Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's assessment of the current economic environment is stabilizing, but this stability does not indicate a demand for rapid policy adjustments [1] - Powell described the U.S. economy as having a "solid foundation," with AI-related investments supporting economic activity, indicating resilience in growth without significant downward pressure requiring stimulus [3] - The labor market is transitioning from a tight state to a more balanced phase, with terms like "stabilizing" and "continuing to cool" used to describe employment conditions [3] Group 2 - Powell emphasized that current interest rates are within a reasonable estimate of the "neutral rate," suggesting that monetary policy has transitioned from a tightening phase to one of observation and assessment [4] - There is no clear guidance on potential rate cuts, with Powell indicating that future policy relaxation could depend on factors like the reduction of tariff impacts, while also cautioning against potential downward risks in the labor market [4] - The Fed's recent meeting focused on confirming the current situation rather than signaling a shift in policy direction, emphasizing that future adjustments will depend on data changes [5]

"通常情况下，只有当你非常明确地认为在此时此刻这是一件重要的事，你才会投反对票。 如果你像个'死硬派'一样，摆出一副'无论发生什么，我在每次会议上都要投反对票'的架 势，那你甚至都不用出席了。因为大家都知道你会怎么做。所以重要的是，如果要投反对 票，一定要谨慎行事，要有正当理由，并且确保不会演变成惯性反对的情况。" 沃勒目前还算不上是惯性反对者，但在最近两次未能如他（以及特朗普）所愿的会议上，他确实是连投 了两张反对票。 美联储决策者在周四决定维持利率不变，而当天的重磅消息之一是美联储理事沃勒对这一政策决定投下 了鸽派反对票，这一决定显然能让他博得美国总统特朗普的欢心。遗憾的是，这将带来声誉上的代价， 无论是对这位理事个人，还是对美联储这一机构而言。 众所周知，沃勒是下一任美联储主席的四位最终候选人之一。特朗普首要考虑的是选出一个能带来更低 利率的人选，而在Kalshi上，沃勒的胜率在当地时间周三一度从周二的8%飙升至15%。令人惋惜的是， 特朗普正在迫使一位本应受人尊敬的公职人员不得不接受这种忠诚度测试。 华尔街部分人士长期以来一直支持沃勒，正是因为他们认为面对特朗普从白宫干预货币政策的赤裸裸企 图下，他是 ...

鲍威尔表示，他认为当前的联邦基金利率接近中性利率，这一点也得到公开市场委员会成员的广泛认 同。 北京时间1月29日，美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，在连续三次降息后，绝大多数公开市场委 员会成员都支持暂停降息。 "我的很多同事都认为，从最新数据来看，很难说当前的货币政策具有明显的限制性。"鲍威尔说道。 此次维持利率不变的议息决议有2张反对票，分别来自美联储理事沃勒和米兰，他们支持降息25个基 点。 ...

Pepperston分析师Michael Brown表示，政策声明几乎没有变化，尽管对经济状况的评估有所上调，以体 现"稳健"的增长步调。他表示，注意力将转向新闻发布会，届时美联储主席鲍威尔可能会提到，目前的 联邦基金利率已处于中性利率可能存在的合理估算范围内，但他可能会坚决回避任何关于其5月之后的 问题。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates between 3.50% and 3.75%, with attention shifting to whether this will be a "dovish pause" or an "hawkish pause" [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Economists unanimously expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged, with 58% predicting rates will remain stable throughout the first quarter [3] - The money market currently prices in a reduction of approximately 45 basis points by the end of the year, with the first 25 basis point cut potentially occurring as early as July [3] - Goldman Sachs describes the upcoming meeting as "uneventful," expecting no changes to the federal funds rate and minimal guidance on future policy [3] Group 2: Statement Adjustments - Institutions anticipate several adjustments in the statement, including an upgrade of economic growth assessment from "moderate" to "solid" [4] - The Fed is expected to remove language regarding "increased risks to employment," indicating reduced concerns about the labor market [4] - Despite recent core PCE data being relatively mild, the statement is likely to maintain that "inflation has risen in recent months and remains elevated" [4] Group 3: Forward Guidance - The market expects the retention of language indicating consideration of further adjustments to the target range, suggesting a dovish stance [7] - A shift back to language indicating any adjustments would imply a longer pause, constituting a hawkish pause [7] Group 4: Press Conference Focus - Analysts will focus on three key areas during Powell's press conference: assessment of the labor market, inflation trends, and neutral interest rate judgments [8] - The market will closely watch whether Powell emphasizes the December unemployment rate drop to 4.4% or downplays it as a one-month data point [8] - Powell's comments on neutral interest rates will be significant, especially if he highlights improvements in productivity [8] Group 5: Political Pressures - The Federal Reserve faces unprecedented political pressure from the White House, with ongoing investigations into Powell and debates regarding presidential powers over Fed officials [9] - Analysts expect Powell to avoid political questions during the press conference, reiterating the Fed's independence in monetary policy decisions [9] Group 6: Divergence in Rate Cut Expectations - There is notable divergence among institutions regarding the rate cut path for the year, with Goldman Sachs predicting cuts in June and September, while Barclays expects cuts in June and December [9] - Morgan Stanley notes that 12 out of 19 Fed officials anticipated at least one more rate cut this year, but there is significant disagreement among them [9] Group 7: Market Impact - Institutions generally expect limited price volatility from the upcoming meeting, with the U.S. interest rate market already pricing in the unchanged rate [12] - The meeting is likely to produce limited net price action unless a significant surprise occurs [12] - It is anticipated that at least one dissenting vote will arise, highlighting ongoing divisions within the committee [12]

尽管日本央行强调，12月19日的加息是由于经济发展符合其预期，但会议纪要暗示，决策成员对日元疲 软影响的警惕性正在增强。该次会议召开时，日元汇率约为155，而2025年全年平均汇率约为149.70。 在上周五结束的最新一次议息会议上，日本央行选择维持基准利率不变，但会议中出现一张反对票，该 名理事呼吁央行再次加息。此外，日本央行在季度经济展望中上调了多项通胀预期，上调幅度超出经济 学家此前预期，也让市场加大了对央行或在4月前再次加息的押注。日本央行下一次议息决议将于3月19 日公布。 会议纪要中还有一位理事指出，结合当前加息对日本经济和通胀的影响仍较为有限的现状来看，日本央 行距离中性利率水平仍有"相当大"的空间。该理事大概率是日本央行两位最鹰派的理事Naoki Tamura或 Hajime Takata之一。 市场此前已充分消化日本央行12月的加息动作，因此加息落地后日元汇率依旧维持弱势，最终在1月14 日触及159.45的18个月低点。 不过自上周五以来，日元汇率出现快速升值。当时有消息称美国相关部门开展汇率核查，市场对当局可 能出手干预汇市的预期升温。周三东京早盘，日元兑美元汇率进一步升至152.10， ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京1月27日电中国外汇投资研究院金融分析师张正阳表示，从目前看，日本央行的理想路径 是将政策利率稳步提升至对经济既无刺激亦无抑制作用的中性利率水平。然而，中性利率本身是一个无 法精确观测的理论概念，对日本而言，人口老龄化、潜在增长率低迷都是潜在难题，加息节奏将极度依 赖数据。日本央行承诺会谨慎推进，任何一项数据疲软都可能导致加息暂停。 短期看，加息通过抑制日元贬值，有助于缓解输入性通胀，为物价稳定创造外部条件。但长期而言，物 价的真正稳定，依赖于薪资与物价形成可持续的良性循环以及企业生产率的提升。加息只是为这一循环 创造一个汇率不过度扭曲、通胀预期稳定的宏观环境。若加息过程操之过急，扼杀了内需复苏，可能导 致经济再度陷入停滞。从当下视角评估，未来加息或出现在2026下半年。 ...

市场普遍预计，美联储将在本周暂停其降息周期。随着就业市场趋于平稳，在经历数月分歧加剧之后， 央行内部在利率问题上料重新形成一定程度的共识。 数位官员 —— 包括一些与美联储主席接近的人士 —— 已释放信号称，在连续三次降息之后，目前的利 率水平已经处于合适位置：既能支撑就业，又能继续对通胀形成下行压力。 Vanguard Group资深美国经济学家Josh Hirt表示，利率基本已落在对中性利率估计的区间内。他所说的 中性利率，是指利率既不抑制也不刺激经济的水平。他表示，这会带来更谨慎的态度、对进一步降息的 紧迫性降低。 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威 尔 本次会议也给美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔一个机会，把外界的注意力从围绕美联储的政治与法律风波中 拉回到央行的核心职责，即控制通胀并实现就业最大化。不过，这种喘息可能只是短暂的。美联储维持 利率不变，可能只会加剧美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的不满，特朗普一直希望利率能大幅下调。 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的声明将于华盛顿时间周三下午2点（北京时间周四凌晨3点）发布，鲍 威尔将于2：30（北京时间周四凌晨3：30）召开新闻发布会。 市场将从鲍威尔的表态中寻找线索：美联储可能 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Chair Nomination Dynamics - The nomination dynamics for the Federal Reserve Chair have shifted, with Riedel leading with a 53% probability as of January 24, 2026, while Walsh and Hassett have dropped to 28% and 6% respectively [4][10] - Riedel advocates for a neutral interest rate of around 3%, aligning with the White House's desire to manage fiscal expansion, marking a shift from "defensive rules" to "pragmatic growth" [4][11] - Walsh, despite his strong Wall Street connections, is viewed with caution due to his potential hawkish stance, which raises concerns about loyalty to the administration [4][12] Group 2: Japan's Bond and Currency Crisis - Japan is experiencing a "bond and currency double whammy," with 10-year JGB yields reaching a 20-year high, driven by concerns over fiscal discipline and rising inflation [4][27] - The core CPI in Japan, excluding fresh food and energy, rose to 2.9% in December 2025, indicating a shift from externally driven inflation to persistent internal inflation [4][30] - The Bank of Japan is facing a dilemma in balancing inflation control, bond market stability, and supporting internal growth, leading to a potential shift in monetary policy [4][35] Group 3: Global Pricing Logic Shift - A paradigm shift is occurring in global pricing logic from "growth pricing" to "credit premium," with balance sheet defense becoming a core source of excess returns [4][50] - The divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan is compressing the global credit expansion channel, making it difficult to lower long-term asset costs significantly [4][46] - Investment strategies should focus on quality, avoiding high-leverage small-cap stocks in the US and relying on dividend assets in Hong Kong to withstand rising offshore discount rates [4][55]

Core Viewpoint - Bond investors have been betting that the successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will push for interest rate cuts, and this speculation will face a test as President Donald Trump is expected to announce his nominee soon [1] Group 1: Market Reactions and Expectations - The market has assumed that all four final candidates for the Fed chairmanship will align with Trump's repeated calls for rate cuts, leading to a phenomenon known as "steepening of the yield curve," where short-term Treasury yields outperform long-term ones [1] - If investors worry that Trump's nominee may undermine the Fed's independence, the market might raise borrowing costs to offset the economic boost from official rate cuts, potentially increasing price pressures [1] - A recent market movement occurred when Trump signaled reluctance to appoint Kevin Hassett, previously a leading candidate, resulting in a sell-off of U.S. Treasuries and a reduction in the market's pricing of rate cuts to less than two times this year [1] Group 2: Candidate Analysis - **Kevin Walsh**: Has a 44% nomination probability and is viewed as relatively hawkish. His potential appointment could lead to higher Treasury yields, and he may advocate for a combination of "balance sheet reduction + rate cuts," which could negatively impact inflation-linked long-term bonds [3] - **Rick Reed**: With a 32% nomination probability, he is seen as a potential dove, and his initial appointment might lead to a weaker dollar and a steepening yield curve. He has suggested that two rate cuts this year to around 3% would be appropriate [4] - **Christopher Waller**: Holds a 13% nomination probability and is considered a "safe choice." His appointment may lead to a slight decrease in long-term Treasury yields and a flatter yield curve [5] - **Kevin Hassett**: Has a 5% nomination probability. Recent signals from Trump suggest a preference for Hassett, which could lead to lower short-term rates but higher long-term rates. However, his nomination prospects have dimmed due to political backlash [6][7]