罗素投资：预计非农新增10万个岗位 就业疲软但仍支持软着陆 金十数据8月1日讯，美国长债收益率在亚盘交易时段微升。接受《华尔街日报》调查的分析师预计美国 7月非农将新增10万个就业岗位，6月份为14.7万个。罗素投资公司投资策略师BeiChen Lin在一份报告中 表示："正如普遍预期的那样，劳动力市场略有疲软，仍符合我们的软着陆前景。"就业创造的广度将是 一个关键的观察点。近几个月来，新增就业岗位已开始更多地集中在医疗保健等人手不足的行业，就业 范围的扩大可能会在一定程度上为经济的弹性提供保证。 ...

分析师：美联储后续降息在沟通层面极具挑战 金十数据7月31日讯，Facet公司首席投资官Tom Graff表示，美联储显然处于一个棘手的位置。逻辑上， 他们预期新关税将带来一定程度的通胀，理想情况下美联储希望等到通胀见顶后再考虑降息。但压力正 在加大，即使白宫没有施加外部压力，近期劳动力市场的疲软也足以让美联储感到担忧。实际上这很可 能正是沃勒和鲍曼在此次会议中投票反对维持利率不变、主张降息的原因。我认为，此次决议为美联储 在9月会议上启动降息奠定了基础，并可能在年内再降息1到2次。问题在于，尽管物价可能会上升，美 联储却仍需启动降息，这在沟通层面将极具挑战性。而特朗普对利率的持续施压进一步加剧了这一沟通 难度。届时，鲍威尔可能会被外界视为在屈从于特朗普的要求。但如果就业增长继续走弱，经济陷入衰 退的可能性将不断上升，而鲍威尔届时也将无法再对此视而不见。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that UK government bond yields are rising faster than those of other European countries, indicating investor avoidance of UK bonds due to the challenging economic conditions of high inflation and a weak labor market [1] Economic Conditions - Recent data shows an increase in UK inflation alongside a weak labor market, leading to a sell-off of UK government bonds [1] - The combination of declining GDP, rising inflation, and a weak labor market is expected to further hinder the performance of the UK bond market compared to other European nations in the remaining summer months [1] Investor Behavior - XTB analysts suggest that the rapid increase in UK bond yields compared to European counterparts reflects a potential shift in investor sentiment, with a preference to avoid UK government bonds [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly suggests that a weak labor market may lead to interest rate cuts, but inflation concerns could steer policy in a different direction [1] Group 1 - The actual labor market is showing signs of weakness, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates [1] - Inflation remains a significant issue that could counterbalance the potential for rate cuts, indicating a complex policy environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Musalem stated that as long as expectations remain stable, monetary policy can effectively address the weakness in the labor market [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is focused on maintaining stable expectations to navigate labor market challenges [1] - Musalem emphasizes the adaptability of monetary policy in response to labor market conditions [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant rise in technology stocks, which has positively influenced major U.S. stock indices, particularly the Nasdaq, which rose approximately 0.8% [1][3] - Major technology companies such as Tesla, Apple, TSMC, and Nvidia saw substantial stock price increases, with Tesla rising over 4% and TSMC increasing by over 3% [3] - The market reacted positively to a new trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam, which is expected to alleviate potential supply chain crises for apparel and footwear companies [3] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market faced initial pressure due to a report from ADP indicating a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the private sector, marking the first monthly decline since March 2023 [5] - Analysts suggest that if upcoming official employment data also falls short of expectations, the Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts in their upcoming policy meeting [5][6] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet indicated that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates as early as September, citing that tariffs have not significantly contributed to inflation [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is experiencing a significant slowdown, with UBS and Citigroup predicting that the June non-farm payroll data will fall well below expectations, potentially leading to the highest unemployment rate since 2021 [1][2] - UBS forecasts an increase of only 100,000 non-farm jobs in June, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, while Citigroup's prediction is even lower at 85,000 new jobs and a 4.4% unemployment rate [2][5] - Both institutions highlight a trend of declining non-farm employment growth over several months, indicating a potential worsening economic situation [1][2] Group 2 - UBS expects the unemployment rate to rise from 4.24% in May to 4.28% in June, marking the highest level since 2021, while Citigroup anticipates a rise to 4.4% [5][12] - High-frequency indicators show signs of labor market weakness, with a notable increase in ongoing unemployment claims, which typically correlates with a slowdown in private employment growth [5][8] - Citigroup emphasizes a significant slowdown in hiring activity, which could pose substantial seasonal adjustment challenges, as private sector employment typically sees an increase of about 800,000 jobs in June [8][10] Group 3 - In terms of wage growth, Citigroup predicts a further slowdown in average hourly earnings growth to 0.2% month-over-month in June, down from 0.4% in May, reflecting weak labor demand [10][12] - Changes in immigration policy may begin to have a more pronounced impact on employment data starting in June, with recent court rulings affecting temporary work permits for immigrants [12][14] - UBS maintains its forecast for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates in September, with a cumulative reduction of 100 basis points expected throughout the year, while Citigroup aligns with this view, predicting a 125 basis point cut by March of the following year [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, indicates that the direction of interest rates is downward [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Current inflation is entirely driven by administrative pricing factors [1] - Signs of weakness are emerging in the economy and labor market [1] Group 2: Trade Policy Impact - It is too early to assess the impact of tariffs and trade policies on prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey indicates that the UK labor market is showing signs of weakness, suggesting a potential shift in economic conditions [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The labor market in the UK is currently experiencing fatigue, which may impact overall economic performance [1] - There is a gradual downward trend in the interest rate path, reflecting a response to changing economic conditions [1] - Continuous observation of inflation's persistence is deemed necessary to assess future economic strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Powell, indicates that interest rate cuts would have continued if not for inflation expectations, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy based on economic indicators [1] Group 1 - Powell emphasizes that the decision to adjust interest rates is heavily influenced by inflation expectations [1] - The labor market's performance is a critical factor that could prompt changes in the current monetary policy stance [1]