Thieliant指出，这一通胀动向降低了澳洲联储进一步放松货币政策的可能性。他预计，澳洲联储在下周 即将召开的货币政策会议上"几乎肯定"将维持当前政策利率不变。 新华财经北京10月29日电凯投宏观（Capital Economics）分析师Marcel Thieliant称，澳大利亚第三季度 潜在通胀表现强劲，修正后的平均消费者价格指数（CPI）环比增速由第二季度的0.6%上升至1.0%。该 数据已超过澳洲联储主席米歇尔·布洛克（Michele Bullock）此前设定的"显著上行意外"阈值——即环比 增幅不低于0.9%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 此外，Thieliant补充称："随着经济活动现已反弹，当前风险明显偏向于降息幅度小于我们目前预估的 两次25个基点降息。"此番表态暗示，市场此前对年内多次降息的预期可能过于乐观。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the importance of maintaining financial stability and supporting the real economy while enhancing financial regulation and reform since November 2024 [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The PBOC plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to create a favorable financial environment for economic recovery, ensuring that social financing and money supply growth align with economic growth and price expectations [2] - The central bank aims to enhance the efficiency of fund utilization and maintain liquidity while managing interest rates and preventing excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [2] Group 2: Financial Regulation - There will be a focus on strengthening and improving financial regulation, including addressing irrational competition among financial institutions and enhancing consumer protection [2][3] - The PBOC will implement a comprehensive regulatory framework to combat illegal financial activities and improve the legal framework governing finance [2][3] Group 3: Financial Services to the Real Economy - The PBOC will prioritize high-quality financial services to support key sectors such as technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and foreign trade [3] - Financial institutions are encouraged to enhance their specialized capabilities to better serve these sectors [3] Group 4: Structural Reforms - The PBOC will continue to deepen supply-side structural reforms in finance, including improving the central bank's system and enhancing the transmission mechanism of monetary policy [3] - There will be a push for the development of the bond market and reforms in the stock market to promote high-quality growth in direct financing [3] Group 5: Financial Openness and Security - The PBOC aims to advance high-level financial openness while ensuring national financial security, including promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi and enhancing its global functions [4] - The central bank will also focus on building a cross-border payment system and monitoring international economic trends that may impact China [4] Group 6: Risk Prevention - The PBOC will strengthen the monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks and support the market-oriented transformation of financing platforms [4] - Efforts will be made to improve the financing system in line with new real estate development models and enhance the governance of small and medium-sized financial institutions [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The resumption of the central bank's bond - buying may not fully reflect its impact on the bond market. The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 is expected to approach 1.7%. - The domestic interest - rate cut cycle may not end. Although there is uncertainty about the timing of the interest - rate cut in Q4, the resumption of Treasury bond trading reflects that the economy still needs monetary policy support. - The central bank's need for reserve requirement ratio cuts is not urgent, and more attention should be paid to the actual changes in liquidity. - In the current situation, a relatively positive attitude towards bonds can be maintained. It is advisable to maintain a certain leverage, retain long - bond positions, and appropriately increase the holdings of some 3 - 5 - year interest - rate bonds to take advantage of the potential decline in short - term interest rates after the resumption of bond - buying [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Why Restart Bond - Buying Now? - With the continuous increase in fiscal expansion in recent years, the central bank's Treasury bond trading is an important measure to maintain fiscal sustainability and stabilize interest - rate fluctuations. However, due to concerns about market risks, the central bank suspended bond - buying in January 2024. - After July 2025, the central bank's concerns about risks decreased, and the necessity of bond - buying increased due to the decline in commercial banks' ability to undertake government bonds. - The central bank may have believed that the large impact on the interest - rate curve in 2024 was due to insufficient liquidity in the domestic bond market. After the implementation of measures such as canceling the freezing of pledged bonds and the centralized bond lending business, the conditions for restarting bond - buying were basically met. - In October, considering the need to achieve the annual economic and social development goals and the expected increase in government bond supply in November and December, it was a suitable choice for the central bank to restart bond - buying [6][7][8][13]. 3.2 Will There Be Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest - Rate Cuts After the Resumption of Bond - Buying? - Market expectations for overall monetary easing have cooled with the easing of Sino - US trade frictions. The central bank did not clearly mention reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest - rate cuts when announcing the resumption of bond - buying. - The current economic problem is mainly the insufficient demand caused by debt digestion. Interest - rate cuts are an important means to relieve debt pressure and repair the internal driving force of the economy. Therefore, the domestic interest - rate cut cycle may not end. - From a fundamental perspective, there is a need for an interest - rate cut in Q4, but there is uncertainty about the timing due to factors such as financial stability and policy space. - The need for a reserve requirement ratio cut is not urgent because the liquidity consumed by reserve requirements in the first three quarters is roughly equivalent to the scale of the May reserve requirement ratio cut, and the central bank has hedged external disturbances through other means. The impact of reserve requirement ratio cuts on the bond market has weakened in recent years, and more attention should be paid to liquidity changes [14][15][16][20]. 3.3 How to Respond to Bond Investment? - After the news of the central bank's resumption of bond - buying was announced, long - term interest rates dropped significantly, but there are views that the positive impact on the bond market has been basically reflected. - The impact of the central bank's bond - buying on long - term bonds may be weaker than in 2024. However, the resumption of bond - buying reflects the need for monetary policy to cooperate with fiscal expansion. If the fundamentals remain unchanged, the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 is expected to reach around 1.7%. - In October, the short - and medium - term interest rates did not decline significantly. There is a possibility of a decline in short - and medium - term policy - financial bond yields due to the high certainty of loose liquidity. - After the resumption of bond - buying, short - term interest rates may gradually decline, and the specific situation depends on the scale and method of the central bank's bond - buying. - A relatively positive attitude towards bonds can be maintained. It is advisable to maintain a certain leverage, retain long - bond positions, and appropriately increase the holdings of some 3 - 5 - year interest - rate bonds to take advantage of the potential decline in short - term interest rates [27][28][30][34].

提醒：美联储为期两天的FOMC货币政策会议已经开幕。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of former President Trump's public statements on monetary policy, highlighting that his calls for interest rate cuts are often underestimated by the market and can even lead to an increase in Treasury yields, contrary to his intentions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction Analysis - Bloomberg's analysis shows that Trump's statements regarding interest rates are frequently undervalued by the market, resulting in rising Treasury yields instead of the desired rate cuts [3][4]. - The analysis employed a rigorous methodology, measuring market reactions based on Treasury yield changes 15 minutes before and one hour after Trump's statements [3][5]. Group 2: Data Analysis Methodology - To isolate market fluctuations unrelated to monetary policy, Bloomberg included stock prices as a reference indicator, establishing that if Treasury yields and stock prices move in opposite directions, it indicates a change in monetary policy expectations [5][6]. - Approximately half of Trump's interest rate-related statements can be considered effective policy signals, with minimal impact on 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, averaging close to zero [6]. Group 3: Powell's Influence - In contrast, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statements have a significant impact on the market, with data showing that his remarks can cause fluctuations in 2-year Treasury yields of up to 8 basis points and 10-year yields by 5 basis points [7][9]. - Powell's less frequent but more impactful statements are viewed as a clearer indicator of monetary policy direction compared to Trump's [9].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery and growth [1] - Six key areas of focus have been identified for future financial work, including enhancing financial regulation, improving services to the real economy, and preventing systemic financial risks [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The PBOC aims to create a suitable monetary and financial environment to consolidate and expand the positive momentum of economic recovery through appropriate monetary policy measures [1] - There is a focus on maintaining ample liquidity and ensuring that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations [1] Group 2: Financial Regulation and Risk Management - Strengthening and improving financial regulation is a priority, with an emphasis on enhancing regulatory quality and effectiveness [1] - The PBOC plans to combat illegal financial activities and establish a comprehensive governance network to address fraud and gambling-related financial issues [1] Group 3: Financial Services and Structural Reforms - The PBOC will enhance financial services to key sectors such as technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and foreign trade [2] - There is a commitment to deepen structural reforms in the financial supply side and promote high-level financial openness while ensuring national financial security [1][2] Group 4: Development of Financial Markets - The PBOC intends to develop a "technology board" in the bond market and promote reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Growth Enterprise Market to enhance the quality of equity investment [2] - Efforts will be made to advance the internationalization of the Renminbi and improve its functions in international transactions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to resume open market operations for government bonds, which is seen as a significant move to stabilize the financial market and enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy [1][3]. Group 1: Market Stability - The resumption of government bond trading is expected to provide a "stable price gauge" for the financial market, reassuring investors and reducing market volatility [3]. - The action is not viewed as a temporary measure but rather as a strategic move to refine the monetary policy toolkit, allowing for better coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Long-term investors are advised to focus on stability and precision in their investment strategies, suggesting that they should not react hastily to short-term market fluctuations [3]. - Investors are encouraged to monitor changes in the government bond yield curve and to hold onto quality bond funds rather than redeeming them prematurely [3]. - It is recommended to avoid low-quality investment products that are merely capitalizing on bond market trends, emphasizing the importance of selecting stable and transparent investment options [3].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported on the financial work since November 2024, highlighting reasonable growth in financial volume and historically low social financing costs [2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 18.4%, reaching a ten-year high, indicating improved market expectations and confidence [3][4] Financial Market Performance - As of September 2025, total assets of financial institutions exceeded 520 trillion yuan, with commercial banks' capital adequacy ratio at 15.36% and non-performing loan ratio at 1.52% [3] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was approximately 2.3 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the previous year's average of 700 billion yuan [3] - The yield on 10-year government bonds remained stable between 1.75% and 1.85%, reversing the downward trend observed in 2024 [3] Financing and Economic Support - From November 2024 to September 2025, 98 companies in the A-share market conducted initial public offerings, raising 91.8 billion yuan, with 86% being private enterprises [4] - Loans for technology, green projects, inclusive finance, elderly care, and digital economy sectors grew by 11.8%, 22.9%, 11.2%, 58.2%, and 12.9% respectively, all exceeding the overall loan growth rate [5] Risk Management and Regulatory Actions - The report noted a significant reduction in the number of financing platforms and the scale of operating financial debt, down 71% and 62% respectively since March 2023 [5] - The People's Bank of China imposed penalties on 1,978 entities, while the China Securities Regulatory Commission penalized 1,423 entities for regulatory violations [3] Future Policy Directions - The central bank plans to implement moderately loose monetary policies and strengthen financial regulation to curb irrational competition among financial institutions [6][7] - Emphasis will be placed on providing high-quality financial services to support key sectors such as technology innovation and small enterprises [6][7] - The report outlines a commitment to prevent systemic financial risks and enhance the financing system for the real estate sector [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is expected to cooperate with government bond supply, align with the current bond market yield curve, and supplement long - term liquidity for the banking system [2][13][19]. - The probability of an interest rate cut within the year has increased compared to the third quarter, while the probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut may decrease after restarting treasury bond trading, but it remains a direct option [3][25][26]. - For the subsequent bond market strategy, the decline space of bond interest rates needs further support. Attention can be paid to whether the central bank's bond - buying scale and maturity exceed expectations [4][27]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1.1 Why Restart Treasury Bond Trading? - **Cooperate with Government Bond Supply and Synergize Fiscal Efforts**: In 2025, the government bond issuance from November to December is expected to be around 4 trillion yuan, similar to the same period in 2024. The net financing scale is about 1.70 trillion yuan, significantly lower than 2.98 trillion yuan in 2024 due to the large maturity of treasury bonds in December. Restarting treasury bond trading helps the central bank cooperate with fiscal efforts [2][14]. - **The Bond Market Yield Curve Meets the Central Bank's Expectations and Market Risks Decline**: Since July 2025, the bond market sentiment has been weak, with the current fund duration at a low level. The 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y term spreads are both above 35bp, and the yield curve is steep. After restarting treasury bond trading, the short - term interest rate may decline more than the long - term interest rate, and the 30Y - 10Y spread may further compress [2][19]. - **Supplement Long - term Liquidity to the Banking System and Stabilize Liability Expectations**: As of September 2025, the central bank mainly provided medium - term liquidity through MLF and outright reverse repurchase, accounting for 91.52% of the annual net investment. The 1 - year inter - bank certificate of deposit rate has been rising, indicating that banks lack long - term funds [2][21]. 1.2 Will There Be Other Monetary Policy Coordination within the Year? - **Interest Rate Cut**: Externally, the pressure of RMB depreciation has decreased, and the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread has reduced the external constraints on China's interest rate cut. Domestically, economic growth has slowed down, and the policy - makers are determined to stabilize growth. The probability of an interest rate cut within the year has increased compared to the third quarter [3][25]. - **Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut**: Restarting treasury bond trading may reduce the probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut. However, the amount of long - term liquidity provided by treasury bond trading may not meet the banks' demand for long - term funds, so a reserve requirement ratio cut remains a direct option [3][26]. 1.3 How to View the Subsequent Bond Market Strategy? - Since the interest rate has declined significantly, further support is needed to open up the downward space. Attention can be paid to whether the central bank's bond - buying scale and maturity exceed expectations. Currently, the value of chasing and holding active bonds is not strong [4][27]. - **10 - year Treasury Bonds**: The main bond has switched to 250016, and the 250016 - 250011 spread may compress to about 3bp in an optimistic scenario [28]. - **10 - year China Development Bank Bonds**: Continue to focus on 250215. The uncertainty of 250220 becoming the main bond is high [28]. - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: For short - term trading, focus on 25T6. Consider holding non - active bonds such as 25T5, 24T1, 250002, and 25T3 [28]. - **Long - term Interest - rate Bonds**: Pay attention to 30 - year old bonds and 50 - year treasury bonds with slightly higher interest rates. For short - term trading with high liquidity requirements, focus on 25T6. For 10 - year interest rates, focus on 250016 and 250215. For medium - term interest - rate bonds, focus on 240006, 250007, and 250018 [29].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China is committed to implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery and maintain financial stability [1][4]. Monetary Policy Implementation - The effectiveness of existing monetary policies is being enhanced, with a focus on maintaining ample liquidity and low social financing costs, which are crucial for boosting market confidence and responding to external shocks [2][4]. - A new package of monetary policy measures was introduced in May 2025, contributing to a reasonable growth in financial totals [2]. Financial Market Stability - The financial market has withstood significant external shocks since April 2025, with improved expectations and heightened confidence among market participants [2]. - The Central Government has coordinated efforts to maintain market stability through a combination of policy tools, including the role of the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. as a stabilizing fund [2]. Sector-Specific Financial Services - Financial services in key areas such as technology, green finance, and digital economy have seen substantial growth, with loans in these sectors increasing by 11.8%, 22.9%, and 12.9% respectively, significantly outpacing overall loan growth [2]. International Financial Cooperation - The cross-border payment system for the Renminbi (CIPS) has become a primary channel for international transactions, with the Renminbi now the largest currency for cross-border payments in China and among the top three globally for trade financing [3]. - Financial openness is being expanded, with efforts to enhance the international role of the Renminbi and improve mechanisms for foreign investors [3]. Future Policy Directions - The focus will be on maintaining liquidity and aligning monetary supply growth with economic growth and price stability, while also ensuring the stability of the Renminbi exchange rate [4]. - Continued emphasis on high-quality financial services for the real economy, particularly in technology innovation, consumption, and small enterprises [4]. Financial Risk Management - There is a strong commitment to preventing systemic financial risks, with ongoing monitoring and assessment of potential risks in key sectors [5]. - Support for the market-oriented transformation of financing platforms and reforms for small financial institutions is prioritized [5].