Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is continuing to inject liquidity into the banking system through various monetary policy tools, including a significant increase in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations, to support economic growth and stabilize market expectations [1][2][3]. Group 1: MLF Operations - On August 25, 2025, the PBOC will conduct a 600 billion MLF operation with a one-year term, marking the sixth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [1]. - The net injection of liquidity in August is 600 billion, following a net injection of 300 billion from previous operations [1]. Group 2: Reasons for Increased Liquidity - The increase in MLF operations is attributed to three main factors: the peak period of government bond issuance, the need for financial institutions to enhance credit supply, and rising medium to long-term market interest rates [2]. - The PBOC's actions reflect a coordinated effort between monetary and fiscal policies to support credit expansion and meet financing needs of enterprises and households [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The likelihood of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in the short term is low, with the PBOC expected to maintain liquidity through MLF and reverse repo operations [3]. - There is a possibility of further RRR cuts and interest rate reductions in the fourth quarter, depending on external conditions and domestic economic indicators [3].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 600 billion MLF operation on August 25, with a net injection of 300 billion MLF in August, marking the sixth consecutive month of increased operations [1] - As of August 22, the PBOC also conducted a net injection of 300 billion reverse repos, leading to a total net liquidity injection of 600 billion in August, which is double that of the previous month and the largest since February 2025 [1] - The PBOC's actions reflect a coordinated effort between monetary and fiscal policies to support credit expansion and meet financing needs of enterprises and households [1] Group 2 - Recent market expectations and a strong stock market have led to rising medium- to long-term market interest rates, prompting the PBOC to increase fund injections to stabilize market expectations and maintain liquidity [3] - The PBOC's continued net injection of medium-term liquidity signals a supportive monetary policy stance, despite a stable macroeconomic environment in the first half of the year [3] - Looking ahead, the likelihood of a reserve requirement ratio cut is low, with the PBOC expected to maintain liquidity through MLF and reverse repos, suggesting a stable yet slightly loose liquidity environment in the second half of the year [3]

Group 1 - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 361.2 billion yuan with a fixed interest rate of 1.40% on August 22, maintaining the previous rate [1] - The total net injection through reverse repos this week reached 1,365.2 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous week, where operations exceeded 200 billion yuan on multiple days [1] - The increase in reverse repo operations is aimed at ensuring sufficient liquidity in the banking system to meet the demand for government bond issuance during the peak period in August and September [1] Group 2 - The central bank is expected to utilize various monetary policy tools, including reverse repos and MLF, to enhance liquidity management in the short to medium term [2] - Following the May reserve requirement ratio cut, the average reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions is 6.2%, with some rural small financial institutions facing a "hidden lower limit" of 5% [2] - There is an expectation for further reserve requirement ratio cuts and improvements in the reserve requirement system to enhance the policy adjustment function of reserve requirement tools [2]

Core Points - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced the latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on August 20, 2025, with the 5-year LPR remaining at 3.5% and the 1-year LPR also unchanged at 3% [1][2] - In May 2025, the LPR was first lowered this year, with both the 1-year and 5-year LPRs decreasing by 10 basis points [5] - The PBOC has been actively conducting reverse repos to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with significant operations in August [6][8] Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC conducted a buyout reverse repo operation of 500 billion yuan with a 6-month term on August 15, marking the second such operation in the month [6][8] - The buyout reverse repo tool, introduced in October 2024, allows the PBOC to inject medium to long-term funds into the market, enhancing liquidity management [6][9] - The central bank's frequent large-scale reverse repo operations indicate a phase of tight liquidity, aimed at stabilizing market interest rates and providing a stable financing environment for the real economy [9] Future Expectations - Analysts expect the PBOC may implement further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions by the end of Q3 2025, with potential for a 10 basis point reduction in the 5-year LPR [11][13] - Since 2020, the PBOC has cumulatively lowered the RRR 12 times and policy rates 9 times, leading to significant declines in LPRs [12] - Future monetary policy is anticipated to focus on reducing financing costs for the real economy and encouraging financial institutions to increase credit supply [12][13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - After a period of oscillation, index futures still have support for a rebound [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data Tracking - **Price and Change**: On August 14, the closing prices of major indexes were as follows: CSI 300 at 4173.31 (down 0.08%), SSE 50 at 2829.47 (up 0.59%), CSI 500 at 6429.85 (down 1.20%), and CSI 1000 at 6976.49 (down 1.24%). The corresponding futures contracts showed mixed trends, with IF down 0.07%, IH up 0.46%, IC down 1.11%, and IM down 1.02% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: On the trading day, the total trading volume of index futures rebounded, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 26,975 lots, IH by 20,405 lots, IC by 5,277 lots, and IM by 36,064 lots. In terms of open interest, IF increased by 5,578 lots, IH by 3,248 lots, IC decreased by 9,652 lots, and IM decreased by 6,229 lots [2] 3.2 Index Futures Base Spread - The base spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed different trends over a certain period, as shown in the corresponding base spread charts [4] 3.3 Top 20 Member Positions in Index Futures - For different index futures contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM), the top 20 members' long and short positions had various changes, including increases and decreases in different contracts [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [6] - **Important Drivers**: The central bank plans to conduct a 500 - billion - yuan 6 - month (182 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation on August 15, and the total outright reverse repurchase in August has exceeded the roll - over amount by 30 billion yuan. The market expects the central bank to increase the roll - over amount after the 300 - billion - yuan MLF matures this month. The Fed's September rate - cut expectation was frustrated as the US July PPI soared year - on - year and环比, and some Fed officials opposed a large - scale rate cut [6] - **Stock Market Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.46% at 3666.44 after breaking through 3700 points. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.08%. A - share trading volume reached 2.31 trillion yuan, up from 2.18 trillion yuan the previous day. Most stocks fell, and certain sectors showed different performance trends [6]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced a 500 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, scheduled for August 15, 2025, with a term of 6 months (182 days) [1] - The operation will be conducted through a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price level bidding method [1] Group 2 - The announcement is part of broader monetary policy measures aimed at ensuring financial stability and liquidity in the market [1] - The operation reflects the central bank's proactive approach to manage liquidity and support economic growth [1]

Market Overview and Analysis - The primary market saw the issuance of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds amounting to 468.6 billion, 165.5 billion, and 174.5 billion respectively, with net financing of 338.6 billion, 82.8 billion, and 174.5 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) totaled an issuance of 132.0 billion with a net financing of 12.5 billion [1] - Non-financial credit bonds had an issuance of 357.9 billion and a net financing of 198.7 billion [1] - One new convertible bond was issued with an expected financing scale of 1.17 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - The bond market showed resilience amidst a strong stock market environment, influenced by factors such as the month-end liquidity, new VAT policies, and central bank's buyout operations [2] Liquidity Tracking - Post month-end, the liquidity naturally eased, and the central bank's announcement of buyout reverse repos further supported new bond issuance, leading to an overnight funding rate dropping below 1.3%, which pushed down funding prices [3] - The R001 and R007 rates decreased by 1.3 basis points and 3.3 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [3] Policy and Fundamentals - July economic data indicated resilient export growth, with core CPI rising for five consecutive months, although the anti-involution policy slightly hindered PPI transmission [4] - High-frequency data showed a slight decline in production and sustained low levels in consumption, with both food and commodity prices decreasing [4] Overseas Market - The easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict improved market risk sentiment, while deviations in U.S. Treasury auctions put pressure on U.S. bonds, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury closing at 4.27%, up 4 basis points from the previous week [5] Equity Market - The market returned to an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, while the overall A-share market rose by 1.94% with reduced trading volume, maintaining an average daily trading volume of 1.7 trillion [6] - As of August 7, 2025, the total financing balance for the entire A-share market was 1,998.9 billion, an increase of 27.9 billion from July 31 [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - In a low-interest-rate environment, traditional allocations of new funds by residents and institutions towards deposits and bonds are beginning to shift towards assets with rights, forming the basis for the stock market bull run this year [7] - This behavior will not change the downward trend of bond market interest rates but may delay the speed of decline and increase short-term volatility [7] - With the impact of the VAT recovery subsiding, the 10-year bond yield may return below 1.7%, potentially weakening market bullish sentiment [7] - The further downward space for interest rates depends on the central bank's continued support for new bond issuances affected by VAT and the pace of stock market increases [7] - For credit bonds, a relatively loose liquidity environment remains favorable, but attention should be paid to the issue of excessive narrowing of credit spreads [7] - In the convertible bond market, following the rollback of previous anti-involution expectations, there is renewed selection space for convertible bonds, with high-priced bonds not entering conversion periods and those not strongly redeemed gradually moving towards dual highs, maintaining a good overall profit effect [7] - It is important to note that the current risk-reward asymmetry has weakened, and some volatility is inevitable, making participation more challenging for low-volatility strategy investors [7]

央行将于8月15日开展5000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为6个月。 央行发布公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年8月15日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招 标、多重价位中标方式开展5000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为6个月（182天）。 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Long - term, the Politburo meeting in July maintained the stance of "moderate easing" for monetary policy, indicating that the easing orientation remains unchanged. With high tariff uncertainties and potential risks of post - export - rush decline, the bull - market foundation for bonds remains. However, in the short term, the joint statement on tariff exemption extension between China and the US reduces uncertainties, cools down risk - aversion sentiment, and the strength of commodities and the stock market put pressure on the bond market, especially long - term bonds. Considering the supportive factors for the capital market in August, short - term bonds (2 - year and 5 - year) may be more resilient, and a strategy of going long on short - term and short on long - term bonds is recommended [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: The stock market reached a new high, but treasury bond futures fluctuated and recovered, possibly boosted by rumors of a 6 - month buy - back repurchase and a potential reduction in the operating rate [8]. - **Cash Bond Yields**: Yields of major term interest rate cash bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board, with long - term yields dropping by about 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.72%, down 0.75bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank continued net withdrawals, but inter - bank funds remained loose. There were 138.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 118.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index loosened, short - term funding rates changed slightly, and medium - and long - term funds were stable [10]. - **Conclusion**: Long - term, the bull - market foundation for bonds remains, but short - term, long - term bonds are under pressure. Short - term bonds may be more resilient, and a "long short - term, short long - term" strategy is recommended [11][12]. 2. Industry News - **China - US Relations**: The US and China issued a joint statement. The US promised to continue adjusting tariffs on Chinese goods, and both sides suspended relevant tariff and non - tariff counter - measures for 90 days. China also continued to suspend relevant measures on the unreliable entity list [13]. - **Domestic Policies**: Three departments jointly issued a plan for fiscal subsidies on personal consumption loans, and nine departments issued a plan for fiscal subsidies on loans to service - industry business entities [13]. - **US News**: Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates, threatened to sue Fed Chairman Powell, and planned to nominate E.J. Anthony as the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. US Treasury Secretary suggested a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September. US July CPI and core CPI data were released, and the market expected a high probability of a rate cut in September. The US national debt exceeded $37 trillion [14]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Information on trading data of treasury bond futures contracts on August 13, including prices, trading volumes, and open interests, is provided. Also, there are data on cross - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and price trends of the main contracts [6]. - **Money Market**: Data on SHIBOR term structure changes, SHIBOR trends, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate changes, and silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repurchase rate changes are presented [29][33]. - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curves and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves is given [35].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current financial landscape, highlighting the negative growth in credit and its implications for the A-share market, drawing parallels to historical trends from 2005. Financial Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3674 points, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [5] - In July, new credit issuance was negative at -500 billion, marking a significant downturn [5] - The central bank conducted a 1185 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan, reflecting a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment [3][5] Interest Rates and Bond Market - The overnight repo rates are stable, with DR001 around 1.32% and DR007 at 1.45% [3] - The weighted average rates for repos are as follows: R001 at 1.35%, R007 at 1.47%, and R014 at 1.51%, indicating slight fluctuations in the short-term funding costs [4] - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.7200%, with a peak of 1.7350% during the trading session [6] Historical Context and Market Sentiment - The article references the last occurrence of negative credit growth in July 2005, which preceded a substantial increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, suggesting a potential for similar outcomes in the current context [5] - Analysts express a cautious yet optimistic sentiment regarding the stock market, with a humorous exchange indicating a preference for technology and growth sectors over bonds [6]