Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Tariff threats persist, causing oil prices to decline again. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff policies impacts the global economy, trade, and investment prospects, further suppressing already low oil consumption this year, especially in emerging economies. Supply growth is expected to significantly exceed demand, with oil consumption growth not exceeding 500,000 barrels per day year - on - year [1][2]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has lowered global crude oil demand and price expectations for WTI and Brent crude for this year and next [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market News and Important Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's May - delivery light crude oil futures dropped $2.28 to $60.07 per barrel, a 3.66% decline; June - delivery London Brent crude futures fell $2.15 to $63.33 per barrel, a 3.28% decline. SC crude's main contract rose 0.41% to 464 yuan per barrel [1]. - U.S. shale oil producers face the most severe threat in years. Since Trump announced "Liberation Day" tariffs last week, U.S. oil prices have fallen 12%, below the break - even level for many Texas producers, and OPEC's recent decision to increase production has also raised concerns [1]. - EU Commission President von der Leyen welcomed Trump's decision to suspend tariffs on other countries' goods for 90 days. She reiterated the EU's "zero - for - zero" tariff proposal to the U.S. government [1]. - An Iranian official said that if foreign military threats continue, Iran may expel international nuclear inspectors and move enriched uranium to secret locations. Trump said he would consider military action against Iran if it weaponizes its nuclear program [1]. - The EIA's short - term energy outlook report lowered global crude oil demand and price expectations for WTI and Brent crude for this year and next, and predicted that OPEC + oil production will remain basically unchanged this year while global oil inventories will rise [1]. - The EU and the UAE reached an agreement to start free - trade negotiations [1]. - Iran is considering proposing a temporary nuclear agreement with the U.S. before negotiating a comprehensive one, as Trump set a two - month deadline for a new nuclear agreement and threatened military action if no agreement is reached [1]. Investment Logic - After a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs, Trump's threat to resume high tariffs if no agreement is reached impacts the global economy, trade, and investment. The uncertainty of tariff policies further suppresses oil consumption, especially in emerging economies. Supply growth is expected to far exceed demand [2]. Strategy - Affected by macro events, oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and a short - position allocation is recommended for the medium term [3]. Risks - Downside risks include significant OPEC production increases and macro black - swan events. - Upside risks include supply tightening of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle - East conflicts [3].

Group 1 - The report highlights the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, particularly the recent announcements from the US that exceeded market expectations, which may lead to increased market risk aversion [5][20][23] - The economic performance in Q1 was strong, but there are concerns about a potential slowdown in Q2 due to external tariff disturbances and weak domestic demand [6][7][33] - The report emphasizes the need for policy measures to support domestic consumption and counteract external pressures, suggesting that the government may implement strategies to boost consumer demand [7][8][41] Group 2 - The A-share market is currently in a phase of adjustment following a revaluation, with external tariff pressures impacting global risk appetite and leading to a cautious outlook [8][10] - The report indicates that the market is transitioning from a focus on valuation to an emphasis on earnings performance as the earnings season approaches [8][10] - Defensive strategies are recommended, with a focus on large-cap value and dividend stocks, as market volatility increases due to external uncertainties [8][10] Group 3 - The report notes a mixed performance in major asset classes, with A-shares experiencing slight declines while gold prices surged significantly due to heightened uncertainty in international trade [13][14] - The performance of various sectors in March showed a divergence, with defensive sectors like coal, non-ferrous metals, and banking performing well, while growth sectors faced declines [15][16] - The report suggests that the technology sector remains a key focus for the year, despite facing short-term adjustments due to reduced market sentiment [8][10][16]

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