Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that stock index futures will show an overall trend of range - bound fluctuations in the short - and medium - term, with an intraday view of being slightly stronger. Policy - side benefits provide strong support, and the stock index is expected to operate slightly stronger in the short term under the impetus of positive policy expectations [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2506 variety, the short - term view is sideways, the medium - term view is sideways, the intraday view is slightly stronger, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is that policy - side benefits form strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, each stock index fluctuated and sorted within a narrow range. The total trading volume of the stock market was 132.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.49 billion yuan from the previous day, indicating that market sentiment is cautiously optimistic [5]. - **Core Logic**: First, the policy side will introduce policies to stabilize macro - economic demand, which is beneficial to stabilizing the performance expectations of listed companies. The weakening of the manufacturing PMI data in April and the continued decline of inflation indicators show the necessity of policy - driven stable growth. Second, the policy side emphasizes stabilizing stock market expectations, and the bottom support of the stock market is strong. Relevant departments have actively introduced policies to stabilize stock market expectations, promote the improvement of the quality and income of listed companies, improve the assessment systems of public funds and insurance, promote incremental funds to continuously allocate to the stock market, and give play to the role of Huijin Company as a quasi - stabilization fund. Third, a joint statement was issued in Sino - US economic and trade relations, marking a substantial easing of the short - term Sino - US tariff war, reducing external negative factors, and the recent restart of Sino - US orders is conducive to macro - economic repair [5].

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 5 月 14 日星期三 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周二两市主要指数在大涨后震荡整理，周期价值类指数强势，银行 ETF 创新高。两 | | | | | 市成交额 1.29 万亿元，成交额变化不大。中证 1000 指数收 6151 点，跌 16 点，跌 | | | | | 幅-0.27%；中证 500 指数收 5781 点，跌 12 点，涨幅-0.21%；沪深 300 指数收 3896 | | | | | 点，涨 5 点，涨幅 0.15%；上证 50 指数收 2708 点，涨 5 点，涨幅 0.20%。行业与 | | | | | 主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是光伏 50ETF、银行 ETF 龙头、医疗 ETF、生物医药 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 姓名：龙奥明 核心逻辑：昨日各股指全面上涨。股市全市场成交额 13409 亿元，较上日放量 1185 亿元。消息面， 中美双方发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，双方各下 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 宏 观 金 融 周 报 2025年5月12日 [Table_Title] 央行超预期降准和降息，提振国内市场情绪 ——股指期货周报 [table_main] 投资要点： 行情走势：上周沪深 300 指数收于 3846.16 点，较前值上升 2.00%；累计成交 10176 亿元，日均成交 2035 亿元，较前值下降 141 亿元。两市融资融券余额 为 17919 亿元。表现较好的前五名行业分别是国防军工(6.44%)、通信(5.43%)、 银行(3.98%)、机械(3.82%)、电力设备及新能源(3.80%)；表现较差的前五名行 业分别是医药(0.98%)、农林牧渔(0.84%)、电子元器件(0.72%)、房地产(0.65%)、 消费者服务(0.30%)。 期现基差行情：IF、IH、IC、IM 当月合约基差分别为-5.96 点、-0.41 点、 -19.32 点、-25.88 点。前一周同期值分别为-18.57 点、-5.96 点、-41.62 点、-44.72 点。 跨期价差行情：IF 合约次月-当月、当季-次季、次季-当季价差分别为-31.60 点、-6 ...

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Stock Index Futures Panoramic Daily Report 2025/5/12 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - A - share major indexes closed up collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.82% to 3369.24 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.72% to 10301.16 points, and the Chi - Next Index rising 2.63% to 2064.71 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased slightly, and over 4100 stocks in the whole market rose. Most industry sectors rose, with power equipment and machinery leading the gains, defense and military industry leading the rise, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and pharmaceutical and biological sectors leading the decline [2]. - China's economic fundamentals show that in April, CPI turned from decline to increase month - on - month, with the year - on - year decline unchanged; PPI's month - on - month decline remained unchanged, and the year - on - year decline slightly widened. The CPI - PPI scissors gap widened compared with the previous month, indicating potential pressure on future prices. In terms of trade, in April, China's imports and exports accelerated by 4.3 percentage points compared with the first quarter, and foreign trade continued to grow steadily, showing resilience [2]. - The joint statement of the China - US Geneva economic and trade talks was released. The US will adjust the tariff rates on Chinese goods, and China will also adjust counter - tariffs on the US and suspend non - tariff measures, significantly alleviating the short - term risk of trade friction escalation. On May 7, the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly issued a "package of financial policies", sending positive signals of stabilizing growth, employment, and expectations [2]. - Currently, China's economy shows dual characteristics of marginal improvement in the trade environment and gradual recovery of domestic demand. The phased easing of China - US tariffs significantly improves the external environment, and the combination of the month - on - month increase in CPI and the implementation of growth - stabilizing policies promotes the recovery of domestic demand, which may further boost market risk appetite. Strategically, it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - **Contract Prices**: IF main contract (2506) was at 3853.0, up 47.0; IH main contract (2506) was at 2686.6, up 20.4; IC main contract (2506) was at 5688.0, up 82.8; IM main contract (2506) was at 6037.0, up 93.0 [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1181.2, up 24.6; IC - IF current - month contract spread was 1901.0, up 38.8; IM - IC current - month contract spread was 365.6, up 11.8; IC - IH current - month contract spread was 3082.2, up 63.4; IM - IF current - month contract spread was 2266.6, up 50.6; IM - IH current - month contract spread was 3447.8, up 75.2 [2]. - **Seasonal - to - Current - Month Spreads**: IF seasonal - to - current - month was - 98.4, down 1.8; IH seasonal - to - current - month was - 50.6, up 1.0; IC seasonal - to - current - month was - 261.4, down 14.8; IM seasonal - to - current - month was - 308.2, down 11.6 [2]. 3.2 Futures Positions - IF top 20 net positions were - 33,290.00, up 1520.0; IH top 20 net positions were - 13,750.00, up 1805.0; IC top 20 net positions were - 14,346.00, up 1511.0; IM top 20 net positions were - 38,107.00, up 3839.0 [2]. 3.3 Spot Prices - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index was at 3890.61, up 44.5; the Shanghai 50 index was at 2702.62, up 18.6; the CSI 500 index was at 5793.67, up 72.0; the CSI 1000 index was at 6167.46, up 85.4 [2]. - IF main contract basis was - 82.0, down 44.5; IH main contract basis was - 36.4, down 18.6; IC main contract basis was - 188.9, down 71.9; IM main contract basis was - 222.3, down 85.4 [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume was 13,408.67 billion yuan, up 1184.81 billion yuan; margin trading balance (previous trading day) was 18,040.11 billion yuan, down 47.44 billion yuan; north - bound trading volume (previous trading day) was 1341.36 billion yuan, down 97.47 billion yuan; reverse repurchase (maturity, operation volume) was 0.0 billion yuan, up 430.0 billion yuan; net inflow of main funds was - 572.37 billion yuan, up 182.71 billion yuan [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks was 75.98%, up 53.57 percentage points; Shibor was 1.422%, down 0.075 percentage points; IO at - the - money call option closing price (2505) was 23.00, up 14.00; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility was 14.90%, up 1.40 percentage points; IO at - the - money put option closing price (2505) was 37.20, down 31.80; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility was 14.75%, up 1.11 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day volatility of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index was 6.95%, down 19.75 percentage points; trading volume PCR was 60.89%, down 5.20 percentage points; open interest PCR was 74.13%, up 1.49 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares were at 7.50, up 4.30; technical aspect was at 7.60, up 5.40; capital aspect was at 7.40, up 3.20 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The US will modify the ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods in Executive Order No. 14257 issued on April 2, 2025. 24% of the tariffs will be suspended for the initial 90 days, while retaining the right to impose the remaining 10% of the tariffs on these goods as stipulated in the executive order. It will also cancel the additional tariffs on these goods imposed under Executive Orders No. 14259 on April 8, 2025, and No. 14266 on April 9, 2025. China will correspondingly modify the ad - valorem tariffs on US goods in the Tax Commission Announcement No. 4 of 2025, suspend 24% of the tariffs for the initial 90 days, retain the right to impose the remaining 10% of the tariffs, and cancel the additional tariffs on these goods under Tax Commission Announcements No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025. China will also take necessary measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures against the US since April 2, 2025 [2]. - In April, China's CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 0.1% year - on - year; PPI fell 0.4% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year [2]. - In the first four months of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 14.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Among them, exports were 8.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.5%; imports were 5.75 trillion yuan, a decrease of 4.2%. In April, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.6%. Among them, exports were 2.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.3%; imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.8% [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - On May 13 at 20:30, the US April core CPI year - on - year data will be released. On May 14 at 22:30, the US EIA crude oil inventory data (in 10,000 barrels) for the week ending May 9 will be released [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the index stabilizes and fluctuates, and investors are advised to wait and see [2] - The stock index futures fluctuate strongly, and the market trading volume slightly increases. There is an arbitrage opportunity in the CSI 1000 index futures [6] 3. Summary by Directory I. Stock Index Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Domestic News**: Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland from May 10th to 11th, reaching important consensus and making substantial progress [2] - **Overseas News**: On May 10th, Pakistan and India agreed to an immediate cease - fire [2] - **Weekly Summary and Outlook**: The CSI 300 index fluctuated strongly last week with slightly increased trading volume. In the past 5 trading days, the net outflow of main funds was 74 billion yuan, and the margin trading funds increased by 1.1 billion yuan. The domestic economy is weakly stable, and fiscal and monetary policies remain loose. Risks include tariff policies, overseas economic inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and Fed policies [2] II. Stock Index Futures Quotes and Basis - **Price Movement**: Stock index futures fluctuated strongly, and market trading volume slightly increased [6] - **Basis**: The current stock index basis rate is high, and there is an arbitrage opportunity in the CSI 1000 index futures [6] - **Price Changes**: Since 2024, the Shanghai Composite 50 large - cap stocks have risen 17.09%, and the CSI 1000 small - cap stocks have risen 3.88% [6] III. Stock Index Macro and Profit Growth - **Macro**: In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49 (below the boom - bust line), the interest rate was 1.64% (below 3%), and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 7% [9] - **Profit**: In the first quarter of A - shares, the year - on - year net profit of enterprises turned from a decline to an increase compared with the end of last year, and the net profit growth rate of the CSI 300 slightly declined [9] - **Interest Rate**: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond was 1.64%, unchanged from last week [9] IV. Stock Index Capital and Valuation Changes - **Capital**: The margin trading balance of A - shares increased by 1.1 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days, and the net outflow of main funds of A - shares totaled 74 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days [14] - **Valuation**: The overall index valuation is at a medium - low level. The rolling price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index is 12 times, and the percentile is 36% [14] V. Stock Index Fundamental and Technical Analysis - **Fundamentals**: The medium - long - term monetary policy is loose, the interest rate is low, and the domestic economy is weakly stable. The profit in the first quarter of A - shares increased year - on - year. The margin trading funds increased, and the main funds had a short - term net outflow. The current valuation is still at a medium - low level, which supports the stock index in the medium - long term [18] - **Technical Analysis**: The CSI 300 index is near the medium - long - term moving average, the trading volume slightly increases, and it fluctuates strongly in the short term [17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index futures is range - bound, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly and a medium - term view of oscillating [1][5]. - The policy support and capital return after the holiday are the main driving factors for the short - term rise of the stock index, and the stock index has medium - and long - term capital support and macro - policy support [5]. - The stock index faces technical resistance when rising to the gap in early April, and the result of China - US contact is uncertain, which may affect market sentiment [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly, with a reference view of range - bound oscillation, and the core logic is that policy support is strong [1]. 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is range - bound [5]. - The reasons for the short - term rise of the stock index are the return of funds after the holiday and the release of a package of financial policies. In the medium and long term, there is capital support and macro - policy support [5]. - The stock index faces technical resistance when rising, and the result of China - US contact is uncertain, which may lead to cautious market sentiment [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 股指期货早报- 2025年5月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230469 投资咨询证号：Z0000690 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、 收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 早评 期指 1、基本面：中美经贸高层会谈达成重要共识取得实质性进展，上周市场震荡上涨，金融和军工板块 相对强势；偏多 IC2505贴水21.81点，IM2505贴水30.48点，偏空 期债 2、资金：融资余额17971亿元，增加71亿元；偏多 3、基差：IH2505贴水0.51点，IF2505贴水7.1点，中性 4、盘面：IM>IC>IF> IH（主力），IM、IC、IF、IH在20日均线上方，偏多 5、主力持仓： IH主力多减，IF 主力多增，IC 主力多减，偏多 6、预期：中美经贸高层会谈达成重要共识取得实质性进展，国务院新闻发布会利好落地，指数冲高 回落，说明短期上方压力较大，不建议日内追高，整体指数震荡 ...

沪深300股指期货（IF）主力合约涨0.48%，上证50股指期货（IH）主力合约持平，中证500股指期货 （IC）主力合约涨0.59%，中证1000股指期货（IM）主力合约涨0.96%。 股指期货早盘开盘 ...

股指期货日报 2025年5月9日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 缩量偏弱 市场回顾 股指日报 今日股指除上证50指数收涨外，其余均收跌。从资金面来看，两市成交额减少1013.68亿元。期指方面， IF、IC缩量下跌，IH缩量上涨，IM放量下跌。 重要资讯 1. 英国和美国就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，英国政府同意在进口美国食品和农业产品方面作出让步，以 换取美方降低对英国汽车出口的关税。 2. 中国4月出口（以美元计价）同比增长8.1%，前值增12.4%；进口降0.2%，前值降4.3%；贸易顺差 961.8亿美元；前值顺差1026.4亿美元。 核心观点 上午公布最新进出口数据，贸易数据超预期，数据公布后指数均有所反弹。由于市场逐渐消化近期政策利 好，且关税对国内经济的影响需要更多经济数据验证，因此今日指数整体缩量调整，红利指数领涨，市场 情绪趋于谨慎。随着中美关税态度趋于缓和，避险情绪降温，叠加国家对稳市场的决心下预计政策还有发 力空间，股指下方较为坚挺。后续交易重点或将转向经济基本面，近期需关注本周末中美贸易谈判情况以 及之后国内 ...