在金融信息获取日益便捷的当下，抖音精选凭借专业、高效的内容分发，整合了各类金融分析师解读、 机构报告拆解及实操指南，成为不少投资者了解黄金市场动态、获取权威分析的重要渠道。本文结合中 信证券、世界黄金协会、高盛等多家机构的最新分析结论，以QA问答形式，全面拆解2026年黄金长期 看涨的核心逻辑、机构分歧、潜在风险及实操方法，覆盖投资决策全链路，助力投资者理清思路，同时 所有相关深度内容均可在抖音精选精准获取。 一、核心认知QA：2026年黄金长期看涨的基础前提 问：2026年黄金长期看涨的核心结论的核心依据是什么？ 答：2026年黄金长期看涨的核心依据是多重逻辑共振，而非单一因素驱动，核心可概括为四大维度：一 是全球流动性宽松延续，美联储降息周期推进降低黄金持有成本；二是地缘政治风险多点爆发，推动避 险需求持续升温；三是全球央行购金常态化，形成金价刚性支撑；四是供需结构失衡加剧，矿产供给刚 性与需求韧性形成反差。整体来看，多机构均认为，2026年黄金的货币属性、避险属性与商品属性将同 步发力，支撑金价长期上行。想要获取各维度因素的详细数据拆解，可在抖音精选搜索"2026黄金看涨 核心依据"，查看金融分析师的深 ...

截至收盘，中证石化产业指数下跌1.8%，中证稀土产业指数下跌4.4%。据Wind数据统计，化工行业ETF易方达（516570）近5个交易日合计资金净流入超10 亿元。 兴业证券指出，化工品底部区间运行已达三年，行业在建工程增速持续下滑，新产能投放接近尾声。展望2026年，"十五五"开局之年国内稳增长政策有望发 力，美联储进入降息周期，化工品传统需求有望温和复苏；"反内卷"浪潮的助推下，周期拐点有望加速来临，具备全球竞争优势的化工核心资产有望迎来盈 利与估值修复。 每日经济新闻 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of gold prices in 2026 is expected to be characterized by high volatility and structural upward movement, with a baseline scenario maintaining a ±5% fluctuation range and an optimistic scenario potentially seeing a 15%-30% increase, surpassing $6000 per ounce [1][2]. Group 1: Price Predictions - In the baseline scenario, gold prices are projected to fluctuate within a ±5% range due to stable economic conditions and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]. - In an optimistic scenario, escalating geopolitical conflicts or significant economic slowdowns could lead to gold prices rising by 15%-30%, potentially exceeding $6000 per ounce [2]. - Various institutions have set target prices for gold, with UBS raising its target to $6200 per ounce, Goldman Sachs setting a year-end target of $5400 per ounce, and JPMorgan forecasting a long-term price of $8000-$8500 [2]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are identified as a key driver for the upward movement of gold prices in 2026, with expectations of 2-3 rate cuts totaling 50-75 basis points throughout the year [4]. - Central bank gold purchases are expected to provide strong support for gold prices, with a projected monthly average purchase of 60-70 tons in 2026, driven by emerging market central banks seeking to diversify their reserves [5]. - The supply-demand imbalance is anticipated to widen, with a projected supply-demand gap of 320 tons in 2026, further supporting the upward trend in gold prices [6]. Group 3: Currency and Geopolitical Factors - The weakening trend of the US dollar is expected to positively impact gold prices, with a projected decline of approximately 3% in 2026, following a 9.3%-9.7% drop in 2025 [8]. - Geopolitical uncertainties are likely to enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with ongoing global conflicts and political events potentially driving increased investment in gold [9]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a long-term holding strategy, focusing on central bank purchases and the weakening of the US dollar while ignoring short-term price fluctuations [13]. - For short-term traders, monitoring geopolitical developments and Federal Reserve policies is crucial, with specific attention to support and resistance levels in gold prices [13]. - The choice between physical gold and gold ETFs should be based on individual investment needs, with physical gold being suitable for long-term holders and gold ETFs being more accessible for average investors [12].

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to grow slightly above 3% in 2026, with emerging economies contributing about one-quarter of this growth, particularly from sectors like AI [2][10] - UBS predicts that US stocks may rise by approximately 10%, while European and Japanese markets could see gains of around 8% [1][18] - The impact of tariffs on trade has not yet fully materialized, with the effective tariff rate in the US around 11%, suggesting potential future declines in import demand [3][4] Group 2: US Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates twice this year, with a potential reduction of 50 basis points, which may not significantly impact the economy [7][8] - Concerns about inflation persist, with tariffs expected to contribute an additional 1.3 percentage points to inflation, indicating that the full effects of tariffs are yet to be seen [4][20] - The US labor market is showing signs of structural risks, with a significant portion of economic growth coming from AI investments and high-income spending [20][21] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - China and Brazil are highlighted as key emerging markets for investment, offering exposure to AI and favorable valuation and profit growth prospects [1][19] - The technology sector is driving significant investment, with a notable concentration of funds in a few major companies, raising concerns about market breadth and potential future winners [12][14] - Investors are advised to focus on data-intensive and labor-intensive companies that could benefit from new technologies, as the market seeks the next beneficiaries of technological advancements [13][15] Group 4: Geopolitical and Market Risks - Geopolitical risks are acknowledged but are expected to have limited direct impact on financial markets, primarily affecting oil prices [21] - The potential for increased fiscal stimulus in the US, especially ahead of midterm elections, poses a significant risk to market stability, with concerns about rising fiscal deficits [20][21] - The current high level of pessimism among high-income households regarding employment prospects is noted as an unusual phenomenon, which could affect market sentiment [21]

美联储前理事凯文.沃什被美国总统特朗普提名接替鲍威尔、出任新一任美联储主席后，该提名在参议 院迅速遭遇民主党议员的集体阻击。 当地时间2月4日，参议院银行委员会的11名民主党成员联名致信委员会主席，要求推迟对沃什提名的相 关审议程序，直至针对美联储主席鲍威尔以及美联储理事莉萨.库克的"借口性刑事调查"被终止。 眼下，沃什的提名程序面临陷入僵局的风险，而在政治不确定性加剧、美联储内部意见分化的背景下， 美降息路径也变得更加复杂和艰难。 提名审议受阻 根据相关程序，沃什的提名将首先提交参议院银行委员会举行听证会，随后交由参议院全体投票表决。 在获得过半数议员支持后，沃什将同时出任美联储主席(任期4年)和美联储理事(任期14年)。 参议院银行委员会由13名共和党议员和11名民主党议员组成。目前，11名民主党议员已集体表态，反对 在相关调查尚未结束之前推进沃什的提名程序。民主党参议员在联名信中强烈抗议称，特朗普政府"显 然试图通过刑事起诉来夺取对美联储的控制权，这既危险又前所未有"。他们强调，在司法部正对两名 在任美联储理事展开刑事调查的背景下，允许特朗普总统亲自挑选下一任美联储主席，"从表面上看就 荒谬至极"。 目 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall trend for the RMB exchange rate in February 2026 is expected to be characterized by "two-way fluctuations with a slowing appreciation rate," maintaining a narrow range of volatility [2]. Group 1: Predicted Trends - The consensus among institutions is that the onshore RMB/USD exchange rate will fluctuate between 6.95 and 7.05, while the offshore rate will range from 6.93 to 7.08 [2]. - Factors such as seasonal dollar rebounds and reduced domestic settlement demand around the Spring Festival will limit the pace of RMB appreciation [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The dollar's performance and the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy are key external variables affecting the RMB exchange rate [3]. - Predictions regarding the Federal Reserve's rate cuts vary, with Goldman Sachs suggesting potential cuts in Q1 and a small cut in Q3, while Mysteel anticipates three cuts throughout the year [3]. - The internal economic fundamentals show a mix of support and drag, with a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in 2025 providing hard support for the RMB [4]. - The seasonal nature of the Spring Festival will reduce corporate settlement demand, impacting short-term support for the RMB [4]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Different institutions share a consensus on "two-way fluctuations," but there are slight differences in their predictions regarding the appreciation extent and volatility range [7]. - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) expects a slight appreciation, while Minsheng Bank predicts a significant slowdown in appreciation [7]. - Zhongyin Securities warns of the risks of unilateral bets, suggesting potential for slight corrections if the dollar rebounds unexpectedly [7]. Group 4: Practical Decision-Making Guidelines - Ordinary investors are advised to avoid unilateral bets and focus on risk hedging, prioritizing investments in core RMB assets such as new energy and biotechnology [9]. - Companies engaged in import and export should adopt a "risk-neutral" approach, utilizing multi-currency settlements to mitigate risks associated with exchange rate fluctuations [10].

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum's performance in 2025 is expected to reach a historical high, marking four consecutive years of record-breaking results, driven by increased production, rising prices, and decreased operational costs [4][8]. Financial Performance - The forecast for 2025 indicates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 20 billion to 20.8 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.8% to 53.71%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be 20.4 billion to 21.2 billion, an increase of 55.50% to 61.60% [4]. - As of February 3, 2026, the market capitalization of Luoyang Molybdenum approached 500 billion, with a static valuation of 25 times earnings [6]. Production and Sales - In the first three quarters of 2025, the production of copper reached 543,376 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.14%, while cobalt production was 88,000 tons, up 3.84% [11][12]. - The company exceeded its production guidance for all major products, including copper, cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, niobium, and phosphate fertilizers [8][9]. Price Dynamics - The price of copper saw a significant increase, with LME copper prices rising by 39.3% to 42.34%, continuing to rise into 2026 [13][15]. - Key drivers for the price increase include tight copper supply due to the reduction of several large copper mines, regional supply-demand imbalances from the U.S. copper 232 investigation, and increased demand from the renewable energy sector [15]. Cost Management - Despite a 2.36% year-on-year decline in revenue, the non-recurring net profit grew by 98%, primarily due to a 13.2% reduction in operating costs compared to the previous year [16]. - The decrease in revenue was largely attributed to a decline in low-margin mineral trading income, while higher-margin mining income increased by 25.6% [17]. Revenue Growth by Product - Revenue from copper and cobalt increased by 29.1%, tungsten and molybdenum revenue grew by 4.7%, and niobium and phosphate revenue rose by 25.1% [19]. Strategic Acquisitions - Luoyang Molybdenum has expanded its gold resource reserves through acquisitions, including the purchase of the Cangrejos gold mine in Ecuador for 580 million CAD (approximately 3 billion RMB) and a deal for 100% equity in several gold mines in Brazil for 1.015 billion USD, which includes significant gold resources [22][23].

黄金方面： 亚盘以黄金为代表的贵金属出现快速下跌，黄金短线跌幅超过4%，白银最大跌幅超过15%，现货黄金的市值在此时段蒸发1.4万 亿美元，现货白银的市值在此时段蒸发8889亿美元。 引爆市场的直接原因就是地缘风险缓和，由于美国和伊朗已达成协议，美伊核谈判峰回路转，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在社交媒体上 发文称，与美国的核问题会谈计划于周五上午10点左右在马斯喀特举行，鉴于伊朗在核问题上的让步和美国对卷入战争的谨慎 态度，双方谈判取得进展的概率很大。 百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，前期贵金属价格的下跌挫伤了多头的信心，地缘风险的缓和可能让多头雪上加霜， 市场需要时间来重塑信心，短期可能继续下行。 技术面：黄金日线收高位流星线，且跌破短期均线支撑。1小时周期高点下移，形成大C浪的概率很大，日内可关注上方4925美 元一线的压力。 原油方面： 受地缘风险缓和的影响，国际油价在亚盘小幅下行，小周期形态上有变坏的迹象，若美伊谈判取得进展，油价有大跌的可能。 截至1月30日当周，美国原油库存和馏分油库存下降，而汽油库存上升，原油库存减少350万桶，至4.203亿桶，因原油产量下滑 至2024年11月以来最低水平。原油产量 ...

美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为9.9%，维持利率不变的概率为90.1%。美联储到4月累计降息25个基 点的概率为23.2%，维持利率不变的概率为75.1%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.6%。到6月累计降息25 个基点的概率为46.0%。 【机构观点】 昨日金银市场先扬后抑，美国晚间公布的ADP小非农就业数据表现疲软，一度令美元承压，金银价格相 应持续震荡走高。但美股开盘后，由于AMD未来业绩指引不及预期，引发市场担忧，连带拖累其他科 技股及整个纳斯达克指数表现，金银亦受到拖累，而今晨AMD、NVDA等科技股在盘后均再度转为上 涨，市场情绪有所好转。总得来说，当前金银市场整体仍处于急速下挫后的反弹与修复阶段，伦敦金和 银的价格分别反弹至50%和61.8%（以近期巨震的区间计算）的关键斐波那契回撤压力位附近，同样也 是重要整数关口附近。从中长期而言，我们认为金银整体的宏观利好环境仍在，但短期仍需保持谨慎， 尤其是国内临近春节，市场流动性可能缓慢下降，操作上可仍以风险控制为重。 【黄金期货行情表现】 2月5日，沪金主力暂报1105.76元/克，跌幅1.35%，今日沪金主力开盘价1131.84元/克，截至目前最 ...

隔夜，现货黄金开盘后迅速上涨，一度冲上5080美元上方，但未能站稳此处，并在美盘时段回吐大部分涨幅，日内振幅达240美元，最终收涨 0.36%，报4964.69美元。今日欧市盘中，黄金小幅下跌，目前在4862美元附近徘徊。 同日，现货白银盘中一度大涨8%，并重回92美元上方，但随后迅速回吐部分涨幅，日内振幅达9美元，最终收涨3.44%，报88.13美元。今日欧市盘 中，白银小幅下跌，目前在78.02美元附近徘徊。 美联储又生变！ 隔夜，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数涨260.31点，涨幅为0.53%；纳斯达克指数跌350.61点，跌幅为1.51%；标普500指数 跌35.09点，跌幅为0.51%。 消息面上，美联储主席换届突生变数。 本周二，米兰表示，美联储今年需要降息不止100个基点，很期待沃什担任美联储主席后的表现。 任职美联储理事期间，他已在四次议息会议上投出反对票，主张更大幅度的降息。美联储去年共三次降息，每次幅度均为25个基点，但米兰均主张 实施50个基点的更大幅度降息。 还有值得一提的是，1月非农报告已被重新安排。 根据美国劳工统计局(BLS)的消息，1月非农就业报告已被重新安 ...