1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 16, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds showed mixed trends, with those of 1 - 5Y maturities declining by about 0.2 - 1.25bp, 7Y and 30Y maturities rising by 0.10bp and 0.15bp respectively, and the 10Y maturity yield falling by 0.05bp. Treasury bond futures strengthened collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.02%, 0.01%, 0.01%, and 0.05% respectively. The central bank shifted to net injection, and the weighted average rate of DR007 rose to around 1.52% and fluctuated [3]. - In terms of the domestic fundamentals, the economic data in May was weak. Industrial added - value declined slightly, social retail sales rebounded unexpectedly, the scale of fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate improved month - on - month. Financial data continued to show a differentiated trend, with government bonds still being the main support for social financing. Affected by the cooling of the real estate market and the replacement of hidden debts, the corporate credit demand weakened. In the trade aspect, the pulling effect of pre - exported goods continued to weaken, and exports declined slightly in May [3]. - Overseas, the US labor market continued to show resilience. The non - farm payrolls data in May was higher than expected, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged. The impact of tariffs on prices had not yet appeared. In May, the CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year. The market's expectation for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve was adjusted to September [3]. - In terms of strategy, currently, China's domestic demand still needs to be boosted, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Coupled with the central bank's second conduct of outright reverse repurchase this month to continuously maintain the balance and looseness of the capital market, treasury bond futures may maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short term. It is recommended that investors maintain a certain position. However, recently, the short - end treasury bond futures have been significantly weaker than the long - end, and the market differentiation is relatively serious. As the tax payment period approaches, market sentiment tends to be cautious. The weakening of the short - end and the increase in profit - taking orders may drive the yield to rise slightly in the short term and trigger the risk of a compensatory decline in the long - end. Attention should be paid to the risk of a compensatory decline in the long - end due to the short - term spread correction [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 109.015 (up 0.01%), 106.145 (unchanged), 102.466 (up 0.02%), and 120.520 (up 0.05%) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 49941 (up 963), 46176 (down 294), 24997 (down 626), and 53995 (up 235) respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads of TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509, and TS2512 - 2509 were - 0.18 (down 0.01), - 0.03 (down 0.03), 0.06 (up 0.00), and 0.12 (up 0.01) respectively. Other spreads also showed different changes [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts remained unchanged at 194978, 151398, 117711, and 106182 respectively. The net short positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL increased by 2198, 1859, 1730, and 665 respectively [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds showed different changes, such as 250007.IB (down 0.0222) and 2500802.IB (up 0.0225) [2]. - **Active Treasury Bonds**: The yields of active treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 0.40bp, 1.50bp, 0.50bp, 0.35bp, and 0.40bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The overnight silver - pledged repo rate decreased by 6.28bp to 1.3872%, and the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate increased by 2.09bp to 1.5209%. Shibor overnight decreased by 2.30bp to 1.3880%, and Shibor 7 - day increased by 0.20bp to 1.5100% [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - On June 16, the central bank planned to conduct a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 6 months (182 days). The issuance scale of open - market reverse repurchase was 242 billion yuan, and the maturity scale was 173.8 billion yuan, with a net injection of 68.2 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 3.5 Economic Data - **Industrial and Investment Data**: In May 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to May was 19.1947 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment remained flat year - on - year. The real estate development investment from January to May was 3.6234 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [2]. - **Consumption Data**: In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.1326 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 20.3171 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [2]. - **Industrial Added - value Data**: In May, the value - added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year [2]. 3.6 Key Data to Watch - June 17, 20:30, US May retail sales monthly rate - June 18, 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14 (in ten thousand people) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a significant increase in liquidity operations through a buyout reverse repurchase agreement, indicating a proactive approach to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system amid high demand due to upcoming financial obligations [3][4]. Group 1: Liquidity Operations - On June 16, the PBOC will conduct a buyout reverse repurchase operation of 400 billion yuan with a six-month term, marking the second such announcement within a month [1][3]. - The PBOC has been active in reverse repurchase operations for nine consecutive months, with amounts ranging from 500 billion to 1.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a shift in the timing of disclosures from month-end to earlier announcements [3][4]. - The liquidity demand in June is heightened due to a record 4.2 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit maturing, with significant amounts due in the first half of the month [3][4]. Group 2: Market Impact and Policy Signals - The increase in buyout reverse repurchase operations is aimed at stabilizing the banking system's liquidity during a peak period of government bond issuance and maturing interbank certificates [4]. - The PBOC's actions signal a commitment to using quantitative monetary policy tools to support credit expansion and enhance counter-cyclical adjustments [4]. - Recent data shows that overnight funding rates have stabilized around 1.4%, with the seven-day funding rate between 1.5% and 1.65%, indicating a controlled liquidity environment [5]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts expect that the liquidity fluctuations at the end of the quarter will be manageable, with the PBOC likely to continue utilizing various monetary policy tools to ensure reasonable liquidity across different maturities [5]. - The anticipated government bond issuance pressure in June is expected to be lower than in May, suggesting a balanced approach to managing liquidity and maturing monetary policy tools [5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a buyback reverse repurchase operation of 400 billion yuan to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, indicating a proactive approach to monetary policy amid significant government bond issuance and high maturity of interbank certificates of deposit [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - On June 16, the PBOC will conduct a buyback reverse repurchase operation of 400 billion yuan with a six-month term [1] - In June, the PBOC has already announced two buyback reverse repurchase operations totaling 10,000 billion yuan for three months and 4,000 billion yuan for six months, with additional maturities of 5,000 billion yuan and 7,000 billion yuan respectively [1] - This results in a net injection of 200 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations by June 16 [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The increase in reverse repurchase operations is aimed at ensuring liquidity in the banking system during a peak period of interbank certificate maturities and large-scale government bond issuance [1] - The actions signal a commitment to using quantitative monetary policy tools to support credit expansion and enhance counter-cyclical adjustments [1] - The transparency of monetary policy operations has improved, which is expected to better guide and stabilize market expectations [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on June 16, with a term of 6 months, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1] - Earlier in June, the PBOC announced a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation for 3 months, establishing a solid foundation for overall liquidity throughout the month [1] - By June 16, the PBOC will implement a net injection of 200 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, considering the maturity of 5 trillion yuan in 3-month and 7 trillion yuan in 6-month reverse repos [1] Group 2 - Experts indicate that June is a critical period for liquidity assessment, with high demand for liquidity from financial institutions due to the large-scale maturity of interbank certificates of deposit [2] - The PBOC is expected to continue using various liquidity management tools, including reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF), to ensure sufficient liquidity in the banking system [2] - This approach is crucial for increasing the availability of credit to enterprises and households, as well as reducing financing costs for the real economy [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a “Firm Hold” rating for the bond futures market [1] Core Viewpoint - The bullish sentiment in the bond futures market is strengthening, and it is recommended to hold positions firmly. The early release of the outright reverse repurchase by the central bank can effectively boost market expectations of monetary easing and confidence in monetary policy. The clear signal of liquidity support from the central bank can support the medium - term upward trend [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Disk Review - Bond futures opened higher in the morning and remained strong throughout the day, closing up across the board. The long - end contracts showed more significant catch - up gains than the short - end ones. In the cash bond market, the long - end interest rates declined slightly during the session, but the decline widened around 3 p.m. possibly due to the fermentation of market sentiment [1] 2. Intraday News - On June 5, local time, a U.S. judge blocked Trump's ban on international students at Harvard University from entering the U.S. Harvard filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration's decision [2] 3. Market Judgment - The speculation about the China - U.S. phone call on Thursday evening has settled. The content of the call was far from the rumors. The market's reaction to China - U.S. negotiation news has been weak recently. More importantly, the central bank's early announcement of the outright reverse repurchase can boost market expectations of monetary easing. The central bank's support for liquidity through various means gives a clear signal of protecting liquidity. The trading idea of restarting bond purchases can be compared to the previous interest - rate cut trading. Although the net injection of the outright reverse repurchase and MLF reduces the possibility of restarting bond purchases in the short term, the expectation will be postponed rather than falsified, and the consistent easing expectation can support the medium - term upward trend [3] 4. Data Overview - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On June 6, 2025, compared with June 5, 2025, TS2509 rose 0.014 to 102.448, TF2509 rose 0.065 to 106.125, T2509 rose 0.165 to 108.9, and TL2509 rose 0.36 to 119.72 [4] - **Contract Positions and Changes**: TS contract positions increased by 104 to 121,727, TF contract positions increased by 958 to 169,870, T contract positions increased by 9,149 to 203,694, and TL contract positions increased by 3,512 to 117,782 [4] - **Basis and Changes**: TS basis (CTD) rose 0.0065 to - 0.0721, TF basis (CTD) rose 0.0151 to - 0.0084, T basis (CTD) rose 0.0442 to - 0.0138, and TL basis (CTD) rose 0.0726 to 0.6076 [4] - **Trading Volume and Changes**: TS main contract trading volume decreased by 14,127 to 34,876, TF main contract trading volume decreased by 24,020 to 49,178, T main contract trading volume decreased by 10,218 to 54,263, and TL main contract trading volume increased by 3,627 to 70,269 [4] - **Funding Rates and Changes**: DR001 decreased 0.0013 to 1.412, DR007 decreased 0.004 to 1.5509, and DR014 increased 0.0056 to 1.5892 [4] - **Funding Trading Volume and Changes**: DR001 trading volume increased by 2662.79 billion to 26201.6365 billion, DR007 trading volume decreased by 249.2774 billion to 854.1969 billion, and DR014 trading volume increased by 23.235 billion to 159.745 billion [4]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a strong consolidation, with expectations that the central bank will maintain its current policy on reverse repos to ensure liquidity in the banking system [1][5][7]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.35% to 119.780, and the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.17% to 108.925 [2]. - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined slightly, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.25 basis points to 1.6655% [2]. Monetary Policy Actions - The central bank conducted a 1350 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a total of 2911 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1561 billion yuan [5][6]. - The central bank is set to conduct a 10,000 billion yuan buyout reverse repo operation for three months, marking the first public operation of this kind at the beginning of the month [5][7]. Institutional Insights - Citic Securities suggests that the buyout reverse repo operations will continue to be a channel for medium to long-term liquidity, with pricing becoming more market-oriented [7]. - Dongfang Jincheng notes that the central bank's announcement of large-scale buyout reverse repos is likely related to the peak of interbank certificate maturities in June, which amounts to 4.16 trillion yuan [7]. - Huachuang Fixed Income indicates that the central bank's approach to announcing operation scales in advance will help institutions manage liquidity better [7].

上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领98元券包 ， 优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先 得！ 央行6月5日发布公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年6月6日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利 率招标、多重价位中标方式 开展10000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天） 。 央行首次提前公告买断式逆回购 相比以往每月最后一个交易日才发布的公告节奏，本次操作提前一天披露，引发市场广泛关注。东方金 诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，6月央行有5000亿元3个月期和7000亿元6个月期买断式逆回购到期，这意 味着6月6日央行将实施5000亿3个月期逆回购加量操作，6月整体逆回购操作情况要看央行月末是否还有 新的操作公告。 整体来看，6月买断式逆回购到期规模共计1.2万亿元，若仅6日操作1万亿元，预计当月实现净回笼2000 亿元。中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，本次操作在模式上与MLF高度趋同，包括招标方式、定价机 制与公告节奏，预计未来买断式逆回购将与MLF一道，共同构成中长期基础流动性工具的"组合拳"。 从价格机制来看，买断式逆回购与MLF同样采取多重价位中标机制，进一步提升操作的市场化定价程 度。明明认为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy despite a net withdrawal of liquidity through reverse repos in May, indicating a stable approach to managing market liquidity [1][4]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - In May, the PBOC conducted a total of 700 billion yuan in reverse repo operations, with 400 billion yuan for 3-month (91 days) and 300 billion yuan for 6-month (182 days) maturities [3]. - The net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan in reverse repos does not imply a tightening of market liquidity, as the PBOC has various channels for injecting liquidity, including Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and structural tools [1][4]. Group 2: MLF and Liquidity Management - The MLF has seen a net injection of 375 billion yuan in May, reflecting the PBOC's commitment to maintaining medium-term liquidity [1][4]. - The PBOC's reliance on MLF has increased since the introduction of fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price auctions for MLF operations, which helps stabilize expectations for financial institutions [4]. Group 3: Government Bond Transactions - The PBOC has not conducted any government bond transactions since January, with expectations to resume operations in July or August, depending on market conditions [5][6]. - The resumption of government bond transactions is seen as urgent to enhance the PBOC's holdings of government debt and to support the establishment of a sovereign credit model for currency issuance [6].

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of false breakouts in trading, suggesting that recognizing these can lead to more confident counter-trading actions [1] - It highlights the current macroeconomic environment, indicating a balanced and slightly loose funding situation with a small decline in long-term bond yields [1][3] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 291.1 billion yuan, with a net injection of 148.6 billion yuan after 142.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. appellate court temporarily reinstated Trump tariffs, contributing to a weak stock market and a slight decline in bond market rates [2][3] - The 10-year government bond yield opened slightly lower and fluctuated, with the lowest rate reaching 1.667% before closing at 1.675% [3][4] - Market participants were closely monitoring the central bank's announcements regarding bond purchases, although no such operations were conducted, leading to a slight rebound in rates [3][4]

央行：5月以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展了7000亿元买断式逆回购操作 智通财经5月30日电，央行数据显示，5月以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展了7000亿元买 断式逆回购操作。 ...