Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has shown resilience against the US dollar, with a stable exchange rate and a positive outlook for the second half of the year, supported by domestic economic recovery and effective macro policies [1][3]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Performance - As of July 4, the offshore yuan to US dollar exchange rate was 7.1643, up 58 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - In the first half of the year, the onshore yuan appreciated by 1.82% and the offshore yuan by 2.45% against the US dollar [1]. - The US dollar index fell by 10.79% during the same period, while the yuan's central parity rate increased by 298 basis points [1]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Yuan Strength - The weakening US dollar index is a significant external factor contributing to the yuan's strength, alongside domestic economic recovery and proactive macro policies [1]. - Analysts believe that the market's lack of confidence in the US dollar and enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments in China provide strong support for the yuan [3]. - The narrowing gap between onshore, offshore spot rates, and the central parity rate suggests a potential convergence of these rates [1][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Market expectations indicate that the yuan may continue to appreciate moderately against the US dollar in the second half of the year [3]. - Continuous implementation of growth-stabilizing policies is seen as a key factor in maintaining exchange rate stability [3]. - The maturity of the foreign exchange market in China, along with improved risk management services for enterprises, enhances the ability to cope with exchange rate fluctuations [3].

Group 1 - The report from the Bank of China Research Institute indicates that the pressure for RMB depreciation has significantly eased, and the exchange rate is expected to remain stable at a reasonable equilibrium level in the second half of 2025 [1] - In the first half of 2025, the RMB faced significant depreciation pressure due to factors such as the US "reciprocal tariff" policy, but after high-level economic talks between China and the US, the RMB appreciated against the USD [1] - As of June 25, the RMB's central parity, onshore spot, and offshore spot exchange rates have converged around 7.17, indicating a reduction in the divergence between onshore and offshore rates [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that the capital market recovery has accelerated the inflow of foreign capital, which positively contributes to the stability of the RMB exchange rate [2] - Since October of the previous year, the trading volume of the Stock Connect (where Hong Kong or foreign capital purchases A-shares) has significantly exceeded previous levels, and this trend is expected to continue [2] - The anticipated inflow of foreign capital is expected to support the balance of international payments and the stability of the exchange rate [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate shows resilience and low volatility, with both onshore and offshore rates demonstrating a consistent upward trend against the US dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Onshore and Offshore RMB Performance - On June 30, the onshore RMB closed at 7.1656 against the US dollar, marking a rise of 34 basis points from the previous trading day and reaching the highest level since November 8, 2024 [1]. - In June, the onshore RMB appreciated by 0.41%, while in the second quarter, it cumulatively appreciated by 1.2%, and for the first half of the year, the overall appreciation was 1.86% [1]. - The offshore RMB also showed positive trends, with the exchange rate surpassing 7.16 on June 26, peaking at 7.1524, the highest since mid-November of the previous year [1]. Group 2: External Factors Influencing RMB - The US dollar index experienced a pullback during this period, with a decline of nearly 0.7% on June 26, providing a favorable external environment for the RMB [1]. - Year-to-date, the RMB's midpoint against the US dollar has appreciated by 0.37%, while the onshore spot rate has appreciated by nearly 1.8% [1]. Group 3: Market Stability and Expectations - The RMB exchange rate has exhibited characteristics of "low volatility and resilience," with the onshore and offshore rate differentials narrowing, indicating a stable "three-price unity" [2]. - The stability of the RMB reflects a growing consensus among market participants regarding exchange rate expectations, supported by the stability of China's economic fundamentals [2]. - The recent changes in the exchange rate market occurred amidst increased volatility in global financial markets, influenced by shifts in US Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations [2].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilize market expectations to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate, aiming to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [1] Group 1 - The monetary policy committee of the People's Bank of China held its second quarter meeting for 2025 on June 23 [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of preventing risks associated with exchange rate overshooting [1] - The focus is on maintaining the RMB exchange rate stability within a reasonable and balanced range [1]

Core Viewpoint - The expected GDP growth rate for the second quarter is around 4.8%, influenced by factors such as export fluctuations, the diminishing impact of trade-in policies on consumption, and ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector [1][2]. Economic Analysis - The economic situation in China is projected to remain relatively stable in the short term, primarily due to a backlog of export orders and the positive effects of trade-in policies on retail [2]. - Export growth is expected to maintain a high level in May and June, potentially close to April's 8% growth rate, but challenges may arise in the second half of the year [2]. - The increase in tariffs on Chinese goods by the U.S. has significantly impacted exports, particularly with a 54% tariff on small packages, which may lead to a substantial decline in exports after the initial surge [3]. - The positive effects of trade-in policies for durable goods are expected to wane, with potential negative impacts on consumer demand in the latter half of the year [3][4]. - The real estate sector is experiencing a prolonged downturn, with a 10% annual decline and a 22% drop in new housing starts, complicating efforts to stabilize domestic demand [4]. Policy Recommendations - Maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate is crucial for economic stability, especially given the current challenges in the real estate market and capital outflow concerns [5][6]. - Accelerating fiscal spending and exploring additional stimulus measures are necessary to stabilize the economy in the second half of the year [6]. - The stability of the real estate market is critical, requiring measures such as interest rate cuts and debt resolution for developers to prevent further economic decline [7]. - Structural reforms in the social security system are needed to enhance consumer spending, particularly by increasing pension levels for rural elderly populations [8]. - Fiscal reform is essential to improve local government finances and create independent revenue sources beyond real estate, which is vital for enhancing the business environment [9].

Group 1 - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate surpassed the 7.20 mark, reaching a new high since December 2024, supported by stable macroeconomic conditions and policy measures to prevent excessive exchange rate fluctuations [1] - The onshore RMB is expected to experience a rebound following the recent trends in the offshore market, with predictions of a potential increase in the exchange rate [1] - The recent decline in the US dollar index, which fell below 100, indicates a weakening of the dollar, further supporting the RMB's strength [1] Group 2 - Experts believe that the foundation for maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate remains solid, driven by domestic economic recovery, increased confidence, and effective governance mechanisms [2] - The Chinese economy's large market size, complete industrial system, and rich human resources contribute positively to the stability of the RMB [2] - The pressure for RMB depreciation may have peaked, with expectations of a dual-directional fluctuation process in the exchange rate, albeit with smaller amplitude [3] Group 3 - The resilience of China's foreign exchange market has improved, enhancing its ability to withstand external shocks, with ongoing monitoring and management of foreign exchange conditions [3] - Authorities are expected to continue strengthening foreign exchange monitoring and maintain exchange rate flexibility while enriching macro-prudential management tools for cross-border capital flows [3]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has surpassed the 7.20 mark against the USD for the first time since November last year, indicating a significant appreciation in the currency's value [1]. Group 1: Currency Movements - The offshore RMB rose over 130 points, breaking the 7.20 threshold against the USD [1]. - The New Taiwan Dollar also experienced a significant increase, with the USD/TWD exchange rate dropping to 29.50, a 3.95% decline, marking the highest level since February 8, 2023 [1]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - According to Guo Tao, Chief Economist at Bank of China, the foundation for maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate remains solid, supported by domestic economic recovery and confidence [2]. - Positive factors such as policy shifts since late last year, risk mitigation, and technological empowerment are contributing to the stability of the RMB [2]. - China possesses significant institutional advantages, including a large market, complete industrial system, and effective governance mechanisms, which bolster its ability to withstand external shocks [2]. Group 3: Capital Market Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has emphasized its commitment to maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate, with a clear policy stance and the capability to manage market expectations [3]. - The PBOC has substantial foreign exchange reserves of $3 trillion, enhancing its ability to stabilize the RMB in offshore markets [2]. Group 4: Cross-Border RMB Usage - In Q1, cross-border RMB transactions with Malaysia reached 102 billion RMB, a 27% year-on-year increase, while transactions with Cambodia grew by 45% to 5 billion RMB [4]. - The surge in cross-border RMB usage reflects deepening monetary sovereignty and industrial trust between China and its trade partners [4]. - The RMB is forming a new model of trade dominance within the RCEP framework, linking projects and finance [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, highlighting the stability of the RMB and the positive outlook for cross-border RMB transactions due to ongoing economic cooperation initiatives. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations - As of May 5, the offshore RMB broke the 7.20 mark against the US dollar for the first time since November of the previous year, with an intraday increase of over 130 points [1] - The New Taiwan dollar also saw significant appreciation, with the USD/TWD exchange rate dropping below 30, marking a 3.95% decline, the highest since February 8, 2023 [3] - The FTSE China A50 index futures rose by 0.57%, while the US dollar index fell to 99.66 [5] Group 2: Stability of RMB Exchange Rate - According to Guo Tao, Chief Economist at Zhongyin Securities, the RMB exchange rate has a solid foundation for stability, supported by domestic economic recovery and various positive factors [8] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has emphasized its commitment to maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, with a robust foreign exchange reserve of $3 trillion enhancing its ability to stabilize the currency [8][9] - The PBOC has taken multiple measures to ensure exchange rate stability, including addressing market behaviors that disrupt order and preventing excessive fluctuations [13] Group 3: Cross-Border RMB Business Growth - The cross-border RMB business has seen significant growth, with transactions between China and Malaysia reaching 1,020 billion RMB in Q1, a 27% year-on-year increase, and transactions with Cambodia growing by 45% [15] - The increase in cross-border RMB usage reflects deeper monetary sovereignty and industrial trust between China and its trade partners [15][16] - The RMB is forming a new model of trade dominance within the RCEP framework, enhancing trade efficiency and local asset reserve attributes in the Asia-Pacific region [16]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the resilience of China's foreign exchange market and plans to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to support employment and growth amid recent fluctuations in the US Treasury market [1][2]. Foreign Exchange Market - The impact of fluctuations in a single market or asset on China's foreign exchange reserves is generally limited, as the reserves are diversified and managed with safety, liquidity, and value preservation in mind [1]. - China's foreign exchange reserves remain stable at over $3.2 trillion, supported by a balanced international payment situation and a resilient foreign exchange market [2]. Monetary Policy - The PBOC plans to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential adjustments to reserve requirement ratios and interest rates based on domestic and international economic conditions [3]. - The central bank aims to enhance financial support for key sectors such as technology innovation, green finance, and inclusive finance, while ensuring reasonable growth in money and credit [3]. Employment and Economic Growth - The PBOC will intensify support for employment through policies like entrepreneurship guarantee loans, particularly targeting groups such as returning migrant workers and recent graduates [4]. - Financial institutions will be guided to continue lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that are heavily reliant on foreign trade and facing temporary difficulties [4]. Support for Private Enterprises - The PBOC is committed to enhancing financial services for private enterprises, ensuring a favorable monetary environment through adequate liquidity and targeted financial support measures [5]. - The central bank will broaden financing channels for private enterprises, including expanding bond financing and improving access to foreign capital [6]. Data Insights - As of March 2025, the loan balance for privately held enterprises is approximately 45 trillion yuan, with an increase of 2.4 trillion yuan in the first three months of the year [6]. - The weighted average interest rate for new loans to privately held enterprises in March was about 3.41%, a decrease of 58 basis points compared to the same period last year [6].

邹澜表示，将根据国内外经济形势和金融市场运行情况，适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕，发挥好货币 政策工具总量和结构双重功能，创设新的结构性货币政策工具，围绕稳就业、稳增长的重点领域精准发 力，做好金融支持。还在研究丰富政策工具箱，将适时推出增量政策，助力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、 稳预期。 来源： 央视新闻客户端 关注" 新华网财经 "视频号 更多财经资讯等你来看 往期推荐 三只松鼠，赴港上市！ 重要数据发布！由降转增 中国人民银行副行长邹澜4月28日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，下一阶段， 中国人民银行将继续实施好 适度宽松的货币政策 ，加力支持实体经济，同时坚持以市场供求为基础，参考一揽子货币进行调节、 有管理的浮动汇率制度，坚持市场在汇率形成中的决定性作用，增强外汇市场韧性、稳定市场预期、加 强市场管理，坚决对市场顺周期行为进行纠偏，坚决对扰乱市场秩序行为进行处置，坚决防范汇率超调 风险， 保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定 。 央行：一季度个人住房贷款增约2200亿元 中国人民银行副行长邹澜表示，今年一季度末，个人住房贷款余额38万亿，增加约2200亿元，与去年一 季度相比同比多增超过2000亿元。 发挥 ...