Core Viewpoint - The current monetary policy is considered to be in a good position, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates for an extended period [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has kept the federal funds rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, following three consecutive rate cuts last autumn [2]. - The current monetary policy is viewed as suitable for a wait-and-see approach, allowing for assessment of recent data before making further adjustments [2]. - The inflation rate is expected to remain close to 3% this year, similar to the previous two years, while the long-term inflation target is set at 2% [2]. Inflation and Costs - There is a need for more decisive evidence that price levels are consistently declining before making any adjustments to interest rates [2]. - Concerns about tariffs impacting prices have been raised, with some companies reporting increased costs due to tariff hikes, leading to price increases for consumers [5]. - Rising electricity prices and healthcare costs are also contributing to overall cost pressures [5]. Employment Market - The labor market appears to be stabilizing, with the unemployment rate at 4.4%, similar to levels from September of the previous year [7]. - Initial jobless claims remain low, although some companies have announced layoffs [7]. - Economic growth is expected to accelerate this year due to previous rate cuts and fiscal support, potentially leading to a stronger labor market and a further decrease in the unemployment rate [7]. Banking System and Central Bank Independence - A robust banking system is crucial for the economy and effective transmission of monetary policy [8]. - The Federal Reserve can ensure the banking system remains a key pillar of economic growth through tailored regulatory adjustments [8]. - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have been highlighted, particularly in light of external pressures for significant rate cuts, with historical evidence suggesting that countries with weaker central bank independence face higher inflation [8].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.1%, the Nasdaq down 0.59%, and the S&P 500 down 0.33% [1] - Large tech stocks showed mixed results, with Oracle rising over 2% and Tesla over 1%, while Google and Broadcom fell over 1% [1] - The hotel and travel sectors saw significant gains, with Marriott up over 8% and Hilton up over 3% [1] - Storage and cryptocurrency stocks experienced notable declines, with Western Digital down over 8% and Coinbase down over 2% [1] - The Livermore Chinese concept stock index rose 1.07%, with notable gains from AutoHome (over 4%) and Tencent Music (over 3%) [1] Economic Data - U.S. retail sales for December 2025 were flat, missing expectations of a 0.4% increase, with prior values at 0.6% [5] - The export price index for December 2025 increased by 0.3%, exceeding the expected 0.1%, while the import price index also rose by 0.1%, matching expectations [5] - Analysis indicates that the stagnation in retail sales suggests consumers are being more cautious with spending, with declines in 8 out of 13 retail categories [6] - Despite expectations of tax refunds supporting early-year demand, concerns about high living costs and job market uncertainties persist among consumers [6] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% last month, following three consecutive rate cuts in the previous autumn [7] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated that current monetary policy is in a good position to keep rates unchanged for an extended period [6]

政策层面，关税还被赋予了更广泛的财政意义。米兰强调，关税收入在一定程度上增加了政府财政来源，对缓解基础财政赤字具有积极作用。对于当前财政 压力较大的美国而言，这一收入渠道被视为配合产业与贸易政策的重要工具，而不仅仅是贸易谈判中的筹码。 与此同时，美国最高法院正在审议部分关税措施的合法性，一旦裁决结果发生变化，现行贸易框架可能面临调整。此前特朗普方面已经明确表示，如果相关 政策被推翻，可能对经济和市场信心产生较大冲击。制度层面的不确定，使企业在投资和供应链布局上仍保持谨慎。 米兰也提到劳动力市场已经出现边际降温迹象，并认为当前利率水平偏高，未来存在下调空间。如果就业继续走弱，而关税对通胀的影响又保持温和，那么 货币政策面临的约束将进一步减轻。从FXTRADING角度来观察，关税争议本身对市场的直接冲击正在减弱，反映的是美国政策组合正在向财政扩张与货币 边际宽松并行的方向演变。如果就业降温趋势确认，而通胀未因关税明显反弹，美元中期强势逻辑可能逐步松动，市场重心将更多转向降息预期与增长放缓 之间的再平衡。 美联储理事米兰近日在一场公开活动中表示，过去一年市场对关税冲击的担忧明显被放大。从实际运行情况来看，无论是经济 ...

在哈马克看来，当前货币政策已接近中性水平，不对经济活动形成实质性抑制，利率未来上下行风险大 致均衡。她还提到正密切关注关税对价格的影响，不少企业反馈关税上调推高成本，部分已转嫁给消费 者，另有企业计划后续提价；电力和医疗保险费用上涨也在推高整体成本，目前无法判断这些成本压力 是否已见顶。 就业方面，哈马克表示劳动力市场趋于稳定，当前4.4%的失业率与去年9月水平接近，求职者数量与职 位空缺数量大致平衡，初请失业救济人数处于低位，尽管企业裁员通知数量与历史均值相当，但已有部 分公司宣布裁员计划。她预计在去年降息和财政政策支持下，今年经济增长将加快，带动企业扩大投 资、劳动力市场走强，年内失业率或进一步下降。 谈及银行体系时，哈马克指出稳健的银行体系对经济和货币政策传导至关重要，需通过调整监管与审慎 监督确保其成为经济增长支柱，过度放松监管会削弱银行韧性，承压时难以发挥作用。针对近期备受关 注的美联储独立性话题，她表示国际经验显示央行独立性较弱的国家往往通胀水平更高。 当地时间2月10日，今年拥有联邦公开市场委员会轮值投票权的克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克，在俄亥 俄州哥伦布市举行的俄亥俄银行联盟经济峰会上发表讲话 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has outlined its monetary policy approach for the next phase, emphasizing the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity and relatively loose social financing conditions [1][5]. Monetary Policy Tools - The report highlights the flexible and efficient application of RRR cuts and interest rate reductions as key monetary policy tools [2]. Interest Rates - The aim is to promote a low level of comprehensive financing costs in society [3]. Exchange Rates - The report stresses the importance of maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [4]. Bank Deposits and Asset Management Products - By Q3 2025, the growth rate of household deposits has shown a high-level decline, raising concerns about the "loss" of bank deposits. In contrast, the scale of asset management products has grown rapidly [4][11]. - The report suggests that viewing asset management products and bank deposits together can provide better insights into the liquidity conditions of the financial system [11][12]. Guiding Financial Growth - The report emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery as key considerations [5]. - It calls for a balanced allocation of credit and a reasonable growth of financial totals, aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [5]. Structural Policies - The report outlines effective implementation of various structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [5][10]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination - The report discusses the deepening coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, with a focus on expanding domestic demand through a series of policy measures announced in January 2026 [7][8]. - Three main coordination methods are identified: maintaining market liquidity to support government bond issuance, using "re-lending + fiscal subsidies" to optimize financial resource allocation, and sharing risk costs to enhance financing support for enterprises [8][9]. Asset Management Products Growth - The rapid growth of asset management products is attributed to investors' assessment of returns and risks under market-oriented interest rates. The trend shows a shift from bank deposits to asset management products since 2024 [12]. - The report indicates that if household deposits are converted into asset management products, they will eventually flow back into the banking system, thus maintaining overall liquidity [12][13]. Overall Liquidity Trends - The total liquidity indicator, which aggregates various liquid financial instruments, has shown stable growth in recent years, reflecting the effectiveness of the PBOC's policies in meeting liquidity demands [13].

Core Viewpoint - The strategist from State Street Bank, Lee Ferridge, indicates a potential 10% decline in the US dollar this year, particularly after the next Federal Reserve chair takes office, leading to increased uncertainty in monetary policy [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts around June, with at least two cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of the year [1]. - Ferridge suggests that a third rate cut could occur in 2026, influenced by potential pressure from President Trump on the new chair to lower borrowing costs [1]. - He emphasizes that the Fed's policy is entering a more uncertain phase, with the possibility of three rate cuts being plausible [1]. Group 2: Impact on the US Dollar - The US dollar index has declined approximately 1.7% this year, following a nearly 8% drop last year, marking the worst annual performance since 2017 [4]. - Concerns over trade tensions, uncertainty in the US fiscal outlook, and Trump's ongoing pressure on the Fed have negatively impacted the dollar [4]. - Ferridge notes that if Kevin Walsh, a former Fed governor, is confirmed as the new chair, he may implement a more accommodative monetary policy as desired by Trump [4]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Currency Hedging - A deeper rate cut would lower the cost for foreign investors to hedge their US assets, increasing their hedging activities and putting further pressure on the dollar [1]. - Currently, the hedging ratio for foreign investors in US dollar assets is about 58%, down from over 78% before the Fed began raising rates in 2022 [4]. - Ferridge mentions that if Walsh takes over and begins sustained rate cuts, a significant sell-off of the dollar could commence, with room for increased hedging by foreign investors [4].

Monetary Policy Overview - The central bank's report emphasizes the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity and relatively loose social financing conditions [1][2] - The report highlights the importance of aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [2] Interest Rate Management - The report outlines plans to further improve the interest rate adjustment framework, strengthen the guidance of central bank policy rates, and enhance the market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanism [2] - The goal is to lower bank funding costs and promote low-level operation of comprehensive social financing costs [2] Exchange Rate Stability - The report calls for maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, using a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand [2] - It emphasizes the need to strengthen expectations management and prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [2] Financial Structure and Support - The report discusses the implementation of structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [2][3] - It highlights the collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies to enhance financial support for these sectors [4][5] Asset Management Products and Deposits - The report notes a decline in the growth rate of household deposits in Q3 2025, while asset management products have seen rapid growth, indicating a shift in financial asset allocation [8][9] - The total assets of asset management products reached 120 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13.1% [8] Liquidity Assessment - The report suggests that combining asset management products with bank deposits provides a better perspective for assessing the liquidity conditions of the financial system [9][10] - The total liquidity indicator, which aggregates various liquid financial instruments, showed a year-on-year growth of approximately 8.1% by the end of 2025, indicating stable growth trends [10]

Group 1 - December retail sales in the U.S. showed an unexpected 0% month-over-month change, indicating weaker-than-expected consumer support for the economy during the holiday shopping season [1] - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that December retail sales, unadjusted for inflation, fell short of the expected 0.4% increase, also lower than the 0.6% growth in November [1] - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles and gas stations, decreased by 0.1% month-over-month [1] Group 2 - Among 13 retail categories, 8 experienced a decline in sales, with clothing and furniture stores seeing year-over-year drops, while building materials and sporting goods stores reported growth [3] - The spending power of low-income households remains weak, despite rising stock markets potentially supporting high-income household spending [3] - Restaurant and bar spending, the only service category in the retail report, saw a slight month-over-month decline of 0.1% after a significant increase in the previous month [3] Group 3 - Severe cold weather in late January hindered economic activity across much of the U.S., complicating the assessment of the true consumer demand fundamentals at the beginning of the year [4] - Economists expect that tax refunds early in the year will support consumer spending, with household spending projected to contribute over 2 percentage points to fourth-quarter economic growth [4] Group 4 - Recent corporate trends indicate a divergence in consumer spending patterns across different income groups, with Levi's noting no observed contraction in spending despite price increases, while PepsiCo highlighted significant budget pressures on low- to middle-income consumers [5] - Lululemon has observed a shift among U.S. consumers towards more cost-effective spending choices [5] - The retail data may be influenced by significant discounts during the holiday season, primarily reflecting goods consumption, which accounts for about one-third of total household spending in the U.S. [5]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 311.4 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 205.9 billion yuan after 105.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term maturities rose across the board, with the overnight Shibor increasing by 9.20 basis points to 1.3620%, the 7-day Shibor up by 2.60 basis points to 1.5310%, and the 14-day Shibor rising by 2.00 basis points to 1.6040% [1][2] - In the interbank pledged repo market, all varieties saw an increase, with the overnight weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 rising by 9.2 basis points and 9.0 basis points, respectively, to 1.3653% and 1.4598%, while transaction volumes decreased significantly [4] Group 2 - The money market rates on February 10 showed a tightening trend in the morning, transitioning to a balanced state in the afternoon, with overnight deposit rates fluctuating between 1.60% and 1.62% [8] - The secondary market for negotiable certificates of deposit was active, with short-term yields rising significantly due to the tightening of the interbank funding market, while long-end yields remained stable [9] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the importance of credit reporting in the construction of the social credit system, aiming to enhance financial services for the real economy and mitigate financial risks [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, has shown strong resilience and reversed previous low trends, indicating a robust rebound in the current trading week [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold has transformed the psychological resistance level of $5000 into a solid support base, opening at $4989 and rising approximately $100 to around $5063 [1][3]. - Silver has demonstrated even more aggressive performance, breaking through the $80 mark and currently trading above $83.50, reflecting a gain of over 7% [1][3]. Group 2: Macro Fundamentals - The significant weakening of the US dollar has been a core driver for the surge in precious metals, with market participants awaiting key economic data releases, including non-farm payrolls and consumer price index (CPI) [2][4]. - Financial markets are pricing in at least two rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the year, influenced by expectations of weakening labor market data [2][4]. - The US dollar index fell by 0.84% to around 96.91, nearing a four-month low, which has created upward space for non-USD currencies and precious metals [2][4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Ichimoku cloud analysis indicates that both gold and silver are trading above the cloud, with a bullish signal represented by the green color of the cloud, suggesting that recent price corrections are merely short-term technical adjustments within a long-term upward trend [2][4]. - This stable technical structure lays a solid foundation for the continuation of the upward trend in precious metals [2][4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - With key resistance levels successfully occupied by bulls and positive alignment of technical indicators and macro expectations, it is highly likely that gold and silver will maintain their upward momentum in the upcoming trading cycle [3][5]. - The involvement of short covering and trend traders is expected to further drive prices upward, continuing the rebound narrative in the precious metals market [3][5].