中美谈判超预期 市场重回活跃 2025 年 5 月 13 日 A 股策略 点评报告 | | | 观点： 中美谈判超预期。从上轮中美关税战谈判的进程来看，经历了多轮谈判，且两国元首两次会晤之后才达成一定程度的关 税减让，市场普遍对本轮谈判的预期偏谨慎，因此，本次谈判一次性达成大幅降低双边关税的结果，超出市场普遍预期。 美对华加征关税由 4 月 2 日之后的 125%降至 10%，目前综合关税税率为 50%左右，其中前期关税税率约为 20%左右， 芬太尼关税为 20%，对等关税 10%，另外有 24%的关税有 90 天豁免期。中国对美关税税率为 10%，另外 24%的关税 有 90 天豁免期。中美关税博弈短期进入休战期，短期有利于市场预期稳定，中期来看还存在不确定性，但从两国经济发 展的角度出发，合作共赢仍是主旋律。 市场有望重回活跃。在中美谈判超预期的情况下，压制市场的重要因素短期缓解，市场将会重回活跃状态。首先，市场 担忧的出口问题得到缓解，2 季度出口形势得到改善，对基本面的影响偏积极；其次，政策层面出台政策持续发力，政 策效果持续显现，宏观指标持续改善的势头可能会逐步显现，企业经营压力持续缓解；再次，市场 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Financial Technology Theme Index (930986) decreased by 1.22% as of May 13, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [3] - Lakala (300773) led the gains with an increase of 4.01%, while Feitian Chengxin (300386) experienced the largest decline at 3.90% [3] - The Financial Technology ETF (516860) also fell by 1.29%, with the latest price at 1.22 yuan and a turnover rate of 5.18% during the trading session [3] Group 2 - The recent joint statement from a press conference on May 12 announced a suspension of 24% tariffs on Chinese goods for an initial 90 days, while retaining the option to impose an additional 10% tariff [3] - Shenwan Hongyuan noted that the reduction of tariffs by the U.S. directly benefits export chain enterprises, potentially leading to a short-term recovery in exports [4] - The Financial Technology ETF closely tracks the China Securities Financial Technology Theme Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the financial technology sector [4] Group 3 - The Financial Technology ETF reached a new high in scale at 914 million yuan, with a significant increase of 42 million shares over the past week [4] - The ETF recorded a net inflow of 12.23 million yuan recently, with a total of 13.04 million yuan net inflow over the last five trading days [4] - Leveraged funds continue to invest in the Financial Technology ETF, with the latest margin buying amounting to 6.43 million yuan and a margin balance of 41.69 million yuan [5] Group 4 - As of May 12, 2025, the Financial Technology ETF has achieved a net value increase of 62.91% over the past year, ranking first among comparable funds [5] - The ETF's highest single-month return since inception was 55.92%, with an average monthly return of 10.57% [5] - The ETF's management fee is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [5] Group 5 - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Financial Technology Theme Index accounted for 53.28% of the index [6] - The top stocks include Tonghuashun (300033), Dongfang Caifu (300059), and Runhe Software (300339), with respective weights of 9.50%, 9.01%, and 7.29% [6][8]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08% while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.24% and 0.23% respectively [1] - The photovoltaic and HJT battery concepts showed strong performance, with stocks like Oujing Technology, GCL-Poly Energy, and Baoxin Technology hitting the daily limit [1] - The banking sector experienced fluctuations, with stocks such as Pudong Development Bank and Shanghai Bank reaching historical highs [1] Group 2 - The cross-border e-commerce concept was active, with companies like Huafang Co., Zhejiang Zhengte, and Qingdao Jinwang also hitting the daily limit [1] - Sectors such as military trade, national defense, aerospace, and commercial space saw declines [1] - Daily chemical, hotel and catering, banking, and coal sectors had the highest gains, while shipbuilding, aviation, electrical instruments, and mineral products faced the largest declines [1]

长期而言，申万宏源认为，出口链是结果，而处于长期景气趋势的国产AI、国防军工、机器人是原 因。因此，维持对科技景气方向的战略看好。预计短期A股震荡且中枢抬升，长期重启A股结构牛，看 好科技板块。 （文章来源：广州日报） 当地时间5月12日，美股三大指数均大幅收涨，纳指涨4.35%，标普500指数涨3.26%，道指涨2.81%。其 中，中国资产爆发引发关注，热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数大幅收涨5.40%，创4月4日 以来新高。其中，佳裕达涨67.71%、世纪互联涨21.31%、盛大科技涨18.92%，万国数据、亿咖通科 技、BOSS直聘、乐信、涂鸦智能涨超10%。 消息面上，北京时间5月12日下午，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》（以下简称"联合声明"）发布， 大幅降低双边关税水平，引发全球市场关注，各国股市普涨。 其中，A股5月12日高开高走，上证指数收涨0.82%报3369.24点，深证成指涨1.72%，创业板指涨 2.63%。个股涨多跌少，4112只个股收涨。 那么，接下来A股将怎么走？市场分析人士普遍认为，联合声明向市场释放积极信号，短期内有望提振 投资者风险偏好，利好中国权益资产。 "中美贸 ...

2025 年 05 月 12 日 A 股供需格局展望重回临界值 ——申万宏源策略中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明点评 20250512 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 一、原有的市场预期：特朗普政策执行效果已明显偏离了米兰报告的设想。所以特朗普政 策应该调整，中美开启谈判进程在情理之中。特朗普政策调整速度偏慢、力度偏弱是基准 假设。这种情况下的基本面预期是二季度外需回落压力初步显现，三季度压力可能再加大。 A 股盈利能力会有额外下行压力，2025 年内盈利能力难有向上拐点，2026 年供给全面 出清后，才有供需格局改善的可能性。 ⚫ 二、中美日内瓦经贸会谈后的预期：4 月 2 日后额外加征的关税下修至 10%，90 天缓和 期与其他国家看齐，美国关税政策幅度超预期。二季度抢出口 + 美国批发零售企业对中 国商品超额回补，二季度中国经济验证可能维持强韧性。如果把美国调整后的关税水平线 性外推，2025H2 A 股供需格局可能重新回到"临界水平"，若国内刺激政策维持强势， 则 2025H2 有可能实现盈利能力改善，2026 年改善确定性再次提高。 ⚫ 后续依然值得关注的变化：特朗普对米兰报告可能只是回归了原 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed positive momentum with the ChiNext index rising by 1.74%, driven by strong performances in sectors such as brain engineering and defense industry [1] Market Performance - The three major indices opened lower but experienced upward movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.38%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.03%, and the ChiNext Index gaining 1.74% [1] - The total trading volume in the market exceeded 800 billion yuan, with approximately 3,800 stocks advancing [1] Sector Highlights - The brain engineering concept saw significant gains, with Aipeng Medical hitting a 20% limit up [1] - The copper cable high-speed connection concept also surged, with Woer Nuclear Materials reaching the limit up [1] - The defense and military industry continued to strengthen, with AVIC Chengfei rising nearly 12% [1] - Other sectors that performed well included insurance, AI applications, heat pump concepts, photovoltaic concepts, and ST stocks [1] Declining Sectors - The PEEK materials concept experienced a sharp decline, with Zhongxin Fluorine Materials hitting the limit down [1] - Other sectors that faced declines included seed industry and fertilizer concepts [1]

A股午评：沪指涨0.64% 国防军工概念大涨 金十数据5月7日讯，今日早盘，三大指数高开后震荡回落，截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.64%，深证成指涨 0.19%，创业板指涨0.40%。盘面上看，国防军工概念大涨，航天长峰、电光科技、润贝航科等约20只 个股涨停；房地产走强，天保基建等涨停；大飞机、商业航天、人脑工程、航空、船舶、食品饮料等板 块涨幅居前；互联网、传媒、半导体等少数板块下跌；全市场半日成交额近1万亿元，约3500只个股上 涨。 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong opening on May 6, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.94%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.66%, and the ChiNext Index by 2% [1][5] - The total market turnover reached 866.5 billion yuan, an increase of 138.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 4,800 stocks rising [1][5] Sector Performance - The controllable nuclear fusion sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Zhongzhou Special Materials and Jiusheng Electric hitting the daily limit [3] - Rare earth permanent magnet stocks also performed well, with companies such as Shenghe Resources and Tianhe Magnetic Materials reaching the daily limit [3] - The banking sector lagged behind, with stocks like Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank dropping over 3% [3] Key Concepts and Trends - The market is showing strong momentum, with a healthy price-volume relationship, indicating potential bullish trends [5] - The expectation of monetary easing measures, such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, is contributing to market optimism [7][8] - The end of the annual report season has led to a cleansing of underperforming stocks, reducing the risk of unexpected losses for investors [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Youloka, reported a steady growth in revenue and profit for Q1 2025, indicating resilience and potential in the smart mining sector, while also expanding into the defense industry through strategic acquisitions [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 88.624 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.89% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 13.2584 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.21% [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 79.9016 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 100.77% [1] - For the full year 2024, the company reported total operating revenue of 599 million yuan and a net profit of 95.0781 million yuan [1] Business Focus and Strategy - The company has been dedicated to research in mining safety and intelligence for nearly 30 years, establishing a strong brand presence in the smart mining industry [1] - Youloka has developed a range of specialized robots for various applications in complex geological conditions, enhancing safety and efficiency in mining operations [1][2] - The company is a leading player in the domestic market for safety monitoring and control systems in coal mines, holding the largest market share in roof safety monitoring systems [2] - In 2016, the company diversified into the defense industry through the acquisition of Shikai Technology, focusing on armored vehicles and missile guidance systems [2] Future Outlook - For 2025, the company plans to deepen its focus on its core business while gradually expanding into non-coal mining sectors, leveraging its expertise in smart mining applications [3] - The company aims to provide intelligent products and specialized services, positioning itself as a comprehensive supplier in the smart mining sector [3] - Despite external challenges, the company remains optimistic about economic growth and industry potential, emphasizing a steady and progressive operational approach [3]

4月28日，尤洛卡今日收盘5.97元，下跌1.32%，滚动市盈率PE（当前股价与前四季度每股收益总和的比 值）达到38.24倍，总市值44.01亿元。 从行业市盈率排名来看，公司所处的专用设备行业市盈率平均60.85倍，行业中值45.87倍，尤洛卡排名 第143位。 来源：金融界 尤洛卡精准信息工程股份有限公司的主营业务包括智慧矿山、国防军工业务。公司主要产品包括煤矿顶 板安全监测系统、煤矿冲击地压安全监测系统、煤与瓦斯突出监测系统、矿山有害气体监测系统、智能 柴油单轨运输系统(柴油单轨吊)、智能锂电单轨运输系统(锂电单轨吊)、轨道自动安装车、无人驾驶起 重车、矿用5G通讯系统、矿用万兆环网系统、UWB人员精准定位系统。公司业务主要承担者矿业科 技、师凯科技分别被评为国家级专精特新"小巨人"企业、吉林省省级"专精特新"中小企业，在智慧矿山 和国防军工业务领域具有持续不断地研发创新能力，有效地保障了公司产品的技术优势。 最新一期业绩显示，2024年三季报，公司实现营业收入4.02亿元，同比2.47%；净利润5695.80万元，同 比-23.14%，销售毛利率48.29%。 序号股票简称PE(TTM)PE(静)市 ...