数据公布后，美元指数(DXY)短线下挫，现报98.95。黄金现货上涨约10美元/盎司，报4625.29美元/盎司。美股三大股指期货转 涨，道指期货涨0.01%，标普500期货涨0.12%，纳指期货涨0.16%。 | = US 30 | 49,596.70 | 49,684.40 | 49,456.40 | +6.50 | +0.01% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 500 | 6,985.50 | 6,997.40 | 6,960.10 | +8.20 | +0.12% | | 트 US Tech 100 | 25,829.40 | 25,876.40 | 25,677.90 | +41.70 | +0.16% | 目前，美联储官员在通胀和就业市场风险哪个更应优先关注的问题上存在分歧。周二公布的这份最新通胀报告将用于评估企业 将关税相关成本转嫁给消费者的情况。此次12月CPI数据，是几个月来首次对通胀趋势进行完整盘点。由于去年秋季联邦政府 关门，劳工部未能在现场收集价格数据，在前次通胀报告中不得不使用技术手段处理缺失数据。尽管目前通胀率相比数年前 ...

二、能源与航运期货 来源：喜娜AI 一、贵金属期货 现货黄金价格出现显著波动，日内跌幅扩大，先后失守4470美元/盎司、4460美元/盎司及4450美元/盎司 关口，日内最大跌幅达0.79%[1][2][3]。 纽约期金同步下行，日内跌幅0.36%，失守4490美元/盎司，随后进一步跌破4480美元/盎司，日内跌幅 扩大至0.57%[4][5]。 现货白银短线跌破71美元/盎司，日内跌0.66%，纽约期银同步失守71美元/盎司，日内跌幅0.21%[6]。 钯金期货大幅下挫，失守1800美元/盎司，日内暴跌8.07%[7]。 美国官方表示，白宫已下令军方将工作重心几乎完全放在对委内瑞拉的隔离管控执行上，对委石油制裁 至少将持续两个月[9]。 此外，因圣诞节假期，芝商所旗下贵金属期货合约今日全天交易暂停[8]。 受圣诞假期影响，洲际交易所旗下布伦特原油期货合约及芝商所旗下美油期货合约今日全天交易暂停 [10]。 四、宏观与市场影响 今日欧美主要市场因圣诞节集体休市，包括美国、德国、法国、英国、意大利、西班牙等股市，以及澳 大利亚、韩国市场[15]。 美国30年期住房抵押贷款利率降至6.18%[16]。 比特币则逆 ...

Core Insights - The latest inflation data from the U.S. indicates a continued slowdown in price increases, providing the Federal Reserve with new opportunities to consider interest rate cuts [1][9] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 3% year-over-year, lower than the market expectation of 3.1% and the previous value of 2.9% [1][3] - Core CPI also increased by 3% year-over-year, matching the previous value but below expectations [3] Inflation Details - Gasoline prices were the largest contributor to inflation, rising by 4.1%, while overall inflation pressures remained moderate [6] - Food prices increased by 0.2%, and overall goods prices rose by 0.5% [6] - Year-over-year, energy prices rose by 2.8%, and food prices increased by 3.1% [6] - Housing costs, which account for about one-third of the CPI, only rose by 0.2% for the month, with a year-over-year increase of 3.6% [6] Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, the U.S. dollar index dropped, while stock index futures, particularly the Nasdaq, saw a near 1% increase [5] - U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply, and spot gold prices rose by over $20 [5] Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice more this year, with a 96.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October [9][10] - Analysts believe the report will encourage the Fed to continue its rate-cutting plans, prioritizing labor market stability over inflation targets [9] Concerns and Risks - Some analysts express concerns that President Trump's tariff policies could trigger a new wave of inflationary pressures [11] - Federal Reserve officials are worried that the slowdown in hiring may spread, despite low layoff numbers [11]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the release of the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, indicating inflation trends in the U.S. economy [1][2][3] Group 2 - The July CPI year-on-year increased by 2.7%, matching the previous value and slightly below the expected 2.8% [1] - The month-on-month CPI for July rose by 0.2%, consistent with expectations but lower than the previous month's increase of 0.3% [1] - The core CPI year-on-year for July was reported at 3.1%, exceeding the expected 3% and up from the previous 2.9% [2] - The month-on-month core CPI for July increased by 0.3%, aligning with expectations and higher than the previous 0.2% [3] Group 3 - Following the CPI data release, traders increased their bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3] - U.S. stock index futures experienced a short-term rise, with the Nasdaq futures up by 0.41%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.36%, and Dow futures up by 0.44% [3] - U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply, with the 2-year Treasury yield decreasing by nearly 5 basis points [3] - The U.S. dollar index declined by 0.22% in the short term [3] - Spot gold prices increased by 0.29% shortly after the data release [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock index futures opened slightly lower on Monday [1] Group 1 - The three major U.S. stock indices are experiencing a minor decline at the start of the trading session [1]

Group 1 - The spot gold price slightly decreased by 0.04% in early Asian trading on Monday [1] - WTI crude oil price increased by 0.02% [1] - The three major U.S. stock index futures opened slightly lower [1]

Group 1: Core Insights - The June non-farm payroll report revealed a significant increase of 147,000 jobs, surpassing market expectations of 110,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, below the anticipated 4.3% [1][3] - The job growth was primarily driven by a surge in government employment, particularly in education-related positions, which accounted for nearly half of the new jobs, indicating a structural imbalance in employment growth [3][9] - The report raised concerns about the sustainability of job growth, as private sector job additions were only 74,000, reflecting a moderate economic vitality [3][10] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of the non-farm data, the financial markets experienced a rapid shift, with the dollar index rising by 0.6%, marking the largest single-day increase in three months, while gold prices fell sharply [5][6] - The expectations for a July interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve plummeted, with the probability of maintaining rates rising from 76.7% to 93.3%, indicating a fundamental shift in market pricing logic [4][5] Group 3: Political and Monetary Policy Dynamics - The release of the non-farm data sparked a heated debate in the U.S. political and financial spheres, highlighting the tension between political influence and the independence of monetary policy [7][8] - President Trump claimed credit for the job growth, labeling it the "Trump effect," despite the fact that a significant portion of the job increase came from government sectors, undermining the narrative of private sector prosperity [7][9] Group 4: Future Outlook and Concerns - The report highlighted three major concerns: the sustainability of job growth, the ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade policies, and the potential for a shift in Federal Reserve policy [9][10] - Analysts expressed differing views on the Fed's future actions, with some suggesting that the likelihood of rate cuts has diminished, while others warned that economic indicators could still prompt a policy shift later in the year [8][10]

Group 1 - WTI crude oil opened slightly higher on Friday [1] - Spot gold remained essentially flat [1] - Futures for the three major U.S. stock indices saw slight increases [1]

Group 1 - U.S. stock index futures opened lower by 0.4% on Monday [1]

Group 1 - Spot gold opened slightly higher on Monday, increasing by 4 dollars to 3313 dollars per ounce [1] - The three major U.S. stock index futures opened slightly higher by 0.1% [1] - WTI crude oil opened flat on Monday [1]