证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 28 日 浙商早知道 2026 年 01 月 28 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 资金：1 月 27 日全 A 总成交额为 29215 亿元，南下资金净流出 6.35 亿港元。 重要推荐 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/姬新悦】咸亨国际（605056）公司深度：领先 MRO 集约化服务龙头，具身智能应用 打开成长空间——20260126 重要观点 【浙商宏观 李超/林成炜/费瑾】宏观深度报告：从"有钱"到"有闲"：中国假日经济变革影响几何？——20260126 重要点评 【浙商煤炭 樊金璐】煤炭 行业深度：黑金破晓，焦煤崛起——20260127 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：1 月 27 日上证指数上涨 0.18%，沪深 300 下跌 0.03%，科创 50 上涨 1.51%，中证 1000 上涨 0.2%，创业板 指上涨 0.71%，恒生指数上涨 1.35%。 行业：1 月 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 宏观深度报告 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 26 日 从"有钱"到"有闲"：中国假日经济变革影响几何？ 核心观点 在服务消费成为扩内需主线的背景下，假日经济正在从一个偏微观的出行热度概念， 升级为可被宏观政策配置与评估的时间要素工程。2024 年以来，假期制度的逻辑从做 大节日脉冲走向平滑释放服务消费，围绕扩内需与促进服务消费的政策框架，假日制 度的变化呈现出三条较为清晰的主线：其一，法定假日适度增加，并强调少调休、少 连班的约束；其二，假期结构从集中长假与调休拼接向更均衡、更可预期、错峰分散 优化，以降低拥堵、涨价与体验波动对消费的折损；其三，把带薪年休假从有制度进 一步推向可得、可用、可休，并与小长假连休、弹性错峰等组合，目标是把服务消费 从少数假期的脉冲，转成全年更稳定的释放；与此同时，春秋假从地方探索开始获得 更高层级政策支持，成为淡季填谷的重要抓手。 基于此，我们假设四种情形分别测算假期制度改革对 GDP 的拉动作用，结果显示政 策效果依次为带薪年假落实明显改善＞不加天数、假期结构更均衡＞春秋假由试点扩 散至全国＞法定假日净增 2 天。总体来看，相较 ...

Group 1 - The 2026 Shandong New Year Consumption Season has been launched with a focus on stimulating consumer spending and enhancing market confidence through various initiatives [2] - The Shandong provincial government will allocate over 27 billion yuan to key consumption areas, including subsidies for consumption upgrades and elderly services [2] - A total of 327 special promotional activities will be organized across the province, leveraging shopping districts, scenic spots, and other consumer venues [2] Group 2 - Four major themes for cultural and tourism consumption activities during the Spring Festival have been introduced, including 834 performances and 29,000 cultural events to boost consumer engagement [3] - The provincial sports bureau will host five major sports consumption promotion activities, including a winter sports season and various fitness events, with a budget of 10 million yuan for subsidies [3] - The event will feature five exhibition areas focusing on innovative consumer services, old-for-new programs, and showcasing local brands, attracting significant public interest [3]

Core Viewpoint - The province will host nearly 50 events themed "Intangible Cultural Heritage Celebrating the New Year and Tasting Chinese New Year" and "Intangible Cultural Heritage New Year Shopping Month" from late January to March, creating a unique "intangible cultural heritage version" of the Hainan New Year [1][2]. Group 1: Event Details - The Haikou venue will set up a special area for intangible cultural heritage creative products in February at the Friendship Sunshine City Commercial Plaza, showcasing various handmade and creative New Year goods from multiple intangible cultural heritage enterprises and representative inheritors [1]. - The year-end markets in Wuzhishan and Baisha will feature local intangible cultural heritage products such as Li brocade, pottery, bamboo weaving, and specialty foods, allowing citizens and tourists to experience the craftsmanship and warmth of Hainan's intangible cultural heritage while shopping for New Year goods [1]. - The Hainan Provincial Cultural Center will launch an intangible cultural heritage experience display event on March 3, while the Hainan Danjia Museum will host guided tours, themed exhibitions, and parent-child interactive activities from February 19 to March 3 [1]. Group 2: Cultural Integration and Community Engagement - The activities are designed to cater to different age groups, providing quality public cultural services that are "experiential, participatory, and purchasable," making "celebrating the New Year in the intangible cultural heritage museum" a new custom [1]. - Wanning will hold a "Celebrating the New Year with Intangible Cultural Heritage" event on January 31 at People's Park Square, featuring dragon and lion dances, Indonesian dance, and Qiong opera to create a festive atmosphere [1]. - Qionghai Cultural Center will launch a series of programs titled "The Taste of My Hometown" in February through multimedia platforms, guiding viewers to explore traditional foods from Qiong [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strategic initiatives taken by the Kunming Municipal Bureau of Commerce to boost consumer activity during the upcoming Spring Festival, emphasizing the integration of various sectors to enhance the shopping experience and ensure safety in commercial areas [1] Group 1: Consumer Market Initiatives - The Kunming Municipal Bureau of Commerce organized a planning meeting for the 2026 Spring Festival consumer season to innovate consumption scenarios and stimulate market vitality [1] - Various commercial complexes will deepen the integration of commerce, tourism, culture, and sports, planning activities such as the "Second Venue" for Yunnan Supermarket, New Year goods markets, and national trend performances to further unleash consumer potential [1] Group 2: Digital and Policy Support - An official WeChat account will be launched to provide a "Spring City Consumption Guide," integrating policy announcements, pilot applications, promotional activities, and safety tips, serving as a digital bridge between the government, businesses, and consumers [1] - The Kunming Municipal Bureau of Commerce aims to leverage the significant increase in international tourists and various flow advantages through measures like issuing special consumption vouchers and promoting "ticket root economy" to create an efficient platform for commercial resource circulation [1] Group 3: Strategic Goals - The bureau plans to establish a timely response mechanism for government-business communication, positioning "Come to Spring City, Celebrate the Spring Festival" as a prominent slogan for this year's festivities in Kunming [1]

以下文章来源于冰川思享号 ，作者青柳 冰川思享号 . 汇聚思想，分享锐见 本文来自微信公众号： 冰川思享号 ，作者：青柳 假期是结果，而不是原因。是因为人们有钱，所以才带动了假日经济，而不是因为有了假日，人们才 会想到花钱。 马上，就将迎来"史上最长春节假期"。 2026年春节假，将从腊月二十八（2月15日）开始，至正月初七（2月23日）结束，一共9天。 1月20日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍落实中央经济工作会议精神，在着力解决群众急 难愁盼方面，其中就特别提到"推动优化节假日安排，让千家万户有实打实的获得感……打开发展新 空间"。 哪怕有人不信，但从数字上来说这个结论也并不算夸张，可以就特定时间横向比较一下。 比如美国的圣诞假期，理论上只有12月25日一天。2025年特朗普还大手一挥，给联邦雇员多批了12 月24日和12月26日两天假期，就这样还有很多打工人抱怨自己享受不到。 这表明，即将到来的2026年这个"最长春节假期"很可能不是一次性的，未来延长假期可能会成为一 项制度安排。 这并不难理解。打工人耕耘大半年，承受着高强度的节奏与持续的消耗，自然会对"能不能多歇几 天"格外敏感。假期不只是日历 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the news is that the Jiupai Eye Leisure District in Jiujiang has successfully attracted hundreds of thousands of visitors since its opening, enhancing the holiday economy through immersive experiences and promotional activities [1][5] - The district features a variety of interactive scenes and offers consumption vouchers to engage visitors, making it a new leisure landmark for both citizens and tourists [1][5] - The integration of diverse business formats such as trendy family activities, themed dining, creative markets, and coffee book houses creates an immersive experience that combines natural scenery with cultural tourism [3][5] Group 2 - The chairman of Jiujiang Basai Cultural Tourism Industry Investment Group, Cai Baohan, stated that the Jiupai Eye was previously a camping base with a relatively single business model, but has now transformed into an interactive leisure district to retain visitors and boost consumption [5] - The district is leveraging its unique water resources to shift from traditional sightseeing to in-depth experiences, continuously introducing new cultural tourism and consumption models to meet the diverse leisure needs of visitors [5] - Future plans for the district include organizing various themed activities at different times, especially during the Spring Festival, and implementing promotional policies to further attract visitors and stimulate consumption [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the introduction of 28 policy measures by the Shanghai Municipal Government to enhance service quality and boost consumption across six key sectors: finance, information services, transportation, cultural and entertainment services, life services, and inspection and certification [1][3] Group 2 - In the financial sector, the measures encourage innovation in financial products tailored to new consumption trends, such as holiday, night, nostalgic, and anime economies, and include personal consumption loan interest subsidies and optimized auto loan processes [1][2] - In transportation services, the government supports airlines in launching new international routes and developing luxury tourism trains, as well as enhancing airport commercial layouts to create composite consumption scenarios [2] - In the cultural and entertainment sector, there is a focus on promoting the gaming and esports industry, supporting the development of original IP games, and incentivizing quality micro-short film content creation [2] Group 3 - The next steps involve ensuring the effective implementation of the measures by coordinating service supply with consumer demand, promoting digital, green, and intelligent consumption, and enhancing service quality [3] - The government aims to create a favorable environment for sustained consumption growth by implementing fiscal and financial support policies and improving service quality management and brand building [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Municipal Government has issued a set of measures aimed at enhancing service quality and boosting consumption, focusing on the interconnection between service industries and consumer demand through 28 specific initiatives [1][8]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The measures support the innovation and development of comprehensive platform enterprises, including e-commerce and life service platforms, while promoting specialized consumption platforms in areas such as maternal and child care, housekeeping, and elderly care [1][8]. - The government aims to optimize the automotive loan process by relaxing application conditions and determining reasonable loan issuance ratios, terms, and interest rates [2][9]. - The measures encourage financial institutions to innovate consumer financial services tailored to new consumption characteristics, including holiday, night, nostalgic, and subculture economies [4][10]. Group 2: Financial Support and Infrastructure - There is a focus on enhancing financial support for consumer infrastructure, encouraging financial institutions to back key projects in commercial facilities and community service upgrades [4][10]. - The measures promote the issuance of real estate investment trusts (REITs) for consumer infrastructure and support eligible projects in applying for local government special bonds [4][10]. Group 3: Cultural and Entertainment Sector - The measures aim to invigorate the cultural and entertainment sectors by enhancing the supply of cultural performances and exhibitions, supporting high-level paid exhibitions, and developing cultural products [6][12]. - There is an emphasis on leveraging the spillover effects of sports events by attracting well-known brand events and creating proprietary sports event IPs, with incentives based on the economic impact of these events [6][12]. Group 4: Gaming and Short Video Content - The government plans to promote the development of the gaming and esports industry by establishing a globally influential proprietary event system and supporting high-quality original games and esports projects [7][13]. - Support for the creation of quality micro-short films is included, with initiatives to attract creators and provide rewards for outstanding projects [7][13]. Group 5: Health Services - The measures encourage the development of high-end medical services and diversified health industries, including medical tourism and various health insurance products [7][13].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Municipal Government has issued measures to enhance service quality and stimulate consumer spending, focusing on innovative financial products tailored to new consumption trends [1] Group 1: Consumer Financial Services - The measures aim to enrich personal consumer financial services, particularly in areas such as holiday economy, night economy, nostalgic economy, and ACG (Anime, Comic, and Games) economy [1] - Financial institutions are encouraged to innovate and develop financial products and services that align with the characteristics of new consumption [1] - Various card discount activities will be organized in conjunction with consumer festivals to promote spending [1] Group 2: Personal Consumption Loans - The implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies is highlighted to support consumer spending [1] - The process for auto loans will be optimized, with relaxed application conditions and reasonable determination of loan issuance ratios, terms, and interest rates [1] Group 3: Credit Products and Payment Services - There will be an expansion of credit products in large consumer areas such as green smart home and home decoration [1] - The measures include enhancing mobile payment services, particularly focusing on "external card internal binding" and "external package internal use" [1] - The promotion of asset securitization for retail loans, including personal consumption and credit cards, is aimed at revitalizing existing credit stock [1]