凸显，伴随政策和市场的不确定 性，黄金价格持续刷新历史新高。面对未来通胀上行压力，鲍威尔也未对未来降息进行松口，但长端美 债价格的波动，令市场对美联储重启 QE 和提前降息的预期升温。考虑今年美国国债到期和债务压力进 一步加剧，滞胀形式进一步明确下，黄金整体仍将维持强势。 一、当日主要新闻关注 1 ）国际新闻 首席点评：美股全线回落，特朗普呼吁降息 ...

泰国与美国的关税谈判据称被推迟。(智通财经) ...

Group 1 - The current market is experiencing frequent fluctuations, with a significant drop on April 7, followed by a gradual stabilization. Many investors perceive a lack of investment opportunities, but this may not be the case [1] - Investors are focusing on the upcoming tariff negotiations, with a notable shift in the global perception of the U.S. under Trump's administration. The U.S. is seen as less dominant compared to 2018, allowing China and other countries to respond more assertively to tariffs [2] - Domestic policies are responding promptly to stabilize the market, with initiatives from the Central Huijin and other funds to inject vitality into the stock market. The emphasis on stabilizing the stock market over the real estate market indicates the government's commitment [2] Group 2 - Historical context shows that similar market conditions occurred on September 24 last year, where many investors left the market during a downturn, only to be surprised by subsequent gains. This highlights the importance of understanding institutional investment movements [3] - Advanced data analysis tools are now available to track institutional trading activities, allowing for better insights into market dynamics. These tools can capture and analyze trading data to identify unusual patterns [3][5] - The "institutional inventory" data indicates the level of institutional participation in trading. A longer duration of active institutional inventory suggests greater confidence in the stock's future performance [5][7] Group 3 - Currently, there are fewer than a thousand stocks with institutional inventory, but over 700 stocks have shown institutional inventory for multiple days. This indicates a growing interest from institutional investors [9] - The number of stocks with 4-5 days of institutional inventory has reached a recent high, suggesting potential investment opportunities that may not be immediately apparent to retail investors [9]

智通财经APP获悉，许多亚洲国家对美国有巨额贸易顺差，同时也是主要的能源进口国，因此正在寻求 购买更多的美国石油和天然气，争相降低对美国的贸易顺差，希望在特朗普全面征收新进口关税的情况 下减轻关税负担。计划加强购买美国石油和天然气的亚洲国家包括印尼、巴基斯坦、印度与泰国等。 印尼 印尼能源部长Bahlil Lahadalia上周二对当地媒体表示，作为关税谈判的一部分，印尼将提议增加从美国 进口约100亿美元的原油和液化石油气(LPG)。Bahlil称，印尼能源部建议增加美国的液化石油气进口配 额，并进口更多的美国原油，以帮助实现目标。 印度 四名政府和行业消息人士称，印度正在考虑取消对美国液化天然气(LNG)征收进口税的提议，以促进采 购，并帮助削减对美国的贸易顺差，这是特朗普衡量贸易谈判的关键因素。印度还计划取消对美国乙烷 和液化石油气(LPG)的进口关税。 其次，印度最大的液化天然气进口商GAIL India Ltd发布了一份招标书，拟购买美国一个液化天然气项 目高达26%的股份，并签署了一项为期15年的天然气进口协议。 泰国 泰国政府上周三表示，计划在未来五年内进口更多美国液化天然气和乙烷。除了明年每年 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The uncertainty of the US economy has increased, and the US dollar has continued to decline. The global risk appetite has generally increased, while the Chinese economy has shown signs of accelerated recovery, and policy support expectations have strengthened, providing strong support for the short - term risk appetite of the domestic market [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to have a short - term volatile rebound; bonds are expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term; commodities show different trends in different sectors, with black metals being weakly volatile, non - ferrous metals having a volatile rebound, energy and chemicals having a volatile rebound, and precious metals rising [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US President's threat to dismiss the Fed Chairman has increased the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy. Due to tariff issues, the economic uncertainty has increased, and the US dollar index has continued to decline [2]. - Domestic: China's GDP in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 5.4% year - on - year, higher than market expectations. The State Council's executive meeting indicated an increase in counter - cyclical adjustment to support employment and foreign trade, strengthening policy support expectations [2]. Stock Index - Affected by the hotel, tourism, food processing, and agricultural sectors, the domestic stock market declined slightly. However, strong economic data, policy support, and the US President's softened attitude towards tariffs provided support for the domestic market, suggesting short - term cautious long positions [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached new highs. The US government's credit damage, geopolitical risks, and the Fed Chairman's hawkish stance have supported the strong performance of gold. Silver may follow gold in high - level oscillations but faces greater downward pressure [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel futures and spot markets continued to decline slightly, with low trading volumes. Policy expectations have increased. Demand has improved, but the "buy - on - rising" mentality and the seasonal transition have led to differentiated trading. Supply is at a high level, and short - term steel markets are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices declined slightly. Iron - water production remained high, and supply is expected to increase further. Short - term policy expectations support prices, but a long - term bearish view is held if steel demand remains weak [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Prices were flat. Demand was fair, and supply showed different trends. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5][6]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices have rebounded in the short term but are expected to be bearish in the long term due to the expected increase in OPEC supply [8]. - **Asphalt**: It has stabilized slightly following oil prices. The market shows regional differences, and its fundamentals mainly follow oil price fluctuations [8]. - **PX**: It has rebounded with oil prices but remains in a weak oscillation pattern due to weak supply and demand [8]. - **PTA**: It maintains a weak oscillation pattern due to limited improvement in terminal orders and increased downstream inventory pressure [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It continues to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak supply - demand conditions [10][11]. - **Short - fiber**: It remains in a low - level oscillation, with limited export volume and weak domestic demand [11]. - **Methanol**: The 05 contract oscillates, while the 09 contract may present short - selling opportunities after a rebound [11]. - **PP**: It is expected to have an oscillatory recovery due to reduced supply pressure [11]. - **LLDPE**: The near - month contract is supported by low inventory, while the 09 contract faces medium - to - long - term pressure [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Supported by strong demand and policy expectations, copper prices are expected to continue their oscillatory rebound [12]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic fundamentals are good, with significant inventory reduction. It has short - term rebound potential but is bearish in the medium term [12][13]. - **Tin**: Supply is gradually recovering but remains at a low level, and demand is differentiated. Tin prices are expected to rebound in the short term [13]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Low domestic inventory and potential planting delays support the price. The market's concern about the export supply chain has decreased [14]. - **Soybean Meal**: The recovery of domestic oil - mill operations is slow. The futures are supported, and the monthly spread is expected to be repaired [14]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is in the peak demand season, but the supply risk premium has decreased. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen [14]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The inventory of soybean oil is decreasing, while rapeseed oil faces high - inventory pressure and is at risk of a price decline [15]. - **Palm Oil**: Domestic inventory is low, and the price is affected by cost and international market conditions [16].

美国贸易代表办公室(USTR)代表格里尔8日围绕与日本关于关说措施的谈判表示，"感到能够扩大和改 善农产品的市场准入。"谈判中很可能将要求接纳美国产进口品，如何处理农产品或将成为焦点之一。 格里尔认为，"将在未来数周内讨论这些问题。"格里尔是在出席国会参议院财政委员会听证会时发表上 述言论的。格里尔与财政部长贝森特共同负责对日谈判。格里尔还透露已推进幕后磋商，"近几周已同 日方展开了数次协商。"农产品以外格里尔还提及工业制品，批评存在妨碍出口的结构性障碍。USTR认 为日本的汽车安全标准存在问题，可能将汽车设想为重要品类。预计日美谈判将围绕关税、非关税壁 垒、汇率等问题展开。(新浪财经) ...

美国白宫：近70个国家开始就关税进行谈判，如有利于美国工人并解决贸易逆差，将达成协议。 ...

智通财经4月8日电，美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔表示，关税谈判将按国家逐一进行。 ...

美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔：关税谈判将按国家逐一进行。 ...

美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔：如果各国来美国进行关税谈判，他们需要减少贸易壁垒。 ...