通胀叙事可能持续强化 ——策略周观点 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略周报 Table_ReportType] [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 李畅 策略分析师 执业编号：S1500523070001 邮 箱： lichang@cindasc.com 徐国铨 策略研究助理 邮 箱：xuguoquan@cindasc.com [通胀Table_Title] 叙事可能持续强化 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 3 核心结论：春节后上证指数震荡上行，但风格上明显呈现出"科技叙事 弱，通胀叙事强"的特征，交易逻辑类似海外讨论较多的"HALO 交易"。 我们认为市场大方向仍然偏乐观，但短期可能进入考验期。3 月两会积极 政策预期提升，但从季节性规律来看，两会前两周左右市场大概率会有一 些波动。美国关税政策仍有不确定性，但人民币持续升值背景下可能不构 成短期核心矛盾。下一阶段可能有经济和盈利预 ...

Core Insights - Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, disclosed his investment portfolio via Twitter, which includes a diverse range of assets such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, and physical gold [1] Group 1: Investment Portfolio - The portfolio consists of stocks in sectors like gold, silver, copper, uranium mining, oil giants, military stocks, and Latin American energy stocks [1] - In the cryptocurrency segment, the portfolio includes Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Zcash (ZEC), and HYPE [1] - Additionally, the portfolio features physical gold as a tangible asset [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the company, Quanxin Co., Ltd. (stock code: 300447), is leveraging its technological and brand advantages in military products to accelerate the application of military technology in the civilian sector [1] Group 2 - The company responded to investor inquiries on an interactive platform, indicating its strategic focus on the aerospace field [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited a structural differentiation pattern last week, with cyclical and financial sectors leading gains while military and power equipment sectors declined [1][7] - Industries such as petroleum, coal, and non-ferrous metals continued to rise on a month-on-month basis, while military, power equipment, automotive, and computer sectors experienced significant declines [1][7] Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis - In January, the manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a seasonal decline and below the average level for recent years [2][8] - The price index showed a notable rebound due to rising commodity prices, while the service sector remained stable and the construction industry required policy support [2][8] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent decision to pause interest rate cuts aligns with market expectations, but the appointment of Kevin Walsh as the new Fed Chair may introduce uncertainties into monetary policy [3][9] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The current phase of A-share earnings disclosures is expected to reveal a shift towards new economic growth, with a notable rise in the new economy's growth center, particularly in AI and overseas expansion [4][10] - The market is anticipated to stabilize, with a focus on leading companies in specific sectors and the A500 index, as regulatory measures have suppressed short-term speculative trading [4][10] - External disturbances may lead to corrections in previously popular sectors, creating potential opportunities for policy support in heavily pressured indices like the CSI 300 [4][10] Group 4: Investment Directions - Emerging technology remains a primary focus, with value stocks also showing potential; attention should be given to leading companies and the A500 index [5][11] - In the technology growth sector, global demand for AI computing power is driving rapid growth in semiconductor equipment demand, leading to price increases across the entire supply chain [5][11] - In the cyclical sector, low valuations and improving economic conditions suggest opportunities in food, retail, tourism services, and commodities like oil and non-ferrous metals [5][11]

Core Viewpoint - Xuguang Electronics (600353) expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a growth of 51.25% to 65.89% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders estimated between 155 million to 170 million yuan [4] Financial Performance - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is between 155 million to 170 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 51.25% to 65.89% [4] - The projected non-recurring net profit is estimated to be between 112 million to 127 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.12% to 47.55% [4] - As of January 27, the company's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is approximately 86.46 to 94.83 times, with a price-to-book ratio (LF) of about 7.86 times and a price-to-sales ratio (TTM) of around 8.92 times [4] Business Operations - The company has optimized its product structure, increasing the proportion of high value-added and high-margin products, which has enhanced its profitability [11] - The company reported a non-operating income of 38.49 million yuan from the transfer of a 32.55% stake in Chengdu Chuhan Technology Co., Ltd., contributing an additional 28.08 million yuan to the net profit attributable to shareholders after tax deductions [11] Historical Performance - Historical data indicates a steady increase in net profit and non-recurring net profit over the years, with projections for 2025 showing continued growth [12][13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite Russia's rich natural resources, it has struggled to develop a strong economy due to high extraction costs, technological limitations, and the impact of oligarchic exploitation [3][5] - Post-Soviet Russia has maintained its status as a world power but faces significant challenges due to political instability, social conflicts, and economic sanctions from Western countries [5][7] - Russia's reliance on energy exports has not translated into economic strength comparable to other resource-rich nations like Saudi Arabia, primarily due to the high costs associated with resource extraction and transportation [3][5] Group 2 - The need for Russia to develop its industrial strength and open international markets is crucial for economic revitalization, leveraging its military-industrial complex and market systems [7] - Recent economic cooperation with Europe, driven by a desire to reduce dependence on the U.S., has led to some recovery in the Russian economy, although long-term growth requires broader industrial development [5][7] - Historical military trade experience from the Soviet era provides Russia with a potential revenue stream, which could support its ambitions to become a powerful empire again if it seizes global economic opportunities [7]

格隆汇12月18日丨盛路通信(002446.SZ)在互动平台表示，公司拥有完备的军工资质认证，涵盖科研生 产、保密管理及质量保障等关键环节。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that if the "anti-involution" policy in 2026 successfully promotes re-inflation, corporate profits are expected to recover rapidly, providing strong momentum for the market, similar to the successful logic of supply-side structural reforms in 2016-2017 [1] - The economic outlook for 2026 is analyzed through three dimensions: stable GDP growth, increasing share of the "three new" economy (including automotive and AI industries), and marginal improvement in consumption and investment, with domestic demand becoming the core driving force [1] Group 2 - In the A-share market, there is a strong correlation between A-share profits and PPI, with over 70% of the 5,400 A-share listed companies being manufacturing enterprises, indicating significant price elasticity [2] - As of October 2025, PPI is still at -2.1% year-on-year, and corporate profits are in a bottoming phase. If the "anti-involution" policy leads to a rebound in commodity prices, corporate profits could improve significantly, providing strong support for the market [2] - Concerns regarding the AI bubble in the US stock market are raised, with the S&P 500 index showing significant valuation risks, but the adjustment is expected to be relatively mild compared to the 2000 internet bubble [2] Group 3 - A risk warning is issued regarding the "policy expectation reversal risk," highlighting the potential conflict if both PPI and CPI rise unexpectedly, which could challenge the assumption of continued US interest rate cuts [3] - The year 2026 is seen as crucial for the success of the "anti-involution" policy in promoting re-inflation. If PPI turns positive year-on-year, A-shares could experience a rapid recovery in profits similar to the supply-side structural reform period, making this a key market driver [3]

Core Insights - South Korea's export is expected to exceed $700 billion for the first time, with a cumulative export amount of $640.2 billion from January to November, marking the highest level since 2022 [1] - Exports have shown positive growth for six consecutive months, indicating a recovery trend after a period of decline [1] - Key sectors driving this growth include semiconductors, automobiles, ships, and biotechnology, supported by the global spread of K-culture products such as K-food and K-beauty [1] Export Performance - The export market structure is diversifying, contributing to the overall growth [1] - In the third quarter, the number of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) involved in exports reached a record high of 89,000, with export value from SMEs hitting $87.1 billion, also a historical peak [1] Recognition and Awards - During the 62nd Trade Day ceremony, 598 individuals and 1,689 companies were recognized for their contributions to South Korea's export achievements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes that its accounts receivable of 717 million yuan primarily stems from its computing power business rather than the military sector, which is expected to see a steady annual increase in receivables [1] Group 1: Business Focus - The company's strategic focus is on two core sectors: military and computing power [1] - The parent company will not significantly expand into the civilian product market due to the uncertain payment cycles and higher risk of receivables from smaller civilian clients [1] Group 2: Civilian Client Relationships - Although the company has not expanded significantly into civilian products, it maintains stable partnerships with reputable civilian clients, including well-known companies like Siemens and those in the semiconductor industry [1] - These civilian clients possess good credit quality and established payment processes, with no instances of receivables default since the start of their cooperation [1]